With ICM’s poll earlier today showing a boost for the Conservatives and most other polls showing Labour increasing their lead since the locals, Populus’s monthly poll for the Times is somewhere inbetween, showing no significant change at all since the local elections. Topline figures are CON 33%(nc), LAB 41%(-1), LDEM 10%(-1) Others 16%.

UPDATE: The rest of Populus’s poll asked about Britain’s EU membership, economic policy and the perceptions of the party leaders. On the EU 21% said they were positive about British EU membership compared to 31% who were negative. On economic policy, in what appears to be a forced choice question 49% said that the government should stick to its current policy of prioritising dealing with the deficit by 2017, 51% thought it should slow the pace of cuts.

On the party leaders, Populus repeated an exercise they did a year ago, giving people a list of words and asking which they most associated with each of the party leaders. A year ago Cameron scored best on being determined amd arrogant, Miliband and Clegg both weak and out of his depth. We’ll have to wait for the details of the poll to see the full changes here, but according to the Times’ write up more people see Cameron as out of touch than a year ago, but he continues to be seem as standing up for Britain. Miliband’s top ratings continue to be weak and out of his depth.

Meanwhile, the daily YouGov poll in the Sun has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 44%, LDEM 7% and Others 16% (with UKIP in third place on 8%) – very typical of YouGov’s polls since the local elections.


163 Responses to “Populus/Times – CON 33, LAB 41, LDEM 10”

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  1. I stand well and truly corrected. Had a couple of manic 12 hour days and haven’t had time to keep up with the nuances of the news, so I just read the BBC website’s précis of the IMF utterances. That discussed Lagarde’s gushing praise for the deficit reduction and her advice on yet more monetary action but didn’t mention the advice on fiscal loosening. Bloody right-wing conspiracy. Don’t know why I payy licence fee etc…

    Rob S. A peculiar interpretation if you don’t mind me saying so. Balls has been hammering on the theme of VAT for 18 months. He’s also been hammering on the theme of the danger of growth stalling under Osborne’s Austerity. He has been given a killer pass by the IMF today. He can now say, “Didn’t we tell you what Austerity with no plan for growth would do? Didn’t we say that the VAT increase was a monumental mistake?”

    Of course, Osborne’s response will be “What would you have cut to get the deficit under control?” But the beauty of being in Opposition is that you don’t have to answer that. If you are a sufficiently skillful politician, you can pop up, land the left hook with your well-prepared big-picture, easy-to-digest comment, then vanish when Osborne asks for detail. If you ate skillful enough, you leave the impression of having the Big Picture called correctly, and you avoid the devil in the detail. It’s not fair but it’s what Opposition is about.

    The policies for post-15 will come in time. What is pointless is getting involved in a pounds shillings and pence discussion about precisely what you would be doing now. No sane opposition ever does that at this stage of an administration. They concentrate on getting the Big Picture idea across instead, that the Govt’s policy is fatally flawed, we said so from the start and we are being proved right.

  2. @Lefty

    “Colin/Peter Buss
    A bit of a bunker mentality going on here chaps. There are 23 paragraphs in that article. I counted 4 which at a stretch might be considered critical of Cameron’s reactions and 4 which might be considered supportive.”

    Oh, I don’t know. I think it’s perfectly reasonable for them to complain. I mean, it’s not like Cameron’s predecesoor as PM was in any way unfairly attacked by the media. Let alone by right wing punters commenting on websites like this. Heaven forfend that anyone should ever criticise the person of Prime Minister!

    The ICM poll may be an outlier, it may be a methodology issue, but it may yet be an indication that Labour is not running away with it yet.

    Of course, it’s grim reading for the LDs.

  3. Contrary facts. Change the facts said Hegel.

    Tory vote shares, popular votes, in 1955, 1959, 1964, 1983, 1987, 1992 and even 1997 did better in those GE years than they were doing in polls and in bhy elections/ local authority elections 2 or 3 years prior to the GE of that year.

    Many reasons for these events. However, Tories seem to prosper in GE’s more than they do mid term.

  4. Latest YouGov/The Sun results 22nd May CON 32%, LAB 43%, LD 8%, UKIP 9%; APP -35

  5. http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/rv1tune9md/YG-Archives-Pol-Sun-results-220512.pdf

    Tories only 2% ahead in rest of south.

    I think we could see the Tories dip before the end of the week. The IMF suggested that the UK government needed to do a bit more, in regard to growth and jobs.

  6. I get the feeling that Hunt issue aside the Conservatives have got their act togther rather better in the last nuanced week or 2.
    I do not expect below 30 from a proper polling company bar an ourlier or 2 in the next few months.
    Usually hard for an opposition to make progress in polls during the summer recess unless event dear boy take over.
    Expect nuanced fiscal policy shift as many of us forecast when the coalition first started.

  7. LD and UKIP making huge steps forward and inflicting a severe blow on Labour (well, since last night).

  8. JimJam/R Huckle,

    Trudging home wearily after a frustratingly delayed commute, and couldn’t help but notice how neatly your posts juxtaposed. Who is right?

  9. @JIM JAM
    `I get the feeling that Hunt issue aside the Conservatives have got their act togther rather better in the last nuanced week or 2.`

    Agreed…They are helped by the fact that News International are back in the fold after the Conservative support in the Culture Select Committee…Rebekah Brooks didn`t release her texts as initially reported and Coulson was as tight-mouthed as possible…Milliband has made it harder for himself by standing by his principled opposition to Murdoch.

    But I also think after monumental cock-ups,some voters become immune to the Tory charms.

  10. I think that, forgetting my TIC posting (I hear chorus of oh yes), what strikes me is the remarkable consistency of YouGov daily polling. One would expect an outlier but they are seldom experienced. When one considers that each panel is totally different to the previous day’s one, it really is astounding.

  11. “@Hooded Man

    JimJam/R Huckle,

    Trudging home wearily after a frustratingly delayed commute, and couldn’t help but notice how neatly your posts juxtaposed. Who is right?”

    Me ( IMHO) ! Only gut feeling based on what I have seen in the tables over recent days/weeks.

    I am not sure we see any immediate change in VI due to most events, well apart from a spun budget that was badly handled. Normally there is a drip drip effect, as people start to lose trust in a party. The Tories have basically lost a good chunk of the VI of working women and with men, it is a bit up and down. There is also considerable flirting going on by Tory voters, looking at UKIP.

    My gut instinct suggests that a number of factors will come together and the Tories will dip to 30% or slightly below for a period.

  12. This is looking like a sustained surge in support for Ukip.

    Ok, eurozone problems are in the news, but is there another example of Ukip polling at this level any time other than during EU elections?

    Mainly disgruntled Cons, but also some 2010 LDs (tactical anti-Lab voters?). Could it be that we are seeing the formation of a larger pool of centre-right/right leaning voters who are not impressed by either of the coalition parties, who can’t necessarily be relied upon to return to their proper place and might be content to register a protest at the next election? Possibly not, but they are creating a headache for the modernising wing of of the Tory party fresh from their victory over the 1922.

  13. R Huckle,

    Thanks for the response – I’m blissfully clueless as to where VI will go next :-)

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