Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has topline voting intention figures of CON 32%, LAB 42%, LDEM 8%, Others 17% (including UKIP on 7%). It’s a ten point Labour lead, which is in line with what appears to be an underlying average in YouGov’s polls in the last couple of weeks of about twelve points.

As usual, I will update properly tomorrow.


73 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 32, LAB 42, LD 8, UKIP 7”

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  1. “Will the Jubilee and the Olympics restore Con fortunes?”
    —————-
    Doubt it. No sign if Jubilee fever in my patch many miles North of Watford. BBC coverage has a strong London & South flavour. Must nip off now to feed my ferrets and racing pigeons.

  2. CROSSBAT

    Don’t have anything to say about the young blind aboriginal musician then?

    Politics is all for you isn’t it ?

    re @”It isn’t really that interesting, is it? It’s Tory tub-thumping from a well known Tory tub-thumper writing in a Tory tub-thumping newspaper.”

    It is if it’s true-and Cooper is right.

    Isn’t it true?-is he right?

  3. SMukesh

    Real pressure building up to refer Hunt for an enquiry…The Lib Dems could win some credibility back if they did the right thing.

    A lot of Lib Dems seem to be doing just that according the the Website That Must Not Be Linked To:

    A Lib Dem spokesman refused to say whether Clegg would order his MPs to back Cameron. “No decision has been taken,” he said.

    […] the party’s representative on the culture, media and sport select committee, Adrian Sanders. Sanders said […] “What is the point of having an adviser on the ministerial code if you never use him?”

    Lorely Burt, the Lib Dem MP for Solihull, said Hunt should have offered himself up for investigation.[…] Other senior Lib Dems said they were “astonished” that the prime minister had not referred Hunt to Allan.

    […] there is support within the Lib Dems for the idea of the party’s own amendment, which would centre on the specific allegation that Hunt misled parliament when he claimed in a statement in April to have published all his communications with News Corp and the Murdochs.

    Whether Clegg will cave in as usual in another matter – but equally well, if he does, many of his backbenchers may just vote for the Labour motion (maybe even the odd Lib Dem minister?). Of course if carefully worded you could also get some Tories supporting, both among principled parliamentarians and those wanting to have a go at Cameron.

    The Warsi thing seems less serious. The Telegraph article may be headed Radical past of man at the minister’s side, but all it actually says is:

    In the mid-1990s [Abid Hussain] became involved with the radical Islamic group Hizb ut Tahrir. When or whether he has left is unknown and he could not be reached for comment.

    Mr Hussain became a leading figure in the group, alongside his brother Muhammad Nawaz Khan, who was once its spokesman in Pakistan, where it has been declared illegal.

    […]

    One former leading member said last night that Mr Hussain “is a strong Islamist still, though [he] left Hizb ut Tahrir after being with it for several years”.

    Despite all the horror expressed at Hizb, they’ve always struck me as more comic than dangerous (if the Caliphate was so wonderful and holy, why did it fall apart so quickly?) and being a member for a few years decades ago seems not that serious. The business ties seem more incriminating, but I suspect half the Cabinet would have to cleared out for that level of offence.

  4. VALERIE

    I’m sure Alec will keep an eye on the correct use of Downing Street by DC.

    I expect he has a daily report-like the one we get on UKPR of the weather in Brighton :-)

  5. “Will the Jubilee and the Olympics restore Con fortunes?”
    Perhaps not directly, but I suspect it’ll be positive mood music for the Conservatives. The monarchy is the ultimate symbol of popular establishment and the conservatives (when they are popular) are the party of the popular establishment.
    So I’d be very surprised if there wasn’t some overlap in mood – and positive results at the Olympics could give a boost to Cameron if he’s at the forefront congratulating the winners.

    Except for the predicted fall in Q2 GDP (which may already be ‘priced in’), the coming events should be quite good for the Conservatives, IMHO.

  6. @big tim

    That’d be ideal but I can’t see it happening without PR.

  7. @ Colin

    I expect he has a daily report-like the one we get on UKPR of the weather in Brighton
    ————————————————-

    Er Bournemouth surely? :-)

  8. @ Valerie

    Damn those Republicans peeing on the parade! ;-)

  9. Pablo
    “That’d be ideal but I can’t see it happening without PR.”
    Not necessarily – if the Cons were smart about it, they’d modify FPTP to allow for coalitions.
    So Con-UKIP-Lib could run as ‘National Con’/etc, and the ‘National’ coalition vote would be counted first, with the largest coalition member elected as the MP.

    Essentially keeping all the benefits of FPTP without any split-vote problems, splitting the LibDems down the middle, unifying with UKIP and – on the hope that the left do what they always do and factionalise – a united ‘National Coalition’ right versus a ‘split in to various coalitions’ left.

  10. I keep reading posts saying that links to the Guardian newspaper are not allowed. Is this official UKPR site policy ?

  11. VALERIE

    Ah yes-sorry I always think of them as the same place !

  12. R HUCKLE
    If there is, it’s probably to stop a ‘here’s the latest bad news for the government’ posts which some of us (fingers pointed toward myself) were guilty of.

  13. I can’t see the non Murdoch newspapers giving up on a Hunt inquiry. This will with other issues of trust in government, have an effect on polling.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/jun/02/jeremy-hunt-nick-clegg-investigation

  14. @Ozwald – “GB could say the same about the global banking disaster. But the incumbents have to carry the can.”

    I don’t think you can fairly equate Osborne/Cameron’s position to Brown’s, or at least not just yet.

    Brown was responsible for the UK banking system for a long time before the crash and it’s clear he could have done a great deal more to make the system safer, whereas Osborne has only recently taken over and can’t reasonable carry much responsibility for the overall financial circumstances or for the Euro mess.

    He has been given a bad hand and played it poorly, whereas Brown had the opportunity to trade in his cards early, but declined to do so.

  15. As I thought, there is no blanket ban on Guardian links. As AW has said before, any links should not be used to start partisan debates.

  16. This, from Will Hutton, sums things up quite nicely;

    “Last week was an awesome warning of where go-it-alone austerity can lead. It produced some brutal evidence of where we end up when we place finance above economy and society. The markets are now betting not just on the break-up of the euro but on the arrival of a new economic dark age. The world economy is edging nearer to the abyss, and policymakers, none more than in Britain, are paralysed by the stupidities of their home-spun economics. Yanis Varoufakis, ex-speechwriter for former Greek prime minister George Papandreou and now an economics professor in the US, said last week: “There is precisely zero chance of austerity working. It is the same as thinking you can escape from gravity by waving your arms up and down.””

  17. R HUCKLE

    It’s a little Lefty joke:-

    The ( few) Con supporters point out that the Guardian is biased -hence “he Website That Must Not Be Linked To:”

    You may have noticed that anything from The Times or Daily Mail is similarly discounted out of hand by Lab supporters-though the (few) Con supporters who dare to refer to these two organs , do so with a carefree & open manner, unlike the shifty, nervous readers of the Grauniad.

    It should be mentioned-just to confuse things, that the Daily Telegraph is referred to as the “Torygraph” by lefties , when they quote yet another of it’s attacks on the Government ( as though to emphasise the internal collapse of the Conservative Party which they have been forecasting since time immemorial) .

    Conversely the ( few) Con supporters retort that the Telegraph is not the Torygraph any longer, and should in fact be read with as much caution as is appropriate for the Guardian.

    :-)

  18. R Huckle

    There was never a ban, but at one time Anthony did put Guardian links into moderation automatically to stop the show and tell mentality. If, as seems to be the case, it has stopped, it gives me one less thing to tease him about.

  19. @Colin

    “Don’t have anything to say about the young blind aboriginal musician then?

    Politics is all for you isn’t it ?”

    I was being a bit tongue-in-cheek with the Cameron reference but, yes, I agree with you that the aboriginal musician was very good.

    Much better than Lloyd Webber and Barlow, those two well known Tory Party supporters. I’d have much preferred Billy Bragg and Jarvis Cocker to be in charge of the Queen’s Jubilee musical celebrations, but I suppose they were never realistic contenders amongst Buckingham Palace circles.

    Oops, apologies, I’ve gone all political again! lol

  20. ALEC

    @”This, from Will Hutton, sums things up quite nicely;”

    …….from Hutton’s point of view .

    Mind you, it has to be conceded that this man knows something of the effects of building up unfunded liabilities as a result of running the Industrial Society .

    BY the same token , he will know at first hand something of property development business & the sort of damage it has wreaked in RoI & Spain -through his wife’s company.

    Yes, one can picture him writing those famous attacks on the lack of affordable housing., and the London streets where ” no house on it which cost less than £1 million . . . That is another way in which our middle class are actively causing more inequality.”-from the comfort of his 13th-century Oxfordshire manor house -or indeed the north london pad , both of which he has clearly found affordable , and, one presumes, without impact on “equality”.

    :-)

  21. CROSSBAT11

    @”Oops, apologies, I’ve gone all political again! lol”

    Don’t apologise-it’s who & what you are.

    I’m always interested in the things in which people find a political slant -even music.

    I remember discussing preferences with a lefty friend a few years ago-enthusing about Van Morrison. He launched into a criticism of VM’s unionist politics. I thought-what the f*** has this to do with music?

    …still-since you mention him-I’m glad Billy Bragg isn’t on the menu this weekend -but he doesn’t count as a musician much anyway does he ?:-)

  22. @Colin – “…He launched into a criticism of VM’s unionist politics. I thought-what the f*** has this to do with music?”

    But it’s OK for you to introduce someone’s wife’s business background when discussing an economic theory?

    Fairly typical pots and kettles, I’d say.

  23. ALEC

    Noted-a degree of mea culpa in order-but I do think that Will Hutton’s views on economics & housing may reasonably be placed in the context of his personal conduct in these areas, whereas Van the Man’s music doesn’t appear to have a political context at all.

    By the way, the excellent David Smith’s Economic Outlook in today’s Sunday Times is focused on fiscal policy effect on economic performance. Amongst many interesting observations he makes one which might interest you.

    NIESR ( in the “borrowers” camp) , in May last year forecast 2% growth for 2012. Now it predicts zero.

    The only notable commentary on intervening fiscal policy , is the IMF suggestion that a modest loosening has taken place.

    I expect you will be put off by the source of this view-but will mention it anyway ( Hutton’s isn’t the only view on these matters )

    http://www.centreforum.org/assets/pubs/delivering-growth-while-reducing-deficits.pdf

    You may also be interested in this-subscription I’m afraid, but the executive summary gives a flavour :-

    h ttp://www.nber.org/papers/w18015

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