Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 43%, LDEM 8% and Others 17% (including UKIP on 9%). The eleven point Labour lead is in line with the average Labour leads of 12 or 13 points that recent YouGov polling suggestions and – once again – UKIP are ahead of the Lib Dems.

As usual I’ll do a proper post tomorrow when the tables appear.


96 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 32, LAB 43, LD 8, UKIP 9”

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  1. OLDNAT

    “As to his future in a UK Parliament election, I think he would be elected for any Highland constituency that he stood in – whatever his label”
    _______

    Highland Malt? ;)

  2. @Old Nat

    Last time I posted something similar, you came back with a remark about the Crofters movement in the 1880s – but thanks for your thanks. ;)

  3. ALLAN CHRISTIE

    Like all good politicians, he would declare his loyalty to the distilleries in the relevant constituency.

    It’s his bad luck that Laphroaig is currently in the neighbouring constituency, but on new boundaries???

  4. BILLY BOB

    If you posted that earlier, then I had clearly forgotten.

    Must be the drink! Can I be an MP? :-)

  5. @RAF
    `It might happen. But unlikely.`

    If an English team can beat the Germans in Germany on penalties,then anything can happen

    Maybe the Chelsea footballers were motivated by presence of Osborne in the stands,their way of saying thanks for cutting their taxes.

  6. SMUKESH

    “their way of saying thanks for cutting their taxes.”

    I thought most footballers were paid through various company/trust etc devices, and thus paid little in the way of tax anyway – rather like many senior civil servants.

  7. it seems atm that the labour lead is limited to the low teens, rather than going to 15-20% (perhaps when the fuel duty hike comes, it might rise sharply), and also the Conservatives are just staying above 30%, still within range (just) of a recovery to get a possible OM.

    It’s going to be interesting predicting how many seats the LD’s get next time, if they stay at 8-9% till the next GE. Things get a bit fiddly with such low scores, to get a seat at this level of national support, there needs to be a distinctly non-uniform swing locally, which by definition a UNS swing calculator can’t easily pick up.
    Thankfully for the LD’s, their support is somewhat more clumped together/regional, so their chances of ending up with no seats is much less than that of UKIP, who seem to have quite even support. Enough to distort the result of a close election, not enough to get anyone into parliament.

    Who knows, perhaps things will start going right for the government? Or at least, a bit less bad?

  8. As a Chelsea supporter I have to be just a little bit partisan right now and say YAY!!!!!!!!!!!!

    At last…. now for Labour to get on and win the next election…

    :)

  9. @Old Nat

    You and Amber Star both… glad to see you’ve opted for the HoC.

  10. @OLD NAT
    `I thought most footballers were paid through various company/trust etc devices, and thus paid little in the way of tax anyway`

    If they keep winning big trophies,am sure the fans won`t begrudge a bit of tax dodging.

  11. @ Billy Bob

    :-)

  12. BILLY BOB

    Naturally.

    The salary and expenses are better at Westminster, and the workload, for those not holding policy briefs, is considerably less for Scots MPs.

    Even better, I could be like Gordon Brown and not even bother turning up!

  13. SMUKESH

    “If they keep winning big trophies,am sure the fans won`t begrudge a bit of tax dodging”

    Have you heard of Glasgow Rangers? Tax dodging is a short term fix, that brings short term gain – and long term pain.

    Strangely reminiscent of Labour’s devotion to PFI.

  14. Good early morn.

    Times seem to be changing in footy and politics.

  15. Just back.

    I still think the Cons and the Labs will be very much ‘neck and neck in 2015.

    Night all

  16. Having fought the 1992 GE and 1994 EE as the Labour candidate in LD West Country territory, what has struck me is the social democratic consensus which spans Labour and LD supporters in respect of full employment,public health and social security, institutitonal market structures, including banking, designed to respond to social market, jobs, family and business, needs, Keynsian public sector investment in housing and infrastructure, fair taxation and internationalism aimed at regulated and equitable trade and aid provision. On the doorstep, concerns over Government or opposition policies and performance around these issues come a long way before judgments on political leadership. Jobs, housing, health, education and pensions, rather than whether EM is nerdy or DC is an OE fat boy are likely to determine the election result. My present judgement is that a widespread disagreement with austerity policies, worsening unemployment figures and quiet EM policy development with TU support will continue to strengthen Labour’s poll figures up to the election, and see a landslide victory.

  17. YouGov have uploaded the tables – unfortunately I’m getting 502 errors while trying to access any of their pages but the front page. Doh.

    Guess it’s waiting until they fix it/AW reveals the figures before we know the leadership ratings.

  18. Maybe it’s just me then?
    Leader results have been tweeted –
    Miliband -27 (-4)
    Cameron -30 (-1)
    Clegg -55 (-1)

  19. John Pilgrim

    I really really hope you are right. An educated, concerned electorate most of whom understand and vote on the issues.

    Yes..!

    And yet so often I hear intelligent people say things like they would never vote for Gordon Brown cos of that thing he does with his mouth and Ed Milliband cos he’s a muppet or a geek. And yes, there are those who would never vote Tory whatever the policies are (me).

    The problem is also there is a widespread feeling that there is little relationship between what politicians say when they want your vote (the manifesto, for instance) and what they actually do when they’ve got your vote.

  20. ingedfringe

    I can’t open the tables either.

  21. Daily Mail/Survation on the Eurocrisis –

    Will the EU be better off without the Euro-
    Yes – 43%
    No – 32%

    Will the UK be better off?
    Yes – 39%
    No – 28%

    Who do you back on the Euro?
    Hollande – 32%
    Cameron – 20% (no national bonus?)
    Merkel – 16%

    Who do you blame for the Greek crisis?
    Banks – 50%
    Brussels – 20%
    Greek government – 11%
    Greek people – 4%
    Germany – 3%
    (Perhaps blaming the Greeks for their overspending, while Labour blame the banks, isn’t the best narrative for the government?)

    Who will leave the Euro?
    Greece – 63%
    Spain – 44%
    Portugal – 36%
    Ireland – 31%
    Italy – 25%

    Will the break-up of the Euro cause EU-wide riots?
    Yes – 16%
    No – 61%
    No question on whether there will be pockets of rioting in certain countries.

    Who did the most to keep the pound?
    Gordon Brown – 24%
    Margaret Thatcher – 21%
    Tony Blair – 16%
    John Major – 11%
    Interesting answers there, as the Tory narrative is always that Brown/Balls wanted us to ditch the pound (despite their opposition to ditching the pound, us not joining the euro, etc) – and I would have expected the Thatcher/Major figures to be a lot higher, perhaps a supplementary question would have boosted Thatcher/Major if the 28% DKs were prompted to guess.

  22. @ John Pilgrim

    “worsening unemployment figures”

    Unemployment is falling. Maybe that is “worsening” if you are an opposition party.

  23. The G-Word is reporting that Ed Milliband is seriously considering an In-Out EU referendum if Labour win in 2015 (at the request of shadow cabinet members).

    If he makes the promise, will it actually work? Given that an In-Out referendum (based on various criteria) has been offered by the three major parties?
    (Libs offered one without criteria for the 2009 EU elections.. with criteria for 2010 general election)

    Surely the only way to gain any votes from eurosceptics is to put forward a private members bill, for a referendum in late 2015 (November?) so Labour can gain from both Tories voting against it and potential votes from a promise that isn’t abandoned.

    Given the ‘millions vs millionaires’ narrative that Miliband wants to promote, denying a vote on the EU would be to seriously undermine that narrative.

  24. On the Question of Lab promising a referendum on EU…from the Guardian

    “A ComRes opinion poll for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror showed how Europe is emerging as an issue that could be pivotal at the next election. The poll showed that 26% of Tories now say they will consider voting for the anti-EU Ukip compared to 11% of Labour supporters and 14% of Liberal Democrats. It also showed the extent of anti-EU hostility Labour would need to overcome if a referendum were held now, with 46% of voters saying they would vote to leave the EU compared with 30% who would vote to stay in.”

    I think EM / Lab should promise a referendum and they it should be annoucned very sooon for various reasons. Leave it too late and there is the possibility it will be ‘too late’ to affect VI, and of course UKIP and Cons might agree some electoral pact based on an EU referendum.

  25. @ Tingedfringe

    Who do you back on the Euro?
    Hollande – 32%
    Cameron – 20% (no national bonus?)
    Merkel – 16%

    The irony is that the difference between Hollande and Merkel on the Euro Zone isn’t even a cigarette paper. Hollande wants to renegotiate the stability pact – tab on something about growth. I understand this may be just a redirection of structural development funds (so no gain in net terms)

    He still accepts the stability pact, which in my view one of the most erroneous and undemocratic aspects of the EU.

    I suspect that while some folk hope Hollande will lead a new left charge in Europe, in fact he will be a straw man who will compromise so much when challenged, his stance will one both Merkel and Sarkosy would accept with ease.

    This way, the issues in the Eurozone will remain unchanged.

  26. ROBERT C
    Given that the Tories are fiddling the figures in exactly the same way Labour did (and possibly prior to Labour?), just looking at the headline unemployment figure may not be such a great idea.

    However!
    Total hours worked is no longer languishing, like it was in mid 2011, which is always a good sign and average hours worked per employee is also fairly stable.

  27. “Who do you blame for the Greek crisis?”

    I’m surprised Gordon Brown wasn’t one of the options.

  28. Robert C

    Unemployment is falling. Maybe that is “worsening” if you are an opposition party.

    If you look deeper, the figures are still dire.

    1. The big increase is in part time jobs. Many taking PT jobs now want/need full time work in the long term.

    2. The number unemployed for 6 months or more are still rising. This bodes very badly for the future as long term unemployment really blights the life chances of a whole generation.

    The approach of sticks and more sticks taken by the Government over welfare will do nothing to change this.

  29. Interesting figures from ComRes –
    Generally speaking, do you consider yourself…
    Lab -40%
    Con – 33%
    Lib – 13%
    Very similar to VI.

    Which parties would you seriously consider voting for (rather than using their rather small subsamples, going for the full sample) –
    Lab – 46%
    Con – 37%
    Lib – 21%
    Green – 19%
    UKIP – 8%
    BNP – 6%
    Not much scope, at the moment [1] for increase from headline VI for Labour (+5), equal potential growth for Tories (+5), but potentially not [1] enough to unseat Labour.
    UKIP roughly at headline VI position [1] so not much room for growth at the moment [1].

    [1] Obviously as the Cons regain ground, the figure for Cons would go up and the opposite for Labour – but at this moment in time.
    Similar caveat for the rest.

  30. Errr..
    I may have made a big mistake with UKIP figures – Doh!
    Time to recheck the rest..
    Okay, the rest are still accurate..
    Doh.
    Okay, make that UKIP – 22% (+15).
    So actually, lots of room for growth (would gain mostly from Tories, unsurprisingly).

  31. @TINGED FRINGE
    `Surely the only way to gain any votes from eurosceptics is to put forward a private members bill, for a referendum in late 2015 (November?`

    @MIKE N
    `I think EM / Lab should promise a referendum and they it should be annoucned very sooon for various reasons`of course UKIP and Cons might agree some electoral pact based on an EU referendum`

    I think it is becoming clearer that Milliband will offer an In/Out referendum…Will his promise of a referendum carry more weight than Cameron`s?Possibly..After Cameron reneged on promises on the `cast iron` guarantee and NHS `top-down reorganisation`Milliband`s promises might carry more weight than the PM.

    I am not sure of the exact timing of the referendum but Milliband will make a good tactical decision.He has proved by his tactics of balancing both sides of Labour on the AV referendum and the Blair/Brown factions that he gets his right more often than not.He can`t afford slip-ups unlike Cameron as he has alienated the News International media and therefore he needs to be on top of his game pretty much till the election is over.

  32. Large degree of agreement between pollsters. Will have to wait for ICM and Populus to spoil the consistency.

    But at the moment seems we are:

    Lab 41-43
    Con 30-32

    So + 11/12% is pretty much the new norm. EM needs to get his skates on to make this count. Was a bit disappointed by a very low-key reshuffle.

  33. Robert C

    The Mail Online 16 May report is a very full review of the figures for unemployment, quoting the 0.2% drop in the past quarter., but also the NOS view that this is almost entirely made up of part-time jobs. It also quotes the TUC review which shows that the figure for men in part-time jobs seeking full-time employment has doubled in the past five years to over 600,000.
    The Director of the Institute of Employment Studies is quoted as commenting on the recent fall, as saying:
    ‘ Optimists might claim that this is the early stage of a real recovery, with entrepreneurial start-ups leading the way. Several factors suggest caution in interpreting these data, however.
    ‘The macro-economy continues to stagnate and employers remain very cautious in hiring, with vacancies at an historically low level and falling again this month. Further, the bulk of the public spending cuts are still to take effect.
    ‘All this suggests a more pessimistic interpretation of the latest data, which may simply reflect growing numbers of people taking small chunks of freelance or casual work because they are unable to find more secure employment.’
    I agree it would be sad if party protagonists misstated the economic trends to gain a debating point. I do see the employment figures as a key indicator of economic performance in relation to electoral prospects, mainly because (NickP) peoples’ views and votes will respond to where the pinch will be felt.

  34. Politically speaking, this austerity stuff has allowed Labour to become populist on the EU, a massive massive gift of an opportunity for them, IMO.

    I can’t imagine even Kinnock would screw this up.

  35. Best Case Scenarios [1] – derived from ‘would consider’ figures. [2] [3]
    Headline VI – Lab 40%, Con 30%, Lib 10%, UKIP 8%, Green 4%
    Labour – 47% (+7), Con 27% (-3), Lib 8% (-2), UKIP & Green nc
    Con – 37% (+7), Lab 38% (-2), Lib 8% (-2), UKIP 7% (-1), Green nc
    Lib – 20% (+10), Con 26% (-4), Lab 36% (-4), UKIP & Green nc
    UKIP – 23% (+15), Con 22% (-8), Lab 36% (-4), Lib 9% (-1), Green nc
    Green – 18%(+14), Con 28% (-2), Lab 32% (-8), Lib 8% (-2), UKIP – 8% (nc)

    [1]This figure will be different to the ones above, as many DK/Refused for headline VI figure (even when prompted) answered for who they would consider voting for – these figures are using only transfers for those who gave a VI answer.
    I also get a slightly different ‘starting’ VI figure to ComRes headline, so I’ve given that first – what I’m doing slightly wrong, I don’t know. :|
    [2] I must reiterate again – if the question were asked around the time of the veto bounce, I suspect that Con VI would have been much, much higher – so a lot of this is due to current popularity, rather than any reflection of 2015 GE probabilities.
    [3] So this is just for speculative amusement.

  36. CIARA
    ‘ I hear a lot of people on the left saying ‘at least we know the Conservatives are b””””s’ and it seems to me they prefer to let them in here than the Lib Dems who are regarded by them with real bitterness right now.’

    Good analysis of the west country situation as well in last night’s post,

    It is perveres behaviour, that I commented on a previous thread that people are so ignorant about FPTP that they are so self centred, they would prefer to cut off their nose to spite their political faces.

    I just watched two blackbirds fighting over one patch of grass when we provided them with a whole lawn by cutting it yesterday.

    See 1983 GE result; perhaps rightist people will do the same for the Tories with a vote for UKIP in some areas (probably Labour held seats in that case).

    Divide and rule..

  37. Apologies for typos. I think I need to clean my personal dictionary file.

  38. As an example of people overcoming the FPTP issue in one case, see the coming titanic battle in Henin-Beaumont between Melenchon (far left) and Le Pen (far right). The UMP are giving her a free ride and so she is expected to win the first round with Melenchon second. The PS candidate is standing, which demonstrates perhaps the stupidity I mentioned above.

    Nevertheless Melenchon is expected to get more votes than PS and win the second round 56 to 44.

    See the ‘sondage’ in Le Monde online.

    I wonder what would happen here with our system, only two rounds as in La France,

    Anyone like to extrapolate?

  39. Howard,
    Surely the AV polling gives the best answer, given that most seats would have been decided by Lab/Con/Lib voters?
    According to C4, the 2010 results would have been Lab -10, Con -23, Lib +32 (giving Lab/Lib a majority) and in 2011 would have been Lab -13, Con nc, Lib +13.

    So a change to two-round would have potentially only made that much difference?

    But it is a difficult one, as I’m not sure polling has been done as a pairwise comparison – which is the only way you could really measure a two-round system properly (because you’d derive the FPTP figures normally and then use the pair-wise polling for the run-off).

    And although I’d love to see pairwise comparison polling done, I’m not sure there’s any need for it so it’s unlikely that it will be done.

  40. That said, you would probably also have to split the polling for pairwise comparisons down based on the first preference divisions.
    So you’d have to run separate polls in Lab/Con, Lab/Lib, Lib/Con, etc marginals to get a more accurate figure.

  41. Now that UKIP are gaining ground,there`s talk of a pact between Conservatives and UKIP on the issue of referendum to unite the right wing vote…Raises the question of why the two supposedly centre-left parties could never come together in a pact when they were out of power for a long time since 1979?
    Also whether Labour should offer the Greens a pact at present in return for their 2-3%voteshare?

  42. http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/x5f31cwdq9/YG-Archives-Pol-ST-results-18-200512.pdf

    Interesting that VI of Men and Women is so different. Labour only having 1% lead over Tories amongst Men. With Women Labour have a 21% lead.

    Is this Women rejecting government policies or have they gone off Cameron, as well. Men may not have a problem with Cameron being aggressive at PMQ’s, but Women don’t tend to like it.

  43. The Observer Editorial is worth a read.

    Form the last para:

    “The Lib Dems are threatened with extinction as a national party, proper reward for complicity in such epic mistakes. The Tories should be no less concerned. Their capacity to exist outside the gilded constituencies of London and the south-east is under threat. In democracies, the neglected can hit back and hit back they will.”

  44. Ciara
    How do you know the blackbirds weren’t making love, and excited at the prospect of a new plot for their kids?

  45. Howard, Sorry – your blackbirds and lawn. (I am watching TMS as a serious passtime, while relaxing with yougov. 34 C in the shade here in Vientiane )

  46. Lib-Dems now below UKIP in a number of polls! Can anything be done to save them? We look at potential ways in which the LIb-Dems could prevent themselves from self-destructing!
    Follow the link: http://www.allthatsleft.co.uk/2012/05/can-anything-save-the-lib-dems/

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