Back after the bank holiday break, tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 43%, LDEM 8%, Others 15% (including UKIP on 7%). Having been averaging at about a 12 point Labour lead, today’s YouGov poll has the Labour lead back down into single figures.

All my usual caveats apply, sure it could be some sort of Jubilee boost, with people feeling better about things after the extended bank holiday break… but it is equally likely to be normal random sample error, so don’t read much into it unless it is repeated in future polls.


102 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 34, LAB 43, LD 8, UKIP 7”

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  1. Statgeek

    I’ll refrain from spelling out the advantages and disadvantages of one political union against another. Life is too short (and I’m on my third glass of champagne celebrating the birth of a new grandson!).

    In general terms, however, no state is “independent” in any 19th/early 20th century use of the term. It is meaningless, therefore, for you to suggest that there is some contradiction between Scotland being outwith one political union, while remaining in another.

    Everyone is a member of the UN and their freedom of action (what independence means) is curtailed, to some extent, for all states.

    There are some Brigadoon types in the Independence movement, just as there are some League of Empire Loyalist types in UKIP. Fortunately, most people see the advantages of close international co-operation in certain spheres, and that closeness can amount to an effective union, in that the countries involved share their sovereignty on those issues in common.

    Unions can have many advantages, and also many disadvantages. The critical questions for each nation are whether, in any particular union, the advantages are likely to outweigh the disadvantages – and the power of the sovereign people (OK, I know that concept is alien to the Brits and the English) to decide which aspects of their sovereignty to share with others, and on what terms.

    To turn your supposition on its head, why do you not think it better for Denmark to become the seventeenth German Länder, and to have the federal German Republic represent its interests? – perhaps you do.

  2. StatGeek,

    The question; “Why exchange rule from Westminster for rule from Brussels” is often asked, usually by Eurosceptics!

    By and large people who don’t want Britain in Europe see Scotland in Europe as a reason for Scotland to remain in the Union.

    I’ve always seen this as a bizarre position for two reasons.

    Firstly as I have said before about most of the “a but what if ” scenarios the reasoning seems to be, if you are free to make your own choices you might make a choice I don’t like, so I don’t want you to be free to make that choice.

    Apart from being an argument against democracy as opposed to independence, those who advance it seem to be happy with a UK government which can already do things they might not like.

    The second odd thing is that it seems to assume some kind of equivalence between the powers the EU would have over an Independent Scotland with the power that Westminster currently wields.

    Scotland could leave the EU if it wanted too as the treaty allows it, we need Westminster to agree to let us leave.

    Even with the prospects of a tighter Eurozone that Scotland might someday join the powers outlined would be paltry compared to those the UK treasury has.

    The UK decides all of Scotland’s defence issues, from budget to Trident and Iraq, the EU has virtually no defence powers.

    Indeed I can’t really think of any area where the Eu currently or in the near future will have any influence near what is currently available to any UK government.

    Of course the EU’s powers may chance in the future but then they would have to expand hugely to be near what London already has with regards to Scotland.

    Peter.

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