There are two new polls in the Sunday papers. YouGov’s weekly poll in the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 42%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 9%. So far all three YouGov polls since the Jubilee weekend have shown Labour’s lead dropping into single figures, having been averaging at around 12 points before the Jubilee.

Meanwhile Angus Reid have a new poll in the Express, with topline figures of CON 29%(nc), LAB 43%(-2), LDEM 9%(nc), UKIP 9%(+1) – changes are from Angus Reid’s last poll at the end of May. Angus Reid tend to show the biggest Labour leads of all the pollsters (a reverse from the last Parliament, when they showed the biggest Conservative leads), so while the 14 point Labour lead is large, it is actually marginally smaller than the record 16 point lead they were showing last time round.


183 Responses to “New YouGov and Angus Reid polls”

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  1. Sorry I didn’t respond sooner to any of your comments. Had my training program class today and then was out at Pride and was busy enjoying Pride events all tonight (well I’ll be doing so all weekend).

    @ Phil

    “Having spent some time in Alberta in April I can authoritatively assure you that Canadians would be most offended at that remark, most for different reasons than you might imagine! It was hard not to escape the wall to wall coverage of the early stages of the Stanley Cup, and at one point I naiively asked why our Canadian hosts were rooting for Vancouver to lose to a US team, only to be regaled by the tales of their last match disaster last year and the riots that followed. The upshot being that Canadians (outside BC) are basically so eager to be liked that they’re prepared to disown one of their teams that brings opprobrium on their nation. Such was the animosity that I got the impression that if the US wanted to conclude their unfinished business of 1812 and annex British Columbia they might be given it on a plate by the rest of Canada.

    It’s all the more ironic given the thuggery that passes for ice hockey, surely the only game in which players are selected solely for their ability to get a better player of the opposing team sent off.”

    I think Albertans are a little bit different from other Canadians. I think they’re almost as right wing as those in the bible belt. I’m not a hockey fan really. It’s probably one of the whitest sports I’ve ever seen in both the fanbase and the players. But I don’t dislike it and I want my hometown team to win. (They’re currently losing right now). In terms of the thuggery, hockey is odd in that it’s one of the few sports where the violence is pretty much all within the game and not amongst the fans. That is in total contrast to just about every other sport I can think of where it’s rare for players to physically fight each other but fans have killed each other in rivalries. Or started riots to celebrate victories (which I find totally embarassing).

    @ Peter Cairns

    “As a Scot I count myself lucky to live in an advanced country that has a mild climate and a small population. We can grow more than we consume and export the surplus and the same with energy.”

    Advanced country? Yes. Small in population that exports more than it consumes and is a leader in financial services and technology sectors? Yes. Mild climate? Um…not so sure about that one.

    @ Virgilio

    “I understand the misery of the situation you describe, in France as well there are some constituencies where two right-wing candidates (usually an official UMP and a dissident one, or, in some cases an UMP and a FN) go to the runoff. Fortunately I have never voted in such a case scenario, but it is a tough choice for socialist and leftist voters. Usually they vote for the UMP where it faces the FN (as we did all in the infamous PE of 2002) and for the dissidents vs the UMP, but there also local particularities to be considered, and of course some of the center-left voters choose to abstain or vote blank. Last Sunday I was afraid myself to be in such a situation, because all estimations for the 8th constituency of French abroad gave the UMP candidate first, the dissident right-winger second and the socialist third (they are all French-Israeli bi-nationals), but this prediction did not come through, turnout in Israel (were resides the greatest number of French citizens in comparison to other Southern European countries) was extremely low, and so it was the other countries of the constituency (Italy, Greece, Turkey, Cyprus, Malta) that determined the result, and there the socialist was first (marginally in Cyprus, very clearly in Italy and Greece and overwhelmingly in Turkey) and the UMP second. So in June 17 the Socialist candidate will be elected, since almost all the eliminated candidates, including the independent right-winger, took position in her favor. I also learn that in my “original” constituency in Paris (where my vote was normally counted before the creation of the 11 seats abroad last year) the Socialist-Green alliance is clearly ahead.”

    Well I really have never faced the scenario either. I mean in my Congressional seat, I’m not going to even have a Republican to vote for this year in the general election as I’ll have a choice between an incumbent Democrat and a Decline to State (Independent) candidate. In a few other neighboring Congressional Districts, voters will have this same choice or they’ll be choosing between Democrats. In my Assembly seat, I will choose between a Democrat and a Republican in the general. But my Assemblywoman, who received 70.8% of the vote in the primary, is probably going to receive close to 90% of the vote (if she doesn’t surpass it) against the Republican.

  2. @ Old Nat

    “You can’t tell that from the Scottish cross-breaks which aren’t matched to the Scottish demographics. Successive Scots samples aren’t necessarily measuring the same sort of people as each other.”

    Yeah, agreed. The Scottish subsamples are not reliable indicators. I tend to doubt the Jubillee would dent the SNP.

    Btw, one of my favorite Scottish (or ex-Scottish since he’s now a naturalized U.S. citizen) politicians threw beads at me today in the parade. Very exciting. I managed to ultimately round up like 15 or so different sets of beads from various marchers in the parade (before giving away some) but at first, my hand eye coordination was way off and I kept missing things that various marchers and people on floats were throwing at me. But after two or three tries, I finally got my coordination back and began catching stuff. Now normally I throw this junk out but one set of beads that one of the politicians threw at me was red, white, and blue colored so I think I’m going to hang on to it.

  3. @neil A “Europe is a different issue – I detect a fairly concerted attempt by the Tory spin machine to mould the EZ crisis into a vote-winning narrative.”

    Agreed. I don’t think here we are looking so much at the politics of it though, rather than the economics. Osborne has already stated yesterday that the EZ crisis has killed the UK recovery. Despite the fact that UK growth is worse than the EZ, we started to decline before the crisis broke, and the EZ were only enacting austerity policies Osborne called for it doesn’t matter – politics is about narrative, not fact.

    How this plays politically will be interesting. It gives Osborne more excuses for what’s likely to come in the UK, and while it might not stop poor VI numbers for the Tories, it might well help prevent Labour’s score from solidifying.

    What is interesting though is whether voters tire of this and realise that it’s actually a result of cutting too far and too fast on a continental scale. Will Labour get any credit for correctly warning what would happen?

    Even Obama now appears to be a Ballsian, yesterday saying publicly there had been ‘too much austerity too quickly’.

  4. Looks like the labour lead has survived the hoped-for ‘feel-good’ effect of the jubilee.

    One wonders how the PM’s appearance at the Levenson enquiry will affect things. I suspect it is seen by the tories as a splendid PR platform for Cameron to show his presentational skills, but an enquiry is not the same as PMQT. It could all go horribly wrong.

  5. Good Morning all.
    IMO, as we say, the Tories remain well placed for the second half of the long run to the next GE. The Lib Dem VI seems very high, and the UKIP vote is soft, I think.

    Hanc igitur, as we say, some of us on Sundays, the Labour Party cannot be very confident, but a dead heat is fairly likely.

  6. “The Lib Dem VI seems very high, and the UKIP vote is soft, I think”

    ??

  7. “Spanish Finance Minister Luis de Guindos told a news conference that the European Union will grant Spain a loan of up to €100 billion ($125 billion) that the government will funnel to banks that need capital. Euro-zone finance ministers said they welcomed the Spanish step, saying the sum “must cover estimated capital requirements with an additional safety margin.”

    Mr. de Guindos said “The Spanish government is determined to do its best to protect the stability of the euro.”
    He added that the conditions attached to the loans “will be imposed to banks, not to Spanish society, nor to its fiscal or economic policy.”

    WSJ

    I love that last comment-as if the current fiscal policy of Spain is not a function of Spain’s mad property development binge.

    And these “conditions” to be imposed on Spanish Banks-when is someone going to ask why they were not imposed when those banks were fuelling the real estate bubble, and financing the pet projects of local politicians?

    Yesterday I posted a link to a Guardian article about the Spanish regional bank disaster. The writer concluded with this :-

    “Attempts to investigate Bankia have been blocked by the People’s party in the national parliament and the Madrid regional assembly, but Spain’s attorney general has admitted that it is under investigation. Twelve of the 45 cajas that existed three years ago are reportedly being looked at by anti-corruption investigators.

    On Thursday, the Catalan parliament agreed to set up a committee to look at banking problems as a whole.

    “If we really knew the truth about Bankia and the other cajas, the two big parties – the People’s party and the socialists – would explode,” said Arsenio Escolar, editor of the 20 Minutos newspaper.”

  8. JIM
    Good Morning.
    As someone pointed out on a recent thread, my too-ott repeated analysis of the Liberal Democrat VI in the polls may have been proven correct, as shown by AW’s analysis of the May Elections in London.

    Thus the Lib Dem 7% to 9% Vi in the polls look like outliers.

    I also think the uKIP vote will go to the Tories in the main.

  9. CROSSBAT11

    @”I think right wing politicians (in the case of the Jubilee) ……..misread, either deliberately or innocently, the true nature of what is going on when these respective celebrations take place.”

    If they read the YouGov Poll of 7-8 June 2012, they wouldn’t-assuming that they had done so in the first place.

  10. Change in VI since last week’s YouGov/Times –
    Con – 34 (+2)
    Lab – 42 (nc)
    LD – 7 (-1)
    UKIP – 9 (+2)
    Approval -35 (+1)

    So we should expect some bounce to Cameron’s approval ratings? (In line with VI)
    Cameron -23 (+3)
    Miliband -26 (+2)
    Clegg -54 (+1)
    So all within MOE, but Cameron extending the gap from +2 to +3.

    Monarchy vs Elected Head of state
    Monarchy – 75 (+2)
    Elected – 15 (-3)
    I do wonder what would happen if you prompted for an elected monarchy, that the Windsors could participate in.

    Leaving aside your views of the Monarchy as a whole, do you think the Queen has done a good job?
    Good – 87 (+1)
    Bad – 5 (nc)
    Net Approval +82 (+1)
    That’s the sort of approval rating that politicians can only dream of.

    Do you think Prince Charles will become a good King?
    Good – 46 (+9)
    Bad – 26 (-11)
    Net Approval +20 (+20)

    Who should succeed?
    Charles 44 (+6)
    William 38 (-6)
    There should be no monarch 12 (+1)

    Major Jubilee bounce for Charles.

  11. @ Jim,

    You are right – a temporary bounce in the feel good factor will definitely benefit the party of govt.

    That this bounce has merely reduced a sizeable Labour lead (to a still sizeable +8), shows that even in spite of a little temporary sip of the kool aid, many more people still feel disenchanted with the government than the “silent MINORITY” who say they will vote Tory.

  12. The whole point of an hereditary monarchy is that the general public have no say whatsoever in who becomes the next king/queen.

    Why on earth do pollsters waste time and money asking such pointless questions?

  13. YouGov tables are here:

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/4dpudidv4s/YG-Archives-Pol-ST-results-08-100612.pdf

    (someone’s been playing about with the layout so they look a bit odd)

    As ever the reliably unreliable under-25 sample is distorting things – 2% for the Lib Dems is too low and at 9% UKIP too high.

    The slight Tory revival is probably just an effect of the news blackout on non-Jubilious items – despite today’s figures UKIP may have lost a little to them through it – and the double Bank Holiday may have led to an enhanced BH effect as people used that to build longer breaks or do other things. We’ll have a better idea next week.

    To prove the point pages 3-10 of the tables are filled with questions about … guess what. And no other topic is asked about at all. Well there’s not much else going on in the world. (Actually as tingedfringe has pointed out a lot are repeated questions that show interesting changes or lack of them).

  14. @tingedfringe – “Major Jubilee bounce for Charles.”

    This drove me to check out tabloid coverage (the “orgy”, as CNN described it, did rather pass me by)… the odd picture of the Duke of Cambridge looking glum (“contemplating his duties as a future King”), outnumbered about 40:1 by pictures of Kate and Harry (“thick as thieves”). So perhaps a bit of a slump for Wills as well.

  15. woodsman

    The whole point of an hereditary monarchy is that the general public have no say whatsoever in who becomes the next king/queen.

    Why on earth do pollsters waste time and money asking such pointless questions?

    It isn’t a pointless question. YouGov panellists were asked Thinking about the future monarch, which of the following would you prefer? [my bold] They were being asked what they thought should happen not what would happen. The third option aside from Charles and William was “Neither – there should be no monarch after Queen
    Elizabeth II”. Technically the general public have even less say over that, yet no one would think asking if you wanted an end to monarchy was “pointless”

    Of course those who backed William (or a republic) may just have a good understanding of history and that “The British Constitution is what happens”. After all there have been previous instances when a legal King or Queen has been disposed of and replaced with a more acceptable candidate – most recently in 1936. The legal niceties are always sorted out and life goes on.

  16. RedRag – when I describe polls as blips I normally mean the change is no more than margin of error variation (basically, it’s not actually there).

    In this case, three polls in a row showing the same pattern suggests it is probably not just margin of error, there’s been a genuine movement.

    Of course, it’s perfectly possible for it is be a blip in the normal sense though – a genuine, but purely short-term effect. Given the most likely explanation for the change is the one explained by Adrian further up the thread (that the shift is due to a break from bad news stories, a departure from the omnishambles narrative that has taken hold over the last couple of months) this seems quite likely. The underlying picture hasn’t changed, so it’s reasonable to expect things to go back to how they were.

    The alternative is if the government are able to use the break in the narrative that the Jubilee provided to set out a more positive narrative and get things going well for a couple of weeks. The Leveson appearance by Cameron makes that pretty tricky though.

  17. @David Anthony

    “It really is disappointing that people are more likely to vote Tory, when they clearly didn’t in the past for good reason, because of a completely irrelevant jubilee that has nothing to do with government.”

    Not really surprising though. People moved away from the Conservatives when Labour were banging on about Hunt. That is past, and several u-turns have been made, and then a happy period occurs, reminding some what life is all about.

    While most wouldn’t change their vote for such reasons, some would. Perhaps it’s also a case of ‘no bad news this week’. Or not enough to bother the electorate.

  18. @Socalliberal

    Albertans are in the same discussion with the Southern US, though they don’t like to admit it and will get offended if the comparison arises. They want to have it both ways, fiscal conservatism and oil money, but also the idea that they are better than the US. They are a bit more socially moderate than the South, but I would say they are actually to the right of the south on many economic issues.

  19. @Jim

    “I’m also interested to the the details when the tables go up as to whether perhaps the jubilee dented SNP and some of those voters went to UKIP as their protest vote? I guess we will see soon enough.”

    Nothing so far. UKIP’s Scottish VI is usually in the 0-3%, with an occaional 4% and a very rare 6%. SNP’s vote hasn’t been consistent enough to gauge; Scottish crossbreaks etc.

  20. Those are interesting tables. In Scotland both the tories and Labour are on 31, and SNP are on 28.
    What is the MOE for Scotland?

  21. @OldNat

    “I don’t really relate to that idea of “love” for your country. It seems a rather over-hyped concept – and quite possibly containing ideas that one’s own country is, somehow, “better” than other countries.”

    Although I think the dividing line is gossamer thin, I genuinely believe that patriotism, in the sense of loving the place you live, is different from jingoism and xenophobia. They don’t have to be the same thing at all, although I’ve experienced people deluding themselves that they are being benignly patriotic when, in reality, they are actually expressing delusions of national, even ethnic, superiority and an underlying dislike of foreigners. UKIP and the right wing extremes of the Conservative Party are good resting homes for people who hold these sort of views.

  22. @Crossbat,

    I think the left is a pretty good home for people who hold views about the superiority of the British over the Americans, however…

  23. Looking at the age breakdowns on YouGov we have four groups covering a spread of seven years, fifteen years, ten years, and finally the 60+ group which probably includes people born in four different decades.

    Some companies have breakdowns for 60+, 70+ and 80+. Given that there must be a fair proportion of 60+ people who also have offspring in that age group, perhaps there is some lack of differentiation in lumping them all together.

  24. Roger M – “…replaced with a more acceptable candidate”

    Indeed.

    The questioning could all be part of a Murdochian attempt at Republicanism by stealth I suppose…..Undermine the next-in-line so much that the whole edifice collapses, or a more preferable candidate is chosen?

  25. I’d suggest this indicates that while the Labour Leads of 10+ were soft… They aren’t soft enough that the conservatives can continue on assuring themselves that it’s “Just midterm blues”.

    A near consistent lead since the start of last year is not “Just midterm blues”, and it does look like Cameron shot his bolt too early with the Veto-that-never was making him look impotent to influence a European crisis. Comments now from the Conservatives that they will protect the UK from any developments in Europe are just being ignored.

  26. SOCALLIBERAL,

    I’ve never been to Alberta but my sister in laws husband Larry was brought up on a farm near Calgary.

    They have a continental climate, boiling summers and freezing winters!

    Scotland has a mild climate!!!!

    Its colder and wetter than England but there is a big world out there beyond the English Channel.

    I thought coming from the States you would be the last person to see it from a UK point of view.

    Peter.

    Peter.

  27. Jay Blanc.

    I agree with you, I am happy to say.

    Come on the Boys in Green tonight.

    Meanwhile England brought in a reserve player for a mid table club- on football reasoning of course.

    On summer polls, Macmillan used to say the holidays were worth 50 seats, with a royal event thrown in.

  28. Anthony,

    The Scottish sunday Express is reporting a poll by Omni about Scotland and the EU.

    Are Omni part of the polling Council and do you no any of the details. I can”t find any data in the on line addition and I can’t bring myself to buy a paper copy.

    Peter.

  29. Some charts to add to the mix. The Scottish data from the most recent poll, is an outlier, in my opinion. The basic VI data is very abnormal. Compare the poll’s VI to the (median abs dev):

    Con 31 (16.7) !!!
    Lab 31 (39.8) !!!
    Lib 5 (6.0)
    SNP 28 (30.3)
    UKIP 2 (1.8)
    Green 2 (2.1)
    Other 1 (0.8)

    See how the MAD has changed over the past 30 polls:

    h ttp://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/404/scomad.png

    Regarding the UKIP fortunes across the country, we can see that UKIP has made gains over the past few months. This chart compares the most recent MAD data with data from the 27th March (first instance of 30-poll data). Note that UKIP in Scotland is not as pronounced. Also not that the scales on the graphs are different, so as to maximise viewing. The Con VI drops are equalised in size, but not in numbers!

    h ttp://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/26/madchg.png

    While my MAD data isn’t showing much of a reversal of the Con VI drops, the calendar month, with outliers are included, shows something different (June’s data is the rightmost column):

    UK & London : h ttp://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/850/uklon.png
    Rest of South & Mid/Wales: h ttp://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/705/soumid.png
    North & Scotland: h ttp://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/205/norsco.png

    I noticed quite quickly that DC’s leadership rating had overtaken EM’s rating (Clegg still languishes).

    h ttp://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/155/leaderm.png

    A jubilee bounce? I’m not so sure. The leadership rating data for Scotland is equally as misleading as the VI data.

    h ttp://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/341/scotlandu.png

    Contrast those leadership ratings with the other regions of the UK:

    h ttp://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/856/cameronn.png
    h ttp://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/269/miliband.png
    h ttp://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/819/clegg.png

    Finally, see how the government rating (as opposed to the leadership ratings) are also contrary to trends (note the most recent point of the chart):

    h ttp://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/684/scogov.png

    This has pushed up the average of the approval ratings for the calendar month:

    h ttp://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/338/approve.png

    So what’s the verdict? Either the Scots have suddenly taken to the COnservatives in a post-jubilee bounce, and/or the Scots have rejected the SNP in a unionist bounce (per the leaders’ ratings), or the survey was conducted in areas with more Conservative voters than usual (or some other form of outlier).

    Beware the Scottish crossbreaks! :)

    On the subject of outliers, see the entire poll’s outliers:

    h ttp://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/835/outlier.png

    So in spite of the SCottish VI being strange with respect to the Con and Lab VI, the sample is greater than average. I presume it is ‘Conservative heavy’ in this instance, but subsequent polls will hopefully give a better idea.

  30. Well, GO has now pitched in and blamed the UK economic woes on the Euro crisis.

    I wonder how this will play with joe public. I guess we’ll detect something in this week’s polls.

    It is to an extent carrying on the theme begun weeks ago by DC when urged Merkel et al to sort it out. And perhaps predated by the veto-that-wasn’t-actually-in-reality-when all-is-said-and-done-not-a-veto-at-all moment.

    The big prob for GO and DC is that joe public will see this as an attempt to deflect criticism of their economic policy.

    Can’t blame them for grabbing the moment.

    However, what the UK needs IMO is plan B – or put simply, anything to grow the economy.

  31. MIKEN

    @”he big prob for GO and DC is that joe public will see this as an attempt to deflect criticism of their economic policy.”

    Possibly……or he might be thinking hell’s bells Spain in a mess now; be thankful for small mercies……..or he might not be aware what GO says………..or he might just be concentrating on the football.

  32. Peter – judging by the sample size and dates, that is the same Angus Reid poll as in the Sunday Express.

    On Angus Reid tables they say at the bottom

    “UK Omni – date — Vision Critical”

    The Scottish writers must have mistaken that for the company name

  33. @Mike N – “The big prob for GO…”

    IpsosMORI currently have satisfaction with the chancellor at -30%… that is less satisfactory than Healey, Howe, Lawson, Major, Brown or Darling.

    He still has a way to go to compare with Lamont or Clarke, who respectively managed a -52% and a -53%:

    h
    ttp://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/poll.aspx?oItemID=38&view=wide

  34. @ Alec

    “Even Obama now appears to be a Ballsian, yesterday saying publicly there had been ‘too much austerity too quickly’.”

    I think Obama has been pretty much Keynesian this entire time. I don’t think he’s ever embraced austerity. However, he is now finally looking at the disastrous results in Europe and using that as a weapon. This is a good thing (for us anyway).

    What I don’t get about Republicans is that they all express hatred and contempt for all things European yet in reality, all they want to do is make the United States more like Europe.

    @Crossbat11

    “Although I think the dividing line is gossamer thin, I genuinely believe that patriotism, in the sense of loving the place you live, is different from jingoism and xenophobia.”

    I agree.

    @ Billy Bob

    “This drove me to check out tabloid coverage (the “orgy”, as CNN described it, did rather pass me by)… the odd picture of the Duke of Cambridge looking glum (“contemplating his duties as a future King”), outnumbered about 40:1 by pictures of Kate and Harry (“thick as thieves”). So perhaps a bit of a slump for Wills as well.”

    I think Wills will slump once he loses all his hair. Poor guy. Although given the amount of money that the royals undoubtedly have, you would think that he could afford some Propecia. Or some Rogaine. Or a hair transplant from Dr. Bosley if things really got bad. And yeah CNN has gone downhill.

  35. @ Roger Mexico

    “Of course those who backed William (or a republic) may just have a good understanding of history and that “The British Constitution is what happens”. After all there have been previous instances when a legal King or Queen has been disposed of and replaced with a more acceptable candidate – most recently in 1936. The legal niceties are always sorted out and life goes on.”

    Was that King (I’m forgetting his name at the moment…the one Guy Pearce played int he movie who married the American lady) really unpopular with the public? Or was he just unpopular with the leaders of the government at the time? Did they, in the upper eschelons of British society, find him more scandalous than the public did? Like, had the dad(I’m forgetting his name too) lived until let’s say 1946, after Labour had been swept into power, would Clement Attlee have bothered to force a removal over his decision to marry an American and throw wild parties? Or might he have said “I don’t give a toss. I’ve got more important sh*t to do right now.”

  36. @ Neil A

    “I think the left is a pretty good home for people who hold views about the superiority of the British over the Americans, however…”

    Really? I kinda feel like Labour seems to be the most pro American of the major parties. Of course, from what you tell me about European laws regarding criminal procedure and individual rights, I have a hard time understanding why Europeans hated Dubya so much. The things that leftwingers here really hated him for doing or attempting to do are things that Europeans generally accept (the police state).

  37. @ American Bystander

    “Albertans are in the same discussion with the Southern US, though they don’t like to admit it and will get offended if the comparison arises. They want to have it both ways, fiscal conservatism and oil money, but also the idea that they are better than the US. They are a bit more socially moderate than the South, but I would say they are actually to the right of the south on many economic issues.”

    Well are they as fat and loud as southerners are? Have they tried to secede from Canada and express admiration and pride in this history while simultaneously telling all other Canadians that they are not patriotic enough (presumably for not wanting to start unneccessary wars and enforcing non-discrimination legislation). Do they spend their time trying to find ways to illegally and unconstitutionally restrict the right to vote for minorities? Okay, enough south bashing. (They’re not all like that, just a select few).

    Actually, I feel like west coasters and residents within the District of Columbia are more socially leftwing than Europeans and Canadians are. Even the Dutch can’t claim to have a constitutional right to watch adult videos unlike Oregonians.

  38. @SoCalLiberal

    It was Jon Stewart who picked up on the “orgy” comment in CNN’s coverage of the river pageant, and made great play with it.

    You might be interested to know that in one of the towns here in the largely Conservative South-East, a visiting French farmers’ market coincided with the Jubilee… cue complaints in the local paper about French people intuding into “our British weekend”, how come the council allowed this outrage? There is also a fair degree of concern in Tory circles because Ukip ousted the council leader in May and there is another byelection on the cards. As a pro-european I have to see the funny side, otherwise I would really despair.

    Btw Adam Gopnik (of the New Yorker) has been contributing BBC Radio 4’s Point of View recently, a welcome addition to the schedule.

  39. Regarding Osborne`s assertion,what`s new?But Europe blowing up does take attention away from failing growth here…Almost every headline the last few weeks has been about Eurogeddon…May help to keep the confidence of the Con voters though can`t see the rest falling for it.

    I would say the Con vote is very soft and it melted when the media turned it`s hostile attention after the budget but it is helped by Miliband taking on Murdoch which naturally puts a big proportion of the media firmly on the Tories side.The focus of the coverage is on what`s going well,and no critical eye is cast on the spin.

  40. @ Peter Cairns

    “I’ve never been to Alberta but my sister in laws husband Larry was brought up on a farm near Calgary.

    They have a continental climate, boiling summers and freezing winters!

    Scotland has a mild climate!!!!

    Its colder and wetter than England but there is a big world out there beyond the English Channel.

    I thought coming from the States you would be the last person to see it from a UK point of view.”

    I’ve never actually been to Alberta. I think I came close once during a childhood trip to Montana.

    Even though I don’t drink and don’t play golf, I loved Scotland. But I noticed that even in August, it was somewhat chilly. This left me to wonder what it was like in January and February. I tell you, I am no fan of snow. I find it unnatural, weird, and inconvenient.

  41. STATGEEK

    It seems reasonable to assume that the Scottish sample is not representative of Scottish opinion (indeed, there is no particular reason why it should be).

    With the sample having 31% with a Con VI that makes the figures on the Jubilee all the more interesting – “- I ignored it as far as possible” – Scotland 48% : E&W 25%.

    That does seem to suggest that there was a fair amount of antipathy to the Jubilee celebrations (as opposed to the monarchy itself) in Scotland.

  42. @OLDNAT

    “That does seem to suggest that there was a fair amount of antipathy to the Jubilee celebrations (as opposed to the monarchy itself) in Scotland.”

    That hasn’t been my experience. The majority have been pro-monarch, neutral jubilee. Some have been neutral, neutral, and a few neutral, anti.

    Naturally, many of the poltical forums and newpaper comments have been packed with cynics and nay sayers. It’s where the cynics and naysayers hang out. :)

  43. Billy Bob/MikeN
    Alternatively, “The big prob IS GO…”

    Article on the Telegraph website this weekend, praising GO’s response to the EZ crisis, but prefacing this with an excoriating attack (for a Tory-supporting paper) on him. Basically, the article says what some of us have thought about him for several years: that he has a reputation as a master-strategist, but is in fact entirely a tactician, whose strategy is in fact nothing more that disparate tactical reactions packaged up as a masterplan. They criticise him for having no philosophical world-view beyond this week’s headlines.

    I wonder how much longer a Govt can continue through turbulent economic and polling times with a Chancellor who is so despised by both left and right?

  44. By the way. Given the “Big boys did it and ran away” theme of his assessment of the economy today (following previous proclamations that everything from snow to sun to Royal weddings were to blame for our 20-odd months of flat-lining) I wonder how many times the dog ate GO’s homework at school.

  45. I do think that the view that the recession in the UK is “nothing to do with the Eurozone” is several times more absurd than blaming the EZ crisis for it exclusively.

    One might almost believe that Labour could have delivered a storming, healthy economy whilst the rest of the world burned, simply by dishing out a few above inflation pay rises and cutting VAT.

  46. @LEFTYLAMPTON

    If Hunt can`t be sacked,then what are the chances of Osborne going?…this is the man who is probably the brains behind the Cameroon project…He not only knows where the skeletons are buried but in all probability,buried them himself.

  47. Ofcourse the current situation has something to do with the Eurozone…But surely even hardcore supporters cannot believe that the last Labour government was wholly to blame for the last recession but the current government is blameless in the double-dip recession.

  48. STATGEEK

    I’m sure that among Anthony’s comments on polling misapprehensions there is one about people who say “the poll must be wrong. None of my pals think that”. :-)

    I was drawing a tentative conclusion from polling evidence, whereas you …. (goes off, shaking head in despair).

  49. The Spanish bankers have played an absolute blinder. Throughout the tribulations of Iceland, UK, Ireland & US the Spanish banks were oft times alluded to as paragons which the others should have copied.

    Then almost out of the blue, we hear they are in dire straits. But amazingly, their ‘banking crisis’ is a 9 day wonder.

    Within days & with the minimum of fuss or political consequences for Spain, they have got their snouts into the trough of bail-out funds available; coming out well ahead in both the amount secured & the time frame of the actual bail out required. Hmmm…
    8-)

  50. @Neil A

    There in lies the rub. Which is it, that Labour caused the economic woes, or that a crisis in the rest of the world did? And if Labour’s over-spending left us worse off in a global crisis, why is Conservative austerity failing to defend us against a european crisis?

    The conservative narrative was “We were handed an awful economy that Labour ruined, and we have to do what we’re doing because there is no choice.” And now half of that has been apparently abandoned to acknowledge that the rest of the world exists and had more to do with it than labour. If only the conservatives hadn’t quite predicated so much of the latter half of their argument on the former half.

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