The Conservatives brief post-Jubilee recovery seems to have passed. After a month of YouGov’s Labour leads averaging at twelve points last week we saw three polls in a row with leads down into single figures, enough to suggest it was more than mere sample variation.
However, today’s poll has Labour’s lead springing right back up again, with topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 45%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 9%. While it’s possible that this lead could be an outlier and we’ll see smaller leads again tomorrow, it makes a lot of sense that the lead should return to its pre-Jubilee position. The fact that there were some Jubilee celebrations may have made people feel generally better about the ways things are going or taken minds off the government’s problems, but the fundementals hadn’t changed.