With ICM’s poll earlier today showing a boost for the Conservatives and most other polls showing Labour increasing their lead since the locals, Populus’s monthly poll for the Times is somewhere inbetween, showing no significant change at all since the local elections. Topline figures are CON 33%(nc), LAB 41%(-1), LDEM 10%(-1) Others 16%.

UPDATE: The rest of Populus’s poll asked about Britain’s EU membership, economic policy and the perceptions of the party leaders. On the EU 21% said they were positive about British EU membership compared to 31% who were negative. On economic policy, in what appears to be a forced choice question 49% said that the government should stick to its current policy of prioritising dealing with the deficit by 2017, 51% thought it should slow the pace of cuts.

On the party leaders, Populus repeated an exercise they did a year ago, giving people a list of words and asking which they most associated with each of the party leaders. A year ago Cameron scored best on being determined amd arrogant, Miliband and Clegg both weak and out of his depth. We’ll have to wait for the details of the poll to see the full changes here, but according to the Times’ write up more people see Cameron as out of touch than a year ago, but he continues to be seem as standing up for Britain. Miliband’s top ratings continue to be weak and out of his depth.

Meanwhile, the daily YouGov poll in the Sun has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 44%, LDEM 7% and Others 16% (with UKIP in third place on 8%) – very typical of YouGov’s polls since the local elections.


163 Responses to “Populus/Times – CON 33, LAB 41, LDEM 10”

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  1. First?

  2. http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-18144783

    The most amusing article I’ve seen today. [snip]

  3. I suspect the Tory vote is maybe consolidating a little, ‘cos they have not been producing of late, quite the appaling piles of pooh that were occuring….

  4. @HOODED MAN
    `These Etonians are so out of touch`

    Not sure about `out of touch` but just a bit rude…Especially when he wanted Merkel to loosen the purse-strings…But again Chelsea winning on penalties,maybe it is excusable.

  5. Well it seems to a bit of a non event at the moment ,apart
    from the Eurozone falling apart as it were.The polls.who
    knows.Off to watch Game of thrones.Life in the hard lane.

  6. But what of course that biased report fails to mention is the immediate hug of consolation that David Cameron gave Angela Merkel immediately afterwards. Merkel was the one who wnated to watch the penalty shoot out. What is interesting is the glumface of Barrosa in response to a Chelsea win.

    Together with ICM these polls seem to show that at the least the blues slide has been arrested and Labour are at best staying the same but could have hit their peak. We shall see.

  7. @Hooded Man

    Can’t criticise Cameron for that! He’s not celebrating in Merkel’s face.

  8. PETER BUSS

    Well said.

    A few facts usually help.

    Why DC has been criticised for this is beyond me.

    If he had shown no interest he would have been portrayed as an Etonian snob-or a Merkel puppet.

    He certainly can’t win at present with some people.

    Personally I’m glad to have a PM who can show emotion & compassion in that way-beats chucking mobile phones & kicking doors. :-) :-)

  9. Just spotted the reference in that DM article to the DT article with picture of DC & AM on a different occasion.

    I suppose that was permisable because England lost ?

    Jeez !

  10. Absolutely Colin. To my mind there is something rather sinister and deeply unpleasant with what appears to be a concerted attack on the guy even to the extent of slagging him off for taking his wife out for a meal.

  11. @ Colin

    Personally I’m glad to have a PM who can show emotion & compassion in that way-beats chucking mobile phones & kicking doors.
    ————————
    Yes, getting excited about Chelsea winning a football match certainly speaks to DC’s compassionate nature :roll: Brown’s efforts on debt forgiveness for developing nations & the huge amount of time & effort he spends on promoting the education & welfare of children in the developing world all counts for naught against throwing one’s arms in the air when Chelsea wins.
    8-)

  12. Could ‘gold standard’ ICM clawback and Populus no change augur the end of 10 point Labour lead polldrums and a medium term closing of the gap?

    Or will YG puncture the air of optimism over on political betting tonight with more 14 pointers this week??

    Just for laughs I’ll go with tonight as

    LAB 42
    CON 33
    LD 9
    UKIP 8

  13. @PETER BUSS
    ` Labour are at best staying the same but could have hit their peak.`

    Are you kidding?Milliband hasn`t even offered the EU referendum yet :)

  14. Smukesh/Raf/Peter Buss/Colin,

    Apologies, I should have made clearer the sarcasm. I’ve never read such nonsense. It was hardly offensive. An ‘ear-cup’ to Merkel, followed by a “Can you hear the Germans sing…..” might, on the other hand, have merited some opprobrium. But as Colin said, stony-faced and stifled humility would have been panned too.
    I see Anthony has also snipped my comment and therefore missed the dryness of the “Out of touch” reference. That’ll learn me…. :-)

  15. Poor Angela Merkel. Destiny has pointed a finger at Mrs Merkel & she has a hard choice to make. She can go down in history as the woman who saved the euro but it will cost her Party the next election. Or she can continue to say no to eurobonds, insist on maximum austerity for Greece & possibly go on to win the next election whilst the euro project crashes & burns around her.

    To add to her misery, Munich lost to Chelsea on penalties & – worst of all – she had to endure a public hug from David Cameron & she wasn’t even wearing a hoodie at the time! ;-)

  16. @AMBER STAR
    `she had to endure a public hug from David Cameron & she wasn’t even wearing a hoodie at the time! `

    :)

  17. The business about the football seems so utterly ridiculous..Can anyone imagine Macmillan becoming so excited over something so trivial with Adenauer – or Wilson /Heath with Brandt , Callaghan with Schmidt or even Thatcher with Kohl?

  18. I see the Times is reverting to type over coverage about Labour and polls…All the more reason for Labour to offer that referendum at a convenient time and seize the initiative,IMO

  19. @Hooded Man

    Hoodwinked by your sarcasm ;(

    It’s all a storm in a (European) Cup.

    His comments on JT wouldn’t have done him any harm either.

  20. The Guadrian – reporting on the ICM poll – has a little something for both Blue & Red on the economy.

    “Mistrust of Labour also emerges when people are asked to put their overall political preference to one side, and consider which team they most trust to run the economy properly. Some 44% prefer Cameron and chancellor George Osborne, as against 35% who would rather Ed Miliband and his shadow chancellor Ed Balls were in charge of the finances. While substantial, this nine-point Tory lead on the economy has been diminishing steadily. The gap was 21 points in December, 18 in January, 17 in March and 13 in April before closing by another four points over the last month.”

  21. Latest YouGov/The Sun results 21st May CON 32%, LAB 44%, LD 7%, UKIP 8%; APP -35

  22. YG poll is out, 12 point lead for reds, with LD on 7

  23. Usual questions come to mind, but the GE is by no means in the bag, and the Cons can easily recover, though I do not see Labour dropping very far from 39%

  24. Labour remaining at 44% on YG even when Government [dis]approval is only -35. Maybe there’s more to this 40+ than just the Tories self-inflicted omnishambles.
    8-)

  25. @NickP

    12 points. So the trend is the same.

  26. FPT @Graham (and others)
    I gave up caring about club football around the time that (a) it became a prerequisite of success to be owned by a Russian oligarch, a sheikh or a pair of Americans who were neither but had apparently convinced the financial markets otherwise and (b) it became impossible to tell that our leading teams played in England by looking at the names of their players. Cameron seems keen to reinforce the “posh boy” image by revelling in Kensington and Chelsea’s success. He’ll need to do a lot better than that.

    BTW in case you hadn’t noticed (and thanks to the greed of the ECB many won’t have) England won a very close test match today.

  27. Not FPT!

  28. I can just imagine Dave “down with the people/all in this together” Cameron in that link above from hooded man seconds later after the picture is taken saying to one of his spads “Chelsea are in blue, right? I just saw the blues score against the reds and got excited”. Obama then says “your not used to winning things outright, are you?” :-)

  29. @SMukesh

    I’ve already pointed out that offering a Euro Referendum is a long term disaster that gains little for Labour.

    Who exactly will swing to Labour due to it? The people who have Europe as their deciding factor? They’re already voting UKIP.

    Who does Labour stand to alienate? The LibDem voters who have defected to them. It would also potentially create a split in the Labour party over Europe, when that’s supposed to be the Conservative’s problem.

    It’s a horrible idea promoted by those who see only short term opportunism of kicking Cameron while he’s down. It’s purely base popularism, running on a knee jerk reaction to the Euro Zone crisis. It’s essentially the same thing as Cameron’s ‘Veto’ and look how that turned out.

    Sure European membership electrifies voters. But any politicians who touches it gets electrocuted.

  30. @CHRISLANE1945
    “with LD on 7”

    This is becoming almost like a permanent fixture like Lab on 44.

  31. Another 12 pointer- time to ‘chillax’

  32. @Jay Blanc
    Very sensible post. I don’t know why EM is trying to outflank the Cons on the eurosceptic side. Unless Lab will go full throttle FOR EU membership and not limply let its membership go with their personal preference like the AV referendum.

    I especially like the allusion to electrocution. Are you a copywriter in real life?

    Yet another comfortable double-digit lead. Not bad.

  33. @JAYBLANC
    `I’ve already pointed out that offering a Euro Referendum is a long term disaster that gains little for Labour.
    Who exactly will swing to Labour due to it? The people who have Europe as their deciding factor? They’re already voting UKIP.`

    I am as Europhilic as the next man…Better having a relationship with social democratic Europe than neo-conservative U.S…But out relations with EU lacks a democratic consent at the moment…Also a sensible leader like Ed will not be floating such ideas as Lord`s referendum and very close aides like Peter Hain won`t be briefing pro-referendum without the referendum being seriously considered.

    Humour me with this but with the complete alienation of News International with the Lib/Lab collaboration on the Culture Select Committee report,I do believe that there will be an attack on Milliband and Labour at some point (today`s Times carries reports of Ed Milliband/Balls rift)…With News International being euro-sceptic,they`ll be careful about such an attack if Milliband endears himself to the public by offering a referendum.

  34. YouGov, the double digit dudes of polling strike gold again! Forget about Populus and ICM with their measly 5%s and 8%s, give me YG, and my all time favourites Angus Reid, any day of the week (apart from Sunday when they get all miserly for some reason).

    Any more of this and I will booking my hotel in London for May 2015, just so I can be in the box seats for Ed’s Blairesque walk up Downing Street, mobbed by wellwishers and hand-picked ordinary members of the public.

    It’s almost in the bag, isn’t it??

    Lol

  35. On the subject of Labour possibly offering a referendum, I assume EM would offer the referendum, but then paradoxically campaign for the status quo.
    Is there an historical precedent for a government offering a referendum they want to fail?

    Oh yes – AV!

  36. @Phil

    Yesterday’s play was what Test cricket is all about. A team on the very edge of the precipice fighting like lions to wrest the initiative with steadfastness, patience and a total unwillingness to yield to the inevitable. Thay they ultimately lost matters not.

  37. LIZ H and CROSS BAT 11
    No need to get the chablis or to be complacent IMO.

    The Conservatives can win from here.

    Kinnock was further ahead than this at times and lost, I seem to remember…

  38. @Jayblanc
    “Who does Labour stand to alienate? The LibDem voters who have defected to them.”

    That’s not what the polling evidence suggests, at least in terms of LD defectors as a whole.

    On the assumption that all but a handful of the 99 remaining LD voters in Sunday’s YouGov sample were included in the 356 who voted LD in 2010, you can derive the opinions of 257 who can be held to have deserted the LDs since 2010. And of those 257, I calculate that, in response to the question in Sunday’s poll, 98 would vote to remain in the EU, 100 to leave and the rest DV/DK.

    And apart from those 100 favouring withdrawal, some of the rest would like a referendum either on democratic principles or to provide bargaining power for renegotiation, even though they might eventually vote to stay in.

  39. @Cloudspotter
    “Is there an historical precedent for a government offering a referendum they want to fail?”

    Maybe not, but there is a precedent for an opposition Labour Leader.

    Wilson in 1974. And he probably won because of it.

  40. @Raf
    Agree. The Windies have been through such a trough that it’s good to see them competitive again.

  41. @CHRISLANE1945 @CROSS BAT 11
    “No need to get the chablis or to be complacent IMO.
    The Conservatives can win from here.
    Kinnock was further ahead than this at times and lost, I seem to remember…”

    We might as well enjoy ourselves until then. I say more Chablis.

    On a serious note, I think there will be a backlash from the Tory papers near election time so we should not become complacent.

  42. Polldrums again, universal too (well three today) . Does ICM previous vote weighting diminish as the years roll by?

  43. Colin/Peter Buss

    A bit of a bunker mentality going on here chaps. There are 23 paragraphs in that article. I counted 4 which at a stretch might be considered critical of Cameron’s reactions and 4 which might be considered supportive.

    Personally, I find the fact of him cheering in Merkel’s presence less repellent than the fact that he supports that unpleasant, unlovely bunch of cheating mercenaries, but there you go. He’s just lost another half dozen seats in the North and Midlands ;)

  44. @Chris Lane
    “Kinnock was further ahead than this at times and lost, I seem to remember…”

    Apart from the minor matter of a change of Conservative leader, Kinnock wasn’t helped when the LD’s staged a limited recovery from the polling nadir around the shambles of the birth.

    So, on the night of what appears to be a post 2010 LD nadir, should we interpret your comment as a prediction of a LD recovery? From you of all people?

  45. @CL45

    “Kinnock was further ahead than this at times and lost, I seem to remember…”

    So, are you expecting the Tories to ditch Cameron and replace him with a ‘wet’? Clarke? I can’t think of another Tory ‘wet’ in the entire cabinet.

  46. @Lefty

    “Personally, I find the fact of him cheering in Merkel’s presence less repellent than the fact that he supports that unpleasant, unlovely bunch of cheating mercenaries”

    I suspect that the electorate will view it along lines roughly corresponding to their existing prejudices: A good old patriot, supporting the English (sic) team; or a Tory posh boy trying to fake an interest for the sake of the cameras.

    For myself, you’ll be unsurprised to hear I fall into the latter category. As a previously-obsessive footy fan who has watched his team both win and lose in penalty shootouts, I find something very unconvincing about Cameron’s body language. It’s not the uncontrolled posture of someone overcome with excitement, which you would expect at the point of victory in a penalty shootout, it’s a calculated demonstrative stance.

  47. Lefty

    Bit harsh on the Villa aren’t you?

  48. Yes, Kinnock was further ahead than Ed is 3 years before the election of ’92 and lost. But Thatcher had a much smaller lead in ’76 than Ed does now and still won in ’79. Thats anecdotes for you.

  49. On Euro referendum; @jayblanc’s belief that a referendum promise would be a future disaster for Labour is interesting. However, the debate on here (and elsewhere) is focused on party political maneuvering and (in my view) is missing the point.

    There is a much more significant issue at stake, which is the question of whether the EU is still doing what we want it to do, and whether we are still prepared to lend it our democratic authority.

    To say a referendum would be a ‘disaster’ for party X or Y is effectively to say that we have agreed never to change anything. In my view, this is a recipe for poor governance. Institutions must be challenged by democratic process, otherwise they become ossified and obsolete.

    As ever, we are told that ‘we can’t leave the EU’ and ‘leaving the EU would be a disaster’. We can, and it wouldn’t be. An upheaval yes, but a disaster no. If being in the EU was essential to existence, every nation would have to be in it.

    On poll; – interesting divergence tonight – someone has got it wrong. It’s also interesting that we are beginning to see a new dynamic emerge that Lib Dems will be extremely grateful about.

    Coverage of the Beecroft, a Taxpayer Alliance report into tax reform and Hilton’s casual insistence that a further £25b can be stripped from wellfare bills have really put the ideological right wing theories into the spotlight, and putting aside debate on whether they are correct or not, they are simply not palatable to most voters.

    I can see the foundations being laid for a retoxification of Brand Tory, while at the same time the actions of Cable and others have firmly established the Lib Dems as the voice of reason within the coalition.

    With the government failing to deliver growth, the position becomes ever more difficult for Cameron to balance. His own side are becoming increasingly vociferous and will continue to promote their more radical solutions. The Lib Dems will craft a position of opposition to this and become more relevant once the Tories return to being ‘nasty’. Labour sit on the sidelines and say ‘same old Tories’.

    How this develops will largely depend on internal Tory party dynamics, but if the government can’t get growth moving and the Tory right continue to become emboldened, we could well point to May 2012 as the start of a very significant shift.

  50. PHIL, ROBIN.

    I think Kinnock lost in 1987 to Mrs Thatcher, having been ahead prior to that GE. Fulham By Election with Nick Raynsford?

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