There are two new polls out tonight ComRes in the Independent has topline figures of CON 34%(+1), LAB 42%(-1), LDEM 11%(nc), Others 13%(nc) – changes are from ComRes’s last telephone poll, which was conducted in late March, just after the budget. No significant change in that poll.

Meanwhile YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 44%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 7%. The eleven point Labour lead is bang in line with the average leads YouGov showed last week.


29 Responses to “New YouGov and ComRes polls”

  1. Looks good

  2. Steady as she goes.

    Just like Paul Croft…..

    (What I really wanted to actually say was ….FIRST! ;-))

  3. Anyone else see Stephen Glover on Newsnight? How he can claim with a straight face that the Daily Mail does not mix news stories with comment is beyond me. It can’t be that hard to separate news from comment, the FT manages it (the only newspaper I enjoy reading). It is simple to report with political stories:

    The Government is doing X
    The Government says this is because X, Y and Z
    The opposition says X, Y and Z

    Comment piece
    Commentator says what the hell he likes.

    I’ve given up reading the Guardian because I’ve experienced first hand that they spin stories to be anti the Tories. In my view that is stupid. There are a lot of things this Government is doing that you can attack without having to write stories claiming they’re doing something when they aren’t and attacking that “non” policy!

  4. it seems the chancellor has done a u-turn on the pasty tax. Probably too late to change the impression that gave.

    However, the steady sinking of the Conservative VI towards 30% seems to have abated. For now at least.

    I can’t help noticing the financial rumblings in Spain and wondering what’s coming. Can’t be good news.

  5. @Big D

    If the newspaper already has a political bias, what difference does it make if you are reading news or comment?
    The attack by Blair on the Indy was entirely self-motivated. He didn’t like the paper’s general slant on the freedom of the individual, the freedom of the Press to hold politicians to account and its volume of storirs on the Iraq War – particularly in the run.up and aftermath.
    There have been some capaigning front pages of the Indy. But that isn’t comment, it’s a campaign.

  6. Big Lab lead in over 60s likely to be an outlier IMHO. More like level pegging surely? LD at 1% in Scotland. Almost off the map though the sample is tiny.

  7. @ Bascz (from the previous thread)

    “As Chris said the line of succession is defined in the Act of Settlement based on the protestant line from Electress Sophia of Hanover

    It is best that there is no disruption to this as to do so is a minefield- It was done in 1936 but I imagine it was easier to do without the focus of publicity

    Apparently, if Charles wants to abdicate the crown it has to be agreed to by all the countries of which he is head of state (although this depends on the individual country). I suppose he could also convert to Catholicism.

    The point is that there is no popular will in the succession or a sense of ‘grant’ – it is covered by law and thus in the event of an abdication is challengeable in the courts.”

    It’s justiciable? That’s pretty wild to think about (especially with the whole political question doctrine). Has the issue ever actually come before a court where a judge or judicial panel has issued an order regarding who’s actually in succession to the throne?

    The abdication in 36′ was good for the English monarchy long term as it put Elizabeth in succession to the throne and she’s been fairly popular.

    @ Chris Lane

    “Good Morning from a very warm Dorset.
    Prince Charles absolutely not designate his successor, nor can the present Monarch.”

    It’s frightfully warm where I am right now too. That’s what I figured but I always wondered if there was some exception or something that allowed for some sort of skipping.

    “On USA:
    Articles here over weekend say that Romney is ahead in polls. is this true?”

    No, not from what I can tell. About a week or two ago, polls were showing a definite movement to Romney. It seems though that in the last week, there’s been movement back to Obama. I think the margin of polls depends on the racial and ethnic make up of the poll.

    @ Anthony Wells (from the previous thread)

    “the succession to the throne is governed by statute since the 17th century. Under the Act of Settlement Charles will become King, but that could be changed by statute, as it was in order to exclude Edward VIII from the throne when he abdicated in 1936.

    In theory, therefore, Parliament can mess about with the succession to its heart’s content (though it needs the consent of other Commonwealth governments too). In practice, I am sure that the only way Charles would be skipped if if he personally decided that he would rather the throne went straight to William.”

    Thank you for this information. I kinda knew about the succession laws and Parliament’s ultimate ability to put into the throne who they want. I didn’t realize that Parliament had to change the law in 1936 to allow King Edward to abdicate the throne. I also didn’t realize that they need permission from other Commonwealth countries to mess around with succession. Interesting stuff.

  8. It would be interesting to get Kellner’s, or Anthony’s, view on the factors deriving from EDB – “Events, Dear Boy”, as against policy or performance in underlying sustained voting intention, in the 3 to 4% variation in the swing between the two main parties apparent in the last 3 months.

  9. Good Morning from a warm sea side.

    Interesting times in Spain and in the Enquiry.

  10. @RAF

    But quite a lot of people who read a newspaper do not read it because of its political biases. In my experience most people who read the Sun do so for the sport or celebrity gossip/scandal. The Sun also claims to be “independent” (see Brookes evidence to Leveson). Also I didn’t mention Blair. He isn’t the only one to call for news and comment to be separated as it used to be. The problem we have is when a newspaper prints a “news” story people tend to believe it. However, in my personal experience I know of nearly all the newspapers where “news” becomes distorted. For example a study on wind farms that concluded there was some warming in the local area around wind farms due to changes in the movement of the air. The Telegraph had the headline “Wind Farms Cause Climate Change”. This is complete and utter nonsense. The climate is much larger than an area around wind farm. A more accurate headline would have been “Wind Farms Cause Minor Warming in Area Wind Farm Built On”.

    It’s also the drip drip of rubbish stories. Think of the EU banning the bendy banana. It only take one MEP to get up and say something stupid in the European Parliament and the eurosceptic press are all over it as if it is all agreed and will be introduced tomorrow!

    It isn’t just on the right though. As I’ve said the Guardian can be guilty of this as well. One recent story claimed the Government was abandoning renewables when it isn’t!

  11. Ozwald
    Tory lead among 18-24 group rather defies logic too.

    Swings and Zimmer frames.

  12. @ Chris Lane

    Since you’re a religious guy, I wanted to share this story with you (which I noticed is in the Daily Mail so it’s definitely making international headlines).

    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/28/nyregion/worshiper-recalls-admission-by-patz-suspect-decades-ago.html

    I’ve never been in a church confessional group so I don’t want to judge (because I don’t know what it’s like to experience something like that and therefore I couldn’t exactly be sure of what my response would be in that kind of situation). But I’m still somewhat flabbergasted by the response. Just because it’s disturbing that a group of people would hear someone confess to a truly horrendous crime and take absolutely no action in response. My only hope is that perhaps those around him were simply mistaken and assumed he was a guy who was an ex-con or out on parole or someone who had been acquited of the crime in court (as I suspect many people who attend these things probably fit into these categories). If you ever participated in this kind of church public confessional group, don’t you think you would have reacted differently?

    I’m curious to get your thoughts.

  13. SoCal

    Many years ago, as a schoolboy at a Catholic school, we had the sanctity of Confession drilled into us.

    The local parish priest told us that if someone came to Confession and confessed to having murdered someone, he, the priest, would not report it to the police. Instead, he would tell the confessor that God’s forgiveness would be withheld until he handed himself in.

    It’s part of a millennia-old tension between the power of organised religion and the power of the secular civic authorities. The Catholic church has historically been very much on the anti-State end of the spectrum. “Render unto Caesar what is Caesar’s and unto God that which belongs to God” is the the watchword. Matters of conscience have historically been seen by the Catholic church as belonging to God and something where the State’s remit is very much of secondary importance.

    That philosophy is one of the reasons why child abuse by Catholic priests was dealt with (sic) in-house without involving the State. It is one of the many reasons why I detached myself from the Catholic church as soon as I was old enough to form my own cogent opinions.

  14. It’s U Turn Tuesday! Reversal of Pasty tax, caravan tax, and secret trials, all in one bound.

    Of course, the big question is why now? Probably because dealing with hot issues in the holiday recess gives things a chance to cool down, making them much less taxing for the government when MPs return.

  15. Toynbee with a piece on Blair, godfather of realpolitik, and the perennial dilemma[s] Labour faces in trying to be heard above the massed foghorns of the right.

    “The question for a party whose purpose is radical change remains the same: how far dare one go? Blair’s answer has always been the same: not very far.”

    h
    ttp://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/may/28/tony-blair-rupert-murdoch-leveson

    She also laments that he did not take the Jimmy Carter “path of virtue” after leaving office, instead of “keeping bad company in a jet-set of plutocrats, none sharing the social concerns he once had.”

    After witnessing the grinding inevitablilty of superpower stategems, which take little notice of a passing President or PM… seeing first-hand how the global elites function, and being accepted by them as an equal… perhaps Blair has just decided to join in and enrich himself – or does he still have an agenda?

  16. So, will the latest set of u-turns leads to closure of pasty-gate, caravan-gate, and an up-tick in VI for C and DC?

    Frankly, it makes sense to change position on these (and the secret trials). Last week I read somewhere (The Telegraph?) that it was the pasty and caravan issues (rather than the 5p reduction to the additional rate of income tax) which had done the most damage to C VI.

    I seriously doubt that people really care that much about these two issues. We shall see, but IMO the reduction n the tax rate was instrumental in the drop in C VI and will persist if only because it has brought about a change in perception.

  17. After all these reversals to huge tax increases on pasties and caravans is LaGarde now going to shiver again over the dire state of the UK economy? Haha!

  18. @Mike N – it was only done so Madge could afford some hot pasties on the buffet this weekend.

  19. What do any of the above comments about newspapers have to do with polls and polling ?

    Don’t such comments risk causing partisan arguments?

    [Yes, they did – AW]

  20. @Oswald, @Lefty L

    In this poll, the 18-24 group is from a tiny sample which YouGov multiply by about 3 in weighting. So there’s every chance of small sample bias there being compounded by reweighting of that bias. By contrast, the size and lack of significant reweighting of the 60+ sample ought to make it a bit more robust.

  21. AW

    I guess humour in a partisan way is not allowed ( in moderation.) ?

  22. It’s very difficult to ignore news stories and levenson and avoid speculating about the effect on voting intention polling.

    But observation persuades me that AW is right…very few things have a direct and obvious effect on regular polls. The veto, the budget omnishambles, LD going into coalition with the Tories…the rest is really mood music and drip drip drip.

    Levenson won’t affect VI directly, but the shadow over Hunt (and others?) might. And I don’t think Blair’s appearance will have any negative affect on Lab’s polling.

  23. @Leftylampton & Phil
    Thanks. Good points from you both. I don’t get carried away with outliers anyway. I have a spreadsheet of YG weekly averages but have not updated it recently. YG has been my gold standard source for quite a while now so I take little notice of other pollsters.

  24. @chrislane1945 – “Romney is ahead in polls. is this true?”

    Latest polling average seems to have Obama ahead by a slim 1.8%, but most news outlets interpret this through a ‘270 or bust’ type electoral map.

    Range atm…

    Obama solid 181-237, leaning 32-66
    Romney solid 131-170, leaning 11-48
    tossup 73-115

    You can start here:

    h
    ttp://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map

    Looking at the Paul Ryan budgetary strategy for Republicans… reducing total government spending to a fraction above that of current defence spending (3% of GDP) by 2050… a shock win for Romney would have major repercussions.

  25. @Socalliberal.

    Catholic priests have secrecy of confession, but this was a Pentecostal church, and I’ve never been to a church that practices confession, so I don’t know how these operate.

  26. @miken

    “So, will the latest set of U-turns leads to closure of pasty-gate, caravan-gate, and an up-tick in VI for C and DC?”

    I was on a train this morning and had look at the fee sheet ‘metro’: damning coverage about the pasty gate U-turn (of which it is only a partial U-turn anyway which makes it an even harder sell IMO). That kind of coverage is priceless for the two Eds (and ConLib disapproval numbers) IMO.

    @chrislane1945 – “Romney is ahead in polls. is this true?”

    They have been in a statistical dead heat for over a month and I cannot see it changing before November: unless something astonishing vis ‘events dear boy’ happens..

    This one really is going to be a squeaker.

    @Billybob

    “Toynbee with a piece on Blair”

    Gave up reading her a long long time ago. Never seems to have anything serious or accurate to write IMO.

  27. Not often I disagree with Anthony but I do on this one.

    The reaction if any to the reversal of the Pastie Tax and caravan VAT is exactly what this site is about.

    I don’t think it is unreasonable to assume that at least some of the current 10%+ Labour lead is down to the poor reaction to the budget and the pressure on Cameron to do something about it from his back benches.

    If we see a recovery of two or three points for the tories then it could well be indicative of them repairing the damage and being seen as less out of touch.

    Although we can never be sure what causes any individual change in VI watching to see if you can link a change to an event is something we all do.

    It is always worth remembering that proximity doesn’t mean causality but I think the parties very much watch the polls trying to discern what actions have what effects.

    If the Tories do partially recover because of this it will be a bit disappointing because with the Euro in crisis a war in Afghanistan, millions unemployed ad a recession there are a lot more important things to focus on the 12p on a bridie…..

    Peter

  28. Peter – BigTim wasn’t referring to Mike comments on the U-turns (which are indeed exactly on topic!), he’s referring to other comments that are no longer displayed.

  29. Peter – Difference being that the media have long forgotten about afghanistan, unemployment is fairly recurrent and so has minimal impact, the euro crisis is so poorly understood by joe public that the crap like a tax on pasties (and subsequent ‘U-turn’ which actually isn’t) gets far more newspaper inches and so has significantly more chance of swaying public opinion…!