It’s a bank holiday weekend, so there’s no YouGov/Sun daily poll tonight (or indeed tomorrow). However, there are two new polls conducted before the weekend, from AngusReid and Survation.

Angus Reid was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, and has topline figures, with changes since before the local elections, of CON 29%(nc), LAB 45%(+4), LDEM 9%(-2), UKIP 8%(nc). The sixteen point lead is the largest Labour have shown this Parliament, but Angus Reid have tended to show bigger Labour leads than average, so that’s not unexpected given the increased leads other companies have been showing.

Survation meanwhile has topline figures, again with changes from just before the local elections, of CON 29%(-1), LAB 37%(nc), LDEM 13%(+0.5), UKIP 12%(+3), Others 10%(-2).


189 Responses to “New Angus Reid and Survation polls”

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  1. Ken: Good on you.

    OH: Yes you are, though perhaps not in the way you’d prefer.

    Was very moved by the Queen despite misgivings about anyone born to inequality – in whichever direction – rather than by dint of their own skill, effort etc.

    We’re a funny country but I can’t think of any other nationality I’d want to be – although I imagine most other people in the world would say the same.** Wish we hadn’t imported whooping from America though – they’d be very welsome to have it back as far as I’m concerned.

    WOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    WAY TA GO !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    yuk.

    ** I mean about their own country……………………

  2. Rich
    Never read Sun Tzu then, eh?

  3. Kenneth

    A nd a good choice too for the sophisticated palate!!

  4. REGINALDMAUDLING……….. :-)

  5. This is a bit worrying. Think George Osborne should get his officials to look into this asap.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/9312513/UK-banks-sitting-on-40bn-of-undeclared-losses.html

  6. @ Alec [Much belated response.]

    I did smile at the congruence between your posts on wind farms & your link to Tim Yeo’s call for local communities to be “bribed” [his word] to take them on.

    Presumably you are aware that Yeo has come in for a fair amount of flak over the last two years for
    (a) Opposing wind farms in his own constituency, though this is not necessarily inconsistent with bribing others to take them.
    (b) His not inconsiderable earnings as a director of Green Energy companies, which of course have been properly declared.

  7. This YT vid is essential viewing for anyone who wants to be informed about the possible cause of the worlds economic problems.

    This link is for the 2 hour documentary. There is a shorter version available on YT.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XcGh1Dex4Yo

  8. @Paul Croft & Ann Miles
    Many Thanks

  9. @ Woodsman

    “Jon Stewart on the Jubilee, unmissable….”

    That was hilarious. Especially John Oliver’s commentary on CNN. Lol.

    @ The Other Howard

    Krugman is liked by those on the left but some on the right basically agree with him like David Frum who was a top guy in the Dubya Administration. Frum has been critical of Obama too even though he is advocating for Keynsianism.

  10. I think several of you guys are being far too hard on Charles (IIIrd). Reactionary ? Really ? Your evidence? Compared with which other members of the House of Windsor ? His father ? I mean .. please … I vote Labour but I’m not exactly expecting members of our Royal Family to be Reds ! On environmental issues Charles is more radical (and honest) than any of the mainstream parties. OK his (not very) private life hasn’t been pretty but Edward VII was massively worse. As far as I can see Charles was sent to a vile school which destroyed his self confidence for many years and he then fell in love with a woman who wasn’t thought to be suitable. Give Charles a break. He works as hard as his mother. He spends most of his time working for others. He is sensitive, caring, misunderstood and, yes, a bit eccentric. But he gets no credit. Unfair.

  11. From BBC Scotland on one of the few street parties in Scotland –

    The organiser of the street party, a New Zealander, Jane Smith, said it was “a wonderful community opportunity and a wonderful opportunity to celebrate the Queen’s Diamond Jubilee.”

    Others were not so sure.

    One local resident, Abigail Burnyeat, was enjoying herself but she would not proclaim the event as a ringing endorsement of the monarchy.

    “It’s a celebration of community,” she said, adding: “I wouldn’t examine it too closely.”

    When Ms Burnyeat explained this to her four-year-old son Alasdair, he considered it for a moment before pronouncing:

    “I think we should have a party to celebrate the lives of the dinosaurs.”

    Alasdair shows great promise!

  12. The last sentence is mine – not part of the article!

  13. @ Lefty Lampton

    “That great American President: How many times did he run a balanced budget?”

    They say not to speak ill of the dead right? I have to remember that lesson sometimes with that man.

  14. @ Old Nat

    You don’t have any relatives in Wisconsin do you?

  15. @ OldNat

    Well thank goodness we of Wales celebrated the Jubilee with a lot more enthusiasm than Scot Nats!

    Maybe we should recalculate distribution of English wealth to Scotland and Wales according to a new formula based on the number of Jubilee parties per head of population. YEEEEEEEEEEEES !

    Only teasing….

  16. Now, how’s this for democracy? Estimates currently are in today’s Wisconsin Special Election that Dane County will have 119% voter turnout. There are still 30 minutes till the polls close there (though with turnout that high, there may be some last minute judicial orders to extend polling hours) so it could be even higher. Shocking to me. But good for democracy.

    I can’t focus on anything that I need to do or get done this evening because I’m suddendly enveloped in all this. Given early exit polling numbers, I suspect this could be a very close election.

  17. @ Old Nat

    “I think we should have a party to celebrate the lives of the dinosaurs.”
    ——————————
    We were! ;-)

  18. @ Old Nat

    “One local resident, Abigail Burnyeat, was enjoying herself but she would not proclaim the event as a ringing endorsement of the monarchy.”

    It’s sort of like how I attended my university’s Presidential Inaugural Ball in 2004. I didn’t go to celebrate Dubya, I went for the festivity and fun of it. It was a real let down of an event. Almost everyone in attendance was severely depressed over Dubya’s reelection victory. And there was nothing of note about it (I mean I was expecting a giant ice sculpture of the President with the assumption that the party would be over when it melted down! Didn’t happen).

    Oh so you’ll enjoy this. I’ve got MSNBC on right now and Ed Schultz (who I’m not a huge fan of) was interviewing a Wisconsin State Senator who voted for the original collective bargaining law back in…..wait for it….1959. I do believe that this State Senator is older than you are. :)

  19. Wow, polls closed 36 minutes ago. Exit polls showed an exact 50-50 split in the recall race in Wisconsin. For background on this race, Governor Scott Walker (R-WI) is kind of like a combination of Margaret Thatcher and Richard Nixon. With a little bit of Dubya mixed in (so I’ll say he’s 45% Thatcher, 45% Nixon, and 10% Bush….and he does look a little like George Osborne).

    But here’s some fun news. Exit polls asked about presidential preference. The exit poll results show that Obama had 54% of the vote, Romney had 42%. (Too bad the election isn’t being held today). It’s a key swing state. In 2000, Al Gore won there by just over 5500 votes. In 2004, John Kerry won there by just over 11000 voters. Now in 08′, Obama won 56%-42%. But it is expected to return to a close state this year. But exit polling today is not showing that.

  20. Good morning all!

    @Paul Croft Thanks, it gives me a nice feeling to be appreciated by the left.
    @Amber Star You seem to be referring to the Royal family as dinosaurs if so then I suspect there will a King or Queen on the British throne long after both you and I are dead.
    @SOCALLIBERAL
    I appreciate that Krugman has followers on the right as well as left. I was just saying that I preferred Milton Friedman’s approach to economics.

  21. Well the bad guys won tonight in Wisconsin with Governor Walker (Mr. Thatcher-Nixon) being retained in office and that’s depressing news. (Although I’m not sure how much longer he’s likely going to last in office what with the ongoing federal investigation). I’m melancholy about the whole thing really. It’s a victory of big corporate money against public sector labor unions. It’s picking on the little guy and to me, very unfair. I’ve been listening to Enya to ease my pain.

    But the Dems apparently did win control of the Wisconsin State Senate by recalling one GOP Senator. This means that for the rest of this legislative term, the Governor will be hamstrung in further attempts to destroy the labor unions.

    I voted today too (well actually a few weeks ago) but in nothing newsworthy or noteworthy. I didn’t really have any contested races to vote in and everyone I voted for locally is winning. Strangely enough, most of my judicial votes are winning too. Including a vote for a candidate who’s victory 6 years ago made me nauseous (after I had voted for the very candidate).

  22. Interesting news from the Eurozone..
    “The European Commission on Wednesday will unveil new proposals designed to stop taxpayers’ money being used to bail out failed banks.

    They aim to ensure losses are borne by bank shareholders and creditors and minimise costs for taxpayers.”
    Which sounds like quite a good plan – given the banking crisis that is going on throughout the Eurozone.

    “The changes will not be introduced before 2018.”
    When the banking crisis will be over?

  23. R Huckle

    “Think George Osborne should get his officials to look into this asap.”

    That’s the LAST thing anyone should do! The whole subprime mortgage disaster was caused by “people looking into it” and not liking what they found.

    It’s no secret that there is a lot of unresolved debt in the system, fortunately noone knows exactly where this debt will end up.

    The longer we can put off opening Pandora’s box the more time the banks have to recapitalise and the less we have to worry about this debt.

    It might seem counterintuitive but those are the rules of banking!

    Debt for banks is only a problem once people start “looking into things”. Simply seek a nod and vague assurances and everything will carry on working.

  24. Oh and as I go to bed, my favored candidate in an Assembly race that I can’t even vote in is trailing in 4th place. How can the best candidate be in last place? It makes no sense (rationally anyway). Oh well, maybe hwen I wake up and things finish getting counted, the results will look different.

    My Assemblywoman (who I happilly voted for) is currently leading with 70.2% of the vote. :)

  25. @ALAN

    Totally agree on the “not looking at things” line. More defined benefits pension schemes were killed when the rules on reporting them as future debt were introduced than were ever touched by the so-called Brown pension tax. In most cases they were entirely viable schemes before, and oddly closing them put them in a worse financial position, not a better one (trustees required to go for poorer investments with zero risk).

  26. @ALAN & @ THESHEEP

    Your posts confirm my view that the vid in my earlier post accurately portrays the world current economic problems.

    This link is for the 2 hour documentary. There is a shorter version available on YT.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XcGh1Dex4Yo

  27. @Socal : 119% voter turnout

    Did I turn over two pages at once? How’s that possible?

  28. These reported ‘hidden losses’ have been well known about for a long while, even if the precise size and scale of them is not fully clear. I posted a couple of years ago about the scale of losses on commercial property in the UK, which was having a uniquely odd impact of helping avoid evictions and bankruptcies, as lenders were keen not to crystalize their losses by recovering assets where payments were in arrears as this would hurt their balance sheets via big capital write downs. Instead, they maintained the pretence of full value and accepted defaults on loan payments.

    This is the nub f the problem we are facing. For all the right wing talk about debt in terms of the mythical household budget, they always forget to mention that one persons debt is another persons asset. We do have too much debt at present, but with one or two exceptions where state spending is not controlled and tax collection is slack, this is largely due to over valued assets. We need to find a way to realistically revalue these assets over a gentle time period, so the losses are handled slowly and over time, giving both time for asset write downs but also for prices to pick up again.

    In terms of national borrowing, as with all borrowing – if we can borrow at 2% to earn a return of 3%, it would be the most stupid thing in the world – and extremely unfair on our children – not to borrow now.

  29. @OLDNAT

    Have a listen:

    h ttp://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/listen_again/newsid_9726000/9726080.stm

    No mention of William’s education at St. Andrews. A strange bit of commentary.

  30. @Welsh Borderer – ” …a vile school which destroyed his self confidence.”

    The same could be said for Edward VII. The young Bertie was more or less imprisoned in a remote lodge with a clergyman, a soldier and a diplomat – to prepare him for his imperial role. He was not allowed to form friendships with other children because Albert feared this would compromise the principle of absolute impartiality.

    Bertie’s elder sister Victoria was more amenable to Albert’s grand plan (marrying Crown Prince Frederick) for the spread of liberal enlightenment values in a world dominated by Britain and Germany.

  31. Welsh Borderer.

    Charles as Reactionary.

    Taking the definition of “reactionary” as “One opposed to progress” or “One harking back to the status quo ante” then there is ample evidence that Charles fits that description.

    Take his 2010 book “Harmony: A New Way of Looking at Our World”.

    “[Renaissance humanism] began a process of spiritual asset stripping that has now eroded almost completely humanity’s former insights and wisdom.”

    He lambasts the “so-called” Age of Enlightenment as being a turning point when “mechanistic science” took over as the world driving force.

    I’m struggling to think of any adjective but “reactionary” to describe such views. They ignore the fact that “mechanistic science” has given millions of people a material standard of living that was undreamt of. They ignore the fact that these approaches have eradicated obscene and crippling diseases, provided food, shelter and comfort for billions and taken billions from a live of back-breaking toil and servitude. They are a direct reflection of the half-educated neo-Malthusian ramblings of his father who would like to return to Earth as a virus which could wipe out great swathes of humanity, which is seen as the root of the problem.

    And in any case, that is secondary. The point is that his mother has set an example of how to be a modern constitutional monarch. That is by keeping your trap shut and having no public opinions. By nailing his colours to a thoroughly controversial stance, he has set himself up as a divisive influence.

    The modern world doesn’t need a poorly educated monarch telling us how to live our lives. If the monarch wants to do that, then let him or her submit themselves to the rigours of academic and political debate, rather than proclaim ex cathedra.

    The modern world doesn’t want that from its monarch. It requires a someone to wear the robes and visit the empire when necessary. It requires them to please the tourists and make the rest of us feel good about themselves. And, most importantly, it requires them to have absolutely no opinions whatsoever.

    That is why there are…ahhh…interesting times on the way for the monarchy when Liz chucks a seven.

  32. Meanwhile,

    in post-jubilee news (yes folks, it is over)
    Sky is headlining with Baroness Warsi. The Prime Minister has said that everything is OK, the inquiry is just to see if there are ‘any loose ends’ that need to be tied up.

    That’s all sorted out then.

    ;-)

    What will the Jubilee be in 2020 — Ruby?

    God Save The Queen !! I think she’s great !!

    :-)

  33. @ Alec

    “In terms of national borrowing, as with all borrowing – if we can borrow at 2% to earn a return of 3%, it would be the most stupid thing in the world – and extremely unfair on our children – not to borrow now. ”

    This is absolutely correct in my opinion. If we do not invest now to go for growth, we will come to regret it. Europe stands on the edge of a cliff and it is likely that money will be printed elsewhere to bail it out, to stop another worldwide financial crash. If that were to happen, it could make the 2008 crash look like a case of mild angina.

    The overvaluing of assets is not just a problem in Europe, the US and Japan, but also in places such as Australia. If you look at the Australian economy, it is only the mining sector that is keeping it going. If there were to be a slow down in China, which there appear to be signs of, then we could see Australia go into recession. Have you looked at the property prices and wage inflation in Australia. House prices for first time buyers are more unaffordable that the UK and wage inflation is starting to become a problem.

  34. If you didn’t catch my message here yesterday – just to let you know that the latest in our series on the proposed boundary changes and their effect upon the fortunes of constituencies and political parties is now up – today, our psephologist looks at the South East – follow the link:
    http://www.allthatsleft.co.uk/2012/06/south-east-boundary-changes-part-1-the-isle-of-wight/

  35. Alec and R Huckle,

    This is obviously known to the Govt and would be an easy vote-winner to announce a major spending programme.

    However, that they still prioritise debt and deficit reduction, at the cost of the plummeting polls, strongly suggests there’s more to this than many people are considering.

    Personally, that Labour (the root cause of all our current misery) favour more borrowing and spending is enough to dissuade me that this is the correct path.

  36. OH:

    Just because you continually advertise yourself as “ight” [in both senses] and I have occasionally taken issue with you, does NOT make me a “lefty”.

    I take each issue on its merits, as I see them: you may with to fit into a neat category, I don’t.

  37. @ Steve

    Personally, that Labour (the root cause of all our current misery) favour more borrowing and spending is enough to dissuade me that this is the correct path.
    ———————–
    Academic rigour – 0%
    Partisanity – 100%
    Hyperbole – 110%
    ;-)

  38. @Steve
    “Personally, that Labour (the root cause of all our current misery) favour more borrowing and spending is enough to dissuade me that this is the correct path.”

    Up until the back-end of 2008 the Conservatives (and Lib Dems) promised to match Labour’s spending plans, and the Conservatives were never calling for tighter regulation of the banking sector. I also recall George Osborne pooh-poohing quantitative easing and wanting us to emulate the Irish economy, so I’m not sure there was ever much sign of economic competence or consistency in the alternatives to Labour.
    Besides, in the same way that a stopped clock is right twice a day, if Labour keep saying borrow and spend then they’ll be right at some point, and maybe that time is now.

  39. STATGEEK

    Had a listen:

    William at St Andrew’s is mentioned.

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