It’s a bank holiday weekend, so there’s no YouGov/Sun daily poll tonight (or indeed tomorrow). However, there are two new polls conducted before the weekend, from AngusReid and Survation.

Angus Reid was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, and has topline figures, with changes since before the local elections, of CON 29%(nc), LAB 45%(+4), LDEM 9%(-2), UKIP 8%(nc). The sixteen point lead is the largest Labour have shown this Parliament, but Angus Reid have tended to show bigger Labour leads than average, so that’s not unexpected given the increased leads other companies have been showing.

Survation meanwhile has topline figures, again with changes from just before the local elections, of CON 29%(-1), LAB 37%(nc), LDEM 13%(+0.5), UKIP 12%(+3), Others 10%(-2).


189 Responses to “New Angus Reid and Survation polls”

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  1. 16 pts

  2. An 18 point lead has got to be the largest gap shown since before the election hasn’t it? I can’t remember the last time had an 18 point lead.

  3. NICKP.
    Do you believe the 16 point lead?

    Are the other figures accurate as well?

  4. If I’m honest, Chris, the survation poll looks like I would actually expect!

  5. Angus Reid summary is here:

    http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/45001/labour-party-increases-advantage-over-conservatives-in-britain/

    with click-through for full report (which shows figures over recent months) and tables. F/w 30-31 May.

    For the second month in a row, only one third of Britons (33%) approve of David Cameron’s performance as Prime Minister, and just one-in-five (21%) are satisfied with the way Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg is handling his duties.

    Labour leader Ed Miliband’s approval rating is now 32 per cent, matching his total in October 2011.

    Note that AR ask about performance as PM/Deputy PM/Leader of the Opposition. Rather than as Party leader(s). Nett scores are Cameron -24, Clegg -46, Miliband -15 (he still gets more ‘Not sure’s than the other two)

  6. Is Angus Reid credible?

  7. @SocialLiberal (from the previous thread)
    The inclusion of Canada in the 1st constituency of French residents abroad posed a problem, because the Canadian government did not want to accept that an election concerning a foreign country be organized within its territory (the same problem had occurred in the past with Italy and Tunisia). After negotiations, there has been a tacit agreement: Canada does not recognize “de iure” such an election, but on the other hand it cannot prevent French citizens to visit their consulate, so the vote took place after all. For the record, the Socialist-Green alliance led the UMP by 28 points in Canada (46 to 18), whereas in the USA its lead is narrower (33 to 26).

  8. “@ chrislane1945

    Is Angus Reid credible?”

    As has been pointed out before, apparently AR appear to use a slightly different method of dealing with the don’t knows. I can’t remember exactly what was said.

  9. @ Virgilio


    The inclusion of Canada in the 1st constituency of French residents abroad posed a problem, because the Canadian government did not want to accept that an election concerning a foreign country be organized within its territory (the same problem had occurred in the past with Italy and Tunisia). After negotiations, there has been a tacit agreement: Canada does not recognize “de iure” such an election, but on the other hand it cannot prevent French citizens to visit their consulate, so the vote took place after all. For the record, the Socialist-Green alliance led the UMP by 28 points in Canada (46 to 18), whereas in the USA its lead is narrower (33 to 26).”

    Not too surprising. I remember this French kid in college who was very anti-Bush but very much pro-Sarkozy. I didn’t quite get it (still not sure that I do).

    Given the historical difficulties with Quebec within Canada and all the hard feelings of those in Quebec towards France (not to mention the whole Constitution Repatriation with Great Britain issue), I can understand why Canada wouldn’t want to have a French Election on their territory. The agreement sounds fairly reasonable though.

    I’m fine with laws here that prevent non-citizens from voting (actual non-citizens, not non-citizens as defined by the Florida Governor’s Office). But I actually kinda feel like perhaps Canadians and Mexicans should be allowed to vote in our elections as they are affected by just about everything we do. Often adversely. Allowing Canadians and Mexicans (who aren’t dual citizens with the U.S.) to vote in U.S. elections will NEVER happen in my lifetime. But it might be more fair.

  10. Anthony,

    Please explain why I’ve gone on moderation? I assume you’ve also put the two posters who engaged in the leftwing people are miserable people discussion, which I remind you I stayed out of?

  11. I think all of these figures are credible – different methodologies, different time frames and margin of error.

    I do believe that Tory VI will consistently slide into high 20’s as the recession continues, and Leveson gets his teeth into Cameron and Osbourne over the decision to appoint Hunt – who had been persistently lobbyng them on one side of the Murdoch enquiry as arbiter – clearly a decision lacking judgement and the trials of Coulson unfold – he looks damned in the perjury case in Scotland whilst he was in number 10 ( astonishingly little made of it in the UK press – our parochialism up here is as nothing compared to London parochialism – surely the most parochial city in the Uk) – and he still has the phone hacking trials.

    Errors of judgement and stalling economies do not win elections. A hard road back for DC and Tories here. They need a rapid economic turnaround ( unlikely) and to be perceived as being competent elsewhere( even more unlikely).

  12. A 16% lead is v good for Labour, with most polls giving Labour a double digit leads, admittedly not as high as this 16%, it looks like a landslide for Labour of about 110.

    The % move since the general election:

    C -6.9%, L +11.6%, LD -13.6%

    Is there generally a wisdom that says the governing parties always gain a support during the election campaign?

    Is there also generally a wisdom that says the governing parties drop support in each subsequent election?

    If both of these are true does that suggest that the Tories maximum is a few points below 36.9 and a few points above 30?

  13. I see that AW has updated averages. Latest UNS projection 112 Lab majority.

  14. @SocialLiberal
    The issue of non dual-citizenship voters participating in the electoral procedure of the country they live in is dealt with in different ways in various EU countries. The most common solution is to allow them to vote in local elections, but not in national ones. In both France and Greece, EU citizens can vote in local elections. As far as non-EU citizens are concerned, in Greece they can also vote for local elections if they meet certain conditions (5 years or more of permanent residents, taxpaying etc). In France they cannot, but Hollande will probably change this and adopt the Greek paradigm, which also occurs in other countries, e.g. the Netherlands. European Parliament elections are a special case. EU citizens can vote in the country they live in, and in this case they must indicate if they choose to vote for the parties of their “original” country, and in this case they must go to their consulate one day before election day, or for the parties of their country of residence, in which case they go to the voting booths of this country and vote on the basis of a special list where they are registered. Now, for bi-nationals things are a little more complicated. If on EP election day I am in Greece, I obviously vote for the Greek parties as a Greek citizen, but as a French citizen, I cannot choose between the options I mentioned above, because I cannot vote twice for the Greek parties, so the only option I have is to vote for the French parties in the consulate one day before the election. Things are getting even more complicated if on election day I am, say, in Belgium, because I permanently live there (it is not a random example, I have actually lived in Brussels for almost a year). What happens then? As a Greek citizen, I have again two options, voting for Greek parties of for Belgian ones, and as a French citizen I can vote either for the French or for the Belgian parties. The limitation is that I cannot make the second choice twice: if I vote for Belgian parties as a French citizen, then as a Greek one I must vote for the Greek parties, or the other way round (it has not actually happened, because the year I lived in Brussels was not a EP election year, but this is the way that it would be).

  15. Merkel doesn’t read my UKPR comments but she won’t be able to avoid similar comments made by Fischer:

    Joschka Fischer, the former German foreign minister, warned that his country was at risk of destroying itself and Europe for the third time in a century, and gave Merkel just a few months to change course and save the currency. In an article published yesterday, he wrote: “Germany destroyed itself – and the European order – twice in the 20th century. It would be both tragic and ironic if a restored Germany, by peaceful means and with the best of intentions, brought about the ruin of the European order a third time.”
    ————————————-
    The euro will not be allowed to crash & burn; & no eurozone countries will be leaving.
    8-)

  16. well it appears the Labour lead is still steadily growing, and the Conservatives are being pushed closer to the uncomfortable under 30% position. Surprised to see UKIP as high as 12%, 8% seems more in line with the crowd.

    It seems Europe is accepting it’s going to have to soon make a big decision it’s been artfully ignoring for a long time: does it all break up, or does it move further along the line to USE (United States of Europe)? And if they decide the latter, whoever is in power here will have to make an important decision too (do we like that or not?) Europe probably isn’t going to go away, and UKIP will prosper as a result.

  17. AMBER STAR.

    Fiscal Union looks like being established, according to BBC

  18. Personally I think the approval rating is the more important figure. Anybody know what it is for these polls? IMHO -57 is fatal for the government and I think we are way off this at the moment. Well done Anthony Lab majority now accurately reflects recent trends in the polls.

  19. I think these figures are getting increasingly silly – as is the hysteria being displayed by Labour voters. I still say 40% of the voting public do not even know who Ed Miliband is, let alone make him PM.

    Still, the “Miliband Delusion” suits me.

  20. Beggars belief if it’s true :-

    A group of long-term unemployed jobseekers were bussed into London to work as unpaid stewards during the diamond jubilee celebrations and told to sleep under London Bridge before working on the river pageant.

    h ttp://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/jun/04/jubilee-pageant-unemployed#start-of-comments

  21. I really don’t know how anyone can confidently assert that the Eurzone will not break up. Clearly, the current EZ will cease to exist and will turn into something very different – possibly a full fiscal union.

    However, people should bear in mind that there has never been a successful currency union that has survived, unless it is accompanied by full political union into a single nation. It just hasn’t happened.

    Indeed, where single countries with single currencies have broken up (Yugoslavia, Czecheslovakia, USSR, UK at some stage) the single currency soon always breaks up as well.

    You cannot have a fully functional single currency operating across independent states. Europe has been trying it since around 1830, and has failed every time. It will fail again. Unless the people of the EZ agree to pool their financial sovereignty and eventually political sovereignty.

    The Euro will survive in some form, possible for some time, although I doubt all current members will remain. But at some stage the Euro will fail, and this current euro already has.

  22. Bernard:

    Methinks you protest too much: the figures are simply what they are and I hadn’t spotted any Labour “hysteria”. Could it just be you that don’t like them?

    “The Milband Delusion” – now that sounds like a film series: what is it actually?

    Paul.

  23. @ Bernard

    Milliband is a fairly conventional party leader. He would make a reasonable stab as PM.

    I think if you are expecting some awakening of the people to see Miliband as some unelectable idiot – it will be a long wait. He is not inspiring, not cloyingly PR driven like Blair and DC ( who is rapidly being exposed as a very weak leader with poor judgemant and divisive ineffective social policies)
    I suspect that by 2015 EM will be seen as a slightly awkward rather nondescript but safe pair of hands ( a British Hollande if you will) and that may prove a vote winner against atarnished charlatan. He is closer in the public’s evaluation of temperament and perception to Major I think rather than Brown or Kinnock. He will not be weapon for the Tories and may turn out to be a surprisingly effective voice.

  24. I bet the two Eds won’t need about 5 attempts at a budget, come the day. ;-)

  25. I want to go to sleep: what IS the “Milband delusion”??

    Is it where a lot of people think he’s rubbish and but are starting to think he might just about be ok after all?

    Or wot….??

  26. @alec – “I really don’t know how anyone can confidently assert that the Eurozone will not break up.”

    The London based commentariat have been predicting an imminent break up for about four years now. Pronouncements from the Tory half of the coalition are being interpreted as “wishing ill” on the eurozone countries.

    Look at it another way. It surprises me how quickly it became the accepted wisdom on this side of the ditch: that the euro was doomed from the start.

    Funnily enough, the odd European think tank has been confidently predicting an imminent catastophic collapse of the Anglo-Saxon economic model. ;)

  27. Far be it from me to counsel caution for our Leftie friends on here, but really, do you think that 2 yrs into a 5 yr term, it is possible to even guess at a result 3 yrs hence, I just don’t get it. Whilst I can understand the analysis of a snapshot, or series of snapshots, I simply cannot understand the need to fast forward 3 yrs from today’s polling, why do you do it ? Surely you can’t possibly believe that in tomorrow’s world things will remain the same, or trends will inevitably continue. We have all seen an event change the narrative, I suggest that there will be many more game changers before the next election, and, as a Tory, I expect a few will go our way.
    By the way, tonight I experienced, along with thousands, if not millions, more, a profoundly emotional experience. I was in the Mall, just in front of the main stage, and we witnessed a wonderfully moving tribute to the Queen, all around me there were people of all ages and nationalities united in their happiness for her Maj., great talent on the stage, great appreciation off it, but all there to support the great lady. If I here the miserable losers that want an elected head of state, ( President Kinnock/ Thatcher / etc ) I will take their name and add it to my little list ! :-)

  28. @OZWALD

    My God!

  29. Sorry………..Typo, ” if I hear the miserable losers” etc. :-)

  30. OZWALD…………..They’ve got nothing better to do, why didn’t they volunteer ?

  31. I’d like to say that Labour have won elections and got into power before (admittedly at times with very small majorities) without having a Tony Blair or a similarly charismatic leader. So have the Conservatives.

    Some of the time both have to rely on the incumbent making a botch of things, “time for a change”, or a nasty recession that is nobodies fault, but whoever is in charge at the time cops the blame.

    Maybe now people have had enough of charismatic leaders who turn out to be not so good as they first appeared? We’ll find out sooner or later.

  32. @ Ken

    To some extent I do think it possible to extrapolate 3 years hence –
    1. the libdem vote will be fractured – halved by its coalition dalliance and much of that will go to labour
    2. the economy cannot recover significantly by the next election – the euro unwind / present austerity measures virtually ensure that any growth will be slow and patchy
    3. Cameron has many obstacles to overcome and his track record to date on dealing with adversity with any degree of sureness has been found to be lacking
    4. Labour are this far ahead with a leader who has been assaulted since his election from Blairites within and the entire gamut of the press who remains unpoular – therefore the leader factor is probably at its worst for Labour at the moment – and will worsen for the tories in the years to come.
    I think the underlying factors as detailed above make a re-election of the Tories highly unlikely – at best Cameron will recover to his previous election vote ( and if he does this given the economic situation he inherited and the constraints of coalition government that would genuinely be mightily impressive) whereas at worst the Labour party will hold on to its vote from last time with an additional 10% of disgusted ex libdems.

    All of this I suggest makes a Labour victory extremely likely in 2015. Whether that ends up as Milliband 15 seats short of a majority or a three figure landslide remains to be seen. FWIW I suspect a fall over the line OM in single figures.

  33. @ Ken
    “They’ve got nothing better to do, why didn’t they volunteer ?”

    To sleep under the bridge?

  34. KEITHP……We are in the era of the professional politician, styled by guru and presented by spinner, superficial and driven by personal ambition, sad really, but, they are all the same.

  35. ABERDEENCYNIC……I’ve slept under bridges, hitch-hiking around the world as a student, it’s okay if you are a winner. :-)

  36. As if this jubilee weekend could not get any better…UKIP at 12 % hip hip hooray hip hip hooray hip hip hooray!

    Surely being more than a third of the Tory vote means they are becoming too big for the Tories to ignore. To put it in perspective, were UKIP to gain 8 of the Tory points the two parties would be equal. Surely some heads are popping at Tory HQ. It is only survation, but even so.

  37. I suspect closer fiscal union to be inevitable across Europe.

    No-one wants it but the Euro is a monster which drives the logic of this solution. It will prove politically devastating I think for Merkel.

    The alternative – expulsion of Greece followed by continued attacks on Spain, Italy and Portugal from the money markets will leave europe unable to recover or move forward with a currency constantly under siege and at constant risk of fragmentation. Expect to see Eurobonds, shared debts, and a single Economic strategy.

    The Germans won’t like it – but then again the alternative of a shrinking Eurozone being undercut by former members with cheaper money and labour costs would be equally unpalatable.

    Glad the UK is well out of it – Thanks to GB possibly ( No – thought not). A UK EU vote must surely come at some point soon. We have had no plebiscite in almost 40 years and what was voted for then in no way resembles what we have now. I suspect that the greater integration or the collapse of the Eurozone will make some kind of referendum on EU membership inevitable ( IMO it’s long overdue)

  38. THE ICEMAN…………You may be right, but of course you may also be wrong, no-one can predict the future, we all, to a certain extent, plan ahead, but we also know that the best laid plans sometimes go awry. Politics is the least reliable game of all to call, all it needs is a game changer, that could happen tomorrow, a death, a disaster, a war, you name it, as a Tory, I am confident that we will keep the bond markets happy, and thus interest rates low, and thus remain a safe haven for the world’s money. And since the biggest part of our economy is managing other peoples money, and risks, I’ve made a good living from it to be sure, I can only see the present strategy working. I could of course be wrong. :-)

  39. Manufacturing is no longer the cornerstone of our economy, I doubt if it ever was, we are a trading nation first and foremost. There are just too many of us, we can manage the problem as it stands, but of course there will be losers, those not prepared to accept reality and scale back their ambitions, will find it unpalatable, t’was ever thus. When we recover, then we can then call upon that resource to fill the need, it’s really up to the individual, to move or to stand still. People travel halfway around the world to come here, when they arrive they will do anything for a start, good luck to them, they will succeed, of course, the indigenous layabout can’t see the signs, tough. :-)

  40. The present polling was predicted by many on here quite some time ago, it is therefore, no surprise. However, when it comes to the future it is anybody’s guess, the economy could improve, everyone else could suffer, Britain could be a beacon among ashes. The question will be, ‘ why hand it over to Labour, what can they offer, after all, didn’t they have their chance ?’ We are in rough seas, under control, why change the crew ? Can we trust them ?

  41. @Alec

    You said “…However, people should bear in mind that there has never been a successful currency union that has survived, unless it is accompanied by full political union into a single nation. It just hasn’t happened…Indeed, where single countries with single currencies have broken up (Yugoslavia, Czecheslovakia, USSR, UK at some stage) the single currency soon always breaks up as well…”

    Um, the USSR wasn’t a single country, as the citizens of Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, the Ukraine, and Georgia will loudly attest. However, you raise an instructive example, since the 15 contituent republics of the USSR were united by a single currency (the rouble) and that currency union did stay stable until the biggest part (Russia) started excessively printing roubles post USSR collapse. That excessive printing caused an inflation spike which the other republics evaded by coining their own currencies. The question is not whether a currency union can remain stable without further union: they can and they have. The question is whether such a currency union is desirable or worth the price, and arguably that is the question the Euro is failing.

    Incidentally, the collapse of the rouble zone was the inspiration for one of my whimsically-named Euro collapse scenario (the “Open Europe” one, where one country unilaterally prints Euros en masse without permission)

    Additionally, after Ireland separated from the UK, the two states ran a currency union without political union: the punt was pegged to the pound for nearly 50 years (from memory). That’s why Ireland decimalised the punt on the same day the UK decimalised the pound.

    Regards, Martyn

  42. @The Iceman

    You said “…I suspect closer fiscal union to be inevitable across Europe…No-one wants it but the Euro is a monster which drives the logic of this solution…Expect to see Eurobonds, shared debts, and a single Economic strategy…”

    I know fiscal union is continually advocated as a solution, but I’d’ve doubts as to its political feasibility. For such a unified EZ17, you’d need 17 governments to say “yes” and frankly I’m dubious. The current situation is fluid and I have no idea what happens next, but given a straight choice of Euro collapse vs full EZ17 union, I’d say the former was most probable.

    Regards, Martyn

  43. Good Morning All, very early by the sea.
    Although not at all a royal supporter, the harmony of the crowds and the impressive organisation of the events and displays was very pleasant to witness.

    SOCALLIBERAL.
    Yes, as Ken and others point out here, life can be very harsh for the people here who are suffering.

  44. @Ken
    Well said I applaud your posts on this thread
    @Alec
    We disagree about most things buy I agree totally on your post re Europe
    @ Peter Cairns
    In case you missed it I made my final comments on our yesterdays discussion at the end of the previous thread.

  45. Back from holiday and i see its business as usual

    Labour lead at 10-14 points

    General Election next week

    EdM will be our new PM,

    LOL

  46. Good Morning Blue Bob, THE OTHER HOWARD, Colin and all.

    The terms of trade in politics have shifted IMO, credo.

    Mr Krugman’s (spelling/) analysis seems to have struck a chord.

    I think the Euro area will survive, in a more integrated fashion than now.

  47. A good summary of the Keynesian strategy on overcoming recession is that the more bridges you build the fewer unemployed people have to sleep under them.

  48. @ Virgilio


    The issue of non dual-citizenship voters participating in the electoral procedure of the country they live in is dealt with in different ways in various EU countries. The most common solution is to allow them to vote in local elections, but not in national ones. In both France and Greece, EU citizens can vote in local elections. As far as non-EU citizens are concerned, in Greece they can also vote for local elections if they meet certain conditions (5 years or more of permanent residents, taxpaying etc). In France they cannot, but Hollande will probably change this and adopt the Greek paradigm, which also occurs in other countries, e.g. the Netherlands. European Parliament elections are a special case. EU citizens can vote in the country they live in, and in this case they must indicate if they choose to vote for the parties of their “original” country, and in this case they must go to their consulate one day before election day, or for the parties of their country of residence, in which case they go to the voting booths of this country and vote on the basis of a special list where they are registered. Now, for bi-nationals things are a little more complicated. If on EP election day I am in Greece, I obviously vote for the Greek parties as a Greek citizen, but as a French citizen, I cannot choose between the options I mentioned above, because I cannot vote twice for the Greek parties, so the only option I have is to vote for the French parties in the consulate one day before the election. Things are getting even more complicated if on election day I am, say, in Belgium, because I permanently live there (it is not a random example, I have actually lived in Brussels for almost a year). What happens then? As a Greek citizen, I have again two options, voting for Greek parties of for Belgian ones, and as a French citizen I can vote either for the French or for the Belgian parties. The limitation is that I cannot make the second choice twice: if I vote for Belgian parties as a French citizen, then as a Greek one I must vote for the Greek parties, or the other way round (it has not actually happened, because the year I lived in Brussels was not a EP election year, but this is the way that it would be).”

    That sounds quite complicated. But thank you for informing me.

    Embarassing as it is to admit, I don’t know what the rules are for Americans living abroad. They’d have to be citizens of course in order to vote. But I don’t know where their vote actually gets counted. Like the Mormon colonies in Mexico where Mitt Romney’s family is from. They get to vote but to which state do their votes get counted? I don’t know.

  49. A few trolls around this morning. Best remember the advice we are given from time to time – “Do not feed the trolls”

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