Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 45%, LDEM 9%, Others 15% (including UKIP on 8%).

So, a second YouGov Labour lead of fourteen points. This is at the top end of the current range (in the last week we’ve also had Labour leads of 10 and 11 points, suggesting an underlying average of 12 or 13 points), but further confirms the higher leads that YouGov have been showing since the local elections.

The poll also has YouGov’s fortnightly best Prime Minister question. In the last questions on whether people thought the leaders were doing well or badly at their roles Ed Miliband received a less negative rating than David Cameron for the first time since last July. David Cameron however still leads as best Prime Minister by 32% to Miliband’s 24% – although that twenty-four is Miliband’s highest since last August, so he is improving.


373 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 31, LAB 45, LDEM 9”

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  1. Big D.

    That was a terrifying prediction. Then I realised that Chote had made it and a feeling of serene calmness washed over me.

  2. @ Leftylampton

    Well I for one am very terrified. Chote is a very well respected economist so his views carry weight with me. I’ve given up reading the comments on the Guardian website. People claiming that Chote is a wide eye europhile socialist are very wide of the mark given that he was appointed head of the OBR by Osborne.

  3. Mohammed Shafiq on the attitude if some Pakistani men: “Asian girls are not available to them and so they look to Western girls. They think they’re easy. They see them as tarts who are there to be used.”

    A correspondent in this very place earlier: “The attitude of SOME Muslim men towards white women is no secret, hasn’t been for donkey’s years. Frankly, the behaviour of SOME western women, demolishes any surprise about the matter IMPO.”

    Do we conclude that the attitude that some white women are bringing upon themselves crosses the cultural divide

  4. @ RHuckle

    Do the Daily Mail want Cameron to go ?

    Every day they seem to have a dig at him
    _____

    He is running out of friends, that is clear.

    BUT he has 2 years fix it and i think he will, he is not in this for the headline grabbing fix he is in for the long term.

  5. Jim

    Hi, Anthony are you putting last night’s poll up? I’m a Ukipper so a little paranoid about them not being put up on the first time UKIP is ahead of the LD by 2 points

    Anthony doesn’t put up a thread for every YouGov, only every other one or so. He nearly always put up one for the Sunday Times poll headline figures at 10pm on Saturday evening and then usually a more detailed analysis on the extra questions some time on Sunday (unless he’s too busy or the extra questions are really dull. but for the four (less Bank holidays) polls in the week he plays it by ear.

    He usually puts up a fresh thread for non-YouGov polls as they are only monthly or bi-monthly, but despite that they tend to cluster like buses on the Oxford Road, so one thread may end up covering two or three of these plus a YouGov if it’s released around the same time.

    Anyway it’s not illegal to discuss polls before our Dear Leader has had his say. The tables for the YouGov polls appear on their polling archive:

    http://yougov.co.uk/publicopinion/archive/

    The daily polls are usually put on here automatically at 10pm on the day they finish (the data is usually collected from 6pm till 4pm the following afternoon, though most respondents reply in the evening. The exception is Sunday when they don’t appear till 7am on Sunday morning.

    On the archive the daily polls usually have a title starting “Update” the date and a description (eg “Voting intention + Party Image”). If you click on this title you’ll get a pdf with all the information you desire.

    Also Anthony usually only blogs about polls which have a voting intention component, but all sorts of things appear in the archive on a variety of subjects some also political. If you can’t find what you want immediately, you can use the page numbers at the bottom or the filters at the side to navigate.

  6. @ Rob S

    “Oh: anyone who finds themselves able to compare/ equate rape, indecent assault and paedophilic grooming by gangs of abusers in northern and midlands England to European sex tourism in SEA (no matter how distasteful we find that) where prostitutes choose to make financial deals for sex with foreign tourists *really* needs to give themselves a very long hard look in the mirror.”

    Given that many of these prostitutes are involved in the sex tourism trade as a result of paedophillic grooming, or because they were sold or coerced into it you may need to revise your use of the word ‘choose’…

  7. @Roger Mexico, thank you so much for all the information.

    I didn’t know every YouGov wasn’t put on, I usually only look at the main post here to see if there is a poll then go to the YouGov if it looks as though the details will be interesting. I am glad to know to check YouGov even if there isn’t a posting here, I dare say I must have missed a few polls by not knowing this.

    Thanks again!

  8. Indecision, drift, irrelevance, and the looming capacity for disaster.

    We desperately need a new thread here on UKPR.

  9. @ Billy

    Some are indeed forced and that needs to be stopped but sadly it will not be in our life time.

    Some choose that way of life and i think thats ROB S means in his posts.

  10. @Roly

    Coming from someone who is not party political, I would not call Warsi a bigot. However, I would says she comes across as fairly intensely stupid, in a robotic, can’t think beyond what she’s been told to say, sense. I don’t think she wins the party any votes, but perhaps she consolidates support within the party,,,? :D

  11. @Billy

    “Given that many of these prostitutes are involved in the sex tourism trade as a result of paedophillic grooming, or because they were sold or coerced into it you may need to revise your use of the word ‘choose’…”

    Quite so and very well said sir. By the way, I had a long hard look in the mirror and quite liked what I saw in a faintly disturbing, Narcissus sort of way! lol

    @Lefty L
    “…. And we had John Major making the beast with two backs and getting back to basics with the honourable member for Derbyshire South immediately after telling the country that we needed to get back to basic family values.”

    This lurid description passed my laugh out loud test with flying colours!

    Last few observations on the Rochdale sex grooming case case from me. Firstly I give you the words of the senior Police Officer in charge of the criminal investigation, assistant chief constable Steve Heywood, of Greater Manchester Police He said this:

    “It is not a racial issue,” he said. “This is about adults preying on vulnerable young children.

    “It just happens that in this particular area and time the demographics were that these were Asian men.” He went on to say that his force was investigating similar cases involving gangs of white men.

    Secondly, I pose this question. Why do we think the BNP is so interested in this case and what political benefits do we think they are hoping to gain?

  12. @ GWUK

    Warsi is not a bigot

    But the stupid bit i cannot defend her on

  13. @ Crossbat11

    “Secondly, I pose this question. Why do we think the BNP is so interested in this case and what political benefits do we think they are hoping to gain?”

    Because racists will look for any incidents that they can take advantage of in order to further their own racist positions and dogma.

  14. Socal et al, indeed. In Denmark, the polls for the DPP go up a point or two every time the talking point in the press is to do with honour killings or other violent cases involving muslims.
    i suspect this is exactly why there’s such a distaste for PR in this country, since it will lead to more simplified, populist views.
    for this reason alone, it is nice to see Warsi speaking up (although the best voice of reason here has been Chris Lane 1945 – wise words!).
    Despite this PR->populism, I am all for PR (since I am fringe leftie myself)

  15. @ Blue Bob (and Charles Stuart if you’re around)

    From the Only in Canada files:

    http://news.yahoo.com/nude-canadian-pm-gets-mixed-response-215328633.html

    I wonder what would happen and what the public response would be if an artist did this for Cameron or Clegg.

  16. @ CYT

    “Socal et al, indeed. In Denmark, the polls for the DPP go up a point or two every time the talking point in the press is to do with honour killings or other violent cases involving muslims.
    i suspect this is exactly why there’s such a distaste for PR in this country, since it will lead to more simplified, populist views.
    for this reason alone, it is nice to see Warsi speaking up (although the best voice of reason here has been Chris Lane 1945 – wise words!).
    Despite this PR->populism, I am all for PR (since I am fringe leftie myself)”

    I don’t like PR because I believe that it ultimately takes power away from the voters and instead empowers political parties and vested political interest groups. It also takes away from the ability of individuals to get elected to office who aren’t from the inner circles and upper eschelons of the party and who aren’t properly connected. It also allows for endless political shenanigans where smaller parties can manipulate laws against the will of the voting majority and keep unpopular governments in power (see, e.g., Israel). It also takes away the constituency aspects of the job. Government becomes less representative. Plus it’s much better to have elections decided on election day (and not months, or in the case of Belgium years, after the vote takes place). Finally, PR muddies the waters for political responsibility and accountability. We may not like it (especially when we’re in opposition) but at the end of the day, someone has to be in charge, someone has to make decisions, someone has to be responsible, someone has to be accountable. PR takes that away by promoting coalition governments where it’s not really clear who’s in charge or who should be held responsible for mistakes by the government.

    Anyway, people will often take tragic events and manipulate them in order to support their racist propoganda. I’m not surprised by what you tell me about right wing hate groups in Denmark. What I find interesting is how many of the people who rant and rave about the evils of Muslims and Islam (going off against Shariah law) usually want to implement very similar types of laws themselves (they just want the laws to be “Christian” instead).

  17. SoCal,
    A) A system of elected presidents (with an elected legislature) would allow PR while still having an accountable executive government – the legislature may be opposed to the government and the government may have to compromise with the legislature, but how is that any different to 2010-2012 for Obama or 1996-2000 for Clinton?
    Isn’t that the whole point of separation of powers, so that the executive is accountable to the legislature – as opposed to what we have in the UK, where the legislature (through whipping, etc) doesn’t often hold the executive accountable.

    B) The problem of ‘inner circles’ is already a major problem in the UK, where candidates are ‘parachuted’ in to safe seats and the executive (since it’s a prime ministerial system) can effectively ignore his backbenchers.

    C) The factions within various parties are *already* like parties within a coalition – where a minority faction can cause political headaches for the majority faction, by withdrawing support. This can lead to ‘pandering’ to the minority faction – only this is kept less transparent than with PR. Less transparency means less accountability.

    D) There are many mixed systems of PR which have some constituency seats and the rest elected by top-up, which allows for the ‘constituency link’ while still having a legislature which truly represents the whole nation (not just two parties that combined represent a minority of national ideology).

    E) As we’ve seen with Britain, FPTP does not necessarily lead to a majority government, especially if the nation is regionally politically divided [1] or regional groups hold sway over certain regions [1] (see SNP, PYC in the UK).

    F) You can resolve the ‘takes forever to form a government’ by requiring pre-election coalitions – another way to look at it, to be more friendly to your argument [2], would be that the nation elects a party and then the factions within that party are elected by PR.
    Replace ‘party’ with ‘coalition’ and ‘factions’ with ‘parties’ and you have exactly the same thing.

    [1] See Canada 2004-2011. The irony of the 2011 election is that the Conservatives gained only 1.97% more of the vote but gained 7.3% of the seats.
    New Democratic, who gained 12.45% of the vote gained only 8.4% of the seats.
    ND + Liberal (Liberal voters switched largely to ND), gained 49.27% of the vote, compared to Conservatives who managed 39.62%. Democratic!
    [2] That we elect, under FPTP, a legislature so that we can elect a government. Ignoring that an executive government can be elected separately to the legislature – see point A, your own nation, London, France, etc

  18. @ BlueBob

    “Some choose that way of life and i think thats ROB S means in his posts.”

    I’m sure that some do choose. I was, however, pointing out his oversimplification of the issue which seemed to suggest that all of them choose.

    @ Crossbat11

    “By the way, I had a long hard look in the mirror and quite liked what I saw in a faintly disturbing, Narcissus sort of way! lol”

    There’s no need to send lots of love to yourself as well, surely? ;)

  19. On to the ‘Best Government’ question –

    Latest Best for Britain, with DKs removed –
    Lab Maj – 41.5
    Lib/Lab – 13.4
    Con Maj – 35.4
    Lib/Con – 9.8
    Total Lab – 54.9
    Total Con – 45.2
    Total Lib – 23.2
    So compared to VI, Lab is down 3.5, Con up 4.4.
    But you have to remember the UKIP voters would much prefer a Con government, out of all those options.

    So let’s go pre-budget –
    Headline VI-
    Con 36 (-5), Lab 41 (+4), Lab Lead = 5
    Lab Maj – 35 (+6.5)
    Lib/Lab – 16.3 (-2.9)
    Con Maj – 37.5 (-2.1)
    Lib/Con – 11.3 (-1.5)
    Total Lab – 51.3 (+3.6)
    Total Con – 48.8 (-3.6)
    Total Lib – 27.6 (-4.4)
    VS VI – Lab is down 6, Con is up 1.5.

    So if we take the original proposition, that Lab Majority figures showed that Lab VI was weak – the gap between Lab VI and Lab Majority has shrunk and support for a Lab Majority has grown faster than it’s VI.
    Surely that means it’s actually firmer since the budget?

    How about since the veto bounce?
    I placed the height of Tory popularity as around Jan 26th (as the 5 point lead was in the middle of that) –
    The closest we have was Jan 25th.

    Con 38 (-7), Lab 40 (+5), Lab Lead = 2
    Lab Maj – 31.6 (+9.9)
    Lib/Lab – 16.5 (-3.1)
    Con Maj – 38 (-2.6)
    Lib/Con – 13.9 (-4.1)
    Total Lab – 48.1 (+6.8)
    Total Con – 51.9 (-6.7) [1]
    Total Lib – 30.4 (-7.2)
    VS VI – Lab down 9.3, Con is no different.
    Lab VI has grown by 5 over that period, but support for a Labour majority almost double that.
    Again – if we take the ‘Labour Majority’ as the ‘true Labour’ figure and anything else is just ‘weak VI figures’, then Lab VI is surely now much more secure than those two points (the gap closing from 9.3, down to 6, down to 3.5)?

    I have a different theory – the Lab Majority figure will always be weaker than Lab VI (although as Lab VI increases, it’ll be more secure) due to many Labour voters preferring a Lab-Lib coalition (but still not voting Lab) and UKIP voters, who may prefer a Con government out of those options, but who vote UKIP, will always boost the Con Majority figure higher than VI.

    [1] Disparity between the 6.7 and 6.8 is obviously due to rounding.

  20. “due to many Labour voters preferring a Lab-Lib coalition (but still not voting Lab)”
    Should read (but still not voting Lib)

  21. Returning to R Chote and OBR…

    I agree that the OBR has been woeful, and at times seems no more than a rubberstamp for GO to apply as he chooses.

    But on a key point of the Budget (ie the reduction in the additional rate of income tax) RC has challenged the assumptions/argument used by GO to justify the reduction.

  22. GWUK

    @can’t think beyond what she’s been told to say”

    Something in that on this particular issue it seems.

    Her father-an enlightened muslim who supported his daughters’ career ambitions-insisted that she speak out.

    I agree very much with RS on this issue-particularly on Cryer & Varsi. The Police & Care agencies have much to answer for.

  23. @SocalLiberal

    “Because racists will look for any incidents that they can take advantage of in order to further their own racist positions and dogma.”

    Sadly, I think there’s a great deal of truth in what you say.

    By the way, mainly due to the US/UK time differences and the times and days of the week that I tend to lurk and contribute on here, I don’t often interchange posts with you, but rest assured that still I read and greatly enjoy your many contributions. I’m very much looking forward to your observations on the forthcoming Obama v Romney presidential race as it unfolds between now and November. It’s very early days, I know, but how are you calling it at the moment and what’s the general consensus in the US media?

    @Billy

    “There’s no need to send lots of love to yourself as well, surely?”

    Part of my Narcissus complex, I’m afraid! As many of the people who have read my many posts over the years will know, I fell in love with myself a long time ago. I suspect it’s an affair that will endure all my life as well!!

  24. Colin
    “Her father-an enlightened muslim who supported his daughters’ career ambitions-insisted that she speak out.”

    Sooo…a leading politician who said what her father told her to say. Is this a good or bad thing?

  25. “I suspect it’s an affair that will endure all my life as well!!”

    ‘Til death do you part.

  26. Err… just noticed an error in my best gov post –
    40 minus 31.6 is actually 8.4, not 9.3.. how I made that mistake, I don’t know?
    Doh!

    So the gap shrinks from 8.4 to 6 to 3.5.

  27. @Mike N

    “Sooo…a leading politician who said what her father told her to say. Is this a good or bad thing?”

    Good job Blair didn’t go down that route because his Dad was a Tory!

    Mind you, thinking about it, maybe he did!!

  28. @SOCAL

    FYI, Salmond is visitng California next month.

    h ttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-18125676

    h ttp://www.commonwealthclub.org/events/2012-06-19/alex-salmond-first-minister-scotland

  29. Crossbat

    lol

  30. MIKEN

    Don’t be silly.

    The Times reports that her father urged her to “show leadership” as a muslim with a public profile.

    Warsi’s father , who she describes as ” an amazing feminist” arrived in Britain with a couple of quid & began working in the rag trade to support his five daughters.

    “He urged them to embrace the best of Pakistani heritage & British culture ”

    I am sure that Ann Cryer would wholeheartedly support Warsi given her own campaign against against forced marriages, honour killings and calling on immigrants to learn to speak English before entering the country.

    But then, she & Warsi see the priorities as the welfare of women, rather than petty partisan sniping-unlike your goodself.

  31. @Colin

    ” petty partisan sniping……”

    Behaviour, of course, beneath the likes of you and I and, it must be said on past evidence, Baroness Warsi too.

    Can I also presume that the word “enlightened” applies to people who say things that I like to hear and “unenlightened” defines people who say things that don’t apply to my particular view of the world?

  32. @”Til death do you part.”

    Actually-in respect of Narcissus, that should be “till death do you join”

    Narcissus was captivated by his own reflection. Not realising that it was but an image & transitory, he could not leave , and died by the poolside.

    My initial reaction to Crossbat’s admission of narcissism was that he was joking.

    But having refreshed my memory of Ovid’s tale, I’m not so sure.

    I think the modern, more prosaic rendering would be “so far up his own backside, he has lost sight of reality”.

    ………so perhaps Crossbat should be taken at his word?

    :-) :-) :-)

  33. CROSSBAT
    @”Can I also presume that the word “enlightened” applies to people who say things that I like to hear and “unenlightened” defines people who say things that don’t apply to my particular view of the world?”

    Presume what you like sunshine.

    But until you say why you think Warsi’s father , and her rendering of his view,-and Ann Cryer-are wrong it’s just more vacuous hot air.

  34. ***** NEW POLL ALERT*********

    Opinium

    Lab 41%
    Tories 30%
    UKIP 10%
    LD 9%

    Ed Miliband -17%
    D Cameron -27%
    N Clegg -46%

    http://politicalbetting.com/

  35. Well, I’ve sat on my hands so far on the ‘Warsi – Visionary or Bigot?’ debate, but I think I’ll have my say now.

    I don’t like Warsi’s politics or style, I don’t rate her as a politician, and my personal view is that she been promoted beyond her abilities as the Tories have so few ethnic origin people of calibre that when they want to make a comment on their image via more varied appointments, the cupboard is unsurprisingly bare.

    That said, I agree with her comments on the Rochdale case, and I side with @Colin and @rob Sheffield on the exchanges above. I do that, as an avowed left winger and former active member of the ANL in my London days.

    At that time we were up against the National Front. Compared to the NF, the BNP are a model of restrained debate and decency. (Believe me – the NF’s desire to use violence, particularly against white’s trying to stand up for ethnic groups, makes campaigning against the BNP look like a complete picnic.)

    So that’s my background. I still believe everything I believed in back then. I also believe there are deep problems, which have cultural overtones, within a number of ethnic groups within the UK. This doesn’t mean ‘all’ members of those ethnic groups, nor does it mean there aren’t similar issues within white cultural groups, nor does it make it racist to say these things.

    These problems have not been adequately dealt with because society as a whole has been frightened to challenge unacceptable issues within ethnic communities. It very much looks like the Rochdale grooming case falls into this category, but you could equally add Romanian gypsy child slavery, Middle Eastern domestic servitude, West African withcraft and it’s effect on children, attitudes towards homosexuality among sections of the Afro Carribean populace and attitudes to rights of women in some Muslim communities.

    Anne Cryer was spot on, and it isn’t attacking these cultures to say such things – it’s helping the oppressed individuals within these communities towards a better life. It’s what we should be doing in this country.

    Someone asked if it isn’t racist, how come the BNP are attracted to these cases? It’s because we don’t deal with them. You’ll always get flies on sh*t. We’ve got to clean up the sh*t, and not let the flies feed on it.

  36. Colin
    “…rather than petty partisan sniping-unlike your goodself.”

    Oooh, but I wasn’t being partisan at all. It is a genuine question whether a politician being told what to say (and I don’t mean verbatim) by your parents is a good or bad thing.

    If Warsi was undecided whether to say anything but her father encouraged her to do so, then I think that was good – probably.

    But you can also recognise that a politician’s father could well exert unhelpful influence – even if the intention was good.

  37. Er, “your parents” shoudl read “their parents”.

  38. @ Alec

    I have to disagree with you on your comparison of NF and BNP. Always found the BNP to be far more violent and thought that was the reason for the split in the first place. Remember the violence that followed on the night Derek Beackon was elected? I too was an anti racist activist back in the 90’s and considered that there was very little threat to personal safety campaigning against the NF but extreme caution was needed in any street protest against the BNP.

    Having raised their profile among voters the BNP did try to present themselves as a legitimate political party and did indeed attract activists, voters and councillors that had no interest in the violent side of the party but I think this was tactical rather than the leadership changing their spots.

  39. @Shevi – greatest respect for your activism, but the NF was pretty useless in the 1990’s – I’m referring to the late 70’s when they were at their peak. Their march in Lewisham in 78 or 79 saw hundred of police injured, and a few years earlier (slightly before my time) another of their marches saw a fatality.

    More insidious was their use of violence away from the big set piece events, against individuals. Very nasty indeed.

  40. @ Alec- fair point.

    The 1970’s were a bit before my time (still at school) so I guess the comparison you are making is valid although I stil lmaintain the violent ones went with BNP when they split from the NF. I wonder if this is generational- a lot of the violence now seems to come from drug/gang culture whereas in earlier times it was maybe more ‘political’ or cultural (football- mods v rockers etc) . Whenever I see bits of trouble at football (non league) it always seems to be the older generation living their past glories.

    I do find it a little odd how badly the BNP have done electorally recently. Not sure if this is just to do with the big parties (mainly Labour) putting campaigning work into areas to win the seats back or whether it reflects disillusionment with the councillors elected or maybe a return to the Labour fold (I have always seen BNP as taking votes off Labour rather than Tories- the ‘woking class racist’) given they are not in government.

  41. @R Huckle,
    Surely changes are also important here?
    Lab 41 +2, Con 30 -2, UKIP 10 (nc), LD 9 (+1)
    Ed -17 +9, Dave -27 -5, Nick -46 (-3)

    I can’t find the dates of fieldwork, but if we have a repeat of this movement with YouGov, Miliband should have extended the gap by a fair margin.

    The PB link also suggests that ICM and Populus will be out this weekend, anybody have any idea when?

  42. @Richard – ” ‘woking class racist’ ” – this really conjurs up images in my mind of those posh people on John Redwood’s patch!

    I don’t think it’s any real surprise that the BNP have imploded electorally. It’s an established pattern on the far right, as essentially their message is based on fear, ignorance, and base racism.

    While this isn’t to say that they can still highlight valid issues (and indeed, thrive in the conditions when the political classes have neglected certain parts of society) they know that their views are an antithesis to actually achieving power, so they need to dispense with much of the nasty image if they wish to participate in the political arena.

    This immediately creates great internal tensions, endless splits and squabbles, and eventual decline. Where they do get electoral representation, their record is broadly awful, so even if they make a breakthrough they invariably get pushed back in due course.

    We’ll see another round of the far right in due course, and when we do, I sincerely hope there are plenty of young foot soldiers like we once were to come out and stand against them.

  43. @ Tinged

    Thank you for all the number crunching. Labour as best government compared to VI is not really so far adrift.

    It makes sense to me that Tory is swelled a bit by UKIP’ers because there’s no mention of them. That said, presumably most UKIP’ers would a Tory/ UKIP coalition where UKIP would get what it wanted on Europe.

    I can easily understand why some LibDems who currently vote Labour would like a LabDem coalition. A bit of ongoing pressure regarding civil liberties would be good for a Labour government. IMO, that pressure need not come from a coalition but I can understand why some LDs think that’s the best way to do it.

    Electoral reform may also be an issue that transferring LDs would like to keep on the agenda (pace your own preference for PR) & it likely would be more of a priority in a LabDem coalition than in a Labour government.
    8-)

  44. @Alec

    I don’t disagree with some of what you say, although I find the concept of degrees of far right extremism somewhat arcane, but the debate we’ve been having about the recent Rochdale case does make me worry a little about how much we all rely on received wisdom to form our views. Humankind, the one thing we all have in common, has many virtues and vices that cut across cultures and ethnicities and my default position is always to be extremely sceptical about attempts to ascribe behaviour patterns to a certain ethnic group or culture. The scope for generalisation, and then the pandering to prejudice, is enormous and while I don’t argue that there are cultural norms that can determine a certain pattern of behaviour that is common, maybe even unique, to that cultural group, there is far too much lazy categorisation that goes on that feeds prejudice. Going back to the Rochdale case and, by the way, I’m no more duty bound to accept Cryer’s and Warsi’s observations than I am the Assistant Deputy Constable’s, let me float a speculative scenario to make my point. How would the population of this country react if Abu Hamzha observed that all the paedophile rings unearthed in recent times were made up of white English males (and some females) and he then went on to conclude from this that there was an endemic problem with paedophilia specific to the white community. He’d be wrong, as I think Warsi and Cryer are, because I don’t believe cultural proclivities for certain forms of sexual deviancy exist, but I’m damned sure, sadly, that there are a lot of human beings, of all races and cultures, capable of appalling sexual behaviour. Maybe we should blame Original Sin and, now I’ve opened up that possibility, I await Chris Lane 1945’s contribution with interest!

    Another thought, and Anthony might well be able to help here. I wonder what the demographic make-up is of the readership and, more importantly, the regular contributors to UKPR? Let me declare my hand. I’m a 56 year old white, university educated, English male with a well paid job in the manufacturing industry. I get the distinct impression that I might be fairly typical of the demographic on here. Very few females, nobody that I can discern from an ethnic minority and lots of professionals and academics. I get a sense that we represent a pretty skewed slice of the general population and, unfortunately, some of the discussions we sometimes have betray this very limited range of life experiences.

    Going back to Rochdale, finally, I would be fascinated to hear the views of someone in the Asian community who isn’t the Chairman of the Conservative Party, and also from more than one Labour MP too. I can’t believe that they are the sole custodians of wisdom on this subject, even though they may well be providing the type of wisdom we want to receive.

  45. There has been a lot of talk on this thread about some of humanity’s dark side but there are lot of wonderful people out there too. Here is a story of a random act of kindness by one person in central London: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2146671/Cyclist-buys-homeless-man-wanted-eat.html

  46. This is intended to be a non-partisan, feminist comment. Ms Warsi’s Party is irrelevant!

    Baroness Warsi does herself no favours by constantly butting in when being interviewed or when on Question Time etc. Her interventions are rarely a new or insightful comment. Generally speaking, she roars out the Party line, which everybody has already heard a zillion times! So, unless the sight/ sound of a brilliant Asian woman saying exactly what she’s been told to say by dominant white male politicos pushes your buttons, you can only be dismayed by this waste of talent.

    Her speaking out about an issue because her father told her to do so, it is all of a piece with my previous paragraph about her.

    I think she could be a role model for all women – & especially ethnic minority women – were she to be more independent. So, I would like Ms Warsi to find her own voice & say what her own heart & conscience tell her to.
    8-)

  47. My demographic is 18-24, British/Australian white male, attending a private school with a scholarship offer but from a low income family. I guess I kind of fit the stereotypical demographic for politics… on the other hand, I think I’m the only 18-24 year old still here now Max is… on holiday.

  48. Jack Straw last year ?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-12141603

    Trevor Phillips? Not Asian, but Chair of Equality and Human Rights Commission – ‘fatuous’ to deny racial and cultural factors…

    A white Assistant Chief Constable on the other hand is least likely to express an opinion on the influence of race or culture for fear of the possible backlash……

  49. @Alec

    Spot on regarding the warsi/ criminal sex gangs issue.

    @BlueBob

    “Some choose that way of life and i think thats ROB S means in his posts”

    Indeed I did (“some”): and of course the gross ‘oversimplification’ (pace @bluebob) comes from equating this phenomenon to criminal sex gangs in north and Midlands England.

    Still *utterly* flabbergasted by that one.

  50. @Crossbat

    “I get a sense that we represent a pretty skewed slice of the general population and, unfortunately, some of the discussions we sometimes have betray this very limited range of life experience”

    Yep:

    * we are much more politically correct than the average Joe and Jane out in the real world;

    * we are much more sensitive to notions of racism (where in fact we are discussing criminal activity) than the average Joe and Jane out in the real world;

    * and- currently (it was not thus in 2009 when I first started posting on here)- MUCH more left wing than the average Joe and Jane out in the real world.

    My ‘demog’ = 46 year old University lecturer (broadly in social science/ humanities) working in the past in: local government; in Whitehall; and in the private sector for a major property/ real estate consultancy. I went to Uni at 20 after 2 years service in the army post A levels: first person in my extended family to go to university.

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