Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 9%. The ten point Labour lead, while big compared to most of the Parliament so far, is actually the lowest from YouGov for almost a fortnight. It is well within the margin of error of a Labour lead of twelve points though, so far too early to take it as a sign Labour’s post-local election boost is subsiding at all.


127 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 32, LAB 42, LD 9, UKIP 9”

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  1. Thanks to Rob Sheffield

    I meant what he has written – the swing of 1,5 was away from Con of course.

    Makes my point (unintentionally) even more graphic.

    As he points out, to lose support and win with a landslide is perverse. It’s FPTP (Cameron reflect on UKIP).

    I am so glad I was not here and to be honest did not care.

    In 1983 I thought politics was for losers (38 years old and just making money, money, money). About that time I read that the British PM was on £75,000 a year and I was earning well above that,

    Some of us take a while to grow up.

  2. Hunt hunted.

    Well, it’s drip drip, but I can;t see the 2015 election voters worrying about this.

  3. Howard,

    What do you think Vince Cable is thinking now?

  4. @HOWARD
    `Well, it’s drip drip, but I can;t see the 2015 election voters worrying about this.`

    I find your comments are usually astute,but I don`t quite agree with you there.

  5. Mikems

    Vince is thinking’ what a pr*t i was proving I was a man by being taken in by those girls’, He thinks this every day of his life now until he expires.

    Smukesh

    If it developed, I see you may be correct, but most floating voters will have Sky Antennae.

    That is my evidence. :-)

  6. “@ SMukesh

    @HOWARD
    `Well, it’s drip drip, but I can;t see the 2015 election voters worrying about this.`

    I find your comments are usually astute,but I don`t quite agree with you there.”

    Depends on what further information comes out, over the next year or so. It is not just the leveson inquiry, but the court trials that could take place. Who knows, but if any of those people who are subject to prosecution, have any information that would be political dynamite, they could be tempted to use it. It could be aimed at Cameron and other Tories, because they are in government. The Labour governments under Blair and Brown, may also have questions to answer about their relations with media, but they are not in government.

  7. Howard,

    #Vince is thinking’ what a pr*t i was proving I was a man by being taken in by those girls’, He thinks this every day of his life now until he expires.

    I’m sure he is!

    But I wonder if he has had any dark thoughts about Mr Cameron’s subsequent behaviour to him.

  8. Clearly it’s not as easy as the title suggests, but, despite being in the employ of the Giant Vampire Squid, this guy has a strong reputation for talking sense……..

    http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/comment/comment/three-easy-steps-to-put-the-euro-back-in-business-7785263.html

  9. So we know tomorrow’s twin headlines at least on the broadsheets.

    Deeper recession than we thought

    Hunt wrote a memo to Cameron supporting bSkyb bid.

    At the very least, I wouldn’t expect that 10 point poll lead to narrow just yet!

  10. Hooded

    I would assume (would have assumed) in that if UK and USA were so terrified of a Greek exit from the euro, they would have coughed up in the same way as was done with Ireland and not maintained ‘this is an issue for the eurozone’, as indeed would the other states (Nippon and Canada).

    One would have also assumed that China was interested in stability.

    This is a political opinion site and my judgement is that *not* doing so is a continuance of ‘veto bounce’ politics.

    Otherwise it’s ‘cutting of your nose to spite your face’.

  11. I suspect that the Jeremy Hunt revelations won’t make much difference – he’s already taken a hammering for dodgy links to NI and anybody who has bought previous narratives about it will buy the next set of narratives.
    And I don’t think people who aren’t politically aware will be all the bothered.

    Were Jeremy Hunt to resign, we may see a short dipping of Tory support – but until that point [1], I suspect it’s news as normal.

    I also don’t think that the GDP revision will have much impact – I suspect ‘we’re in recession’ is already accounted for in the polling and the only impact it will have is making certain right-wing commentators in the press (‘It’ll be revised upward! We’re not really in recession!’) look a bit silly.

    @All the folks who replied to me earlier –
    Thanks for the replies. It’s as I suspect then, that gay marriage would pass despite any real Tory opposition.
    I suspect the free vote is just to placate the Tory right while it not actually making any difference to the outcome.

    [1] I suspect he won’t be forced to resign at any point – he’ll be shuffled out in a reshuffle and potentially have to apologise to the HoC for being forgetful.

  12. @mark watson

    “I hope it passes but it may be depressingly close. Cameron should not have given a free vote, some clear leadership on this equality issue may have done him some good outside of parliament.”

    Barring the obvious, I’m not sure where this new support would come from. It would go down like a lead balloon overall. I think Dave’s in enough trouble without whipping his MPs on gay marriage. And for that reason I hope he takes your advice.

  13. I have to say most here are pretty relaxed about the latest allegations while the press including the Telegraph are talking about the scandal lapping at the door of people higher up to Hunt.

  14. Observing the VI polls for various European countries (c’est mon passe-temps favori!) I remarked a strange coincidence (but is it really one?) In all 3 major European countries (Germany, France, UK – I let Italy aside as a special case), the major center-right party is currently around 33%. This is the number given by UKPR average for the Tories, by the “poll of polls” for the period 16-23 May for German CDU-CSU (33.6 to be precise) and by the latest French GE VI polls for the UMP and its satellite micro-parties (33.5). The remarkable thing is that the 3 countries are at a different point of their political cycle: UK is near mid-term, Germany is 16 months before next GE and we have our GE in just 16 days. Is this a phenomenon of crystallization of a “core” center-right vote corresponding to 1/3 of the electorate? At any rate, I cannot remember such a phenomenon occurring in the last decade or so, or even before. And of course the configuration of the other political forces is not the same. PES parties are at 28 (Germany), 34 (France and 42 (UK), ALDE parties at 5, 4 and 9 respectively, the Greens at 13, 4 and 2, the Radical Left at 6, 7 and 0 and the nationalist right at 0, 16 and 9 respectively. Nevertheless, the predicted outcome in the 3 countries is not very different: OM for Labour in the UK, simple majority for the Socialist-Green alliance in France, which becomes OM with the addition of the Left Front, simple Red-Green majority with the possible external support of the Left party and/or the Pirates in Germany .
    As for Italy (the interminable electoral period in both my “political” countries, France and Greece, have made me think less about my “real” one, but I am always very interested in what happens there and my cousins keep me always posted), it seems to have entered a period of total political upheaval (which is rather usual). PDL, the party of Berlusconi (in the literal sense of the term, it is HIS party, and not just the party that he used to lead) is about to be dissolved, and what will take its place is, for the time being, unclear. Italy has not had a “real” center-right party (in the sense of the Tories, the CDU or the Greek New Democracy) since the demise of the powerful Democrazia Cristiana in the early 90s, and now the whole political scene is about to be remodeled. Formally, the Center-Left Alliance is around 45%, what remains of the PDL at 15, the declining Northern League at 5, the Centrist Third Pole at 12 and the new anti-sustem movement of 5 Stars at 15. Nevertheless, there is a strong possibility that the Center-Left , in the absence of a powerful opponent, might split in a moderate and a more radical wing, which will score around 23 each, so it is a real shifting sand. Note that the alliance that comes first gets 54% of the seats no matter what its score is, and this could lead to a very paradoxical situation, because this law was conceived when there were two strong blocks so that one of them get OM and avoid ungovernability.

  15. Howard,

    They’re certainly terrified, or at least the UK is. I had a presentation from the Chief Economist at Merrills where he said that the consequences of a Greek exit (I can’t stand ‘Grexit’) were too scary to contemplate…

    But it’s all about the Germans. The Ireland situation was very different. This is now fortress or floodgates. Merkel needs to decide, but unfortunately her own neck is on the block next year, and she doesn’t want to communalise the problem as German voters will punish her if she acquiesces. So I guess the plan is to resist until such point that it becomes futile, thereby potentially claiming some kind of honourable high ground. Tsipras is probably the best thing that could have happened for Merkel. The Greeks are in uproar over austerity but the potential consequences outside the Euro are far worse for them, and this may be dawning on them…..

    Who knows though? Apologies for the rambling response, more speculation than fact… :)

  16. @SMUKESH

    I think it will take time to sink in, the press are looking at Cameron now. Why did he swap Hunt for Cable?

    Cameron can’t claim that He didn’t know about Hunts being as pro the deal as Cable was anti.

  17. Stan J

    I think it is exactly the sort of vote that should be a free vote. Had Cameron tried to whip the vote he’d get a major rebellion and look “weak”. Once you start telling people which way their consciences should works, it’s a recipe for fallout and people digging the heels in .

    Capital punishment and abortion really came down to personal moral choices and have been free votes in the past, I think this is another topic that would be impossible to whip. The ideal outcome is a free vote that passes comfortably, positively encouraged and argued by the leaders of all parties.

  18. Hooded

    Not at all rambling and very interesting (better than endless quoted URL’s).

    I think we can agree that each leader will judge the economic situation in terms of voting intention in each’s own country and how far away the election is.

    Even Hollande has to win the assembly, not to be a five year lame duck, as Obama has had to be.

    I don’t suppose any of them would consider the common international good for an instant. :-)

  19. @Crossbat11

    Thanks. I have posted a couple of times before but haven’t set up a profile before.

    @Howard

    See
    http://www.flickr.com/photos/[email protected]/7263304118/in/photostream the graph is a loess smoothed map of the polledata for 1979-1983 the two vertical lines show the beginning and end of the Falklands war. You might want to consider it carefully.

  20. @ChrisLane1945

    “Villa supporting has just been forbidden by Rome.”

    No wonder il Papa has just excommunicated me. The papal notice came through the post, recorded delivery, this morning. Do you think it’s belated revenge for our win against Bayern Munich in 1982? Joseph Aloisius Ratzinger was a former Archbishop of Munich and born a Bavarian, although I thought forgiveness was one of his eternal virtues!

  21. Howard,

    Yes, political destiny is playing too a large part. O’Neil’s analysis, as already expressed in different forms by many posters here, and indeed anyone with half a brain, is right though. The Eurozone cannot survive unless it behaves as a single entity, rather than part-collective, part-national.

    Not trying to depress you, the ‘fiscal cliff’ facing Obama is also pretty scary…..

  22. @Paula Thomas

    Crikey, that is an interesting graph and a stark reminder of the impact of the Falklands War on opinion and Government support. What heady days late 1981 were for the Alliance too (40%+) when we all thought they’d broken the mould.

    A timely reminder too of the dangers of resurrecting electoral cycles from ancient history and claiming they foretell the future in a totally different political landscape. Actually, I couldn’t think of a political period (1979-83) that is so different, in nearly every respect, to the one we live in now. It inhabits a different universe.

    Going back to that graph again, just for a moment. Were Labour, Michael Foot et al, really on 50% in the opinion polls in late 1980? How unpopular was Thatcher, for Gawd’s sake, to bring that about??

  23. There was a time there early in 1982 when the three parties were near as damn it all level in support.

  24. Crossbat. Blimey, how young are you?

    Paula thank you. The point of this discussion, don’t forget, was split voting and FPTP. The Tories *lost* vote share in 1983. It was labour who lost in 1983, not Con who won. Alliance merely buggered it up.

    It’s only the UKIP tendency (at the moment) that could pose a threat in 2015.

    It seems a very paper tiger to me.,

  25. @R Huckle – “David Cameron if you are viewing UKPR… ”

    Ho ho.

    Yes, the Times serialisation last weekend did say that he is constantly viewing “political betting” sites, to pick up the latest thinking on polling methodology.

  26. @ Paula Thomas,

    What your graph also shows that support for Labour was already falling before Falklands and so was support for the Alliance – in fact Falklands doesn’t really make much of a dent in their general trajectory.

    But the clear winner is the Tories. Thatcher got a big boost. The myth of the Falklands is that it secured Thatcher her victory … it did not. It just secured a landslide (which was also helped along by the “Suicide Note” Labour campaign).

  27. Billy Bob – he does indeed read the site (or at least, did when he was Leader of the Opposition), I have it from the horse’s mouth.

    He also comments under the name Roly. No, that bit isn’t true.

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