There are two new polls out tonight. ComRes’s monthly online poll for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror has topline figures of CON 32%(nc), LAB 42%(+1), LDEM 9%(-2), UKIP 8%(+1). Changes are from ComRes’s last online poll a month ago and do not show any significant change, although it is worth noting that this is the first time that ComRes have shown the Lib Dems slipping into single figures, and equals their highest for UKIP.

Meanwhile YouGov’s weekly poll for the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 44%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 8%. Very similar figures to ComRes, and continuing to show the twelve point Labour lead that YouGov have been showing most of this week.


66 Responses to “New ComRes and YouGov polls”

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  1. @Colin – “Like VC’s outburst I think it will come back to bite him.”

    From my vantage point, I rather suspect not. Given the steady trickle of arrests at The Sun (little noticed amidst all the Leveson hullaballoo) and evidence now from three former PM’s or very senior advisers that Murdoch lies on oath, my thinking is currently that there is a good chance News Corp will be asked to limit or even extinguish their holdings in BSkyB under the fit and proper persons test. Newspaper circulation is declining anyway, and James is apparently keen to get out of these, so it’s conceivable that the UK won’t have any Murdoch media influence in the not too distant future.

    One thing that people are commonly forgetting when stating that the government/Murdoch’s have got through Leveson without any real damage, is that Leveson isn’t touching any evidence that could be involved in criminal proceedings. Posters were exchanging comments yesterday about ‘missing’ texts that NI claimed the police have retained, but there will be a mass of evidence left undisturbed by Leveson, and I doubt News Corp will come out of this without serious reputational damage, with long running legal and business ramifications both here and in the states.

  2. @Smukesh

    “The Independent on Sunday has produced a `Ed Miliband` special edition or close to it”

    There is also some very interesting analysis in the IoS of the recent ComRes poll showing a 10% Labour lead. Anthony may well be intending to share some of the micro-detail with us later but, just in case he omits to do so, here are some of the highlights. George Osborne needs to look away at this point!

    “55 per cent of people – including more than a third of those who voted Tory in 2010 – agreed that the Chancellor was “too posh to understand the financial pressures on ordinary people”. Almost six out of 10 said they believed Mr Osborne, a millionaire, was “out of touch with the public”. Just over half of the 2,014 people interviewed agreed that the Chancellor “comes across as arrogant” and almost half of those surveyed believed he had made too many mistakes to be taken seriously. Less than a third saw him as “an able politician”, and barely a quarter agreed that he was “doing a good job in difficult times”.

    This is devastating stuff indeed and I wonder if Cameron may well be thinking of asking his former strategist-in-chief to spend a little more time with his family when he next re-shuffles his Cabinet. Gove as new Chancellor, perhaps?

    I was also interested in the Miliband interview in the IoS too. He is quoted as saying that he believes “Cameron is the last gasp of the old guard’. Whether this is true or not, who knows, but the Labour leader seems to be coming up with a few zingers these days, doesn’t he? A new scriptwriter on board, maybe?

  3. Iceman

    Despite our political difference, yours was a sensible post on Scottish politics. It all depends on the referendum, and the only election between now and then are the Euros.

    As to the referendum itself, the most important issue will be the economic one, and whether the Scottish economy is better in or out.

    More broadly, we have all known for a long time that the constitutional position around which two thirds of Scots can coalesce is “Devo-Max”. Whichever side of the argument can produce a solution closest to that will have a distinct advantage.

  4. `I wonder if Cameron may well be thinking of asking his former strategist-in-chief to spend a little more time with his family `

    In the Com-Res poll,more people believe that Osborne is a better political strategist(-8) than chancellor(-20`s) and that`s my impression too…He`ll probably serve the Tory party better if he is shifted to another office of state where he concentrate on political strategy more…But it will be a big climbdown for Cameron`s close friend and number 2.

  5. Alec

    “Complacent” and “out of touch” we’re the words that came to my mind when reading TM’s blog. Comparisons with Bush/Dukakis are stretched to say the least. Whatever the personalities and backgrounds of the Preseidential candidates, it was the economy wot won it, stupid. The US economy had been growing strongly for 6 years. Unemployment was at its lowest for 16 years. A cross between Kennedy, Roosvelt and Jesus Christ wouldn’t have won for the Democrats.

    My advice to the clever strategising Tory boys and girls would be to get the economy growing. They’ll walk 15 if they do. Otherwise they’ll lose. It’s no more complex than that.

  6. The quote was from `CROSSBAT11`

  7. Alec

    “if I were a Tory strategist I would have a horrible nagging doubt about focussing on attacking ED”

    I think you are right that a US style personality destruction campaign won’t hack it and will not be seen favourably by voters- especially if the economy has continued to bounce along the bottom with circa negative/ tiny growth.

    However I have never had any doubt that both Ed and Labour will take a hit in the “Presidential glare” of a GE campaign once it has started.

    Additionally if the Tories were clever they would currently be hammering away at the lack of Labour detailed policies and then- closer to the election- focus in on what Labour had finally set out with clarity.

    Policies never satisfy everyone who erstwhile had been angrily giving your non-government empty blank canvas their opinion poll support.

    It is actually very easy as a leader of the opposition to snipe at an appallingly inefficient government that provides you weekly with a supply of useful ammunition and that makes continuous mistakes (largely for ill thought out ideological reasons) and has an increasingly unpopular leader. Dave did it very effectively remember between 2007 and 2010 (arguably more effectively than Ed is currently)…..and look at the rubbish eventual result he managed to secure!

    IMHO the next GE is most likely going to be a hung parliament: it has looked like that to me since the summer of 2010 and the quite predictable polling patterns since then have done nothing to shatter that perception.

  8. Extremely interesting – http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9336293/UK-plc-turns-against-Europe.html

    The article commences thus; “In a stark warning to the Government that any economic union as a result of the eurozone crisis could have negative effects on the UK, the director general of the British Chambers of Commerce, John Longworth, said that the balance of advantages of the single market were being damaged by the weight of regulation.
    In a survey of 7,500 businesses to be released tomorrow, the BCC found that 35pc of all exporters believe that Europe should be a free trade area without the Brussels-led social legislation that many feel hamper their business.”

    While the argument from the BCC is from a fairly traditional right leaning viewpoint, the idea that a two speed Europe will do the opposite of what Germany and France wish and lead to a break up, is something I have been flagging up for a while now.

    I really do think that the reaction to the EZ crisis has put the whole nature of the EU up in the air. Posters who confidently claim UKIP to be irrelevant are in my view swimming against the tide, and I can see a revolution in thinking on the EU starting to boil up. Business leaders have traditionally been some of the biggest supporters of EU membership, but strange things are now happening beneath the surface.

  9. @ROB SHEFFIELD
    `Dave did it very effectively remember between 2007 and 2010 (arguably more effectively than Ed is currently)`

    He had some help in doing that ofcourse and he`s paying the price for seeking and securing that help.

  10. New Ipsos-MORI poll on same-sex marriage in Scotland reported here

    http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2012/06/17/poll-record-support-for-equal-marriage-in-scotland/

    “64% of Scots supported equal marriage, with only 26% remaining opposed. In addition, the survey finds that 68% believe that religious organisations should be given the right to marry gay couples, if they want to, with only 21% opposed.

    This is the first major survey on equal marriage since 2010.

    The poll also found that the support increased significantly among women and younger people (below 55 years of age), with 70% of the former, and 76% of the latter favouring a change in the law.

    The news comes just days after a major survey of MSPs found that at least 69 out of the 129 members have pledged support to marriage equality, which meant that, even if introduced as a private members’ bill, the legislation would pass through easily. Three more MSPs have since added their support to the measure.”

  11. Alec – be wary. A lot of business has always been very eurosceptic anyway – back in the 1990s I think you had some business organisations supporting a single currency, others very much opposed, commissioning polls with different balances of small, medium and large companies showing different things. The tendency is for big businesses that rely on exports and international trade to be pro european, and smaller companies to be more sceptical.

  12. http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/questions-raised-over-whether-james-887745

    Adds to my earlier post that lots of stuff about NI has yet to see the light of day.

  13. @Chrislane 1945
    That is what happened over Adoption Agencies, so they closed.

    —————————————————————————-

    That may well be the case in Bournemouth, but up here in Manchester they dropped “Catholic” from the agency name and carried on.

    In any case, no same sex couple, with any nouse, would approach a Catholic agency if they wanted to adopt. Those that did would be gently steered to the local authority.

    Manchester, who I used to work for, has a good record for placing children with same sex adopters. Couples come from far and wide because they know they will be treated fairly. And it means difficult to place children have a chance of a loving, stable home

  14. OldNat

    Details of the Ipsos-MORI survey are here:

    http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/2978/Majority-of-Scots-support-gay-marriage.aspx

    There’s a slide show but no tables – or rather they’ve also loaded the slideshow where the tables should be[1].

    Incidentally 21% disagreed (11% strongly) that “religious organisations should have the right to decide for themselves whether or not to conduct same-sex marriages”. Presumably this means that over a fifth of Scots should be forced to conduct gay marriages. I begin to get the impression that a lot people are so fed up with the religious whinging on about imaginary persecutions, that they’re thinking “yeah – let’s show them what persecution is”.[2]

    [1] They were probably all out celebrating being used in a solution to an Araucaria crossword in the Guardian – there’s fame for you.

    [2] Fun fact (courtesy of Lallands Peat Worrier) – the second most popular ‘religious’ denomination conducting weddings in Scotland (after the Church of Scotland) is not the (Roman) Catholics but the Humanists.

  15. ROGER MEXICO

    Thanks

    I’m a great fan of Lallands Peat Worrier. Irreverence is greatly to be praised!

  16. Can’t see the Tories stooping so low as the Willie Horton ad.

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