Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 42%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 7%. This is the first time YouGov have shown the Labour lead dropping back into single figures since the local elections, and follows a ten point lead yesterday.

I’ll add my normal caveat – it could be the start of YouGov’s bigger Labour leads of up to 14 points that we’ve seen since the local elections falling back a bit… or it could just be normal random sample error.


209 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 34, LAB 42, LDEM 8, UKIP 7”

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  1. Anthony

    Any idea why my 6:29 post is awaiting moderation. You haven’t put a ban on the word Sc*tland have you or on links to the YouGov archive. ;)

  2. Howard,

    You would be surprise, both Angus Robertson and Mike Weir have stopped me at conference and commented that the read my posts (Note- I didn’t say they said they liked them!)

    Truth is, I think this is actually one of the blogs that is most read in Westminster.

    From time to time I’ve posted general comments about what I would do if I was in Cameron’s position. As far as I know he’s never seen any let alone acted on it.

    As to whether he would be doing better if he had I leave up to you?

    Peter.

  3. Howard,

    That’s you, Colin and Roger Mexico ruled out then.

    Oh, and me……

  4. I think it possible that the susceptibility of politicians to hubris , might well be exceeded by that of the contributors to the political blogs which they read.

    Surely a politician would be better informed by listening to his constituents , than by reading the thoughts of amateur political chatterati?

    :-)

  5. Hooded
    I would deem it a great pleasure to have the honour to meet you.

    But then, I also really want to meet W. Shakespeare, I. Newton, and C. Darwin, who really are the greatest Britons, unlike the unbelievably demeaning choices made by the BBC quiz responders.

    Mind you, I would settle for Julie Christie (age shewing)..

  6. Coiln

    Quite.

  7. or Colin even

  8. Hooded Man

    Howard,

    That’s you, Colin and Roger Mexico ruled out then.

    Oh, and me……

    Good heavens, you don’t think DC types and posts his own comments do you? He has Staff.

    Colin

    Surely a politician would be better informed by listening to his constituents , than by reading the thoughts of amateur political chatterati?

    Well DC had the Brookes and the Clarksons over for dinner so he must be terribly well informed. :P

  9. @ Everybody,

    When did Max get banned … my world is shaken!!

  10. Anthony,

    When if at all will we see the poll on Scottish Independence… Oh and who paid for it?

    Peter.

  11. Howard,

    And, of course, you too…….I’d be there as long as Will S doesn’t go on too much….

    (I’m sure you realised I was talking about the secret MP)

  12. Hooded
    Will Self would be welcome as long as he keeps his substances to himself but is willing to stump up for mine (either I’ll be on on best bitter or, if eating, a Chilean Merlot.

    (I’m not proud).

  13. Colin (7:08pm comment)

    I think the problem now is that it looks as if Cameron gave the job of deciding the outcome of the BSkyB bid to someone who he knew had a preference one way. This seems foolish not just on political grounds, but because if the bid had been approved it could lead to legal action. The problem is compounded by his (rightly) taking Cable off the case. If the other points you make are valid, then there should be no need to have done that.

    One thing that has always puzzled me about the situation is that when Cable was disqualified to decision wasn’t moved to another minister in the DTI but to a different Department. I haven’t really seen an explanation of this (or indeed the question raised).

    Anyway, before Anthony raps our knuckles for wandering, there was a rather interesting YouGov poll on the rules that cover the media done earlier this week:

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/2ug29dsdxy/YG-Archives-IPPR-AVRef-MediaRegulation-240512.pdf

    It’s notable for just how much the public want to see current regulation kept or in most cases improved. Almost no one wants to see regulation relaxed.

    While 45% are happy with “the impartiality rules for TV and radio channels”, 29% want them to be stricter. And relevantly here while 44% think “Who owns the UK media should continue to be judged on a case by case basis by Ofcom and the Competition Commission” (no mention of politicians you will note), 34% think there should be fixed limits instead. (There’s also quite a lot of polling on cross-media ownership).

    As far as the Press goes, there is substantial support for stronger controls. 62% think Press regulation should be “through a legally established body” – only 19% want self-regulation. And 94% of both groups think regulation should be ‘Very’ or ‘Fairly strict’. 84% think corrections and/or apologies should be on the same page as the original article. And 53% even think newpapers should be subject to impartiality rules.

    There’s actually very little difference between Party supporters on these issues and what there isn’t always how you would expect. For example Conservative are more likely to want stronger impartiality rules and are more pro-BBC than Labour voters. There’s also a hint that ex-Tories may be keener on regulation, so it could be that this may be something that to a small extent alters voting.

  14. Peter Cairns

    I posted a comment and link back at 6:29 but for some inexplicable reason it’s still in moderation.

    Anyway the table is here:

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/jffftqzozr/YG-Archives-CampaignScotlandinUK-results-120525.pdf

    and you’ll have to wait for my other words of wisdom till Anthony recovers from his night off.

  15. @PeterCairns

    I hope Phil doesn’t mind me reposting a comment of his from back in January, when the Salmond announced his preferred wording:

    Martin Boon, research director for social and government polling at ICM research, said the question was simple but added that his company would “refuse” to ask it as it stands. “This is cheeky really – it suggests that ‘we all agree, don’t you?’ In short, if this were asked in the context of an opinion poll, I would expect to receive some condemnation for it being deemed as imbalanced, loaded and unfair.”

    and

    Chris Eynon, head of pollsters TNS-BMRB, said the question was “leading rather than neutral” and the company “would not use this form of question in any survey or poll”.

    Also one of my post from the same time period:

    Michael Keating, professor of politics at Aberdeen, on PM, explained the difference between a ‘hard’ and a ‘soft’ question:

    Opinion polling consistently points to the fact that any question that mentions separation/leaving/outside the UK is a ‘hard question’ and gets significantly less support than a ‘soft question’ of the type favoured by Salmond, which only mentions being an independent ‘country’ [a further softening of the original wording suggested by SNP which talked about being an independent ‘state’].

    More opinion on the question of the question this time from Professor Robert Cialdini of Arizona on Today:

    Loaded and biased is his verdict on Alex Salmond’s “Do you agree” version… “It sends people down a particular cognitive shute designed to locate agreements rather than disagreements” – (giving the oportunity to agree with something that is assumed in the question to be the prefered option is a one-sided or loaded question).

    Do you agree or disagree? is a balanced question. Asking a one-sided as opposed to an even-handed question can result in a 9% difference in the support for a given proposition.

  16. Adrian B
    @ Everybody,

    When did Max get banned … my world is shaken!!

    Try from about here onwards:

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/5419/comment-page-7#comment-778060

    Actually I don’t know if he’s actually banned or just on pre-mod – aka the naughty step – and sulking because of it.

  17. Howard,

    :-)

    Hope no-one else is reading this as they’d be somewhat confused….!

    Self used to live nearby when I was in London. Much more affable than his TV ‘nasty’ persona. He’s in need of a roof over his head now after the incident the other day…..
    Will S(hakespeare), on the other hand has never ignited the Hooded household. There’s an undeniable gift there, but unfortunately I was force-fed some of his lesser works at school and it diminished it for me….Darwin though is a must…..

  18. Dorothy Hodgkin (who actually taught Margaret Thatcher for a year incidentally) would be my choice

  19. BillyBob,

    I’d be happy with adding “or Disagree” to the proposed question if people think it’s more balanced and I suspect that is what will happen.

    It’s worth noting that just because it is a “Soft” question and gets a different result doesn’t mean that a “Hard” question is necessarily fairer.

    I don’t have a problem with a fair question just with the notion that the No Camp are pursuing fairness as opposed to a No Vote.

    The attention and treatment Independence is getting from Parlimentary committees is starting to make Tom Watson look like Rupurt Murdoch’s best mate!

    To be honest. I get a far fairer hearing here than anyone discussing Independence does at Westminster.

    Also contrary to what many SNP supporters think and post. I actually think we get a fair hearing from the BBC too, particularly on the News Web site and analysis sections.

    It’s not debating getting the question right that annoys me its people out to score points pretending they care about getting the question right.

    Peter.

  20. Hooded

    Oh blimey. I wished no ill and I hope no further ill befalls the gentleman.

    I don’t follow the gossip columns and it is blissful ignorance in one way.

    Do you realise everyone, that this chit chat has to last UKPR’ers until 2200 tomorrow night?

    Still, I shall be in Monte Carlo with Jensen and Fernando tomorrow morning,

    Cue for environmental discussion. Wrong, the average horse race burns far more carbon than a GP.

  21. Well,a local bit of news.The Olympic torch was carried
    through Abergavenny today,a source of great excitement
    for the junior schools of this area..Lots of bunting and
    good fun.

  22. @ Peter Cairns

    It’s not debating getting the question right that annoys me its people out to score points pretending they care about getting the question right.
    ———————————————–
    It’s not debating getting the question right that annoys me its people trying to affect the actual outcome by pushing a loaded question! And, if they are doing it in the knowledge that it is a ‘nudge’ question (& you were very quick to tell me that you did know this) & that it likely won’t be the actual question at the end of the day (i.e. it will likely be: Do you agree or disagree..?) then it is doubly reprehensible, when judged by the standard which you are applying to the opposition.
    8-)

  23. @Howard

    Monte Carlo eh?

    And here I am trying to book a last minute holiday in the UK. First choice was one of the Scottish Islands (Skye, Orkney or Shetland) but left ot too late. Next option wad the Highlands, but left that too late to get the best deals. Now there’s an outside chance of Pembrokeshire in Wales, failing which, we’re looking at Dorset and the environs.

    Typical. You work so hard that come holiday time you’ve left it too late!

  24. HOWARD

    @” think the only reason I do not reveal my full details is because one gets enough stupid phone calls and emails, even having registered with TPS”

    @”I shall be in Monte Carlo with Jensen and Fernando tomorrow morning,”

    :-) :-) :-)

  25. Colin

    Que?

  26. Howard,

    Enjoy Monaco, never been, but have heard it is wonderful.

    (no gossip columns here either, p5 of the Standard. Ok, possibly the same thing)

  27. More from Gary Gibbon on that old chestnut the boundary review:

    “When I wrote about Lib Dems telling me they would hold that measure hostage until they got Lords reform there was quite a bit of what I think is called “push-back” from senior Tories.

    My latest intelligence is that the Lib Dems are still “digging in” on this. They regard a full, proper push on Lords reform as a sacred part of the Coalition Agreement. Break it (as the Lib Dem ministers so painfully didn’t on tuition fees, for instance) and you enter new uncharted terrain.”

    h
    ttp://blogs.channel4.com/gary-gibbon-on-politics/tories-and-2015/19399

  28. @Joe James B (from ages ago)

    You may find Leveson boring, but I don’t.

    A couple of years back I shared what appeared to be a general opinion that, for all its faults, public administration in this country was very largely free of corruption, in contrast to that in too many other states. Leveson has exploded that myth in great forensic detail. Its course has far to run and, when the inquiry finally winds itself up, the way will be clear for the prosecutions to dominate much of the news agenda in 2013 and possibly even 2014.

    People may not be hanging on every word of Leveson, but they get the message from the headlines clearly enough, they don’t like what they see and they’re being reminded of it day after day.

    It all seems uncannily like the situation that developed around the Major administration post 1992. The effect of a long series of unrelated scandals did much to undermine Major’s position, because they entrenched a perception was that the government itself was synonymous with sleaze. By comparison to present events, scandals such as “cash for questions” seem almost trifling but their repetitiveness had an effect. Taken as a whole, they undoubtably contributed to the mood for change in 1997.

  29. @Billy Bob

    When I were a LD, constutional reform was really important to me. It still is. They can’t back down on this

  30. Good Evening after a chess triumph, welcome, after 2 deteats.

    The BBC is reporting weird stuff on Hunt

  31. @AW – am I in auto mod?

  32. @AW – ignore my last post. I’ve realised that you’ve stripped out a bunch of posts on the topic in hand.

  33. @Peter Cairns, @AmberStar

    On the referendum, the wording will only be an issue if it differs from the eventual decision of what the independent UK Electoral Commission deems appropriate. I believe that to date its advice has been heeded. The Scottish Government might ignore it and choose to go ahead regardless, but if it did the outcome wouldn’t count for much.

  34. @AW

    Thanks for your earlier response clarifying the lack of clarity of R&T and the BBC’s methodology for arriving at national vote shares.

  35. Roger Mexico,

    “Good heavens, you don’t think DC types and posts his own comments do you? He has Staff”

    DC says to tell you that you’re quite wrong, he almost always posts himself, but when he’s really focusing on the issues at hand, like Greece, or maybe the crucial slice in Fruit Ninja, then, and only then, does he get the hopeless lackey to step in………..

    ……..oops :-)

  36. @Howard

    Enjoy the Monaco Grand Prix. I was with my 88 year old father this afternoon and he got out an old photograph album containing photographs of us all as a family at the 1962 Grand Prix. We were on holiday in the French Riviera that summer and attended the race, won by Bruce McLaren in his Cooper Climax. Stirling Moss didn’t race because of a career ending crash suffered at Goodwood not long before, but racing legends like Graham Hill, John Surtees, Jack Brabham, Lorenzo Bandini, Jim Clark, Phil Hill and Innes Ireland were all there. The photos brought back some great memories of a bygone age. Myself, aged 6 at the time and my 9 year old brother sitting on the pit lane wall and, where there are now an array of ultra-modern and driver friendly crash barriers, a few paltry hay bales separating the track from the open harbour!

    My other vague and slightly surreal memory of that holiday was of of being taken to join a melee of tricolour waving French people on the roadside outside our camp site. We got a fleeting glimpse of a fast moving cavalcade of cars, the middle one of which was an open-topped limousine containing a waving General De Gaulle. Apparently he was on his way down to sort out the latest crisis in Algeria and four weeks later he granted the Algerians their full independence. A few months later he survived an assassination attempt in Paris when his car was strafed by machine gunfire.

    Happy days.

  37. @RAF

    Here is Gibbon’s earlier fairly comprehensive report (April 19th) about opposition to Lords reform from Tories (“Cameron’s job is on the line if he tries to push it through”), and opposition to Nick Clegg’s specific proposals from LD Lords Steel and Lee.

    h
    ttp://blogs.channel4.com/gary-gibbon-on-politics/lords-reform-cameron-under-the-cosh/18968

    I’m guessing is Cameron can’t persuade Tories to support Lords reform. He will anger many if he puts boundary changes off to the next parliament – but some of his backbenchers would be rather pleased.
    LDs face an existential threat from the boundary review, LD peers would be happy if Lords reform was relegated to work-in-progress status, but the wider party would be annoyed.
    Dopping both could either be a way to preserve the coalition – or a pretext for ending it.

  38. Just when I though the plethora of bad news was over and the Hunt scandal is now well and truly back. What, if any, effect will this have on the polls, now it is clear that Cameron deliberately put in someone who supported the bid directly after dismissing someone else on grounds on impartiality? Hunt may have to go to save Cameron now.

  39. @ Crossbat11

    Sounds like fun and some happy memories. I have fond memories of being in France as a boy too.

    Of course, I remember having a 2 or 3 star lunch out in this nice part of outer Paris and walking through this nice park with my family after lunch and noticing CRS police officers everywhere standing around with assault rifles. This was in response to a terrorist threat from Algerian terrorists (this was back in 1994).

  40. Wish I could be in Monaco this weekend, my paramour is dancing there but sadly the ties of work bind me to London.

    It feels to me like Hunt is in deep schtuck and the government is risking a lot by not dispensing with him ASAP. Maybe a sunny weekend will cause it to blow over in the minds of the public?

    By the way, has anyone else noticed the rather varying tones of the political reporting on BBC morning/early afternoon vs evening?

  41. @ Old Nat

    “In Cornwall, the Cornish flag was removed from the torch carrier by the police escort. What an odd decision! It’ll be interesting to see what happens in the other nations of the UK.”

    Don’t you have some sort of free speech protection for that? (I mean, unless someone decided to raise the Cornish flag on public property and take down the British one, that seems fairly odd).

    @ Billy Bob

    “Ok, you might say I am suffering a paranoid delusion, but I’m beginning to think ALL of you are David Cameron.”

    Even me? Hmmm. Maybe I shouldn’t have kept up that Tory background for so long. Well I can assure you that though I like him, I’m not him. Actually, on DKos, I was once accussed of being Alastair Campbell (but I think that was someone just trying to be insulting, I don’t think they actually thought I was him.).

    @ Scotswaehae (or Dave)

    “Ladies and gentlemen, I have been discovered. I am a UKPR reader.

    I am David Cameron.

    (I also post as Max to vent my rightish tendencies using this site as a sort of policy compass).

    I know you may doubt this, but I have proof;

    LOL.

    -Dave”

    Next thing you know, you’ll be a prime suspect in the Etan Patz disappearance.

  42. @ Roger Mexico

    “[Tries very, very hard to resist Spartacus joke]”

    Umm, question. Does the movie Spartacus have the same cultural meaning/understanding among Brits (and Manx) as it does among Americans?

    JM listed it as his favorite movie (along with Twelve Angry Men). The man’s got good taste, what can I say?

  43. Bonjours mes amis.

    It could be a tipping point in the political history of these times in the UK, although the ‘crisis’ may pass.

  44. @ Martyn

    “Accept it. It’s inevitable. There is no escape. You WILL be David Cameron. You will ALL be David Cameron. MWWWWW-HAH-HAH-HAH… :)”

    Can’t I be Nick Clegg instead?

    Actually I could be John Cleese since he is a Liberal and he is now a Southern Californian (well maybe not, some folks from Santa Barbara claim they’re not in Southern California and instead argue that the’re on the Central Coast…..it’s kinda like the whole dispute you guys have over whether Berwick-upon-Tweed should be English or Scottish minus all the bloodshed.) But of course if I was (well, I’d be way funnier), I would have adopted the yellow Lib Dem colors.

    @ Alec

    “Elsewhere in the real world, Catalonia has asked the Spanish government for a bail out as they are running out of financing options.”

    That’s kinda surprising to me because I thought Catalonia was economically better off than the rest of Spain.

  45. Can’t see that anybody’s mentioned it yet, but new poll?

    Class/YouGov. Class is a centre-left thinktank established by Unite and GMB. I thought I’d put that in there before there’s accusations of a biased poll.

    Tables here:
    http://classonline.org.uk/docs/YouGov-Class_Polling_Results_120522_Economic_Policies.pdf

    How important are these policies?

    Reducing the deficit –
    Important – 85%
    Not important – 10%

    Redistributing wealth from the richest in society –
    Important – 70%
    Not important – 24%

    Creating jobs and reducing unemployment –
    Important – 95%
    Not important – 2%

    Encouraging growth –
    Important – 95%
    Not important – 2%

    Would you support or oppose each of the following policies –

    Introducing a 75% top rate of income tax for those earning over £1 million per year –
    Support – 56%
    Oppose – 31%

    Reducing the state pension age to 60 for people who have worked for 41 years or more –
    Support – 63%
    Oppose – 24%

    Passing laws to separate high street retail banks from investment banks –
    Support – 69%
    Oppose – 23%

    Establishing a publicly-owned bank that will lend to small and medium businesses –
    Support – 74%
    Oppose – 12%

    A national programme of building 500,000 extra homes a year, including 150,000 new council houses –
    Support – 64%
    Oppose – 23%

    Providing more financial support for young people from low income families so they can better afford to go to college and university –
    Support – 73%
    Oppose – 17%

    Introducing a tax on financial transactions by investment banks –
    Support – 61%
    Oppose – 19%

  46. So.

    There are Labour’s policies. Let’s get going.

  47. In my view,the Tories vote will stand up as long as the Euro crisis is in the news headlines,and once(if) it quietens,then people may look at the economic problems of the government more closely

    If Hunt was to go,he would have gone long ago I think…The fact that he is still there shows that Cameron is probably unable to sack him…I think people have to come to their own conclusions as to why that might be.

  48. @Socal – “That’s kinda surprising to me because I thought Catalonia was economically better off than the rest of Spain.”

    It is. In fact, it’s the wealthiest of the autonomous regions. Oops.

  49. @TINGED FRINGE

    Sounds like a straw poll amongst readers of the Morning Star

  50. Apparently the PM also ignored legal advice that allowing Hunt to rule on the BSkyB issue risked `prejudging the issue`…Atleast Blair got his attorney general to change his legal advice before going to Iraq…Before any protests,am not trying to compare going to war with a media bid.

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