The Conservatives brief post-Jubilee recovery seems to have passed. After a month of YouGov’s Labour leads averaging at twelve points last week we saw three polls in a row with leads down into single figures, enough to suggest it was more than mere sample variation.

However, today’s poll has Labour’s lead springing right back up again, with topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 45%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 9%. While it’s possible that this lead could be an outlier and we’ll see smaller leads again tomorrow, it makes a lot of sense that the lead should return to its pre-Jubilee position. The fact that there were some Jubilee celebrations may have made people feel generally better about the ways things are going or taken minds off the government’s problems, but the fundementals hadn’t changed.


213 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 31, LAB 45, LD 9, UKIP 9”

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  1. Neil A probably knows better about this, than me, but that can’t be right, surely?

  2. HANNAH.
    Hello!

    Which clauses in my totally un scientific analysis are wrong do you think? Thanks!

  3. @CHRISLANE1945

    Sorry to hear about the burglary. I am just as surprised by what the police told you about the phone calls. The calls could provide valuable information to catch the thieves. Maybe they don’t have the resources to devote to petty crimes due to the cutbacks.

  4. PAULCROFT……….Then no doubt you will be aware that Tomas Rosicky plays classical guitar……..he’s Captaining the Czech team against Greece at the moment. :-)

  5. Ken

    Given the quality of the Greek football, Rosicky probably has time to play his guitar during the game!

  6. LIZ H.
    Many thanks, I too am a 10k runner, in training run later.

    Chablis on hold!

  7. OLDNAT………..The Greek defence puts me in mind of their tax regime, full of holes. :-)

  8. @chrislane1945

    The taxi line of enquiry should be worth following up… taxis outnumber patrol cars by some considerable margin. Collectively the networks have very in depth local knowledge, keep records, and when the chips are down side with the forces of law and order.

  9. BILLY BOB.
    Many thanks!

    We did phone the company, who would not give information to us.

  10. Ken

    :-)

  11. On another topic.

    It seems as if the Government is facing a bit of a storm from the CofE and the catholic church over gay marriage.

    Theologically, ‘marriage’ is between one woman and one man for life. So there is a clah between ‘canon law’ and statute law.

  12. @CHRISLANE1945

    I think the 9% is the 9 people out of 100 who would vote LibDem if there had been a General election today. And if that 9% were to drift away from the LibDems (given that they have stayed this far into the game I can not see that happening) I think on past evidence we would expect a lot of them to go to Labour. Remember a bigger proportion of those who say they would vote LIbDem disapprove of the governments record so far. So fertile ground for Labour to pick up votes there.

  13. CHRISLANE1945

    Some of the philosophical issues surrounding the same-sex marriage proposal in Scotland, the arguments of the Catholic Church, and the political marginalisation of the anti same-sex marriage view, are explored here

    http://lallandspeatworrier.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/same-sex-marriage-scotlands-fractured.html

  14. Chrislane,
    YouGov is currently giving the LibDems and UKIP a total of 18%. You appear to be suggesting that in 2015 – if we have to wait that long – more than half of that will disappear to the advantage of the Tories..Given that UKIP exceeded 3% in 2010 it seems unlikely they will fail to win 4% next time. I also find it improbable that the LibDems will end up polling less than the circa 9% being recorded at the moment. To do so would imply the worst GE performance ever achieved by the LibDems or their Liberal predecessors since fielding a full slate of candidates since 1974
    I will be very surprised if the two parties fail to poll 15% between them.

  15. Really disappointed with my old party today. How are they abstaining from the Hunt vote? When I was a member, one of the main aims of Liberal Youth members was always, always a free and transparent press. Murdoch used to be a dirty word. It was one of the things that meant I was Liberal Democrat and not Labour in my early days – the Blair / Murdoch relationship wasn’t something I could tolerate. All that seems to have gone out the window…

  16. @TopHat
    I agree – what on earth is Clegg playing at? Take away the LDs and the Conservatives have a majority in the Commons. So abstention means effectively vetoing a proper independent investigation into Hunt’s conduct and I have no doubt it will be portrayed thus when the vote is lost tomorrow.

  17. @TOP HAT
    `Really disappointed with my old party today.`

    I am disappointed too…Beats me why a party leader wants to abandon all principles to the wind…But I think it would make it harder for former LD`s like yourself to return at the next election thus reducing the swingback phenomenon,that several posters swear by.

  18. From the Press Association tonight:
    “David Cameron defied repeated calls from Nick Clegg to launch a sleaze probe into Culture Secretary Jeremy Hunt’s handling of the BSkyB bid, it has been revealed. The Liberal Democrat leader believes the independent adviser on ministerial interests, Sir Alex Allan, should be brought in to consider the case.”

    But, faced with an opportunity for his party to vote in the Commons for Sir Alex Allan to do precisely that, Clegg instead steers his MPs onto a course that will guarantee the vote to be lost. How weak is that?

  19. @TOP HAT

    From the Independent story “Nick Clegg tells MPs not to back Tories in vote calling for Jeremy Hunt to be referred to ministerial standards watchdog” I can’t work out whether Clegg has told them to abstain or allowed them to vote against? Can anyone put me right?

    If Clegg has told them to abstain I can see their VI going down.

  20. Enough please, it’s not a venue for you all to express your own opinions about what politicians do (not you Gary, who actually did talk about the effect on public opinion)

  21. Disillusioned LD’s, I think that Clegg should be commended for realising that sometimes, for the greater good, it is necessary to rise above party politics. One of the reasons that we are in such trouble at the moment was the last government’s inability to see beyond party politics. Labour didn’t do reality, and therefore, didn’t recognise the need for sacrifice, the Coalition is not seeking to be popular, it is managing an inherited disaster, Clegg understands this and is brave enough, and has integrity enough, to put popularity to one side in the country’s interest, even though it could cost him votes, admirable, in my opinion. :-)

  22. Ken

    Your recognition of how, in human nature, good always triumphs over evil, is a testament to the true nobility of your soul. :-)

  23. Ken – please don’t continue it. It takes two sides to have a silly partisan argument.

  24. AW………..Sorry, I’m just observing. :-)

  25. OLDNAT……………I try to lead by example. :-) The polls indicate the public’s resistance to change, but sacrifice is necessary and justifiable in these extremely trying times. :-)

  26. GRAHAM.
    Good Evening, after some evening teaching for me.

    I think your argument that the Liberal Democrat vote will be higher in 2015 than the 1974 voting for the old Liberal Party is questionable now.

  27. Anthony – Apologies for stating my strongly held opinions on the issue.

    Is it in order to state here the wording of the motion which is before the House tomorrow, leaving people to judge for themselves the decision of the LDs not to support it?

    It says:
    “That this House believes that the Secretary of State for Culture Olympics, Media and Sport should be referred to the Independent Adviser on Ministers’ Interests to investigate whether he breached paragraph 1.2c (giving accurate and truthful information to Parliament) and paragraph 3.3 (responsibility for his special adviser) of the Ministerial Code.”

  28. Nick Clegg is giving David Cameron the opportunity to refer Hunt to Sir Allan (& ‘blame’ the LDs for it) before the Labour motion reaches the house.

    Polling, as far as I can remember, had the majority of the public believing Hunt should resign.
    8-)

  29. @AW
    `(not you Gary, who actually did talk about the effect on public opinion)`

    I suspect people would think I had done a bit of both there.

  30. CHRISLANE1945……….I would remind you that we are not even halfway into term yet, why are people assuming that today’s polling will reflect the 2015 electoral result. Some of the comments on here are more astrological than psephological, Russell Grant would be proud ! :-)

  31. @KEN

    You can visit Russell Grant’s site. But you are right we do tend to extrapolate the 2015 from today’s polling, when anything could happen between now and then. As Harold Wilson said, “A week is a long time in politics”. So 3 years is a very long time in politics.

  32. There was me convinced the LD vote share almost certainly could not possibly go lower than around 8%. Probably abstention is about all NC can do in the circumstances.

    It might be difficult to detect any downward motion from 8% that’s not swallowed up by MOE and random noise. We’ll see what the public makes of it all soon enough.

  33. GARY GATTER….I can understand the fascination with the public’s opinion of current events, I can also see how that would have an influence on their voting intention, however, surely we should appreciate the potential for change, and since we have no idea at all what will cause that change, we should simply accept that today’s polling reflects only today, and not speculate on the unknown. I’m just as interested as anyone in the public mood, but I won’t get excited about its effect on an election 3 yrs hence. :-)

  34. GARY.
    I agree of course. 2 years and 11 months is a long way from the end of the race.

    However, General Elections are won and lost over the long term battles I think.

  35. Latest YouGov/The Sun results 12th June CON 33%, LAB 43%, LD 8%, UKIP 8%; APP -35

  36. Ken/Gary

    Indeed. In January 2010, polling suggested a small Tory majority in the UK election of that year. IIRC, a significant Tory majority was suggested by polling.

    Voters’ minds are focussed by an imminent election and the prospect of having a role in selecting the least incompetent of the political choices on offer.

  37. Nick’s sense of smell wasn’t up to much-no “landslide” in sight tonight.

    Well done Poland-you played some great football & worked your socks off.
    Hope they can go through.

  38. The landslide will be when the next general election is held.

  39. A 10% Labour lead, so given yesterday’s 14% it looks like 12% is holding. The -35 approval seems to be quite constant no what’re where the moe goes!

  40. I simply cannot see the Euro surviving, Spanish 10yr bonds hit 6.82 today, and they’re trousering E100billion, has the Euro world gorn mad ? They’re kicking the can down the road again, snag is, they’re in a cul-de-sac. :-)

  41. @ChrisLane 1945

    Only just dipped into the thread and I’m very sorry to hear about the recent burglary of your home. I hope you’re able to return to some sort of normality very soon and, as Amber Star rightly says, I wouldn’t have posted something as critical as I did if I’d realised you had undergone such a distressing experience.

    Apologies and all the best. I disagree with some of what you say from time to time, but you seem a very decent fellow. Regards to you and your family.

  42. @COLIN
    `no “landslide” in sight tonight`

    Actually,entering the above figures into the Swingometer gives Labour a majority of 108,but point taken

  43. NICKP………….In the spirit of this site, I agree with you, however, the landslide might not be the type that you expect. :-)

  44. By the way, Kenny-boy, long may Ashley Cole hold that Englamd left back spot.

  45. NICKP…………..Well said, Ashley and the boys, led by Roy of the Rovers, will spring a surprise ! :-)

  46. CROSSBAT11.
    many thanks!

    No need to worry about the debate here,

    The main trauma from which I am in recovery still is the last second Man City goal.

  47. Very parochial comment here tonight while all France is in thrall to the President’s partner’s tweet supporting the dissident PS member Falorni against his ex-wife S.Royal next Sunday, the mother of his 4 children, whom he had just supported by asking Falorni to stand down.

  48. Ken,

    Agreed.

    The only way out for eurozone sovereigns is to let their banks fail without getting involved. But their politicians are too scared to do it. So Spain is on its way down the death spiral despite Rajoy insisting previously there would be no bailouts.

    The effect on UK politics is going to be massive… hard to say exactly how, though.

  49. @ken – I see the carnage in Europe with some trepidation, but also some remote sense of hope. Essentially, the ‘headbangers’ who have always been highly critical of all things EU, have in many ways been vindicated.

    What is becoming increasingly clear is that the chosen path of the EZ will, in my view, accelerate the break up of the EU as it is currently constituted. This may or may not be a good thing, but does give me cause for limited hope that a better EU can be built from the wreckage.

    The assumption that full fiscal union in the EZ will stabilise the EU is for the birds. I doubt such a solution would stabilise the EZ itself in the long term, as I see it as a recipe for intra nation political tensions, when democratic national populations realise how little authority they are left with, and with these tensions being most apparent at times of hardship, this path opens up opportunities for the growth of nationalist right wing politics – strong enough already in many parts of the EU.

    For the rest of the EU, fiscal integration in the EZ means a two speed Europe. In my view, this won’t bind us together, but will open an avenue for departure.

    With every day the credibility of the EU declines. It is very hard to see how they can ever project a united front with a semblance of competence, and the crisis has demonstrated beyond question the inadequacies and weaknesses of the EU leadership and decision making process. It simply isn’t up to the job,

  50. X-Breaks for tonight’s poll look more sensible than yesterday’s.

    The important thing I think is that Labour have not dropped below 40% even with all the Jubilee-ing.
    8-)

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