Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 9%. The ten point Labour lead, while big compared to most of the Parliament so far, is actually the lowest from YouGov for almost a fortnight. It is well within the margin of error of a Labour lead of twelve points though, so far too early to take it as a sign Labour’s post-local election boost is subsiding at all.


127 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 32, LAB 42, LD 9, UKIP 9”

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  1. ‘Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 9%. The ten point Tory lead, while big compared to most of the Parliament so far, is actually the lowest from YouGov for almost a fortnight. ‘

    The ten point Tory lead? I must have missed this, did another Falklands war happen?

  2. Also, how do I get the red Labour background on my posts?

  3. Lab losing a point to the LDs – on the basis of headline figures only. No real change. Lab still above 40. The Tories still in the low 30s.

  4. “The ten point Tory lead”

    Epic fail…

  5. Pablo – you’d be amazed at how bloody often I bugger things like that up and spot them before publishing. Wrote this at the last minute tonight, hence typo hell.

  6. MJones – I’ve set you up extended profile, you should be able to choose a background now.

  7. Tory lead
    It’s Dinner O’ Booze and his faithful clerk Wishful Thinkfella at work here.

    Another climb of 1% resulting in a doubling of LD seats (to 12). Two taxi loads, wow..

  8. Cameron’s image is really taking a knock. Football chants aimed at DC are trending now at
    #CameronFootballChants.

  9. Still say around 10 % is poor for labour ! We need a new party of the Left surely that’s clear – The labour Party belongs in the Past -it stands for nothing as far i can see

  10. @LizH (from the last thread)

    Organisation in marginals is going to be key. Losing many councillors is not a good place to start.

    I think concentrating on non-white voters is mistaken. Most non-white voters live in inner-cities areas the Tories are not likely to win anyway. Boris improved the Tory share of the non-white vote in London, but that was because he sold himself as Boris, not the Tory PM.

  11. Start one then Poppy!

  12. Don’t think that’s true Poppy – didn’t the YouGov polls show that Tories were thought of as more ‘old and tired’?

    (Ignore what my profile is showing for political party support, just wanted to see what the other ones looked like)

  13. Hooray, now got my ‘Labour’ background

  14. @POPPY
    ` We need a new party of the Left surely that’s clear `

    How about the Greens?They might poll more than 45…May take some time(a few decades) though.

  15. @Poppy

    The primary intention of most current.mainstream parties is working out how to win while remaining only vaguely connected to their roots. That means following the money with the inevitable quid pro quo.

  16. @RAF

    Also with more cuts still to come, they will have a job convincing people that Britain’s economy and society are getting better not worse. They need to revise their 5 points as the current ones are not very likely to be successful.

  17. LIZH

    Yes but don’t forget ‘the event’.. My money is still on jingoism, it really is the best card. It can be actually created by blowing up some small concern into a major drama. Such manufactured matters do not even need to be dog whistles.

    I see no change in our population’s insularity.

    About 9 months before May 2015 would seem about the right moment.

  18. Poppy – hmmm. There’s always Respect. It stands for something. Loopiness, sectarial communal politics, a personality cult and, umm, I’m sure there was something else there…

    10% is not bad, but it means little with three years to go. But, two more years of 10% or there-abouts would be far more significant.

    Problem for any ‘new party of the left’ is that Labour is the only vaguely left wing party that can challenge the Tories. Every time the Liberals/Lib Dems get close enough to have a say in government (since WWI), they end up working with the Tories. The other left wing parties are frankly going nowhere, and can’t even put together an alliance that lasts more than one parliament.

  19. Events
    Actually I think Alex Salmond could do the business (they are ‘foreigners’ do not forget).

    ‘Look, no hands’ Cameron could chuckle to Sam in the boudoir in 2015.

  20. Hey guys let me make it clear i dislike the tories more than labour if thats possible ..A party like respect will never be a mass party and the greens ,.well yes possible i suppose .Me start a party !!! Didn’t go to Oxbridge :)

  21. Howard,

    “Events
    Actually I think Alex Salmond could do the business (they are ‘foreigners’ do not forget).

    ‘Look, no hands’ Cameron could chuckle to Sam in the boudoir in 2015.”

    Whilst I’m less convinced by your prognosis I do love your style……

  22. @Howard
    “I see no change in our population’s insularity.”

    Don’t worry Francois Hollande will change that. He has already changed our government’s economic policies.

  23. @POPPY
    `Hey guys let me make it clear i dislike the tories more than labour if thats possible`

    Oh yes,hate is a more powerful emotion than love.

  24. What is wrong with Oxbridge?

  25. @Danivon & Poppy

    It’s arguable whether Labour are still a party of the left. Discussing that in detail would be the kind of partisan bickering we’re not supposed to do here, but it is worth pointing out.

    And electorally speaking, the Greens are in the same place Labour were at the turn of the 20th Century. We’ve now got a toe in the FPTP door, and are making steady progress. We’re getting councillors elected in plenty of areas we’ve never had them before, and in an increasing number of places we’re overtaking Labour, the Lib Dems, and/or the Tories as first, second or third party in an area.

    Yes, it’ll take some time before we’ve got a realistic shot at a parliamentary majority, but if you’re after a left-wing alternative to Labour in England then we’re the nearest you’ve got.

    If you’re in Scotland or Wales, then the SNP and Plaid fill that role, although both have elements who are firmly on the right wing of politics.

  26. I was thinking earlier today that DC needed a Falklands-style moment to help him out of the current situation. He might just get the real thing.

    I seem to remember after the first one, the Cons seemed to be solidly 12-14% for a long time before the 1983 election. No need to be 20% ahead to win a landslide then.

  27. @GREENCHRISTIAN
    @RAF

    I am with RAF on this one…There`s ideology but compromises have to be made…Greens apparently running into unpopularity at the Brighton council trying to raise more tax.It would be interesting to see whether Caroline Lucas can retain her seat in 2015

  28. @greenchristian – as a Green myself, I hate to disappoint, but the Green are currently nowhere near where Labour were in 1900. We are not backed by millions of working people, and have made a breakthrough in one parliamentary seat – the same as Respect.

    ‘Plenty of councilors’ is an interesting take, given that we got 26 (+5) in the May locals, out of a total of around 2,400 being contested.

    Being completely realistic, we aren’t going to form a government, nor are we at all likely to get more than the odd Westminster seat, even if we get PR. The Greens are a pressure group more than a political party, and our key role is to increase awareness of the green agenda, and by capturing a small percentage of votes, encourage bigger parties to move towards our objectives to try and win over our sympathizers.

    In big political systems, the role of small parties isn’t to win – we’re here to break new policies, and persuade big parties that they need to adopt them.

  29. Cammo is beginning to look like a statesman in Europe, very articulate and authoritative, striding purposefully around, taking the initiative, and of course, lecturing those pesky foreigners on economic strategy. A drift back to the Tories by a few UKIP tempted Blues is on the cards now, I predicted a steady improvement for us in the polls, and like a stopped clock, and most people on here, I am right twice a day.

  30. Ken
    UKIP has some momentum now (more than the Greens). The only way Cameron will get most of them back into the fold is to call an in-out referendum and then campaign for the ‘out’ view.

  31. BBC reporting that Tory MPs will be given a free vote on gay marriage – anybody know the numbers for Labour MPs who’re also against it?
    Trying to work out whether there’s the numbers for it to pass even with Tory opposition.

    Interesting also that Tory ministers get a free vote (2 have already said they’ll vote against) on controversial [1] matters, but LibDem ministers are expected to show collective responsibility.
    Shift in the balance of power or will it be a deal for other controversial votes (i.e employment reform)?

    [1] Controversial within their own party.

  32. @tingedfringe

    I can’t say for sure without checking the website of c4em but I think it is less than 10. If equal marriage is put up in this parliament it will get through the HoC, probably by quite a big margin. Less sure about the HoL though….

  33. @Ken – while he does sound impressive on the TV (up to a point) I can’t quite see Cameron appearing as statesmanlike in Europe myself. Impotent, yes, but statesmanlike? I wonder.

    We are really seeing the logically inconsistency of the Tory position (not Lib Dems – they are being entirely logical). They completely reject any notion of a single currency, and threaten to veto any measures that bring together EU economies, yet publicly call for a strengthening of the EZ integration and the saving of a single currency for 17 nations, but not us.

    Indeed, our entire recovery strategy (keep interest rates low, devalue currency, export) is predicated precisely on the fact that we can compete against the Euro in terms of currency valuations, and Osborne has explicitly stated this.

    If it would be a disaster for Greece to leave the EZ, then by implication it should be a disaster for the UK not to be in it.

    It’s genuinely difficult to have a rational discussion of the Euro at inter governmental level, as if we had our government openly stating the obvious (and what they clearly believe) that the Euro needs to break up into properly functioning units with full fiscal unity) then markets would dive.

    So they have to maintain a fiction about a course of action that is clearly irrelevant and wrong, and in which they have no philosophical agreement. Meanwhile, within this vacuum, markets are making their own decisions. Only when European leaders address the inconsistencies in their views and address them in a logical and practical way will we see any resolution, but to do this means admitting they have been wrong for the last 20 years, so it won’t happen.

    Over to the markets….

  34. @ Tingedfringe

    I would guess that on a free vote, the majority of Labour, Lib Dem, Tories and other parties would be in favour of gay marriage.

    But there will be caveats to the legislation, in that it will be left up to individual church ministers, clergy to decide on who they wish to marry.

    The arguments will mainly be on amendments to the legislation, by people who though religious conviction, wish to protect the church.

    Personally I don’t really care that much. I don’t like the way religion is used to divide people.

  35. @greenchristian – “It’s arguable whether Labour are still a party of the left.”

    David Coates has an interesting chapter “The weakness of the Labour Left” which debunks a lot of myths, charting the history of left groupings within the Labour party from its earliest times… the defection of every “left” leader, their eventual accommodation to right-wing policies and colleagues is “the most visible index of the sterility of the particular mold into which Labour Left politics has fallen.”

    The “left” can only survive by remaining attached, accepting defeat… that way they can at least continue to contribute to the debate. There would be next to no support for them among the electorate if they split away to form an independent party.

    That is not to say that world historical shifts are not always occuring, which gives more or less scope for progressive policies, and affects the broader left/right orientation of political parties.

  36. Once again, a slight fall in the labour lead has prompted a rapid update of the ‘voting intention’ and ‘labour majority’ figures.

    Large labour leads are often ignored for weeks.

    I am beginning to suspect some bias creeping in here. It is as if someone wants to present the data more favourable for one party than the other.

  37. Mote and beam, sir. Mote and beam.

  38. @Martin – more a case of paranoia creeping in I suspect.

    Updating the projections is more random than planned I suspect, and I’ve never picked out undue bias from that source.

  39. Tingedfringe – Labour MPs would vote overwhelmingly for it (there is a small group of largely Catholic Labour MPs who tend to vote against on abortion and gay rights issues, but it is only a small number), Lib Dem MPs would vote for it overwhelmingly, there would probably be a large group of Conservative MPs who voted against, but less than half.

    If it comes to a vote, I’d expect it pass relatively easily.

  40. Alec – it isn’t wholly random. I try to do it when regular polls from companies other than YouGov appear, during the evening (MORI normally publish during the daytime and the firewall at work stops me accessing the database). I don’t often bother when it’s just the daily YouGov polls to add unless it is looking extremely out of date.

  41. Those who thought the first quarter growth figures were wrong (becuase we couldn’t possibly be in recession):

    “The ONS is saying the economy shrunk by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2012, not 0.2% as previously thought.

    That means that the double dip recession is even deeper (but only marginally) than we thought.”

    Source the gruaniad

  42. @NICK P

    The same as Spain in Q1, 2012.

  43. Recent poll movements have caused me to reflect on what might constitute significant and lasting shifts in opinion as opposed to transitory spikes caused by passing events. Obviously, the former movements are much more meaningful than the latter and usually end up having electoral consequences. If we go back to the Blair/Brown days, the fuel protests caused what was obviously a transitory spike with the Tories moving ahead in the polls for the first time in two or three years. It didn’t last and had no long term effect on opinion or voting intention. I’d put Brown’s replacement of Blair in the same category, as I would Cameron’s EU veto bounce in early December. Passing fancies signifying very little.

    Accordingly, I’d say that there have probably only been three or four significant opinion shifts in the last five years. Obviously the election-that-never-was and the subsequent banking collapse did for Brown and, while he recovered slightly, opinion had moved decisively and irreversibly against him and his government. The second, more arguably, was the Clegg TV debate factor that holed the Tories well below the 40% waterline and probably denied them an OM. Since May 2010, the key movement has obviously been from the Lib Dems to Labour that, very soon after the formation of the coalition, gifted Miliband an 8-10% vote share. It looks to be both long lasting and, obviously, highly significant. Circumstances where any of this lost support returns to the Lib Dems are very hard to imagine.

    The intriguing question is determining whether what has gone on in the last six weeks or so since the Budget, and the unfolding omni-shambles thereafter, is a transitory and short-lived phenomena or whether a longer term and lasting shift has occurred. Have a section of the electorate, hitherto not sure and generous in their benefit of the doubt up to now, made up their minds about the competence and overall political nature of the government? Is this opinion shift decisive and relatively impervious to developments and events, both good and bad, that may take place before the nation goes to the polls in 2015? In other words, is it a September 1992 moment when the political narrative and compass was firmly set and everything that happened to Major’s government thereafter was played into that negative and highly damning narrative by both the voters and media? He couldn’t escape his past and was eviscerated by the electorate many years later.

    I’m not sure of the answers to be honest and there is plenty of evidence that lends credence to both sides of the argument. Labour has clearly benefited and seems to be over the magical 40% in all polls now, but it’s not clear that they’ve got many 2010 Tory voters coming over to them yet. That said, the Tories have shed a significant amount of support, for the first time since May 2010, and, apart from an isolated ICM poll having them on 36%, seem to be bobbing around the 30-32% mark, and have been doing so consistently now for four or five weeks. That suggests something significant may have happened and the polling sub-data on leadership and economic competence points to them taking some very serious hits. The Lib Dems are dead cat bouncing and, what must be deeply worrying for them, even the more historically kind pollsters are rating them around the 10% mark, with UKIP now hot on their heels.

    I’m very keen to see how things now unfold. If the Tories remain becalmed in these low 30% VI ratings, leaving aside how far Labour may be ahead at any one time, for another month or so, then it may be time to conclude that an opinion shift of some significance has taken place. If they recover to pre Budget ratings in the next few weeks or so, however, then we may have to say that what has happened over the last month has been a transitory, albeit sharp, spike that was merely a superficial reaction to passing events.

  44. See that the UK economy declined by -0.3% in the revised GDP stats just released.

    Newspaper discussion that Cameron may be looking at plan b, to get growth going.

    David Cameron if you are viewing UKPR, please tell George to take 5p off fuel duties. If people are staying at home this summer to support the UK, we need people to be visiting our seaside resorts and heritage sites etc. Reducing the cost of petrol might help people in this regard.

  45. Recession confirmed, and it’s worse than first thought. Not good.

  46. Grauniad: “The revised figures for the first quarter showed that output in the construction industry fell by 4.8% compared with the initial estimate of 3%.”
    —————————
    Is it true that deputy PM has called for a massive housebuilding program? If so then (just for once) I agree with Nick.

  47. @crossbat
    I agree, a Labour lead in the polls at this point in a parliament, during a major financial crisis and recession in Europe and the UK, can only mean one thing.
    The forces of Conservatism are destroyed and the Marxist /Leninist workers Utopia is at hand.

  48. To vote no to gay marriage is bigoted and prejudiced. It is depressing that this vote to extend the same marriage rights to all loving couples is now a bigot’s charter, er, free vote.

    I dont look forward to a cringeable devisive debate that will see ugly posturing from the no camp.

    I hope it passes but it may be depressingly close. Cameron should not have given a free vote, some clear leadership on this equality issue may have done him some good outside of parliament.

  49. @ Roly1

    I am not sure what the coalition strategy is going forward. Do they still have a plan ? I realise that the Euro economies have weakened since the election and this does impact on the UK economy. But the coalition would have been aware that this could well be the case and that while borrowing costs were low, they should have been looking to get major infrastructure projects going ahead urgently. The private sector needs encouragement and the government has a role in providing whatever assistance it can.

    The coalition parties can recover their polling positions, but they need to be a bit more dynamic and show some sense of leadership. It is about time Cameron/Osborne came forward with some form of statement, as to the current UK economic position and what the government plans are over the next few years. They do this to a certain extent, but in piecemeal fashion. Suppose that this is one of the problems in being in coalition, that they don’t feel that they have total power to make such statements, without getting approval from Nick.

  50. @rolly

    Hmmm…

    There are without doubt decisive shifts in opinion (Jim Callaghan use to call them “sea changes”) and it is certainly true that the LibDems have been on 9-11% for more time than is healthy for any mainstream party. It is also true that the majority of this vote appears to have gone to Labour (correlation is not causation but the Labour vi rose as the LD fell).

    I must confess surprise at the above in that the Greens have not been greater beneficiaries of the LD decline. I really didn’t think the LD ‘left’ would come to Labour.

    The boost DC received after his veto was undoubtedly temporary and seems to have had the (from his point of view) undesirable effect of waking up both his right wing and UKIP. The right waking up is bad for DC because it reminds people of the ‘nasty party’ past and UKIP waking up is bad for DC because it gives the right wing eurosceptic vote somewhere to go and for the present it a significant amount of it seems to have gone there.
    b
    Lastly the ‘mid-term’ effect: I have my doubts about this one. If you look at the mid-term deficits to final wins since 1970 only two really look similar to a reversal of today’s position, 1979-1983 when Thatcher was saved by the Falklands and 1987-1992 when the Conservatives ditched a by then deeply unpopular leader and fought another war.

    Ditching DC would not be clever as whoever replaced him would probably be even less popular (unless the Conservatives elected Kenneth Clarke which I can’t see them doing).

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