There are two new polls in the Sunday papers. YouGov’s weekly poll in the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 42%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 9%. So far all three YouGov polls since the Jubilee weekend have shown Labour’s lead dropping into single figures, having been averaging at around 12 points before the Jubilee.

Meanwhile Angus Reid have a new poll in the Express, with topline figures of CON 29%(nc), LAB 43%(-2), LDEM 9%(nc), UKIP 9%(+1) – changes are from Angus Reid’s last poll at the end of May. Angus Reid tend to show the biggest Labour leads of all the pollsters (a reverse from the last Parliament, when they showed the biggest Conservative leads), so while the 14 point Labour lead is large, it is actually marginally smaller than the record 16 point lead they were showing last time round.


183 Responses to “New YouGov and Angus Reid polls”

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  1. @R Huckle,

    I think it’s more of a communications breakdown than a fit of forgetfulness.

    It’s not like the police can complain, as the whole incident took place under their supervision!!

    (My mother once accidentally left me at a petrol station in Plymouth on her way to a family holiday in Cornwall… these things happen…)

  2. I think we are as ever in danger of looking at Stats on the Scottish economy like “Angels on the Head of a Pin”.

    Rather than argue over a few percent one way or the other we should agree that Scotland is capable of being independent economically and then focus on if we want to be.

    If there is an economic debate to be had, it is about the future direction of both of our economies, or relations with each other and how we face the challenges of the future.

    Peter.

  3. @SoCal,

    I agree entirely that Mitt Romney isn’t remotely likely to endorse the wilder excesses of Republican economics. He’s a moderate, and competent. If he is elected I too would expect him to govern from the centre.

  4. @ R Huckle

    “Appears Cameron is very forgetful.

    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/4365514/David-Cameron-left-his-daughter-aged-8-down-pub-after-lunch.html

    And he left his 8 year old daughter in a cads den !”

    That’s a cheap shot. I mean, parents make mistakes like that all the time. Especially parents who are also running countries. It’s a high stress, 24/7 profession. In fact, I think it’s amazing that he realized his daughter wasn’t with him only a few minutes after going home. Besides, do you want your PM spending time watching his kids? Or do you want him running the country?

    Also, I’m curious about something. Doesn’t he have some kind of security detail? I would imagine there’s a phalanx of royal guardsmen around the PM and his family at all times. Shouldn’t they be watching the kids and doing a headcount and all? I’m pretty certain that the Secret Service (when they’re not taking time off for sexual escapades with foreign prostitutes) carefully watch Malia and Sasha Obama and do headcounts on trips and family outings.

    @ Wolf

    “Last time France had a far left government was 1936. Not a happy experience.”

    That’s a also a cheap shot (at the French and at leftwingers). That exxperience might have been happier had French right wingers not adopted the slogan “Better Hitler than Blum”. That was pretty grotesque overall.

    Also, I think that the French had a left wing government from 1981-1986 and again from 1988 to 1993.

  5. Ch4 dispatches programme tonight looks interested.

    http://politicalbetting.com/

    I can’t comment on the content, as to do so would be against the partisan policy of this site. If the allegations are proved to be true, there are very serious implications for the survival of the coalition and the possibility of an early GE. The poll ratings of the Tories would nosedive and I don’t think under a new leader, it would make much difference.

  6. @SocialLiberal
    Of course all usual caveats apply, a victory is never certain until the results of the runoff are proclaimed, and this is the official position of all progressive parties’ leaders, because too much certainty may lead to further indifference and abstention, but historically and statistically a victory (even a very narrow one) of the right in terms of seats seems highly improbable, the total results of the left are very close to those of 1988 and 1997, when the final result was OM for the left.
    36 out of 577 seats have already been declared in the first round: 25 for socialists and allies and 11 for UMP and allies. So, the great bulk of the seats will be decided at the runoff.
    As for the movements of voters from and to the various parties, it is clear that the major part of UMP losses from 2007 went to the NF, but a smaller part went also to the Soc.+Green, because the losses of the Center seem to have been equally split between Left and Right, so the UMP with its satellites should have 36-37 instead of 34 actually. Of course there are many local variations, but this is the great picture. Once again the Left did extremely well in Paris, once a stronghold of the right, the score is 12 to 6 seats (and it could even be 11 to 5, the result of the 1st constituency is open), which is totally unprecedented. My “original” (before the creation of the special constituencies abroad) constituency (now the 5th of Paris after redistricted) gave a clamorous victory to the Left: Soc. 43.5, UMP 21, Left Front 13.5, Green 8.5, Center 5, NF 5, Others 3.5.
    As far as “fratricide” duels are concerned, the most important of all is not a Right vs Right, but a Left vs Left one: In the 1st constituency of Charente-Maritime, S. Royal is first with 32% and the dissident socialist O. Falorni second with 29%. What will be the attitude of UMP voters (19%) at the runoff? S. Royal was poised to be the next President of our National Assembly, but now it is unclear if she will even be a MP.
    One of the most advertised duels was that of Marine LePen against J.L. Melenchon in the 11th constituency of Pas-de-Calais. The results: Marine 42.5, Kemel (Soc.) 23.5, Melenchon 21.5, Center 8, Green 2, Others 2.5 (The UMP has not filed a candidate). So, Melenchon is eliminated, and the seat will be very probably won by Mr. Kemel, since the FN has no reserve of votes for the runoff. F. Bayrou is also in a difficult position in the 2nd constituency of Pyrénées Atlantiques: The Socialists are first with 35, then Bayrou with 23.5 and UMP with 22. The UMP has the right to remain in the runoff, and if it does so, the most probable result is a Socialist victory, thanks to the reserves of LF (5) and Green (3). It will be the first time in ages that Bayrou will not be in Parliament. So globally things did not go well for ex-presidential candidates.

  7. @ Neil A

    “I agree entirely that Mitt Romney isn’t remotely likely to endorse the wilder excesses of Republican economics. He’s a moderate, and competent. If he is elected I too would expect him to govern from the centre.”

    He’s not a moderate and he’s not all that competent and he’s definitely not going to govern from the center. But when it comes to economics, even he has made some quiet acknowledgements about how deficit cutting would harm the economy.

    If he wins, the GOP keeps the House (the Dems might hold the Senate though strangely enough). Stimulus will get passed because the Republicans know that’s neccessary. Spending cuts will get delayed. Dubya’s tax cuts will be further extended. Now, some of the teabaggers in Congress who actually believe in this garbage economics might revolt but they’ll be quickly put down.

    Here’s what I find interesting. Romney talks endlessly about the deficit and the debt and Karl Rove’s Super PACs go on about it ad nauseum. Yet if you actually bother to read Romney’s proposed plans for the budget, his plans will actually increase the deficit and further our longterm debt. And I don’t think they’re productive uses of deficit either. But that’s just how his plan works. I mean, you can smell what’s going on here.

    When he gets into the oval office, he’s going to bring in with him the David Frum types to work in his administration too.

  8. @ Socal.

    Cheap shots. Yes of course. Well if you have lived in Britain for as long as I have, you think like a tabloid newspaper headline writer.

    My headline would have been Cameron leaves his 8 year old daughter in cads den.

    If you go into politics, you have to able to take cheap shots. Don’t tell me that this does not happen in the US ! Now that would be an interesting debate. How the public treat politicians in the UK compared to the US.

  9. @Neil A

    “(My mother once accidentally left me at a petrol station in Plymouth on her way to a family holiday in Cornwall… these things happen…) ”

    Perhaps the experience had an influence on your career choice ?

  10. @ Virgilio

    “As far as “fratricide” duels are concerned, the most important of all is not a Right vs Right, but a Left vs Left one: In the 1st constituency of Charente-Maritime, S. Royal is first with 32% and the dissident socialist O. Falorni second with 29%. What will be the attitude of UMP voters (19%) at the runoff? S. Royal was poised to be the next President of our National Assembly, but now it is unclear if she will even be a MP.
    One of the most advertised duels was that of Marine LePen against J.L. Melenchon in the 11th constituency of Pas-de-Calais. The results: Marine 42.5, Kemel (Soc.) 23.5, Melenchon 21.5, Center 8, Green 2, Others 2.5 (The UMP has not filed a candidate). So, Melenchon is eliminated, and the seat will be very probably won by Mr. Kemel, since the FN has no reserve of votes for the runoff. F. Bayrou is also in a difficult position in the 2nd constituency of Pyrénées Atlantiques: The Socialists are first with 35, then Bayrou with 23.5 and UMP with 22. The UMP has the right to remain in the runoff, and if it does so, the most probable result is a Socialist victory, thanks to the reserves of LF (5) and Green (3). It will be the first time in ages that Bayrou will not be in Parliament. So globally things did not go well for ex-presidential candidates.”

    Why does the UMP have the right to remain in the runoff in Pyrenees Atlantiques if they’ve come in third place? It would be fascinating if all these Presidential candidates failed to win their own constituencies. I’m surprised Royal is struggling against another Socialist. But it’s possible that right wingers might not turn out in a general. And she could win then. It’d be different if she was still the common law wife of Hollande because then they could draw some blood just by defeating her.

    Now I thought 1988 was a plurality for the left in the National Assembly. 1997 was an overall majority (so was 1981). The numbers you are reporting would seem to suggest that the French left will far outpace its 1981 and 1997 results. The presidential election was far closer than I would have expected but I have a feeling the same factors that threatened to create a landslide for Hollande are still present to create a landslide for the left in parliamentary elections.

    One other thing, on the left doing well in Paris. It is unprecedented and it si politically surprising (though also surprising for me as an American to look at sophisticated city and national capital voting right wing….almost a bizarro world set up). But when I visited Paris last year, the people there seemed very depressed and very unhappy. Just generally. The city didn’t have that same luster, that same attitude it had once held. People were unhappy. I think that may be translating politically. And while Sarkozy’s desperate bid to save himself by appealing to racism and imitating the National Front may have landed him a respectable defeat in the Presidential election, I think it turned off a lot of sophisticated Parisians who are fiscally conservative and socially liberal. Maybe they’re more right wing than I realize but I look at right wing Parisians in the 1st, 6th, and 16th arrondisements (and other similar ones) and assume that they’re more like Silk Stocking District Republicans in NYC.

    Thank you for these updates btw. Most fascinating.

    “and it could even be 11 to 5, the result of the 1st constituency is open)”

    What do you mean by the 1st constituency being open? Do you mean it’s an open seat where no incumbent is running for reelection? Or do you mean something different?

  11. @ R Huckle

    “Cheap shots. Yes of course. Well if you have lived in Britain for as long as I have, you think like a tabloid newspaper headline writer.

    My headline would have been Cameron leaves his 8 year old daughter in cads den.

    If you go into politics, you have to able to take cheap shots. Don’t tell me that this does not happen in the US ! Now that would be an interesting debate. How the public treat politicians in the UK compared to the US.”

    Cheap shots in politics don’t always land well because people see through them and get turned off by them. And yeah, your politics are different. You guys look for the tabloid headlines to embarass the other guy. I just feel like, this isn’t one of those things to attack the guy over. It’s probably a very unsettling event for him and his family. And it’s something that does happen quite often to parents of young kids, especially parents who are preoccupied with other things. It tends to be anxiety inducing for both parent and child.

    Anyway, it’s well past my bed time and I’m tired (and still a little bit pumped up) from enjoying Pride events all weekend. Two of my favorite local councilmembers (one who’s a native Scotsman) threw beads at me yesterday!

  12. @R Huckle,

    I don’t imagine Ed M will be getting involved in any slanging match over being a good father.

  13. @R Huckle,

    My mother was a social worker. That was probably more of a factor…

  14. SOCALLIBERAL

    “How many initial changes did Devolution bring to Scotland? That’s what I’m curious about. I have a feeling that the number of changes to Scottish policy has increased in recent years”

    I haven’t done a count of the legislative and policy changes under the different administrations since devolution.

    My impression is that the first Parliament was the busiest in legislative terms. Since Westminster was unable to find time to legislate much for Scotland, there was a backlog of (fairly uncontentious) legislation that the Civil Service had saved up.

    Policy changes were fewer then, however, as a Labour dominated Executive were replacing a Labour secretary of State.

  15. @R Huckle @Neil A
    Not sure what the relative merits of the leaders parenting ability have to do with what the public think.

    If I were to take a guess about how the public will perceive the story, I’d say that only partisans will view this as anything other than a simple mistake (it seems from the detail of the story, it was due to miscommunication over which vehicle people were driving in) but I doubt we’ll see a polling question on the subject so we’ll never know.

    If there is any negative shift in Tory VI, I doubt it’d be because of this story and more likely to do with Osborne’s Leveson testimony – but then, I don’t think that’ll pierce the public’s consciousness and won’t make much difference.

  16. @SocialLIberal
    I will begin from your last question. First, I made a typo error, I wanted to write 13 to 5. The 1st constituency is open in the sense of French “ouvert”, i.e. it can go both was at the runoff, since UMP is first but the PS has more reserves because of the eliminated Green and LF candidates.
    Re Pyrénées Atlantiques: The UMP candidate has the right to remain (and he just declared that he will do so) because he scored more than 12.5% of the REGISTERED voters. The same apples to Melenchon, he could remain also, but obviously he will not do so, the LF has an agreement with Soc-Green that the candidate that comes ahead gets the votes of the other one that is eliminated even if the latter has the formal right to remain in the runoff.
    Re Royal: The UMP candidate declared that she will cast a blank vote, but I am afraid that a part of her voters will vote Farloni just to see Royal out.
    Your are right, the PE runoff seems to have been much closer than the GE runoff will be, and the main cause is that abstention is stronger among circumstantial Sarkozy supporters. The only question that analysts pose is whether the PS, its satellites (Left Liberals, various left) and its close allies (Greens) will have OM by themselves (as in 1981) or if they will be obliged to rely on Left Front MPs (17-23 according to the projections), as in 1988 and 1997. Judging by the numbers and the dynamics, I would dare predict that the first outcome is more probable, but the second one is not bad either). It is, at any rate, clear that an important part (near 40%) of Melenchon voters voted Socialist-Green yesterday, a kind of Presidential + useful vote effect

  17. Is the scheme to improve parenting skills underway, as I might know a couple who could possibly benefit?

    It will be interesting to see if DC’s (un)popularity moves with the revelation about leaving his daughter in some pub.

    Surely, DC’s (dis)approval figures will be hit by this?

    And on top of this there is Leveson…

    Afetr a few weeks when the Cons seemed to have put some issues behind it and got onto the front foot with policies etc, we have this neglectful parent episode.

    I’m sure EM will either avoid mentioning it or perhaps empathise with DC.

    A week is a long time in politics…and it’s just started.

  18. @Tingedfringe,

    I think you’re quite right. I won’t stop certain political figures making snide remarks about it (I notice the Greens’ Jenny Jones has tweeted about them leaving Nancy behind after a “session” – a ridiculously loaded word for what was clearly a Sunday lunch).

    If anything I suspect the incident might actually benefit the PM, insomuch as it reminds people that he’s a family man with young children who finds time to take them out for a treat now and again.

  19. @Mike N,

    I don’t think “neglectful” is a reasonable word to use. Trust me, I know all about child neglect.

  20. Neil A

    “Neglectful” – “not giving proper care or attention to someone”. Seems not unreasonable usage to me.

  21. @Old Nat – “Milliband has already told them that they will be economically poorer when Scotland leaves.”

    That is not quite what he is saying. His latest speech was made on the day after the ComRes poll was released, his comments in February and March only really seem to have been reported by the Scotsman/newsnetscotland/stv etc.

    I doubt English and Welsh respondents have been influenced by Miliband at this stage…unless of course ComRes is indulging in its own variant of the wisdom index and has been asking people to predict what they might think about independence if they had listened to one of his speeches. ;)

  22. You’re clearly a less reasonable man than I am.

  23. Neil A

    I can’t see it doing Cameron any damage either.

    Some of those who already dislike him will delight in his embarrassment,

    A common response, I suspect, will be for people to enjoy the embarrassment to a senior politician, while having zero effect on VI.

  24. Just loving the middle class reaction to leaving one’s child in a pub.

    It seems to boil down to ‘we’ve all done it’, or ‘we’re busy professionals with stressful lives – you can’t expect us to be perfect’ etc.

    Compare and contrast to reactions to same event if said parent was unemployed single mum from Hull with tatoos – not quite sure the Radio 4 set would be quite so understanding.

    On other things; Good market reaction so far to the Spanish bailout. Only problem is, markets know nothing. The now long estanlished EZ tradition is for market slump, followed by bailout, followed by surging market, followed by reality check, and then a return to slump and panic.

    The pattern has repeated itself numerous times in the last few years, with each time the time elapsed between euphoria and reality check shortening.

    It will be interesting to see if the rally lasts until market close tonight.

  25. @Alec,

    If it was an unemployed single mum from Hull, none of us would know about it.

  26. Billy Bob

    TV interview 7/6/12

    Interviewer “So why would England be worse off?”

    Milliband “We would be worse off economically, I think. “

  27. @Old Nat – “TV interview 7/6/12”

    The ComRes poll had already appeared in a newspaper:

    h
    ttp://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/england-and-wales-want-scots-to-stay-in-the-union-poll-reveals-7821241.html

  28. Quite an interesting political response this morning to Osborne’s claims that the EU crisis is ‘killing off’ the UK recovery (like, um – we had one to kill off?).

    Interestingly enough, the negative reaction is coming from his own side –

    “Douglas Carswell, MP for Clacton and a prominent eurosceptic, launched a coruscating attack on the Chancellor on his website.
    He pointed out that Switzerland does a larger proportion of its trade with Europe but is currently growing at two per cent, in comparison with Britain’s shrinking economy.
    “It is not the eurozone crisis that we should blame for our awful economic performance, but the almost total absence of domestic economic reform, coupled with the Treasury’s absurd belief that monetary stimulus can engineer growth,”

    There are other less anti EU voices making similar points, but it is odd that it’s his internal critics seeming to make most of the running this morning.

    What is also interesting is whether Osborne’s desire to pin the blame for his own political purposes will be counter productive. He’s done this before. By talking up Labour’s ‘debt crisis’ he managed to talk the country into recession and shatter weak confidence.

    He’s now potentially doing the same with Europe. Recessions are actually great times to invest, but if Osborne is busy telling everyone that the economy is being killed by Europe, he won’t be doing much to help investor confidence. Again, he seems more interested in the politics than the economics, which adds greatly to my personal sense that he cares more about his own future than mine.

  29. Of course, Carswell’s concept of what to do about it is probably 180 degrees in opposition to what you would do.

    He probably thinks we should slash income tax to 5%, and abolish welfare benefits entirely or something.

    I suspect the issue for the Europhobic right is that they can’t stand the government calling for policies in the EZ which would increase political union.

    Generally speaking, if you’re being attacked from left and right, you’re probably doing something sensible..

  30. I think a sense of humour is required. Some of the contributors to this site, probably don’t find BBC ‘have I got news for you’ very funny.

    I am not saying that anyone would use this against Cameron, to make a judgement on his parenting skills or in relation to his job as PM. But it may be used, in a humorous way at PMQ’s. Along the lines of ‘ there appears to be series of people being forgetful at the moment, George Osborne forgetting he is responsible for the UK’s economy and not the Euro. The PM even forgot to take his daughter home from a pub.

  31. Or Ed Miliband forgetting to put his name on his childrens’ birth certificates?

  32. Sometimes I find HIGNFY funny, depending on the guests.

    Generally though, it consists mostly of left-wing commentators slagging off the Tory party, and for balance, slagging off the Labour party for not being effective enough at slagging off the Tory party.

    Ian Hislop’s tirades against Alastair Campbell were a blessed exception!

  33. @Oldnat

    The SNP are indeed claiming these figures came from Eurostat alone. In the SNP press release, instead of directly quoting the concise parliamentary answer itself, they instead say: “Further evidence that an independent Scotland will be wealthy has been provided from figures published which show that Scotland would be the fifth richest country in the EU on the latest GDP per capita ranking table produced by Eurostat.” No mention of the other sources. Or the dates. Or the irrelevance to today due to the financial crisis that enveloped Scotland after those figures were published. Certainly no mention to the huge bailout Scotland needed to stay afloat and avoid Ireland’s and Iceland’s fate.

    Eurostat do not actually produce any Scotland-only figures, only UK level, and rely on the ONS for much of that.

    This is all just another example of the SNP’s well-known trick of extracting certain convenient economic (often ‘snap-shot’) figures and then presenting them as some kind of incontrovertible proof. They tried exactly the same a few weeks ago with “OECD figures” that turned out to have come from SNP researchers (though they still repeat these figures in the a/m press release!). The annual GERS reports where they discount up to 15% of capital spending and then trumpet either a “balanced budget” or (more recently) “a smaller deficit than the UK” is another classic example. One more is the oft-repeated “£1.5tn of oil left” where they omit to mention that this is heavily based on estimates, a highly improbable 100% extraction rate, on oil prices being far higher than they are now, all the while ignoring plummeting production figures etc. etc. etc.

    If the economic case for independence is such a slam-dunk, why are the SNP only able to produce ‘supporting statistics’ in such a befuddled, obscure and often inaccurate manner?

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