The Sun Politics team have already tweeted tonight’s YouGov poll – topline figues are CON 34%, LAB 43%, LD 8%, UKIP 6%. Tonight’s figures echo the nine point Labour lead yesterday’s YouGov poll showed, so perhaps the long bank holiday weekend has had some effect. We shall see…


50 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 34, LAB 43, LD 8, UKIP 6”

  1. Why is this not surprising.However despite the wall to wall
    establishment coverage,still a firm labour lead.

  2. Had to look twice before I realised there was another poll. I think it could simply be the elasticity of the conservatives support; they have been free from the media onslaught for a while and as such there is a sort of “restoring force”.

  3. ANN MILES

    “Why is this not surprising.However despite the wall to wall establishment coverage,still a firm labour lead.”

    If I can rephrase your comment into one more appropriate to the traditional Scottish Establishment –

    “This is not surprising. The wall to wall establishment coverage reinforces Labour’s lead”.

    Not all establishments have the same label (though they share the common purpose of keeping power in the same place).

  4. It appears that some Tories who had flirted with UKIP, have returned to the fold.

    UKIP were scoring 9% ish a week or so back when the Tories were around 32%. So it seems that some may have changed their minds.

    Perhaps the turmoil in Europe has persuaded some, that now is not the time to contemplate the UK signalling any intention to leave the EU.

  5. Paul Croft and Smukesh,

    “But the other other Howard could be Howard,couldn`t it?”

    Hmmm…it seems that there’s rather a troubling potential for ambiguity in the current nomenclature.

    I propose that, henceforth, “The Other Howard” be referred to as “Howard That Is Not Howard”, so that the next Howard to come along can be “Howard That Is Neither Howard Nor Howard That Is Not Howard”, and so on. This way, we’ll know exactly who is whom, and who isn’t.

  6. Goodness Old Nat,as usual you are far too subtle for me.

  7. May I just say that there is no way that the other Howard
    is the same person as Howard. I know.Trust me..

  8. http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/co56g0frvp/YG-Archives-Pol-Sun-results-070612.pdf

    Looking at the tables, my instinct is that the Tories on 34% is the high end of the where they are currently. I would expect their VI to drop back to the normal range 30-32%.

  9. “@Ann miles

    May I just say that there is no way that the other Howard
    is the same person as Howard. I know.Trust me..”

    Is your husband or partner called Howard by any chance ?

  10. Tables are here:

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/co56g0frvp/YG-Archives-Pol-Sun-results-070612.pdf

    The fact that Conservatives are leading Labour among 18-24s by 42% to 28% may indicate either:

    (a) a mass conversion to traditional Tory values among the young caused by the Jubilious celebrations – buy shares in tweed now.

    or:

    (b) an even more screwed-up YouGov sample among the under-25s than usual. Anthony, if I’ve told you once I’ve told you a hundred times, get some people off panelbase now.

  11. Anthony:

    And the salience of Europe in general in the public’s mind seems to advantage to Conservatives or at least increase their poll numbers by several % points – since at least last autumn…

  12. R Huckle,Christ,give me a break.I am sure they are both
    very nice people but their politics,opinions are just not
    the same.

  13. ANN MILES

    Heaven forfend! I am rarely subtle. :-) It’s simply the difference in understanding that can happen when different political systems try to talk to each other.

    In your political culture, Amber may come across as a dangerous revolutionary. Alas, here, she is but part of the Establishment (though one that may be crumbling as the likes of Joanne Freeman desert it).

    (Sorry, Amber – you were the easiest target I could think of to make my point. :-( )

  14. ROGER MEXICO

    ” traditional Tory values — – buy shares in tweed now.”

    i presume you are referring to some Manx tweed cloth production, as opposed to the fashionable Harris Tweed brand that has appeal across all class, age and national boundaries? :-)

  15. @MICHAEL ELLIOTT
    @ANN MILES

    :)

  16. Is the British public that fickle that they decide who to vote for on the basis of smoothing so slight as an extra Bank Holiday?! God help us!

  17. Old Nat,difficult to see Amber as a dangerous revolutionary,but who knows these days! I would do a
    little smiley thing, but too uninformed,euphormism for
    stupid,to do so.

  18. Smukesh,blast,you can do them too.I shall have to go on
    some sort of training course.

  19. @ROGER MEXICO

    Well spotted, seems a little out to me too.

  20. @ANN MILES
    I know only one icon unfortunately

    But : followed by ) should get :)

  21. ANN MILES

    Loved the typo “euphormism”! :-)

    I thought it linked back to Statgeek’s idea of whether we should “phorm” a Union with other EU states.

  22. @Ann Miles, SMukesh

    Get your emoticons here:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_emoticons

  23. it could just be the u-turns kicking in (people saying “phew”). I wouldn’t think the Conservatives won’t get all they lost to UKIP back that easily, though.
    Another veto moment is needed for that.

  24. @LIZH

    Thanks

    o/\o

  25. @SMukesh

    It seems like the Wikipedia ones don’t work in wordpress, so try these ones:

    http://codex.wordpress.org/Using_Smilies

  26. @LIZH
    8)

  27. Hi Fans.

    I thought I would just flag up another historical election night which is being re-broadcast. This one is having its 25th anniversary…

    ELECTION NIGHT ’87: BBC PARLIAMENT CHANNEL (Saturday 10am-10.05pm).

    For the benefit of Anthony Wells, Peter Kellner, Dr David Butler and all my other students, I will endeavour to be on-line to answer your questions about the psephological dynamics of this election after the broadcast on Saturday night and on Sunday. ;-)

  28. A selection of emoticons may be needed to attach to Milliband’s speech on “defending the Union”.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/viewpoint/ed-milibands-speech-in-full-defending-the-union.2012061196

    We have long heard from the Unionist camp that they are going to present the “positive case for the Union”. This doesn’t seem to be part of that process. :-(

    If I may offer a bit of advice to Ed – since it’s those in Scotland who will be voting in the referendum, the benefits to the union for Scotland need to be part of the “positive case”. “Stronger together” is a soundbite (as Tory, LD as it is Labour) , not an argument.

    Milliband’s list of British/English characteristics (he seems to confuse them a bit) may well be accurate, but are as embarrassing as MacAskill’s description of Scottish compassion.

    Politicians are really crap when they suggest that their people have uniquely access to values which others don’t have. I know they are uttering such rubbish for their home audiences, but it would be much better if they stopped pretending that these characteristics are unique to their people. They should proudly proclaim the good values that their political system has engendered – and the role their party has played in such development.

    How does Milliband square that with SLab’s opposition to minimum alcohol pricing, and Glasgow Labour’s funding of the Orange Lodge?

    Perhaps no one has told him about such matters.

  29. From the prevoius thread:

    @OLDNAT

    “To turn your supposition on its head, why do you not think it better for Denmark to become the seventeenth German Länder, and to have the federal German Republic represent its interests? – perhaps you do.”

    I have never it any thought, and fail to see the similarity of the question I put to you earlier, but I would guess that since Denmark was a nation centuries before Germany, the Danes might prefer Germany to be a province of their small country. Bear in mind that the people of Northern Schleswig voted to be part of Denmark, while those of Southern Schleswig voted to remain within Germany. The majority of the people got a result that suited them.

    If we have a vote, and the Southern end of Scotland voted for the union, while the Northern end voted for Independence, would either the SNP or the Westminster parties favour partition? Of course not. British partitions never work, and all the above parties have too much to lose.

    @PETERCAIRNS

    “Firstly as I have said before about most of the “a but what if ” scenarios the reasoning seems to be, if you are free to make your own choices you might make a choice I don’t like, so I don’t want you to be free to make that choice.”

    While all around me both Nats and Unionists are trying to make me make a choice, without furnishing me with facts. Economic facts. Political facts.

    “Scotland could leave the EU if it wanted too as the treaty allows it, we need Westminster to agree to let us leave.”

    Scotland first has to be part of it, and in the real world, it won’t happen anytime soon, and if it did, we would never come out of it. Why go into to it, to come out of it?

  30. @Graeme Hancocks

    “Is the British public that fickle that they decide who to vote for on the basis of smoothing so slight as an extra Bank Holiday?! God help us!”

    They’ve done it before for Tony Blair and Nick Clegg. :)

  31. @OLDNAT

    “euphormism”

    Or even ‘eumorphism’ – The way the EU zone changes it’s plans to suit the financial crisis of the day.

  32. @ Old Nat

    LOL! I have waited years for someone to point out my antidisestablishmentarianism because it’s the longest word in the dictionary (assuming it still is the longest word!). ;-)

  33. @ Old Nat

    Life is too short (and I’m on my third glass of champagne celebrating the birth of a new grandson!).
    —————————
    :-)

  34. @ Old Nat (from the previous thread)

    “I’ll refrain from spelling out the advantages and disadvantages of one political union against another. Life is too short (and I’m on my third glass of champagne celebrating the birth of a new grandson!).”

    Congratulations!!! :)

  35. OLDNAT

    “In your political culture, Amber may come across as a dangerous revolutionary. Alas, here, she is but part of the Establishment”

    How very Orwellian! :)

  36. @AnnMiles

    Your quite correct, I am not the same as the Howard who also posts here and from what i have read of his posts our politics is different.

  37. What will the proposed boundary changes do to Sussex? Read the latest in our psephological series:
    http://www.allthatsleft.co.uk/2012/06/south-east-boundary-changes-part-3-west-sussex/

  38. emoticon test
    :roll:

  39. awful typo “are different”

  40. Good morning everyone
    Today is the final day of VI polls publication for French GE of June 10, and these are the average results (the divergences between the various institutes are very small):
    Socialist-Green alliance (Hollande gvt) 37 (2007: 32)
    Left Front 8 (4)
    TOTAL PARLIAMENTARY LEFT 45 (36)
    UMP and various Parliamentary right 34 (45)
    National Front 15 (4)
    MODEM-Center 3 (8)
    Extra-parl. Far Left 1 (3)
    Others 2 (4)
    If these figures prove to be correct, then the runoff in June 17 will give a comfortable majority to the left: 310-355 seats out of 577. This might seem a little paradoxical, because in terms of votes the Left+Center has 49 and the Right+Far Right 49 as well, but in the first case there is a formal electoral alliance for the runoff (the eliminated candidates support the one that has made it to the runoff), where there is no such agreement between UMP and FN. On the contrary, the FN has declared that it will maintain its candidates where it can (the runoff is not only between the 2 first, but all those that have more than 12.5% of the registered voters in their constituency can also participate in it), so there will be 50-90 of the so-called “triangulars”, (Allied Center-Left vs UMP vs FN), which makes a Left victory much easier. Of course in many constituencies (80-100) the victory will be a narrow one for either camp, but it is politically and satistically impossible that all these marginals could go to the right, which could be the only way for it to prevent a center-left majority.

  41. Oldnat

    “Politicians are really crap when they suggest that their people have uniquely access to values which others don’t have.”

    Aye, right, but to be fair there is a difference between “Unique” and “Typical” or “Characteristic”.

    You would be on stronger ground if you argued that it was in poor taste to speak of such things.

    “Milliband’s list of British/English characteristics (he seems to confuse them a bit) may well be accurate, but are as embarrassing as MacAskill’s description of Scottish compassion.”

    MacAskill was supported by the Convenor of the relevant committee, the Cardinal and, with greater eloquence than either of them or KM himself, by Archbishop Conti.

    It didn’t do him any harm in the election in a constituency where the few survivors of Christian Democrat Conservatism consider it a duty to vote and where respectable middleclass conservatives have, since the Enlightenment, taken a more progressive view than their counterparts in the South of England and have been a generation ahead, on matters such as colonies, hanging, and women/gay clergy.

    Diverse support to that extent suggests a consensus in values which could be called “characteristic”.

    If so, I’d rather be Scottish.

  42. Breaking news, Osborne at Leveson next week.

    Cue hours of prepping with lawyers?

  43. I wonder whether at the time Vince Cable was appointed, it was realised that he would be responsible for a quasi judicial role regarding BSkyB ?

    If not, being that people knew what his private view was on Murdoch, could he has been deliberately put in a pressurised position to get him to reveal his true feelings ?

    I am not saying that this happened. But Dr Cable when giving his evidence at Leveson explained that on the day he made comments to two Daily Telegraph reporters who he thought were constituents, that it had been a very unusual day. Apparently there has been some form of protest affecting his surgery meeting and there were a lot of people about. The situation had been very stressful and when he made his comments, he was ‘sounding off’.

    Sounds like Dr Cable had been subject to set up, by whoever. Seems a bit of coincidence that two undercover reporters, while there was some form of protest going on.

  44. Coordinated dog whistling…
    Darsi under investigation….
    Cameron kicking off at a paper tiger Germany…
    Publicity for action against arranged marriages…
    Osborne brings up the possibility of a vote on EU membership…
    All timed to coincide with the Jubilee bounce in Tory VI.

    ‘We may not be racist/ obsessed with Europe but if you are you can vote for us’

  45. BBC and others reporting that Spain is preparing for a bail out this weekend. Not being confirmed or denied by Spanish government or the Germans.

    There is a real question mark over how long Euro leaders can remain with the remotest semblance of credibility over financial matters. It beggars belief that they are now talking about elevating the EU/EZ to an entirely new level of integration, when we can see graphically on a daily basis just what a mess they have made of the present arrangement.

    There is another view to take of the developing momentum for a two speed Europe. Clearly, no UK government would currently agree to be included in the full unified zone, so we will be in the second group.

    Clearly also, if a two speed Europe would affect the UK, Cameron would have to call referendum and/or use his veto. It is extremely difficult to conceive a yes vote.

    If it is deemed that there is no impact to us from a two speed Europe, I would imagine that this will open up a distinct new set of arguments over our entire relationship with the EU. If we can stay outside of a complete fiscal (and effectively political union) without harm, it is a much shorter step to arguing we can stay out of the entire EU.

    I really don’t think that EU decision makers have got the remotest clue about the long term impacts of their decisions, and they are still blinded by their own inane propaganda about ‘ever closer union’.

  46. Labour, still on 43 after the jubilee. Lovely. That’s a position from which Labour can win an election. :-)

  47. nickp

    Breaking news, Osborne at Leveson next week.

    Lots of pols at Leveson next week

    http://www.levesoninquiry.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/Witness-List-11-14-June-20121.pdf

  48. @AMBER
    I do not think the “celebrations” will do the Tories an ounce of good. However, Camo giving Europe the big John Wayne treatment, ” pretty soon you’re gonna figure I ain’t you’re friend Pilgrim”, may very well cause you considerable disappointment.

  49. A truly cataclysmic fall in the LD vote in a June1 by-election in Barnet.

  50. ”There is a real question mark over how long Euro leaders can remain with the remotest semblance of credibility over financial matters.” Alec

    Really? Which Euro leaders? For example Merkel is a Euro leader and the German economy is much better than ours…