There are two new polls in the Sunday papers. YouGov’s weekly poll in the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 42%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 9%. So far all three YouGov polls since the Jubilee weekend have shown Labour’s lead dropping into single figures, having been averaging at around 12 points before the Jubilee.

Meanwhile Angus Reid have a new poll in the Express, with topline figures of CON 29%(nc), LAB 43%(-2), LDEM 9%(nc), UKIP 9%(+1) – changes are from Angus Reid’s last poll at the end of May. Angus Reid tend to show the biggest Labour leads of all the pollsters (a reverse from the last Parliament, when they showed the biggest Conservative leads), so while the 14 point Labour lead is large, it is actually marginally smaller than the record 16 point lead they were showing last time round.


183 Responses to “New YouGov and Angus Reid polls”

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  1. Jurassic Park ! :-)

  2. Sorry about that, but I found myself in Alan Partridge mode for a moment. :-)

  3. phew, hopefully the UKIP 6 % this week in the YouGov/Sun was a blip.

  4. It really is disappointing that people are more likely to vote Tory, when they clearly didn’t in the past for good reason, because of a completely irrelevant jubilee that has nothing to do with government.

  5. @David Anthony, I disagree, the granting of the extra bank holiday had to do with the Tories. Also it is only speculation, but the relationship betweeb Buckingham Palace and Downing Street surely would have influenced the level of cooperation.

  6. I think the jubilee week has given the coalition some much needed breathing space so they haven’t been able to make any cock-ups over the last few days.

    This would suggest that +8% is the new “level” for the time being, where another torrent of bad tidings and U-turns and Leveson will push it back up to 12, and a temporary headline grabber like a veto or two, will push it down a bit.

    The problem I always feel with this govt though, is that they just don’t seem to be very good at the basic job of governing (i.e. legislating their agenda consistently).

    So I guess +8 is what you get when there’s nothing going on. But normal service is about to be resumed.

  7. People AREN’T more likely to vote Tory because of the Jubilee. It’s just that a few days absent of terrible headlines (no U-turns, Leveson, cock-ups) has meant that a few who had just tipped into the Lab column have spilled out again.

    If govts are hit by a “feel-bad” factor and misery, then a long-bank holiday and a bit of flag waving do boost the “feel-good” factor, but it is a very temporary thing!

  8. We did also get more coverage of DC reminiscing about sleeping out on the mall in 1982. Maybe there really is a “Union Jack” vote that listens out for things like that?

  9. @Adrian B

    Over the past month, the Labour lead was largest in the two weeks when Leveson was making the news, and fell back in the other two weeks including the one just gone.

    To paraphrase AW, it may just be coincidence, but if the lead jumps again next week, it would look very much as though Leveson is having a significant and consistent effect on VI.

  10. UKIP on 9% and Conservatives doing okay-ish suggests again that not all UKIP leaners came from disgruntled Tory voters.

    Yes, I expect the Labour lead to grow again once the fuel duty price hikes kick in. Or else some other bad news will reinforce the effect.

  11. @Adrian B, they are more likely to vote for whomever is in the power though because the feel good factor extends to the idea that people feel the country is going in the right direction, for a weekend it felt like the silent majority were in charge and perhaps the country wasn’t on a continuous downward spiral. That feeling will certainly cause people to support/vote whomever is in power, in this case the Tories.

  12. Wait to the scandals start to hit the government. Various stories appear to be gaining momentum at the moment. If there is any substance to them, could be a real game changer.

    Won’t expand on them, for fear of inciting a partisan debate, which will end up in a snip being applied.

    All I will say is that voters have in the past shown how they feel about politicians not showing an appropriate level of propriety.

  13. I wonder if the jubilee also helped UKIP. My thinking being that UKIP describes themselves as a patriotic party. They have been accused of being a fring right-wing party because of this and perhaps last weekend the nation went “no wait a minute, patriotism is a good thing and it doesn’t make you racist”. Anyone else think that it is possible the Jubilee made UKIP ideas regarding Britain, patriotism, community spirit etc wasmade more mainstream due to the Jubilee?

  14. Sorry for all the comments, but I’m also interested to the the details when the tables go up as to whether perhaps the jubilee dented SNP and some of those voters went to UKIP as their protest vote? I guess we will see soon enough.

  15. If reports are correct, no strings attached bailouts are possible after all, if you’re a Spanish bank. Red rag to a Greek bull?

  16. Does anyone think the Olympics is likely to have a similar effect on polling?

    Seems like, more than anything, polling in 2012 has shown how soft both the Tory and Labour support really is. I think it demonstrates how open the 2015 GE is, especially as we get closer to the date.

  17. @Nick P

    With results so far, your dream quarter final of Germany v Greece seems to be moving a tad closer to reality.

  18. re the jubilee (a regular occurrence that used to be marked by generosity from those who rule – maybe to-days equivalent is a day off)

    It seems to me that the Labour lead is a bit like cost-push inflation in that it requires a repetitious shock in order to sustain itself. So far, the Conservatives have obliged with “omnishambles”. For a sustainable pattern to embed itself, however, Labour would need the equivalent of “normal” or “built-in” inflation sustained by the equivalent of a price/wage spiral , whereby the electorate’s adaptive expectations lead to ever-increasing leads.

    The Conservatives can point to any narrowing of the lead as evidence that “hyper-poll-deficit” has not taken hold.Labour, in contrast, need to make every event evidence that the electorate were misled in 2010, and continue to take every opportunity to show such evidence until they no longer have to say any more than “typical”.

  19. @AmbivalentSupporter , not sure about the olympics, but I suppose that if they go off without a hitch the Tories could benefit some.

    I agree that the support for the main three is shaky at best. Outside of the activists on this comment section, you will be hard pressed to find a single person who is enthusiastic or excited for the Libs, Labs or Cons, in fact there is outright contempt for them. I think the ground is fertile for the smaller parties.

  20. JIM

    “I’m also interested to the the details when the tables go up as to whether perhaps the jubilee dented SNP”

    You can’t tell that from the Scottish cross-breaks which aren’t matched to the Scottish demographics. Successive Scots samples aren’t necessarily measuring the same sort of people as each other.

    Sometimes the sample is SNP heavy, sometimes Labour heavy. A sample could also be thought of as LD heavy, if it showed more than 4% support for the wee souls! :-)

  21. @John TT

    Once Leveson has reported and the police start to bring charges, how long do you think it’ll take the courts to get through all of the cases? Until 2014? 2015?

    Up to this March, there had been 44 arrests in the last two years (according to Tom Watson’s book).

  22. @Jim,

    “Outside of the activists on this comment section, you will be hard pressed to find a single person who is enthusiastic or excited for the Libs, Labs or Cons, in fact there is outright contempt for them. I think the ground is fertile for the smaller parties.”

    Couldn’t agree more – especially as I am one them!!!!

  23. David Anthony
    It really is disappointing that people are more likely to vote Tory, when they clearly didn’t in the past for good reason, because of a completely irrelevant jubilee that has nothing to do with government
    __________

    Well the Labour vote did increase in Glasgow when the Moscow State Circus came to town!! ;)

  24. @Allan Christie, thanks for that, made my night!

  25. Leveson is of little interest to the public – it might even be slightly helping the Tories by revealing the bankruptcy of the opposition (literal and otherwise).

    As for Watson, what is meant by this?

    Writing on Twitter, Mr Watson said: “Young people as commodities with few rights in a show of opulence by state elites? Isn’t there a powerful symbolism to that?”

    Birmingham Mail
    h ttp://www.birminghammail.net/news/birmingham-news/2012/06/08/black-country-mp-tom-watson-hits-back-at-claims-he-attacked-the-jubilee-97319-31136986/

  26. John tt

    A very wise second para I reckon.

    4 points=the value of a few days silence.

    When the noises start again, they need to be about good stuff. But even that is secondary to not being about more bad stuff.

  27. Jim

    :)

  28. DAVID ANTHONY

    @”It really is disappointing that people are more likely to vote Tory”

    Speak for yourself mate :-)

    And remember that-like the “customer”; the “voter ” is always right.

  29. Phil – is there a “spiral” effect yet? I’d suggest there was such an effect on Gordon Brown (unfairly or not). I’m not sure the people have turned on the Conservatives in a way that is necessarily irreversible

    Leveson is interesting for me because of the likely effects on how personalities are portrayed in the press from now on. The campaign to come will be less about who is in favour with which paper, and more about whose policies chime most. Leveson’s process is I hope diminishing the power of the mask and exposing the heart of what matters.

  30. Colin – my instinct is to re-write my second para! Re the rest of your output, I’d like to say I couldn’t have put it better myself!

    Best wishes, and I hope the butterfliues are in profusion where you are. Off to bed, rest easy. J.

  31. 1981 was a tough year for the country, and for the Thatcher Government.
    Obviously this time there is a Lab > LD swing (unlike then compared to 1979)
    but once the economy had turned round,
    the Government was back with a majority of 144.

  32. I actually don’t think much has changed here at all, has it? Angus Reid has the Labour lead at 14% compared to 16% before the Jubilee, so well within MOE fluctuations, and YouGov has recorded a couple of 9% and 8% Labour leads, down slightly on pre-Jubilee levels. Angus Reid has shown no Tory VI recovery at all (still on 29%) and YouGov has shown only a slight upward twitch of maybe 1 or 2% at best. The Labour VI on both Angus Reid and YouGov has dropped a couple of percentage points, thereby narrowing the lead slightly, but there’s no evidence of a Jubilee boost for either of the coalition parties at all.

    What’s more, why on earth did anybody think that there would be? What has a bit of bun-throwing, flag-waving and boozing got to do with anything very much apart from being a fairly harmless way to while away a couple of bank holidays? What went on last weekend was about as much to do with the Royal Family and patriotism as Christmas Day now is with Christianity. Harmless knees-ups and eye-pleasing displays of pageantry, probably more enjoyed by the hundreds of thousands of overseas tourists who crammed into London to see it all than to the vast majority of this country’s inhabitants.

    I’ve never seen more Japanese tourists waving Union Jacks in all my life!! lol

  33. There seems to be a narrowing of the poll lead….

    But the government’s problems have worsened…the continuous deterioration in the politics of the EU and Euro postpones UK economic recovery….and that postponement undermines the government’s financial strategy and its political rationale.

    And of all the times to chose this one to take on the police – of all vested interests in society – seems particularly poorly chosen.

    The last administration that seemed so prone to mistimed well-meaning reform was Ted Heath’s … the quiet revolution of his 1970 conference speech ended in the rather noisy mess of an early election shadowed by power cuts and the three day week.

  34. “What went on last weekend was about as much to do with the Royal Family and patriotism as Christmas Day now is with Christianity.”

    ????

  35. Not so sure about the Labour vote being soft. It has been above 40% with YouGov since mid April.
    I suspect the Labour are quite happy to be polling 42/43% after the Jubilee weekend. The massive 34% for the Tories could disappear as fast as the bunting did in the gales!

  36. @John TT
    Not yet to the same extent as Brown, or for that matter Major in his last three or so years, I’d agree. But certainly there’s been some lasting damage there from a combination of the events of the past few months.

  37. JJB & crossbat – this is with you not @ you! -I don’t think many of the celebrators last week-end thought of the nature of what “jubilee” is all about any more than they think about what Christianity is all about when they celebrate Christmas.

    That’s not to say that either event lacks validity.

    There is a strange connections in that bothe events involve an image of altruism, benevolence and sense of
    communi(ty)ion.

    Ceasing to commemorate would be a shot in the foot to those of us who want to promote a bit more altruism, albeit that we live in a more selfish world than that experienced by those who initiated the idea of “jubilee”

  38. @Joe James B

    “What went on last weekend was about as much to do with the Royal Family and patriotism as Christmas Day now is with Christianity.”

    Let me explain myself a little further. I think the proportion of people participating in the Jubilee shenanigans who care deeply about the welfare of the Monarchy is about the same as the number of people who sit down for their Christmas Day dinner who could properly be called Christians. They just like any old excuse for a bit of a shindig. Good luck to the Jubilee and Christmas revellers, I’ve no objections to either event, but we mustn’t attribute passions and beliefs where none exist. A little hedonism goes a long way!

    Hell, I’d even listen to a little Gary Barlow music myself when comfortably sedated by about eight pints of strong ale!

  39. “What went on last weekend was about as much to do with the Royal Family and patriotism as Christmas Day now is with Christianity.”

    I can’t quite figure this one out except to say that my part of the country must celebrate the Jubilee and Christmas in very different ways than your part Crossbat 11.

  40. @Crossbat11, I answered before you explained further.

    All I will say is that I think last weekend was very much about patriotism and that “proper Christian” is very hard to define, for some it is simply a belief with no actions needed. Since I am quite off the topic of polls I should leave that complicated debate there.

  41. Phil – I think we agree. Brown entered an aspect of the spiral with the “election that never was” and his favouring of Andrew Marr alienated him amongst Marr’s competitors to the extent that it weas inevitable that he’d be subject to such artistic moves as the “forget to remind him to take off the radio mic” episode.

    My main point is that such manoeuvres are going to be less part of the dna of journalism than they were. In my view, an establishment of a rigourous ethical code, preferably policed by an independent body AND by individual self-respect by journalists and politicians will lead to a better debate.

  42. @JohnTT

    I agree with a lot of what you say, although I think right wing politicians (in the case of the Jubilee) and the established churches (in the case of Christmas) misread, either deliberately or innocently, the true nature of what is going on when these respective celebrations take place. However, I agree with you entirely that the concept of altruistic community-based celebration is an entirely benign and positive one, especially if it isn’t rail-roaded by people who have political axes to grind.

  43. @Jim

    “All I will say is that I think last weekend was very much about patriotism and that “proper Christian” is very hard to define, for some it is simply a belief with no actions needed. Since I am quite off the topic of polls I should leave that complicated debate there.”

    Patriotism I can relate to when it means love of country. Fawning deference to a Royal Family, in my world, has nothing to do with patriotism at all, especially when certain members of that family had some decidedly dubious notions of patriotism when Hitler was casting his dark and evil spell in the 1930s.

  44. @Crossbat11, I think we sort of agree. I like the royal family, however, I do think last weekend was more to do with pent up patriotism than the royal family.

  45. I think the left can probably relax about the Jubilee.

    The bulk of the Labour Party, publicly at least, is squarely pro-Monarchy and 100% behind the celebrations and the sentiments therein. The public knows that.

    The Tories (I hope) have the good sense and good grace to recognise that the Monarchy is not a party political resource for them – that is part of what’s great about it.

    The Jubilee will have helped take the pressure off the Tories, simply by changing the subject. I don’t think expressions of patriotism or love for the Queen are inherently advantageous for the Tories, though. A Labour government reeling from a string of gaffes would probably have benefited in exactly the same way.

    Europe is a different issue – I detect a fairly concerted attempt by the Tory spin machine to mould the EZ crisis into a vote-winning narrative. The word “Veto” is being used (like last time, in contexts where it is not the right word..) and there are hints and teases about a possible referendum. If the Tories manage it well (and I doubt they will, on recent form) they might be able to engineer a sense of association between the “Britishness” of the Jubilee and the Olympics, and the “Britishness” of Europhobia.

  46. CROSSBAT11

    “Patriotism I can relate to when it means love of country”.

    I don’t really relate to that idea of “love” for your country. It seems a rather over-hyped concept – and quite possibly containing ideas that one’s own country is, somehow, “better” than other countries.

  47. @Neil A
    `Europe is a different issue `

    I agree with you…Headlines along the lines of `Cameron will ride on his white horse and protect the fair maiden of Britain` have been seen the last few days…But if this becomes an issue,Milliband can burst the bubble by declaring that he`ll conduct an in-out referendum if he gets into power.

    Also Leveson is reaching it`s climax…Would be interesting to see if the Tories emerge unscathed or more skeletons are discovered in the cupboard.

  48. Oppositions tend to have an easy time from the media until nearer election times and can get away with standing by and letting incumbents deal with the ups and downs of having to make unpopular decisions .

    The UK Labour Party is embracing this strategy perfectly but unfortunately for them a majority of voters take government debt seriously and the Spanish crisis is centre stage and will be for some time .

    Post Dowler and Brooks etc, Leveson will fade in the minds of voters and the Opposition will have to raise
    their game .

    Voters see a modern , developed economy like Spain dependent on borrowing and struggling to do raise funds . In this country they see an Opposition playing down debt problems and advocating increased borrowing , obviously with no guarantees of lenders willing to do so at affordable rates if any .

    The Eurozone could be more of a problem for Labour than the coalition . At the moment their Treasury team can’t even give a definite answer as to their policy in Government on reintroducing the 50% tax rate .

  49. I can only really see the single figure polls as a blip, because, as with the last governments dying embers, the current one cannot go a few days without walking into a PR disaster, whether it is intentional due to poorly received policy or just pure bad management/luck. Double figures again by next weekend.

  50. What the Tories need now is a few shock wins for the English football team. This would reduce the opportunity for negative headlines while increasing the feel good factor. It would also buy DC time to counter the negative media which in recent weeks has been very effectively managed against the Tories.

    After the football comes Wimbledon and here DC must be praying for either Robson or Watson to achieve a few victories (ideally both). This would take the front pages for a week or so. A win for Murray would probably benefit the SNP.

    After that comes the build up to the Olympics.

    I’m searching for something that would boost the LD vote; but until (or if ) the economy significantly recovers I do not see their support rising.

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