Tonight’s YouGov/Sun poll has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 43%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 9% – very much the norm for YouGov’s polls in the last week or two.

On a completely unrelated point, given my readership contains an awful lot of councillors, candidates, activists and other politicos, Michael Thrasher (of Rallings and Thrasher fame) has asked me to pass a message on to people who stood in the local elections this year. Over to him:

“Since 2006 The Elections Centre, based at Plymouth University, has been conducting annual surveys of candidates that stood in the May round of local elections. Candidates are selected at random from the published nomination lists and are asked a range of questions about themselves, their motives for standing, their experience of the campaign and also attitudes towards different aspects of local government, particularly the numbers of women, younger people and members of Black, Asian and other minority ethnic groups sitting on local council benches. These survey data are invaluable in providing a profile of who stands (and, of course, who doesn’t stand), the type of local election campaigning that is being conducted and other information that expands our understanding of the local electoral process.

More than six thousand candidates (a one in two sample) were sent a letter in May inviting them to participate in this year’s survey. If you are one of those candidates but has yet not found the time to participate in the survey then there is still time to do so. Simply, locate your reference number on the letter that you were sent and follow the instructions for completing the survey. Many thanks to all those that have or are about to participate!”


113 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 32, LAB 43, LD 8, UKIP 9”

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  1. First!

  2. Bored!

  3. Third

  4. I want to see one with the tories on 3%

  5. Ugh. I despite this ‘first’ epidemic.

    UKIP is now seeming to maintain a consistent lead over the LibDems. Definitely time to have them separate now IMO until they go back down when either Cameron or Milliband inevitably calls for a referendum.

  6. polldrums

  7. David:

    That’s ‘cos you only came fifth and are bitter.

    Anyway, I was being ironic.

  8. Interesting to see reports of Merkal’s speech regarding austerity today, juxtaposed with the gathering tide of calls for Euro bonds and pooling of debts. Merkel sounds as far from accepting this as ever, but the markets are utterly convinced that the the Germans will bend and accept the inevitable. Either the German people or the global markets will have the shock of their lives.

    Clearly the mood everywhere outside Germany has changed, but as I actually heard someone on the radio say recently, ‘the German’s don’t have a word for zeitgeist’….

  9. Clearly UKIP are consistantly above the LD now. I do think 9 % is time to prompt for UKIP. Is the purpose at this point to predict results 3 years out or is it to provide a snapshot of popular support for policies according to public opinion? If it is the latter then it is time to prompt UKIP. This might over exagerate performance, but it won’t over exagerate support for their policies.

  10. I am thinking there are now 3 types of parties:

    Big parties (LAB CON)
    Influential medium parties (LD UKIP)
    Small parties (BNP GREEN)

    and anyone who believes that UKIP are not going to win at least one seat at the next election while they are on 9 % (and rising quickly since last year) is deluded.

  11. Amber/ leftylampton

    FPT where you both made the same argument.

    As I have repeatedly stated a 5-point plan is *not* a “detailed economic policy” !

    Namely what *is* required by EdB ASAP is stating what Labour would cut and what/ where they’d spend (to boost/ support output and employment).

    The electorate are going to want answers to this otherwise some/ many of them will return to ‘Daddy’ (see west wing series 7) at the next election. Again- as I have said many times before- the sooner Labour state clearly what they would do differently and what they would do the same, the longer Labour has for it to bed down in the electorates psyche.

    Furthermore- as @JimJam amongst others has pointed out today and before- its quite possible we’ll see the government make the kinds of fiscal changes the IMF hinted at today.

    In which case it will be George rather than Ed who catches the electorates wedding bouquet because a 5 point plan won’t amount to a hill of beans in that scrum to claim the credit- it will be the government. The government always has the policy advantage: 5 year fixed term or not !

    Furthermore the notion of ‘the beauty of opposition is that we don’t need any policy detail’ (based on previous GE cycles) is rather naive given that this is a GE cycle (and context) unlike any other in the post 1930’s depression period.

    8-)

  12. Anthony

    Since you know where all panellists live, why did YouGov ask me which private water company I pay my bills to?

    Isn’t this a tad incompetent? I replied “Don’t Know”, since there wasn’t an option to say I pay my “water bills” through the Council Tax mechanism for water and sewerage services provided by Scottish Water – belonging to the Scottish Government. In that my position is exactly the same as every other Scottish householder.

    Won’t my response distort your figures?

  13. The post below got lost in moderation hell in the previous thread. Given all the stuff above in italics, it seems appropriate to post it again here. Who knows, in the spirit of reciprocity Michael Thrasher might even provide an answer:

    @Rob Sheffield
    “Labour won 39% of the national equivalent share of the vote, compared to 33% for the Conservatives and 15% for the Liberal Democrats.”

    Those must be the Rawlings and Thrasher estimates, which the HoC always use. There is a fair chance that they flatter the Lib Dems, even in a local election scenario.

    I understand that the estimates are based on the share in the vote in three way contests. But we know that the LDs are now contesting far fewer seats than in 2010, ignoring many where they stand no chance. So it may well be that the estimates are effectively based on vote shares in seats cherry picked by the LDs as being the most favourable to them. It’s possible that there may be some sort of final adjustment to allow for this, but maybe not. Can anyone familiar with the R&T methodology provide an answer?

  14. @CROSSBAT11

    Personally I look at the trends, rather than the single polls. Yes, it’s fun to have a “Oh look at Labour on 44% (or some other variable and party) for one day” moment, but down that road lies partisanship. Once you start down the dark side etc.

    The economy will be the decider, with the possible exception of a Brown-esc series of mishaps and disasterous decisions in the six months preceding the election.

    @JIM

    I’ll stick with deluded. If the majority of UKIP voters have to choose between a government with Conservatives included, or one with Labour, they traditionally vote for the former. They might support UKIP, but they’ll vote for the party that will get them the most likely desirable result.

  15. Alec,

    ‘the German’s [sic] don’t have a word for zeitgeist’….

    Enjoyed that quote….

    May prove to be fortuitous that they don’t have a word for schadenfreude either…..

  16. @Jim, I agree with that.

    although some of the medium parties get enough seats that a big party would go to if needed to form a coalition. Or else they express their influence another way, by denying them a majority but not getting any seats.

    I can’t see anyone going into coalition with the BNP.

  17. @ Jim

    “and anyone who believes that UKIP are not going to win at least one seat at the next election while they are on 9 % (and rising quickly since last year) is deluded.”

    I haven’t noticed much of a rise since UKIP hit the 7/8/9 mark. They have been fluctuating around that level for a while now. I still believe that there is a small possibility that UKIP won’t get any seats. Their 9% is pretty evenly distributed across the country, so they may not be able to form majorities, and when people are faced with the real choice of the tories or what is perceived as a one-issue party like UKIP, I think they’ll go for tories (although I’d much prefer UKIP to gain votes and for the right votes to be split).

  18. Leaving Buckingham to one side, what seat is UKIP’s best chance in 2015?

  19. @Ben Nite,

    Any one of several supposedly safe Tory seats on the HS2 route.

  20. @BEN NITE
    One of the working class Tory seats in the South East,not sure which one…Nigel Farage lives in Kent I believe and he is their best chance obviously.

  21. Crossbat,

    “It’s all getting very tiresome”

    It will be if you keep going on about it. Grown men, same party, move on…….

  22. Rob S.

    You WILL persist in seeing only downside threats for the Labour party.. Eh well. Where to start?

    “its quite possible we’ll see the government make the kinds of fiscal changes the IMF hinted at today.
    In which case it will be George rather than Ed who catches the electorates wedding bouquet because a 5 point plan won’t amount to a hill of beans in that scrum to claim the credit- it will be the government. The government always has the policy advantage: 5 year fixed term or not !”

    Yes. Right. So, Osborne reduces VAT and we all live on ambrosia and nectar for all eternity and prostrate ourselves at his feet for his God-like munificence?

    Or, Osborne reduces VAT, it just about scrapes the bottom off the double-dip recession and he spends the next 3 years fighting off the EB rottweiler who screams at every opportunity, “Why the f**** did you put up VAT in the first place and chuck us back into recession when we and every sane analyst were saying that it would choke off growth.”?

    The reality will be somewhere between those two examples, but if I were spread betting, I know which extreme would be getting my dosh.

    “the notion of ‘the beauty of opposition is that we don’t need any policy detail’ (based on previous GE cycles) is rather naive given that this is a GE cycle (and context) unlike any other in the post 1930?s depression period.”

    Yes, yes, yes. But if there’s one common factor about all administrations, it’s that they exist in unique times. I persist in my stupidity for not understanding why this era is SO unique that the basic laws of opposition should be abrogated.

  23. Jim

    “and anyone who believes that UKIP are not going to win at least one seat at the next election while they are on 9 % (and rising quickly since last year) is deluded”
    ____________

    Okay so if UKIP win 9% at the next UK election where do you propose that they will pick up some seats?

    Remember at even 8% the Lib/Dems could still pick up around 20 seats as they do have areas of the country where they are string..ie The South West and the Northern isles but when it comes to UKIP then I think their vote is too thinly spread right across the country.

  24. #…strong

  25. CROSSBAT

    Labour were polling 15% above the SNP (and heading for a majority) just weeks before the Scottish election and then it all blew up in their faces in spectacular fashion and I do mean “spectacular” ;)

    So with 3 years to go a 12% 14% or even a 15% lead does not guarantee you election success..

    Just as Jeeves…better still ask Subway Gray. :)

  26. Maybe UKIP should have a separate place on the UKPollingReport polling average.

    I’m not a UKIP supporter myself – okay, I know I can’t prove it! – but that isn’t the reason for my comment above. It’s just that they’ve been ahead of the LDs in quite a number of polls recently.

  27. @Statgeek.

    “I’ll stick with deluded. If the majority of UKIP voters have to choose between a government with Conservatives included, or one with Labour, they traditionally vote for the former. They might support UKIP, but they’ll vote for the party that will get them the most likely desirable result.”

    I do think UKIP’s support is too thinly spread to win seats on current numbers but it must be around 2.5 million now. They’re pretty close. The Tories definitely need a change of leadership as far as I can tell. Though I’d rather hope they keep pretending UKIP doesn’t exist.

  28. @STAN

    One guesses that Europe as an issue will be settled one way or another by 2015, so the Conservatives will have made their policy for 2015 election by then.

    If Europe fails, why vote UKIP? If Europe remains, the Conservatives will quite possibly be faced with an in/out referendum, but only if they win the election.

    I think Labour too will pop up with an in/out 2015 manifesto pledge, with a view to worrying about it only if elected. Great ammunition if in oppostion. Not so great if elected.

    Like betting on your favourite team’s opponents : Either way, you win.

  29. @STATGEEK

    “Like betting on your favourite team’s opponents : Either way, you win.”

    That’s how I see. I’ll still vote UKIP if they exist but it’d be nice to have a LibCon referendum promise to fall back on. I’m not convinced they’d keep it but it’d certainly spice things up.

  30. First?!

  31. On a more serious note, I have been expecting the L lead over C to narrow due to DC’s charm offensive over the last two weeks, the EU prob, and also because the gov (for now) seem to have avoided further self-harm.

    So, to see, L still ahead by broadly 11 points perhaps indicates perhaps that voters perceptions about the gov and DC are beginning to harden?

  32. Good Morning All.
    At the risk of upsetting CROSSBAT 11,

    I think the polls and the local elections point to a near dead heat in 2015 between Conservatives and Labour.

    I find it hard to envisage Conservatives going much lower. They can easily pick up votes from other parties.

  33. I can easily envisage Tories getting lower. the trial of Coulson, a third recession at the end of this year start of next ought to do it. I can’t however envisage Labour getting much higher.

  34. “They can easily pick up votes from other parties.”
    From where?

    Assuming that UKIP fall back to 3% (2010 result), that could potentially give them 38% – but that’s quite the assumption, without any sort of give to try to woo them (in the same way that Labour decide that everybody left of Blair is ‘their voters’ and just assumes they’ll vote Labour).
    My rough-estimate-ometer (beware, subsamples) also suggests that 4-5% (as opposed to the whole 6) are from Con, cutting that down to 36-37 (still potentially a majority winning figure under new boundaries but essentially sitting still).

    But it depends where ex-Libs and previous non-voters go – if this really is a ‘realignment of the left’ then Lab pretty much have 38-40% ‘in the bag’ and that makes it very difficult for the Tories. (A scenario which right now I’m not so sure about).
    So where are the Tories going to grab that extra few % in order to definitely keep away Labour?

  35. TINGED FRINGE.
    In from the sun for a minute!
    I do not believe that Labour has voters in the bag since society is becoming so atomised; de alignment is so deep now.

    The Conservatives are capable, IMO, of reaching into ‘Laboour’ and LD territory.

  36. There is some news which may actually boost the coalition’s standing over the next few years – Nick Clegg has revealed that it was decided that after Hollande won the government will engage in ‘massive’ infrastructure/housing spending (what we might traditionally call Keynesian stimulus), but that this isn’t a depart from Plan-A as Plan-A led to the market confidence in which they can now spend.

    If they can convince the public that this isn’t Plan B and couple it with other demand increasing policies (a temporary VAT cut for the Olympics ‘due to increased tourism), then they may see the necessary recovery in order to recover votes.

  37. Chris,
    Based on what evidence?

  38. As far as the economy is concerned, if the Government does a u-turn and gets stimulating, stops cutting and effectively turns to Plan B but calls it something else, then I don’t care as long as it works.

    If they do the right thing however reluctantly and it works and they get the credit electorally, then so be it. They would deserve it.

    At the moment (Beecroft) ideology is putting smoke in their eyes so they can’t see what everybody can now see…austerity isn’t working.

  39. TINGED FRINGE.
    Evidence for atomisation and de alignment by class and by partisan attachment very well researched.

    In terms of the potential of the Conservatives to reach into Labour, Liberal and UKIP voting territory is based on
    first: the tory record of always winning three terms except for the peculiar circumstances of 1974. (and 1874-80).
    Secondly, Peter Kellner’s research shows the conservative attitudes of many voters.

    Thirdly, a hunch, that ED will not quite be able to convince enough of our people, to use Bevin’s phrase.

  40. We’ve been on Plan B for some time, certainly since the last budget declined to increase spending cuts to make up for lower growth. The government are still talking plan A (A for Austerity) but in fact executing a lukewarm plan B.

    Of course they have realised plan A is unworkable, but it would be politically impossible to admit it, because then the rationale for the whole coalition project of deficit reduction would be undermined.

    It would be interesting to see how you could get a massive stimulus plan through without changing the rhetoric. For, according to plan A an increased deficit should lead to “loss of confidence” and therefore (somehow) a deteriorating economy.

    The truth that no-one dare say is that the deficit is irrelevant when interest rates are zero. The government can borrow and invest without any constraints until recovery comes and interest rates rise and we all shout hallelujah.

    Interesting to see that Miliband made the case for stimulus in the FT the other day, but in a very sheepish way: “Germany and other low-interest rate countries should be spending more” is roughly what he said. How many people would realise that he was talking about the UK?

  41. “Leaving Buckingham to one side, what seat is UKIP’s best chance in 2015?”

    Their second best result in 2010 was Boston and Skegness, but that’s rather symptomatic of their difficulties in winning a seat. They took a respectable 9.5%, but still came fourth, and were almost 40% behind the Conservatives. That’s a massive swing needed.

    Additionally, they don’t hold any seats on Boston Borough Council (even the English Democrats won two). While they finally seem to be taking local elections seriously, that’s not yet translated into seats, and it’s very difficult for a party with broadly based support to win a seat without a lot of local visibilty. If they want to win a seat at the next general election, they should study what the Greens did in Brighton Pavilion and try to repeat that in a suitable seat.

  42. Phil – I don’t know about the Rallings & Thrasher version, but the BBC version is a projection of what the support would be if all wards had Con, Lab, LD and other candidates. In that sense it attempts to cancel out differential patterns of contestation (and given the Lib Dems contest a lower proportion of wards than the Conservatives and Labour overestimates the actual level of support they’d get if there were local elections across the whole country).

    The calculations are based on looking at the swing in only seats where all 3 main parties stood last time AND this time, so if the Lib Dems choose not to contest wards where they expect to perform very badly then it would remove them from the calculation and artifically inflate their level of support.

    Whether John Curtice made any change to account for this, and whether Rallings & Thrasher do the same or not, I do not know.

    Robin/Ben Nite/Allan – at that level of support UKIP have minimal chance of actually winning any seats. They would need to have a concentration of support somewhere or other in order to break through. Robin’s suggestion of rural Tory seats on the HS2 route is a good one, but they would need to have a strong base in local government there to give them the manpower, lay down the groundwork and convince people that they are viable and could actually win – they need to build up viable targets in the way the Greens did in Brighton. Presently there is no sign of them doing that anywhere.

  43. I agree with Nick (haven’t I heard that somewhere before) if the Govt change course it won’t matter that they were imo slow to do so.
    More importantly as Nick implies the electorate won’t care either or penalise them for being rather laggardly in their conversion.
    Slight disagreement Nich that I don’t think the coalition would deserve much electoral credit as imo they have been so wrong since its’ inception but the reality is they would benefit. The difference with 1997 when the Economy was improving was 18 years in power but more signiifcantly Black Wednesday (with a certain DC in the treasury) had destroyed the cons econimic credibility.

  44. @Andy JS – “Maybe UKIP should have a separate place on the UKPollingReport polling average.”

    It would be interesting to see some kind of tracking of Ukip VI over the years. Does such a thing exist?

    Ukip VI surges around EU election time, but have they had a comparable surge to this current one (mid-term in the EU election cycle)?

    If we had information we might be able to make more informed judgements about what proportion possibly reverts to Tory at a GE. There is an argument that Ukip could become a larger depository for right of centre protest now that both Con and LD are governing parties.

    All we can say is that Ukip have made progress in recent GEs:
    0.3% (1997*),1.5% (2001), 2.2% (2005), 3.1% (2010).

    *Referendum Party 2.6%

  45. Billybob – “Does such a thing exist?”

    Short answer is, as far as I know, no.

  46. @chrislane1945 – “… the tory record of always winning three terms except for the peculiar circumstances of 1974 (and 1874-80).

    “Between the first reform act 1832 and the third one in 1884, the Conservative won only two general elections.

    In 1841 Sir Robert Peel became PM and proceeded to demonstrate how a Conservative leader could adapt to change. So successful was he in this enterprise that his own followers repudiated him….

    Occasionally when Liberal quarrels became too vicious and the party split, the Conservatives would be allowed to hold office until the natural party of government decided to bury the hatchet – usually in the back of the Conservatives.” (Charmley, 1996)

  47. HOODED MAN

    And perhaps the French no word for ennui – but perhaps they’re never bored….peut-être; peut-être;peut-être…

  48. Clegg seems to be announcing a wholesale abandonment of austerity in favour of stimulus.

    tee hee

    Hope it works. Even if it might see Tory gains in the polls.

  49. Labour do not need to publish any detailed plan, no matter who calls for one, until an election is called… they do however need to have a plan ready because we are moving into a very turbulent few years…

    Trying to guess who is going to be the next government is very boring… and all sides giving evidence of why… is well… partisan.

    Why not just say the poll leaders have a slight advantage at the moment, and problems with the EZ and two more years of cuts could swing the polls one way or another…

    J

  50. @AW

    Thanks, perhaps some kind person will set about trying to extract some data on Ukip VI over the years.

    Please scub last comment… mod bot has found something objectionable about 19C Con history. ;)

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