It’s a bank holiday weekend, so there’s no YouGov/Sun daily poll tonight (or indeed tomorrow). However, there are two new polls conducted before the weekend, from AngusReid and Survation.

Angus Reid was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, and has topline figures, with changes since before the local elections, of CON 29%(nc), LAB 45%(+4), LDEM 9%(-2), UKIP 8%(nc). The sixteen point lead is the largest Labour have shown this Parliament, but Angus Reid have tended to show bigger Labour leads than average, so that’s not unexpected given the increased leads other companies have been showing.

Survation meanwhile has topline figures, again with changes from just before the local elections, of CON 29%(-1), LAB 37%(nc), LDEM 13%(+0.5), UKIP 12%(+3), Others 10%(-2).


189 Responses to “New Angus Reid and Survation polls”

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  1. @ Ozwald

    A few trolls around this morning. Best remember the advice we are given from time to time – “Do not feed the trolls”

    ______

    Im not sure if that was directed at me but i assume it was directed at anyone who does not support Labour and think EdM is the best thing since sliced bread.

    I will try to say only positive things about him in future.

    Oh and good morning Chris. Out in the garden today, the weeds have had a field day since my holiday.

  2. CHRISLANE

    @”The terms of trade in politics have shifted IMO, credo.”

    Not sure what this means-but it sounds apocalyptic-perhaps a religious influence ?

    I tend to the “plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose” school myself.

    As Mao said-It is too soon to say .

    Ken- I was wondering how one qualified to get into the enclosure last night at the Concert. I saw a number of military there which I thought was good.
    How did civilians get a ticket?

  3. Martyn

    Not just Ireland.

    The sterling area … involved cooperation in exchange control matters between a group of countries, which at the time were mostly dominions and colonies of the British Empire (later the Commonwealth). These countries either used sterling as their currency, or else their own currency was pegged to the British pound; even member countries with their own currency held large sterling balances in London for the purposes of conducting overseas trade.

    More than fifty years in the case of Ireland as well – punts circulated as legal tender in the Isle of Man late in the 70s till Ireland joined the ERM.

    Now take a moment to relish the fact that many of those denouncing a currency union as un-British and unworkable lived part of their life within one. And it was British.

    What opponents of common currencies often forget is that as well as the centrifugal force[1] caused by different rates of growth within the area (and which are also likely to happen within a nation state) there are also centripetal forces stemming from the increased ease of trade and finance that come from a common currency. It’s trying to get the balance right that’s important.

    [1] Common metaphorical usage only – please don’t try to correct me on the physics.

  4. @martyn – I accept that the USSR was technically a group of independent countries, but in practice it wasn’t – it was in all practical terms governed from Moscow. As soon as this stopped being the case, the currency union was doomed.

    The Irish example is another interesting case – a small economy tacked on to a very big economy, and again, the original single currency was because they were a single country.

    I suspect it was much easier to maintain the sterling link in the 1928 – 1979 period anyway, as we had currency and capital controls as part of the global financial management system. Without these, I would imagine that the link might have gone decades earlier.

    But the link still broke – years before the Euro. I am correct, in that no currency union without political union has survived over the long term. The punt/sterling link did very well, but still only lasted 51 years – less than a lifetime. With 17 countries the Euro is far more ambitious and unstable, and has already had 13 years, so in the next 2 – 3 decades it will fail, probably much sooner.

    There are people here quite glibly saying that closer integration will rescue the Euro, but these people simply don’t understand that this is the start of the problems, not the end.

    Full fiscal union of a deeply unbalanced economic area comprised of 17 independent nations will be the worst of all worlds. It will translate the financial crisis into a political crisis – perhaps not just yet, but at some stage.

    Could you possibly imagine a scenario where governments are voted in but cannot control their own financial affairs, spending programs, tax rates etc. Can you imagine the resentment that will arise in the next period of recession and high unemployment?

    The removal of currency revaluations, conducted via the markets, removes one of the greatest safety valves we have between the economic and political systems. Get rid of that across national borders and you are effectively saying unemployment and inflation will be your only control methods, and you are sowing the seeds for total European breakdown and conflict.

    Fiscal integration is complete madness – and I guarantee it cannot work.

  5. I don’t think this is due to anything Labour has done. It is self-inflicted by the conservatives.

    They have failed to improve the economy, and in fact have made it worse. Much worse for many. And they are mired in sleaze, with the PM at the centre.. Nobody but Cameron believes Hunt’s story, and now we have the co-chair of the party apparently with her fingers in the till. Coulson is likely to be charged with perjury, and the leveson inquiry rumbles on.occasionally erupting with more embarassing revelations.

    I think all Milliband has to do is to keep his head down and say nothing whilst the coalition auto-destructs.

  6. The story about the long term unemployed being forced to steward the royal pageant, disgusts and depresses me in equal measure. This country is treading a very dangerous path.

  7. @Roger Mexico – see my last post. We no longer live in a currency union – ie it failed.
    When we did live in one there were very strict rules on carrying currency over national borders.
    There were strong government and political ties between the UK and members of the sterling area – unlike between Greece and Germany, for example.

    You can say all you like about currency unions, but we’ve has US dollars for 220 years, the pound for even longer, the franc lasted for two centuries, the peseta for 150 years.

    Currency unions last a fraction of these timescales because they are inherently unstable. The economic pressures they conceal will be translated into political and social pressures and these will not be containable.

  8. @Academic
    Perhaps the stark contrasts make it worse. Extravagant pageant for mega-wealthy monarch. Top stars earning megabucks. Media and Contractors doing nicely thank you very much. We are all in this together etc etc.

  9. Martin

    I don’t think this is due to anything Labour has done. It is self-inflicted by the conservatives.

    They have failed to improve the economy, and in fact have made it worse. Much worse for many. And they are mired in sleaze, with the PM at the centre.

    —-

    I agree with that.

    Conservatvies could still turn things around by improving their own performance and by getting the economy moving.

    I’m not sure they will. There must be some political-lemmings in their party – fancy cutting the richest people’s taxes at a time like this – but they may.

    Labour’s lead is not necessarily big enough or robust enough at this point in the electoral cycle – especially given the aforementioned economic problems and sleaze.

  10. Ken
    I’m a republican and I enjoyed the concert/tribute – there were a few odd moments but it culminated in a fairly moving tribute by Charles. I suspect it was difficult for the Queen to fight back to the tears of joy.

    But “If I here the miserable losers that want an elected head of state, ( President Kinnock/ Thatcher / etc ) I will take their name and add it to my little list ! ” is just sillyness.

    You could say ‘President Kinnock’ and I could say Obama, Kennedy, Roosevelt, Washington, Adams, Jefferson, Lincoln, Eisenhower – I could also say Charles I, William I, John I, Henry VII, etc

    It also doesn’t necessarily mean also that we’d elect a Thatcher (there’s no way Kinnock would have won, nor Brown, nor any of the other unpopular leaders) – there are plenty of times in countries with an elected executive and legislature that are from separate parties – see Clinton’s second term, Obama’s second year.. even looking at cities – where London has a GLA which is a Green+Lab majority and a Conservative elected executive.

    It also doesn’t necessarily mean, being a republic, that we’d have an executive and head of state that are the same person –
    We could go back to having an elected monarch, as we had before the Norman invasion. As was the system for the Kingdom of Rome, the election of the Pope (who is effectively a Monarch over the vatican), etc

    In the case of an elected neutered head of state separate from the executive (like we have now in the queen), there’d be nothing to stop the royal family from running and winning – they’re extremely popular and I suspect most people would vote for them.

  11. @OZWALD

    It’s precisely that. The symbolism is quite staggering.

  12. What do people make of the speculation that Vince Cable will soon announce that he is standing down from the cabinet and will challenge Nick Clegg for the leadership of their party.

    Personally I can’t see this happening, as this would split the Lib Dems into two parties again. I suspect that Nick Clegg and the right of centre Libs would continue in the coalition. They would probably just about still have a majority in the HOC, although it would make it very difficult.

  13. It’s worth noting that UKIP + Tories have a 4 point lead over Labour. I think If the economy is recovering in 2014/15, and the conservatives do some sabre rattling on Europe (maybe even a referendum) it wouldn’t be overly difficult to get those would be UKIP voters to vote Tory.

  14. SEAN

    “It’s worth noting that UKIP + Tories have a 4 point lead over Labour.”

    Depends whose poll you are looking at.

    On Angus Reid you need to add Con, UKIP and LD to get a 1 point lead over Lab.

  15. Only yesterday I asked if any Westminster politicians were reading UKPR when talking about getting local communities to earn money from wind turbines, and today we have this

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/windpower/9311365/Bribe-residents-to-accept-wind-turbines-says-Tim-Yeo-MP.html

    Hmm……

  16. “What do people make of the speculation that Vince Cable will soon announce that he is standing down from the cabinet and will challenge Nick Clegg for the leadership of their party.”
    Can’t see it happening – he probably wouldn’t be elected leader and would probably have to just leave the HoC shamefaced.
    I think he’ll stick with what his spokesman has confirmed he’s doing – talking to Labour.

    I suspect he’s talking to Labour to build strategic support for coalition policies which Labour are favourable to (gay marriage etc) which he’s worried that the Conservatives will rebel on.

    What do Labour get out of such a deal? If the Conservatives rebelled in large numbers and it still won in the HoC, Labour would be able to play the ‘It only passed with our support’ and hope to drive a wedge between the liberal-conservatives and the traditional-conservatives.

    So it’s probably just idle media chatter to put pressure on Clegg.

  17. TINGED FRINGE, KEN
    and all.
    Good Morning again after a wonderful beach run, cold it is

    Henrry V11 would be my choice of ruler out of all of them.
    Pragmatic, fiscally prudent, eschewing foreign wars.

    Attlee would be my choice from the present era; one flaw, he obeyed King George V1 in 1951 and called the second GE in 12 months owing to the royal tour.

    I had another thought on my run. Do people here on UKPR ever consider that we might be wrong? I do all the time; for example I believe/credo that I was wrong to dismiss ED Miliband.

    But I disagree with the view that all that Labour has to do is to allow the Government to fail, in order that they win the GE

  18. I doubt if Cable would chuck the towel in before the next GE.

    But I cannot see him entering another coalition with Cons-assuming that were on the cards.

    Conversely I cannot see NC entering a coalition with Labour.

    If the vote turns out to be close at the GE, these stresses will presumably come to the fore in the LD party.

  19. CHRISLANE

    @”Do people here on UKPR ever consider that we might be wrong? ”

    :-) :-) :-) :-)

    I think you need to ask that question somewhere else .

  20. “It’s worth noting that UKIP + Tories have a 4 point lead over Labour.”
    Only with the pollster that gives Labour it’s lowest score.

    YouGov –
    Con+UKIP = 39
    Lab Lead = 3

    ICM –
    Con+UKIP = 40 (going from the final score for Con and pre-adjusted for DK for UKIP figure – adjustment for DK boosts Con, I suspect at the decline of UKIP)
    Lab Lead = 1

    Angus Reid –
    Con + UKIP = 37
    Lab Lead = 8

    ComRes –
    Con + UKIP = 38
    Lab Lead = 2

    It also assumes that UKIP wouldn’t expand on their vote of 3% in 2010, which reduces that Survation to a 1% lead.
    Even falling back to their 2005 vote (2%), that’d give Labour leads of -2 for survation, +5 for YouGov, +3 for ICM, +10 for Angus Reid and +4 for ComRes.

    And plugging the latest survation, even if Cons gained *all* UKIP voters, would leave Cons 17 short on current boundaries, a majority of 7 under new boundaries (for some reason AW’s calculator tells me that 307 seats is a majority of 14, but 298 is 3 short… have I missed something there?).

  21. If we were to elect a head of state, I can see President Boris being a pretty strong favourite (would Ken come out of retirement for round 3 for that job?)

  22. @ Alan

    “If we were to elect a head of state, I can see President Boris being a pretty strong favourite”

    The best argument yet I have heard for keeping the monarchy…..

  23. @ Ken and theiceman

    One other thing you missed (Iceman) about the 3 years to an election bit is that in 2 years or so it is likely that government will start to grind to a halt as Tory and LIb Dem seek to define their differences. It’s difficult to see the LIb Dems letting the Tories get away with stuff they have so far got away with and criticism of each others partiess is going to increase. I can’t see much happening in the 2014 budget so effectively only one budget to go to turn things round.

    From a positive image at the start of the coalition of two parties with different values setting aside their differences for the good of the country it is likely to be a government ending up in squabbles which is unlikely to reflect well on either.

    Also because of the fixed term (probably a good thing) there is not the same 12 month window where the governing party can chose the best time to go to the electorate.

  24. Why do I get the impression that whenever the Archbishop of Canterbury speaks, that Cameron looks on with some disdain.

    I won’t get into a partisan debate about religion and politics, but I find it a very interesting topic of discussion. I wonder whether people have ever been polled as to where religion is on the political spectrum.

  25. Colin

    Cleft will never form a coalition with Labour. But that won’t be because he chooses not to. He’ll never be in a position to do so.

    For a Lab/LD coalition to be a possibility in 15, it’s difficult to imagine a scenario in which the LDs hadn’t lost a lot of seats to Labour. Clegg would therefore be in a fatally weak position. He’d have pinned his colours to a right of centre mast and (in the scenario we are discussing) would have failed. Labour would rightly demand his head as a pre-requisite to any deal ( just as the LDs would have wanted Brown’s scalp for a deal in 10) and the left-ish LDs would gladly serve it up.

    There is more chance of me being invited to give the Oration at Thatcher’s funeral than there is of Clegg entering a coalition with Labour.

  26. Cleft=Clegg of course.
    Once again Apple’s autocorrect comes up with a wittily apposite correction.

  27. Well if the Uk did decide to have an elected head of state it would not have to be a politician..

    I suppose people could put up their nominations as to who they think might do a good job.

    Given that Scot
    And would make its own choice and it would be a British head of state I approach this as a neutral and so will propose….

    Stephen Fry for President.

    Peter.

  28. I was struck by the same iPad correction as Lefty but I lost half a sentence!

    Peter.

  29. @R Huckle

    The AoC’s sermon sucessfully undercut what has been up to now a reinforcement of traditional Conservative values… Nation, hierarchy, ‘natural’ order, deference etc:

    “Compete with each other only in the generous respect you show to one and all….

    This alone is what will save us from the traps of ludicrous financial greed, of environmental recklessness, of collective fear of strangers and collective contempt for the unsuccessful and marginal.”

    h
    ttp://www.archbishopofcanterbury.org/articles.php/2514/archbishops-sermon-at-st-pauls-for-national-service-of-thanksgiving

  30. I wonder if anyone having to change in the rain and sleep under a bridge is feeling ill as a result?

    If so, I would sue the company that put me through that for all it was worth. It’s inhumane and degrading treatment and surely it is a breach of any number of rights we are supposed still to enjoy.

    And how does the DWP manage to avoid responsibility for handing contracts to such companies?

    Outrage follows outrage, preparing the path for ever more extreme policies.

  31. Thanks Woodman.

    Jon Stewart admirably bearing out the truth of Abe Lincoln’s dictum

    “Tact is the ability to describe others as they see themselves.”

  32. Nobody seems to have picked up on thiis news overnight:
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/47680596
    It could be the start of worrying trend for George Osborne who has staked his reputation on keeping the bond markets happy

  33. Chrislane,
    ‘Attlee would be my choice from the present era; one flaw, he obeyed King George V1 in 1951 and called the second GE in 12 months owing to the royal tour.’

    That is not accurate. The 1950 election was in late February whilst the 1951 election was late October – a gap of 20 months! I agree with you that Attlee was stupid to defer to the King in that way. It was also ironic in that George VI’s health prevented the Royal Tour from taking place. so the election was effectively called for no good reason , and had Attlee delayed a further poll until – say – summer 1952 he might well have been re-elected with a more comfortable majority.

  34. I saw a tweet earlier regarding whether the display of affection for the monarch might dent SNP fortunes. While I’m not an ardent royalist, so may not be well placed to judge this, I can’t help feeling that this is wide of the mark.

    I’m sure it isn’t just me who is picking up a sense of disengagement from the jubilee. I hadn’t followed the build up to the big weekend, so apart from the river pageant I didn’t know what was planned, but speaking from the north of England, I had assumed there would be more of a national feel to this.

    What we seem to have had is a completely London centric event – something the planners and organisers may well come to regret. Epsom Derby, Thames Pageant, Buck Palace concert, St Paul’s service and cavalcade through the streets of London. Not a single royal event outwith the capital or it’s immediate confines, despite the fact that there are two other national capitals within the UK where Madge retains the monarchial role.

    While it’s impossible (and highly unwise) to construct a simple argument based purely on geography, the sense stirs in me that the jubilee has been more divisive than unifying. While I can see the practical difficulties in ferrying an 86 year old up and down the country, I can’t help feeling that the establishment has goofed here, and the overwhelming message they seem to have sent out is that UK = London, and she’s our queen, not yours.

  35. @Alec
    “What we seem to have had is a completely London centric event ”
    —————————
    I agree, I posted similar concerns, yesterday I think. Either way it did not generate much excitement in my patch many miles North of Watford, and I felt no urge to tug me forelock zir.

    Come to think of it, they could have spread the Princes and Princesses around a bit to take lead roles in the provinces and maybe had some sort of competition for ‘best event’ .
    But on second thoughts that conjures up images of the Eurovision Song Contest. “Come in Prince Charles from Caernarvon Castle – how are you scoring this?” .

    I’ll put the kettle on – – –

  36. @Aberdaberdoo

    As soon as Nick Clegg started talking about the UK’s strong balance sheet the market took fright.

  37. @ChrisLane

    You said “…Do people here on UKPR ever consider that we might be wrong?…”

    These days, I’m surprised when I’m right… :-)

    @Roger Mexico

    I’d forgotten about the sterling area, thank you.

    @Alec

    Fair point about the USSR, although the SSRs did have more autonomy than you’d think. But the UK/Ireland example still holds. However, we are iterating towards a consensus: big core countries with smaller satellite countries can keep a currency union going for several decades.

    You said “…Could you possibly imagine a scenario where governments are voted in but cannot control their own financial affairs, spending programs, tax rates etc. Can you imagine the resentment that will arise in the next period of recession and high unemployment?…”

    Yep: that’s Argentina under the IMF, or Greece under the EU/ECB/IMF, and these two examples illustrate both our points: that such control causes considerable resentment, and that such control can be maintained.

    You said “…There are people here quite glibly saying that closer integration will rescue the Euro, but these people simply don’t understand that this is the start of the problems, not the end…Full fiscal union of a deeply unbalanced economic area comprised of 17 independent nations will be the worst of all worlds. It will translate the financial crisis into a political crisis – perhaps not just yet, but at some stage…”

    On this we are agreed, but from different angles. I presume you think such a beastie will be created but will cause resentment once created. I’m not sure they could (or should!) create one in the first place: it needs a heck of a lot of people to say “yes” – how are they planning to get that one past 17 governments, 17 heads of state, and i-forget-how-many legislatures?

    You said “…Get rid of that [internal devaluation via currency fluctuation] across national borders and you are effectively saying unemployment and inflation will be your only control methods, and you are sowing the seeds for total European breakdown and conflict…”

    Or (and I’m not being glib here) people just accept it. There’s a Mark Mardell line that’s applicable here – “crisis is the new normal”.

    Regards, Martyn

  38. @WOLF
    `As soon as Nick Clegg started talking about the UK’s strong balance sheet the market took fright`

    They had been really encouraged till then by the lack of growth and double-dip recession.

    @OZWALD

    The Jon Stewart clip was funny…But funnier was the BBC and the papers` attempt to portray the pageant as a great success when it was a dull wash-out.

    But I did enjoy yesterday`s concert very much.

  39. Alec

    I suspect the London-centric thing is more to do with the government having a desire for a big media show than anything else. No doubt it would have been the same under Labour – indeed a lot of the planning must have started then. Still we can’t have the media going more than 5 miles from Big Ben can we?

    I get the impression that the Palace is doing a lot of royal family visits to compensate. They even managed to organise one at short notice to the Isle of Man which no one noticed was on the same day as the local elections. As a result poor Chas and Camilla got ferried around by a rather circuitous route having to avoid all the places where the local bigwigs were grinning like idiots outside the polling stations rather than at the royal couple. Mercifully for once Peel was uncontested, so they could be sent there.

    I wouldn’t feel guilty about influencing Tim Yeo though. He’s a well-known supporter of (and benefitter from) certain more corporate elements in green industry. Though you will notice he was really advocating ‘bribes’ (which usually means promising a community centre and ending up giving £100 to the village hall) rather than the sort of community control you have been promoting.

    Still the link did lead me to another classic only-in-the-Telegraph headline: “Little England Beats the Wind Farm Goliaths”.

  40. GRAHAM.
    Thank you, as I wrote a year later this morning, I knew that was wrong.

    Terrible decision to go for the 1951 GE.

    R HUCKLE.
    MORI polls have shown the church/party links.

    Until 2010 GE Catholics voted Labour predominantly.
    Sadly, for men like me, the Labour Party alienated many catholics after 2005.

  41. Grauniad update:-
    On Tuesday, Molly Prince, the managing director of CPUK, reconfirmed that a number of staff were unpaid but apologised for the fact that a number of their stewards had to sleep under London Bridge.

    Speaking about those who were unpaid, [Molly] Prince said: “The only ones that won’t be paid are because they don’t want to be paid. They want to do this voluntarily, [to] get the work experience.” This was because they would no longer be able to claim jobseeker benefits if they accepted a wage for the work, she said.
    ————————
    Seems to me more like “volunteer or else”.

  42. @ Wolf

    As soon as Nick Clegg started talking about the UK’s strong balance sheet the market took fright.
    ———————-
    I think this is the first time you have made me LOL :-)
    Thank you, I needed a chuckle on a dull Tuesday.

  43. “What we seem to have had is a completely London centric event”
    Alec, perhaps you missed the Jubilee tour, which started before the main weekend and will continue on until August, ending with a garden party at Balmoral?

  44. @ Peter Cairns

    Stephen Fry for President.
    ——————-
    Morrisey (arch republican, The Queen is Dead).
    8-)

  45. @Martyn – thanks for the thoughtful response. It is Tuesday, and I’m always more bombastic on Tuesdays, but I still feel there is an other worldliness to so much of the comment on the Euro crisis.

    As you say, the idea that 17 national electorates will simply accept monetary and effectively political union, and this will work in the long term, really doesn’t need much examination to start raising some very awkward questions.

    In which vein, here’s a new slant of the latest developments – http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100017648/nein-nein-nein-again/

    Evan’s Pritchard makes the point that talk of ‘fiscal union’ is premature, no new agreements have been reached this weekend, and the chat about some major breakthrough around fiscal or banking union are false.

    He concludes – “Almost everything Angela Merkel is talking about already exists. She has dressed up an old arrangement as if it were new.
    The European Commission knows this perfectly well. Everybody is pretending there was a ground-breaking deal this week to maintain appearances. This is the usual EU smoke and mirrors.
    Perhaps I am being slow-witted, or the Rioja has finally addled my brain. Can anybody enlighten me what exactly has changed?”

  46. Why did I put an apostrophe in Evans?

    Typical Tuesday.

  47. Reading the posts on here you would think the Nation was a republic. Thankfully it is actually overwellmingly Royalist as confirmed by the Opinion Polls. Enjoy a Right Royal Tuesday

  48. @ALEC

    “I’m sure it isn’t just me who is picking up a sense of disengagement from the jubilee.”

    “What we seem to have had is a completely London centric event ”

    Was there a jubilee then? I thought the Bond film was out of season. Actually. I’m a monarchist, but not a ‘celebrate the anniversary of whatever’ ist. “Well done Queenie; hope you’re fit and well.” – that’s the jubilee past for me.

  49. @CHRISLANE1945

    I have taken the trouble to read some of the Paul Krugman (spelling) stuff that has been welcomed by many on the left. I agree with some of his analysis but as i expect you would realise I do not agree with his solutions.

    I know some will say it is like sacriledge to disagree with a left wing winner of the Nobel Prize but then we all have our favourite Nobel Laureates. Mine happens to be Milton Friedmann who won his prize in 1976, inspired both reagan and Thatcher and was a true intellectual freedom fighter!

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