The Conservatives brief post-Jubilee recovery seems to have passed. After a month of YouGov’s Labour leads averaging at twelve points last week we saw three polls in a row with leads down into single figures, enough to suggest it was more than mere sample variation.

However, today’s poll has Labour’s lead springing right back up again, with topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 45%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 9%. While it’s possible that this lead could be an outlier and we’ll see smaller leads again tomorrow, it makes a lot of sense that the lead should return to its pre-Jubilee position. The fact that there were some Jubilee celebrations may have made people feel generally better about the ways things are going or taken minds off the government’s problems, but the fundementals hadn’t changed.


213 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 31, LAB 45, LD 9, UKIP 9”

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  1. Ipsos Mori poll indicating 47% don’t like Osborne, (inc 31% of Tories) and that Ball’s is preferred as Chancellor by 37/28.

    No further details.

  2. @JAYBLANC
    `I can’t possible imagine why I subconsciously changed Jeremy Hunt’s first initial there.`

    Lol…Because the PM compared Hunt`s case to that of Chris Huhne?

  3. I wonder how much damage the Hunt debacle will continue to inflict upon VI?

    Yes, Cameron can keep insisting there is no case to answer and it is for hime to decide. But even many Tories can see it is just technicalities. He should have been investigated and every time the subject comes up the more credibility(and votes) leaks away.

    Below 30% again this week? But of course Hunt will survive…and every time he appears more votes will leak away.

  4. NickP – that is based on the assumption that is it making any difference at all to voting intention.

    I do try to consistently warn against thinking along the lines of

    (1) The polls have shown a movement of X
    (2) I care a lot about issue Y
    (3) Therefore issue Y has lead to movement X

    It is not possible to attribute movements in voting intention to particular events with 100% confidence, so one should always be very careful about over-egging the importance of one’s own pet subjects and assuming they have great salience when they may not.

    The best we can normally do is infer some sort of correlation from timings – the shift in the polls towards Labour leads of 10 points or so corresponded fairly closely with the budget, to 12 points or so fairly closely with the local elections. I suspect the biggest impact of the Hunt affair is to feed into the general air of “omnishables”, which I think has been a significant factor in the government’s polling problems over the last few months.

  5. My opinion is the two biggest factors are the 5% cut in tax for the rich and the Murdoch affair. I believe there are polls showing a huge majority were against the higher eaners’ tax cut and smilar majorities thought Hunt should resign.

    How much those factors feed into VI are a matter of conjecture. But I don’t believe the pasty tax had much effect!

  6. NickP – be careful though, suppose/oppose polls only show support or opposition. They don’t measure salience of an issue.

    To take the pasty tax as an example, a majority of people thought that there shouldn’t be more tax on pasties. It doesn’t follow that they thought it was a particularly important issue or that it would influence their voting intention.

    The same applies to every other issue, and we should always be careful of assuming that an issue that is very important inside the world of Westminster has relevance to those outside it.

  7. @AW
    `I suspect the biggest impact of the Hunt affair is to feed into the general air of “omnishables”`

    The honourable gentleman is absolutely right ofcourse…oops,watching too much HOC footage.

  8. I hear Ipsos-Mori poll is out in the Standard…Does anyone know the figures?

  9. I suspect that the bigger impact of the Hunt affair isn’t directly on VI – it’s far too narrow and technical an issue for that. Rather, every day there are news stories and headlines about this, it means less space for good news stories.

    Governments get diverted and knocked off balance by news, and end up responding to stories rather than ‘controlling the grid’, to use a New Labourism. Eventually too much of this seems to lead to tired and punch drunk government who seem no longer capable of seizing the initiative. We’re a long way from that point now (although Tories are much more panicky as a whole in this era than in days past) but it still hurts that they can’t present a more positive image, even if the ‘scandal’ is relatively boring and uninteresting to most voters.

  10. On the long train back after a holiday in Penzance. If my experience is anything to go by the tourism industry in West Cornwall and Scilly is doing pretty handily despite the recession.

    I think the PM is being very stubborn about Hunt, and to the PM’s own detriment. The simple solutiom is to say there will be an inquiry once Leveson finishes his and reports back. Any other approach leaves the PM looking like Canute.

  11. IPSOS-MORI

    Conservatives’ lowest standing since September 2007

    CON 31 (-2); LAB 40 (-3); LIB DEM 10 (+1)

  12. @CLOUD SPOTTER

    IPSOS-MORI have CON 31; LAB 40; LIB DEM 10. A 9% Labour lead, but this is for those who are certain to vote.

    The figures excluding likelihood to vote are CON 29; LAB 43; LIB DEM 11. A 14% Labour lead, very much in line with what YouGov are showing.

  13. @Myself

    Or have I misunderstood the tables?

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