ComRes have a new poll tomorrow for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror. Topline voting intention figures with changes from the last online ComRes poll before the local elections are CON 32%(-2), LAB 41%(+2), LDEM 11%(+1), UKIP 7%(-2), Others 9%.

There was also a new Opinium poll out yesterday, which had topline figures of CON 30%(-2), LAB 41%(+2), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 10%(nc), Others 10% (changes are from their last poll just before the locals).

Both companies show a shift from the Conservatives to Labour since the local elections, something we’ve also seen in YouGov’s daily polling and MORI’s recent poll. The local elections have also given Ed Miliband a boost – Opinium and ComRes both had leader approval figures which, like YouGov and MORI’s figures, show boosts for the Labour leader. Opinium have Miliband’s approval rating up to minus 17 (from minus 26 before the local elections) and ComRes have the proportion of people thinking Miliband is turning out to be a good Labour leader up 8 points to 26%.


25 Responses to “New ComRes and Opinium polls”

  1. Time to update the UKPR polling average?

  2. Ed Millis ratings now starting to follow Labours upwards…..this really is serious for the coalition.

  3. ComRes reportedly asking which ‘other’ parties voters would ‘seriously consider’ voting for.
    ——————————
    Have you heard/ read anything about this yet, Anthony?
    8-)

  4. Impact of “Omnishambles” (copyright Malcolm Tucker ep1 s3) continuing unabated.

    COME ON CHELSEA !

  5. Both show Con down two, Lab up two and LD up one. Any chance YouGov will say the same?

  6. Amber – yep, they asked people a tick all that apply question for other parties they might seriously consider. The Sunday Indy seems to have rampantly over-egged it on their frontpage (sigh).

    Basically, 49% of both Labour and Tory voters said they’d consider voting for a different party at the general election, as did 73% of Lib Dem voters.

    Biggest alternative party for Conservative voters was UKIP (26%), followed by the Lib Dems (14%) and Labour (8%).

    For Labour voters it was 19% Green, 11% UKIP, 11% Lib Dem, 5% Con.

    For Lib Dem voters it was Green 28%, Con 27%, Lab 21%, UKIP 14%.

    For current UKIP voters it was Con 22%, BNP 13%, Green 6%

    For people currently saying Don’t know, it was Labour 23%, Con 18%, LD 17%

  7. Colin Green – YouGov already has! When comparing trends between pollsters, remember too look at the time period since their last poll.

    These are Opinium and ComRes’s first polls since the local elections. YouGov’s polls are already showing that sort of shift since their pre-local election polls.

  8. Conservatives edging ever closer to 30% and possibly worse, it seems that when a government goes that low it’s probably doomed to defeat at the next GE. The LD’s have been in that unhappy position for some time now.

  9. The wikipedia page for the 2011 locals shows Con as first party on 35%, with Labour (857 gains) in second on 37%. The 2012 page shows Lab as first party (823 gains) on 38% with Con on 31%. That kind of reflects the reporting, Con did well in 2011, and Lab did not (because of Hollyrood)… also the media were very reluctant to report Labour polling leads in 2011 (Martha Kierney to Ed Balls: “No one believes you! You’re polling lower than at the election!”).

    All that has changed, more people are aware that Labour is a viable alternative again. Earlier in the week The Times was urging goverment to come up with a stimulus plan (plan b) before it is too late – “people are beginning to suspect that Ed Balls has been right all along.”

    Thanks shevii/Richard for your response (previous thread).

    @Howard – Correct. Albert was a Tory, however, “the portrait he keeps of his father is in fact of William Gladstone.”
    “Harold is a Labour supporter” according to wikipedia, which also includes this useful addition to rhyming slang: “if you feels like a d’Oyly Carte (fart), you goes outside”.

  10. What a change in two months ! People were writing off Ed Miliband, saying he was not a credible PM. Now when polled, people appear to have changed their minds and he has leapfrogged Cameron.

    Perhaps people gave Cameron and the Tories the benefit of the doubt, as they were fed up of Labour after 13 years. But now 2 years into a Tory led coalition, people just don’t like the performance of the government. I don’t think it is necessarily the policies, but the way that they have acted. We have seen the government implementing changes, that they were against before the election. e.g no top down reorganisation of the NHS and no cutting of frontline Police numbers.

    The coalition have ended up in the worst possible position. 80% of the cuts that they are planning to make, are still to come and people don’t like what they have done already.

    My prediction for tonights YG

    Labour 42%
    Tories 30%
    UKIP 10%
    LD 8%

  11. KeithP – “Conservatives edging ever closer to 30% and possibly worse, it seems that when a government goes that low it’s probably doomed to defeat at the next GE.”

    That’ll be except for 1979-1983. And 1983-1987. And 1987-1992…

    I don’t like such rules of thumb anyway (there simply aren’t enough data points (i.e. general elections) in comparable times, so anyone can find some data that fits and make one up – that’s the lesson that Roger Mortimore’s “Sweet FA” model is supposed to tell!) but please people – at least check that they aren’t patently untrue!

  12. R Huckle –

    “People were writing off Ed Miliband, saying he was not a credible PM. Now when polled, people appear to have changed their minds and he has leapfrogged Cameron.”

    Erm… not on the measure of being PM. He is increasingly seen as doing well and his approval ratings are up… but Cameron still has a substantial lead on being the best Prime Minister. Obviously if trends continue that may not be the case forever, but he’s not there yet.

  13. @ Anthony,

    Thank you :-)

    I am glad to have your view before we all read the Indy, discuss its article to death & then find its been over-egged (which is one of my favourite expression, it always makes me smile).

  14. Amber – ultimately the issue is that “seriously consider” is a much lower bar than it sounds. People seriously consider all sorts of things, it doesn’t mean they’ll do them.

    For example, back in 2006 there were a couple of polls showing that 20% or so of people would seriously consider voting BNP. Did they? Did they hell!

    It’s an interesting poll in terms of the patterns of swing voting, but don’t read TOO much into it (it would also be worth comparing it to the same question asked any time over the last five years, to put into context the UKIP answer. UKIP are the party ideologically closest to the Conservatives, it is natural that they should score highly on the question)

  15. Miliband is a good labour leader. By having no policies he’s 10-14% ahead in the polls.

    [Snip – AW]

  16. Here, for example, back in 2004 but asked in a different way.

    12% of people said they would “definitely” consider voting UKIP at the next election, another 25% said they would possibly consider it. Sadly it was before the days of nice cross-tabs, but it’s fair bet it was tilted towards the Conservatives.

    http://cdn.yougov.com/today_uk_import/YG-Archives-pol-mos-BlairsFuture-041004.pdf

  17. The best prime minister question is fubar! How can you judge who’s the best prime minster against someone who isn’t? Meaningless question! Correct me if I’m wrong but Cameron for all his huge leads over brown over numerous leadership characteristics, the lead over best prime minister was very small! You can’t judge someone as prime minister until they’re in the job!

  18. For example, back in 2006 there were a couple of polls showing that 20% or so of people would seriously consider voting BNP. Did they? Did they hell!
    ———————
    Gosh, yes – I remember the furore around that polling. There were quite a number of articles about the rise of facism in the UK.

    I think it may even have been a significant factor in the decision to go to court against the BNP.

    And, in the end, I think about 2% voted BNP.
    8-)

  19. @Anthony Wells

    “YouGov’s polls are already showing that sort of shift since their pre-local election polls.”

    Thanks! Must be true then.

    “When comparing trends between pollsters, remember too look at the time period since their last poll.”

    Too true.

  20. @Amber Star @AW

    I disagree with you on the “seriously consider” question – you can’t claim it’s invalid because fewer people vote that way in the end.

    It is an indicator of the potential market that a party has. The fact that they are unable to capitalise on it is hardly surprising.

  21. nbeale: “of course he’s make a dreadful pm”

    Ah yes, “of course” he would. The predictive power of prejudice strikes once again – jolly well done mate.

  22. @ The Sheep

    UKIP have some appeal to about 25% of the “potential market”. As Anthony said, BNP had some appeal to 20% of the 2006 “potential market”.Their actual conversion rate was 1/10th of the potential so, I agree with Anthony, it’s nothing to get excited about.

    UKIP may do well in the European elections – they always seem keen to represent the UK in a parliament which they aver should not exist.

    I would not bet on them doing much better in the next UK GE than they did in 2010, unless the Tories press ahead with the boundary changes & Tories who lose their seat – or believe they have been unfairly treated during the selection process – join UKIP. Without a dramatic change, such as I have described, UKIP simply do not have credible candidates or the organisation needed to convert their “potential market” into ‘paying customers’.
    8-)

  23. New thread.

  24. TheSheep – I mean it’s over-egged in the Indy. It isn’t some amazing new development, some great Tory crisis.

    I suspect it is pretty par for the course.

  25. How long before the tories are scoring in the twenties?