Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 42%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 7%. This is the first time YouGov have shown the Labour lead dropping back into single figures since the local elections, and follows a ten point lead yesterday.

I’ll add my normal caveat – it could be the start of YouGov’s bigger Labour leads of up to 14 points that we’ve seen since the local elections falling back a bit… or it could just be normal random sample error.


209 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 34, LAB 42, LDEM 8, UKIP 7”

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  1. I’d say sample variation around a 10 point lead- so no sign yet of that post-omnishambles settled lead increasing (yet)…

  2. Quite a docile time atm. Nothing to spark the public interest – pasty tax probably hit the government more than Hunt stuff going on at the moment will.

    Wouldn’t be surprised if we got that ‘easing’ effect when things calm down a bit, and the oppositions leads narrows a bit.

  3. Hmmm … not sure why the narrowing of the gap. But still in MOE territory for a 10 point Lab lead. I don’t know how much effect today’s economic news and Leveson will have over the next few polls, if the dire news for Con they both carry has been factored into VI for weeks now. Anyway, still a good place for reds to be. I’m happy. And off to Athens tomorrow. Should be fun.

  4. Labour on 42 is fine. At the moment, Labour & Con chasing different types of voters (for the most part) so there’s nowt Labour can do about the Cons putting on a little weight.
    8-)

  5. Mike Smithson tweeting about a YouGov Scotland poll showing fewer than half of SNP voters in favour of independence.

  6. TARK
    “Hmmm … not sure why the narrowing of the gap”
    ___________

    Don’t worry Tark it has absolutely nothing to do with the Tesco Finest range sitting on Labour’s front bench.. ;)

  7. Tomorrow’s front pages look painful for the government…

  8. Some right wingers returning to the mother ship…I don`t think they will be affected by the Hunt story…It is the voters who are on the centre who tend to care more about sleaze,I think

    Looking at the tables,Labour doing pretty well in the South and neck and neck with the Tories amongst the over 65`s…Greens high at 4…Could this be due to the rise of the far left in the double-dip recession…Probably just an outlier.

  9. I think the Tories will take heart from this poll. Given what they have been through and are going through, 34% is a strong mid-term position.

    Labour is struggling to inspire. I think the electorate is perhaps depressed and disillusioned with party politics. I fear such a state of hopelessness suits the main incumbent party.

    That said, 42% would be a tremendous score in a GE and would lead to a huge Labour majority so no need to press the panic button just yet. Also, the Lib Dems are going nowhere fast (as they say round here.) :)

  10. Cameron does some strutting about Europe, UKIP down 2. Con up 2.

  11. And Hunt making the front pages of the major newspapers except The Times…Why am I not surprised?

  12. This is not polling related, but interesting.

    The National lottery people for the Euromillions draw on 27th July, will be creating 100 millionaires. The millionaires raffle normally held to select one luck winner, will instead draw 100 numbers to receive a million each.

    This is to commemorate the opening of the Olympics.

  13. Telegraph also reporting that increased government spending accounted for +0.4 of GDP last quarter..So without that,the figures would be quite bad.

  14. Just in case anyone missed it, here is AW’s reply from the previous thread:

    “… he does indeed read the site (or at least, did when he was Leader of the Opposition), I have it from the horse’s mouth.”

  15. Hmmm

    Anyone else think we are no longer in the world of three party politics more like two + two party? In the current circumstances I must say that I am really surprised the Greens aren’t advancing to make two + three.

    Also given the LibDems complete abandonment of the centre-left for out and out classical ecosnomic liberalism Labour look a bit lonely on top of the pile. Now if only we had a traditional Labour leadership (say a Wilson or even an Atlee) the Conservatives would be really worried.

    But even EM seems good enough for this lot!! From the Conservatives point of view if this is a return to the mid 30s we have to ask where the vi is coming from, Labour’s vi is not dented (it has been in the low 40s for weeks) the LDs and UKIP are both slightly down so we can assume, in the absence of other evidence we have to assume that UKIP vi has gone to the Conservatives. The change in LD vi – I never take a 1 percentage point change in any figure seriously as it could be exaggerated by rounding anyway and may be as little as a 0.1 percentage point shift that has been rounded.

    In any case as always we need more data to say whether Labour is flatlining in the low 40s and the Conservatives returning to the mid-30s.

  16. Strong performance by DM on snoozenight just now: not sure at what point but I’m petty sure he’ll be back on front bench shadowing something before the next GE.

  17. @Billy Bob

    Just in case anyone missed it, here is AW’s reply from the previous thread:

    “… he ( David Cameron) does indeed read the site (or at least, did when he was Leader of the Opposition), I have it from the horse’s mouth.”

    Oh good. Dear Mr Cameron

    Would you please bring to an end this coalition for the good of the country and call an early election. The country can then decide on policies that will be needed to take the country forward. ;)

  18. Billy Bob,

    ‘Just in case anyone missed it, here is AW’s reply from the previous thread:

    “… he does indeed read the site (or at least, did when he was Leader of the Opposition), I have it from the horse’s mouth.”

    Raisa, I presume ?

  19. If the Tories continue to recover at this rate by conference season they will be on 123%… Or it could just be normal fluctuations.

    Peter.

  20. @HOODED MAN
    `Raisa, I presume ?`

    @PETERCAIRNS
    `If the Tories continue to recover at this rate by conference season they will be on 123%`

    :)

  21. Europe never does DC any harm. Shame about the deeper double-dip. Having just climbed a small ladder, Tory VI may soon crash down a rather large snake.

  22. AW

    You SAY you have it from the horse’s mouth, but are you sure it was from DC and not one of his SpAds?

  23. The lead has narrowed – due largely to a Con recovery rather than Lab weakening – during a week when Leveson was, exceptionally for recent weeks, focusing its attention elsewhere from News International and the Government.

    As the focus returns to Hunt’s SPAD, Michel and Hunt himself, and even ultimately to the PM given today’s revelations, I’d expect there to be a return to double-digit leads as the stench of sleaze wafts back onto centre stage. If not, then maybe Leveson isn’t having such an impact after all.

  24. As mentioned by a contributor earlier, tomorrows headlines indeed not good for the Tories. Following Cameron’s outburst at PMQ’s showing what some voters might deduce as the Nasty Party is alive and well, (was it not Cameron who said he would not be stooping to such personal attacks at PMQ’s?) tomorrow’s papers will perhaps again emphasise a well used Tory saying:

    They’re All In It Together!

    :)

  25. @ Billy Bob, last night’s yougov showed UKIP at 6 % in Scotland, so perhaps thecould pick up SNP voters who want more local politics and devolution max, but not independence. UKIP could do well with the Scottish, but also proud to be British segment in Scotland that are disaffected with the main parties.

  26. This time last week Labour were ahead by 14, now the lead is down to 8… almost half of the 14 point lead gone in a very short space of time… at this rate, level pegging again by this time next week?? ;)

  27. Jim

    “proud to be British segment in Scotland that are disaffected with the main parties.”

    In Scotland they are called Tories or Lib Dems.

    In Cornwall, the Cornish flag was removed from the torch carrier by the police escort. What an odd decision! It’ll be interesting to see what happens in the other nations of the UK.

  28. Jim,

    “Last night’s yougov showed UKIP at 6 % in Scotland,”

    And tonight’s has them at zero;

    so either they have all thrown themselves off a cliff overnight,

    or

    You can tell nothing from such a small percentage of one nights unweighted regional subsample!

    Peter.

  29. Another bit of AW’s post:

    “He also comments under the name Roly. No, that bit isn’t true.”

    Ok, you might say I am suffering a paranoid delusion, but I’m beginning to think ALL of you are David Cameron.

  30. I don’t like the way ministers are hounded out of jobs by the press, but surely Hunt is now a goner? He was in charge of deciding if a takeover was acceptable when he’s already made up his mind, and said so in writing! Frankly a slightly dodgy decision by Cameron to put him in the position, he’s been in politics long enough to know that any e-mail can leak if you’re unlucky.

  31. Here’s my guess. Prior to this week a month of rain – unpopular government. A week of good weather, and everybody is more inclined to not moan (blame the government).

    Hence narrowing of the VI.

  32. @ PETERCAIRNS

    Indeed. For what it’s worth my 30-poll averaging shows UKIP in Scotland at exactly 3.0, so the MOE is spot on.

  33. @PeterCairns, yes I understand that, but it has also gone from 1, 2, 3, 4, 0 several times in the past few weeks, suggesting that there is some level of support in Scotland. My point, however, was that given that it is possible for them to get some support in Scotland (as evidenced by the fact they got 6 % in one poll, even if it was a small regional sample on one night), there is room for them to get support from the groups I outlined above.

  34. @ Old Nat, let me say it a different way, there could be potential for UKIP to steal share away from Tories and LibDems in Scotland.

    Strange decision indeed for them to remove the Cornish flag. UKIP can really play on these types of divisions that the 3 main parties try to re-enforce.

  35. @petercairns

    very funny comments… I really did laugh out loud

    :)

  36. The Grundian reporting on YG Scotland Independence Poll:

    The YouGov poll of 1,004 people found that only 33% of Scots would opt for independence, while 57% would reject it, findings which are close to several recent surveys but show lower support for independence than others.

    In another damaging finding for the pro-independence movement, the poll also suggested that only 58% of people who voted for the SNP in last May’s landslide victory for Salmond would back independence in a snap referendum, while 28% of SNP voters opposed it.

    “Even after winning two Scottish general election victories, raising a war-chest of millions and deploying the full resources of the Scottish government, Alex Salmond has failed to convince Scots that they should leave the United Kingdom,” Darling said.
    8-)

  37. Darling obviously hasn’t been keeping up. The campaign is just beginning, not ending.

  38. @ Statgeek

    The campaign is just beginning, not ending.
    ————————-
    People are bored with it already & support for independence is draining away – & that’s before Alistair Darling’s campaign even gets going.
    8-)

  39. @Paula

    Funny you should mention that, as tonight’s tables show higher than usual Green figures, with a rare 4%, and accounting for 1/5 of 18-24s VIs.

  40. Phil – Levenson is boring.
    It’s a waste of cash.
    The government should have done a practical investigation into the police, but left the rest.

    But if Miliband wants to keep going on about that it is actually helpful to the Tories because it shows the opposition are much more comfortable talking about trivia, than rebuilding their economic policy which took us within a few months of bankruptcy in 2010.

    As for the political situation,
    the swing in working class areas in the local election is a warning the Tories have to take seriously though.

    Anyway, it’s been a long hard campaign. I’m off for a holiday tomorrow.

  41. Joe James B

    I didn’t think Leveson was meant to replace your favourite daytime TV shows as “Entertainment”! Any enquiry is bound to be detail heavy and not of much interest to the general public.

    Ultimately it’s value will lie in the report it makes. It won’t get cancelled due to poor viewing figures!

  42. UKIP down Tories up. Says it all. Binding In/Out referendum in the Tory manifesto for the next GE now inevitable unless things come to a head before then.

  43. Good Morning All.
    LIZH not on the chablis now.
    I agree with posters who say that Labour is not inspiring people.
    Bad economic news is not necessarily good for the Labour Opposiiton.
    I do agree with a poster here who said we seem to be in a traditional two party fight, with two other parties more on the margins.

  44. Ladies and gentlemen, I have been discovered. I am a UKPR reader.

    I am David Cameron.

    (I also post as Max to vent my rightish tendencies using this site as a sort of policy compass).

    I know you may doubt this, but I have proof;

    LOL.

    -Dave

  45. I see Spain are keen to avoid winning Eurovision, thereby preventing the cost liability of hosting next year. Not sure what this entails – singing off key, or forgetting the words perhaps ?

    The UK and Ireland seem to have planned ahead on that score with The Hump and Jedward respectively ‘sacrificed’ as representatives. Subtle austerity?

  46. Interested in the A4E story, as I suspect this will become indicative of wider themes as we progress towards government as commissioning agent and greater involvement from the private sector in service provision.

    While the Tories want to push this much further than before, it isn’t a partisan point by any means. A4E itself was first appointed by the Blair government, but the tide of accusations of fraud and financial malpractice are stark reminders that the mantra of ‘private good, public bad’ really does need a very significant level of qualification.

    There is malpractice within the public sector of course, but the business of handing out multi billion point contracts for services where outputs are hard to measure and track, really does leave the taxpayer wide open to abuse and fraud, as seems to be the case within A4E. It also takes responsibility several steps further away from ministers and their officials, making democratic accountability much more complex.

    Given also that profit is, in effect, a waste to the taxpayer, especially if it isn’t balanced against a higher gain elsewhere in the contract, we can see the beginnings of a significant issue developing about the effectiveness of service contracts.

  47. alec

    I agree with you. But where is the political party/voice to take up the anti-privatisation voice?

    The unions, yes. But Labour last time out believed privatisation was a cure-all. I have still to see any evidence that privatisation leads to either better service or reduced ciosts to the taxpayer. All it does is give lower wages and bigger profits for the bosses.

  48. @John Fletcher – “Binding In/Out referendum in the Tory manifesto for the next GE… ”

    Might some Conservative constituencies look favourably on the idea of adopting “joint Conservative/UKIP candidates” at the next election? It would certainly give them a fall back position in the event that the leadership is still harbouring ideas of a Con-LD election pact, and follow on Con-LD coalition.

  49. @Paula Thomas
    “Anyone else think we are no longer in the world of three party politics more like two + two party? In the current circumstances I must say that I am really surprised the Greens aren’t advancing to make two + three. ”

    Three main reasons the Greens aren’t joining UKIP and the Lib Dems in terms of vote share. Firstly, there’s a fundamental difference between Greens and UKIP in terms of strategy. UKIP are very much focused in increasing their national vote share. Green strategy, on the other hand, has been built around targeting and getting local councillors elected for longer than I’ve been a member. Secondly, both the Greens and UKIP are seen by the public as single issue parties, and Europe is a lot higher up peoples’ agendas than the environment. Thirdly, our natural support base overlaps strongly with Labour, whilst UKIP’s overlaps equally strongly with the Conservatives. In the current political climate, that’s going to make it a lot harder for us to pick up leaners outside of areas we’re targeting, and a lot easier for UKIP to do so. People aren’t that enthusiastic about Labour, but they’re seen as the only viable alternative to a hated coalition.

  50. @NickP – My post wasn’t actually ‘anti privatisation’ – I was just pointing out some of the issues it raises that need to be addressed.

    Indeed, I run a small private company that has a healthy order book from public sector bodies, so I can’t be critical in ideological terms.

    What I can say is that, in my experience, there is a real problem with the dealings between public and private sectors. I see consistent levels of waste and excess cost caused by commissioning bodies failing to understand contracts and assuming that private sector companies know best, instead of driving down costs and drafting contract specifications for what they actually need.

    I’ve been told that I lost a couple of contracts”because they thought you were too cheap”, where I know that the final level of work was well below the standards I would have submitted. The public sector body assumed that a high price meant quality.

    These are issues that need to be addressed, every bit as much as poor public sector practices and delivery. Unfortunately the debate is stuck in that ideological battleground that prevents realistic assessment of the pros and cons of different approaches, so we seem to keep repeating the mistakes.

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