Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 45%, LDEM 9%, Others 15% (including UKIP on 8%).

So, a second YouGov Labour lead of fourteen points. This is at the top end of the current range (in the last week we’ve also had Labour leads of 10 and 11 points, suggesting an underlying average of 12 or 13 points), but further confirms the higher leads that YouGov have been showing since the local elections.

The poll also has YouGov’s fortnightly best Prime Minister question. In the last questions on whether people thought the leaders were doing well or badly at their roles Ed Miliband received a less negative rating than David Cameron for the first time since last July. David Cameron however still leads as best Prime Minister by 32% to Miliband’s 24% – although that twenty-four is Miliband’s highest since last August, so he is improving.


373 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 31, LAB 45, LDEM 9”

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  1. Amber-

    “It is now 34% who say a Labour majority would be best for Britain”…

    ..exactly! Continues to underline the authors thesis.

    8-)

  2. @ROBIN

    “This isn’t going to fly unless there is cross-party agreement on the way in which the OBR makes its projections. Given its utterly woeful performance so far, that seems rather unlikely”

    Yep- they really have been truly awful.

    I cannot make up my mind on whether this is c*ck up (they have just been woefully bad at their job) or conspiracy (they have been pressurised- despite being ‘independent- to make suitably supportive forecasts for Dave and George).

    Neither explanation showers them with praise.

  3. @ Amber

    I don’t usually pcik people upon typos – but you meant heroine, I think. Or do you find Ms Warsi addictive?

    _________

    When picking people up on typos always proofread your response.

    Howard & Oldnat will be appalled to see me correcting someones post so we shall keep it between us. :)

  4. @BLUEBOB

    “I think ROLY does make a good point, If Warsi was labour the press and media would be calling it a “Brave” statement.”

    Yep. Something that needed desperately to be said and could only really be said by someone from within the community (cultural and religious) that clearly has a serious problem.

    I am just waiting for George Galloway to come out and support “a brave Muslim woman of Pakistani origin”.

    Somehow I don’t think it is going to happen…

    ;-)

  5. @ Blue Bob

    When picking people up on typos always proofread your response.
    ——————–
    That was supposed to be part of my rather lame joke… :-)

  6. I see Nick Clegg was sent to Greece to help bring back the flame. It would have been funnier to have seen Eric Pickles get off the plane and walk with Beckham and Coe.

  7. @ Blue Bob

    “Its a long hard road back for DC, still two years to go but im starting to look at costs of flights to Canada :)”

    There’s a first time for everything I suppose but this is probably the first time I’ve ever heard a conservative threaten to move to Canada if their side loses the election. I’d threaten to move to Canada too but I’ve never joined that crowd as (1) it’s too cold, (2) moving is a real pain, (3) I’m too patriotic, and (4) Canadians absolutely hate Americans (almost as much as the Irish hate the English).

  8. @RHuckle

    “I see Nick Clegg was sent to Greece to help bring back the flame. It would have been funnier to have seen Eric Pickles get off the plane and walk with Beckham and Coe.”

    Eric could have championed healthy lifestyles and the beneficial impact of participating in sport, if a little counter-intuitively perhaps.

    Oops, I’ve gone all sizeist, haven’t I? Good job I’m a fat so-and-so and, therefore, perfectly entitled to comment in such an obviously non-discriminatory sort of way though! lol

    Mind you, Roly and his PC brigade will probably be after me now. As the wonderful Mr Littlejohn might say; you can’t say anything about anybody these days, can you?

  9. @RobS @Amber
    On a mobile device so don’t have access to the figures, but have you removed the DKs as YouGov do for VI and what does that do to Lab Maj? How about the Lab Maj + LibLab once you remove DKs, over 50%
    If you accept the argument that the DKs are important, how about adjusting VI figures and showing that they’re weak compared to post-adjustment?

    What is the Con majority figure and how does that compare to Con VI? If it drops in similar proportion, does that mean it’s equally weak?

    How much have the figures changed since heights of the veto bounce? And pre-budget?
    And was the question asked pre-election? If so, how did that compare to VI in those polls?

    I’ll try to answer these questions myself when I access my computer tomorrow- but it seems like taking a separate question and using that as proof for an arguement wihout giving the proper context to back up the claim may be flawed?
    I’ll be happy to be wrong if the proper context holds up the argument.

  10. That ‘over 50%’ was meant to read ‘over 50%?’.
    Mobile devices are often a pain to tpye porpelry no.

  11. @ Amber

    Sorry was in a rush and did not finish my post.

    Im the last person who should be giving grammer lessons, and i actually did find your post funny.

    I was just making another lame joke about pulling up people for typos but then having one in the post :)

  12. Good Evening All.
    TINGED FRINGE and ROBS and AMBER and LIZH.

    I suspect the ‘real’ figure is Lab and Con nearly neck and neck, with the present peculiar polls a ‘blip’.

    The ‘others’ CREDO/IMO are in reality going to get a handful of seats.

    ED and Ed have done better than pessimists like me were thinking that they were able to achieve.

    So the Unionists of Northern Ireland have a block vote, but divided I know between three factions. The SNP and PC also have some seats in the bag.

    UKIP and the other fringe parties, I think, will fade in terms of seats, no matter what present ‘VI’ statements are made.

  13. @Amber
    That was supposed to be part of my rather lame joke…

    ————————–

    I got the joke. I thought it had legs! :-)

  14. Good Evening All.
    TINGED FRINGE and ROBS and AMBER and LIZH.

    I suspect the ‘real’ figure is Lab and Con nearly neck and neck, with the present peculiar polls a ‘blip’

  15. @ SoCalLiberal

    To be honest it would not be another Labour goverment that tipped me to the point of leaving, we have been talking about it for a while.

    I was in the armed forces many moons ago and progressed to a postion that has helped me since i left.

    This country is no longer what i believe it used to be ( but that is another story that does not belong on a polling website ) but we feel it maybe just maybe it is time for a change.

    Why Canada ?, Spent time there in my earlier years and found it to be a home from home really, Although the do have some very strange ideas from time to time :)

  16. @ SoCalLiberal

    (4) Canadians absolutely hate Americans (almost as much as the Irish hate the English).

    Yes their are many Irish who dislike us but that figure does not come close to the Scottish

    Thankfully that feeling is mutual, well from my side anyway.

  17. BLUE BOB.

    I genuinely think the Irish v English hostilities have ended and become a thing of the past.

  18. @Rob Sheffiled

    It’s not “the community” of Pakistanis in nothern cities that has “a problem”. Also I think the generalisation of “Muslims” that some have used is highly misleading. We are generally talking about a small number of poor educated Pakistanis, whose families are often originally from small, poorly educated villages in Pakistan acting in a truly reprehensible way towards vulnerable young women and girls.

    It is neither a “Muslim” problem, nor a “Pakistani” problem. If it were, why are Muslims from other parts of the world not involved? Also, why are Pakistanis from South of England and/or other countries in the UK involved?

    But it is clearly a problem with a small minority of Pakistanis, or people of Pakistani descent in some Northern cities. Criminality is criminality. I really don’t understand the so called “sensitivities”. Police should enforce the law.

  19. BLUEBOB

    What a peculiar statement!

    You may feel comfortable about disliking Amber, Barney, me or all the other Scots who post on here, just because we are Scots.

    Regrettable, but you make your own decisions.

    However, to suggest that we dislike you or any of the English posters on here because of where they come from lacks just one thing – any semblance of veracity.

  20. @Rob Sheffield

    Needless to say, I’m sure you are aware of the Islamic punishment for the crimes these poeple have carried out (it’s not prison!!!).

  21. @Rob Sheffield

    Lat point. I know how much you dislike Galloway. But it can’t have escaped your attention that he was running AGAINST the type of community protection system in placed like Bradford which may have allowed thiese kinds of crimes to have gone undetected or be dealt with “internally”.

    For once you and he seem to be on the same page :)

  22. @ Blue Bob

    OLL :-) We could keep this going all day.

  23. Hi, Anthony are you putting last night’s poll up? I’m a Ukipper so a little paranoid about them not being put up on the first time UKIP is ahead of the LD by 2 points :)

  24. I know little of the intimate workings of Pakistani communities, but I do know a number of individual Pakistanis and Bangladeshis from friendships forged over many years of playing club cricket with and against them. The impression I got from getting to know them was that they had enormous loyalty to their families, revered the elderly in their communities and were extraordinarily courteous and polite to all they came into contact with. Most were strongly religious and fiercely proud of their culture and country of origin, but they loved Britain and much of western life too. The idea that anything but a minute proportion of these people would indulge in the sort of behaviour seen in Rochdale recently is beyond belief and for anyone to ascribe a cultural proclivity to it is peddling dangerous nonsense in my view.

    What are the Thai and Vietnamese people to make of some of the sorry specimens from our culture and ethnicity who indulge in sex tourism in their beautiful countries, hawking their bounteous credit cards around procuring children for their devious pleasures? Nearly all the culprits are affluent white Western men. Have we got a particular problem in our culture does anyone think?

  25. @ Tinged

    Best for Britain:
    34% Labour
    11% LabDem
    29% Con
    8% ConLib
    18% DK

    VI that day:
    45% Labour
    31% Con
    9% LD
    15% Other

    15% DK
    7% WnotV

    Go for it! :-)

  26. @ Blue Bob

    “Yes their are many Irish who dislike us but that figure does not come close to the Scottish

    Thankfully that feeling is mutual, well from my side anyway.”

    I really like Canadians though. Most Americans do. Some of my friends who are dual citizens inform me that yes the hatred is real and they often send time trying to convince their fellow Canadians that Americans like them.

    I don’t know why the Scots would hate the English. I love the Scots btw (I want to get a t-shirt made that says “Scots Do It Better”) but I don’t understand why Scots would hate the English. I actually resent what some American Scots Nats do (they’re of Scottish ancestry and recognize it)which is to try and pretend that Scotland is a colony of England and ascribe all the bad things the British Empire did to the English. The reality is, regardless of whether Scotland should become independent, the Scots and English were partners in crime for anything done under the British flag.

    And now that I’ve been to Scotland (which is beautiful and I can’t wait till I go back), I have to say that the Scots and the English seem awfully similar. In fact, there’s far more difference between Virginians and Marylanders.

  27. @ RAF

    Needless to say, I’m sure you are aware of the Islamic punishment for the crimes these poeple have carried out (it’s not prison!!!).

    It is neither a “Muslim” problem, nor a “Pakistani” problem. If it were, why are Muslims from other parts of the world not involved? Also, why are Pakistanis from South of England and/or other countries in the UK involved?

    “But it is clearly a problem with a small minority of Pakistanis”

    __________

    First point RAF we are not in a muslim country so those laws do not apply

    Second is that we have only just found out about this one even though it was reported to the police, it may be a isolated incident, it may not.

    Onto your third point, it does not matter how small the community is, it is how they view the british people, girls in perticular.

    And trust me their are plenty that view that way but would not actually act on it.

    I hope this does not come across as right wing, or god forbid bnp style views, it is just from my experience from local musilms who view the girls in my area nothing more than trash.

  28. @ Blue Bob

    “To be honest it would not be another Labour goverment that tipped me to the point of leaving, we have been talking about it for a while.

    I was in the armed forces many moons ago and progressed to a postion that has helped me since i left.

    This country is no longer what i believe it used to be ( but that is another story that does not belong on a polling website ) but we feel it maybe just maybe it is time for a change.

    Why Canada ?, Spent time there in my earlier years and found it to be a home from home really, Although the do have some very strange ideas from time to time.”

    It’s almost become a running joke that Liberals here get so upset that we always threaten to move to Canada. I remember after Dubya got reelected in 04, there was a Facebook Page “F*** this! I’m moving to Canada!” So that’s why it was funny to me see a Conservative saying that.

    I don’t think I’d ever move countries just because of a bad election result (unless that election result forced me to flee). There are some Americans who did move to Canada for that reason but I wonder how they feel with Stephen Harper in charge.

    I could imagine moving when you realize something isn’t what you feel it used to be. I’m kinda going through that right now myself though in an interstate way, not an international way.

    I watch House Hunters International a lot on HGTV (do you guys have HGTV or an equivalent in the UK?) and I often see British people moving to other countries (usually Switzerland for jobs or educational opportunities or southern European countries (Spain, Italy, Portugal, Greece) for the warm weather). They always seem like nice people but I never fully understand them because I like the UK far more than I like southern Europe.

  29. It seems Friday 2100 signals what seems like the dog watch on UKPR.

    Still thanks Amber for the ‘coalition combination’ polling.

    Perhaps we are more ready for the situation than i supposed.

    A good signal for someone to promote PR as as soon as the time is ripe.

  30. @ Valerie

    Hi Valerie, it’s nice to see you’re back – you haven’t been posting for a while, unless I missed some. :-)

  31. @ Oldnat

    What a peculiar statement!

    You may feel comfortable about disliking Amber, Barney, me or all the other Scots who post on here, just because we are Scots.

    Regrettable, but you make your own decisions.

    However, to suggest that we dislike you or any of the English posters on here because of where they come from lacks just one thing – any semblance of veracity.

    __________

    What on earth are you on about

    I do not dislike Amber or Barney, i have never shown that in any of my posts and neither will i.

    Do i dislike you ? Yes, Do i think there are many Scots that dislike us because of Thatcher and other matters? Yes i do

    You on the other hand seem to want to stoke resentment and it shows in all of your posts, you just seem bitter.

    If you do indeed love the english then why are you trying to get the Scottish people to vote to leave this great union of ours ?

  32. @BlueBob

    I think you have completely misunderstood my posts.

    I was saying that the Police should leave no stone unturned and that they should have done so from day one. They are there to investigate crime and apprehend suspects. That is their job and they should do it. Why they did not is a mystery. I am a Muslim of Indian/Pakistani descent, and deplore the Police holding back when vulnerable girls were being subjected to horrendous abuse.

    All I was pointing out is that this is not a Pakistani or Muslim problem. It is a problem with some Pakistanis in some Northern cities. That is true, is it not? Well, then it needs to be addressed as such.

    As for Islamic punishments, I was pointing out that it goes withour saying that these actions are considered amongst the most heinous in Islam. And would be punishible by death. There id no distinction between attack.on.Muslims and those on non-Muslims. The crime is against society as a whole and/or the state. One of the caliphs apprehenfed his own son for raping a non-muslim girl (ib those days thete were very few Muslims, but the point stands). And ensured he wad pyt to death. No-onr is above the law.

  33. bluebob
    @ SoCalLiberal

    (4) Canadians absolutely hate Americans (almost as much as the Irish hate the English).

    Yes their are many Irish who dislike us but that figure does not come close to the Scottish

    Thankfully that feeling is mutual, well from my side anyway
    __________

    There is a saying in Scotland… “Away and boil yer heed” ;)

    Okay pleasantries over and onto tonight’s prediction.

    Labour 43%

    Coalition 39%

    UKIP 9 %

  34. Going Lab 43, Con 31, LDem 9, UKIP 9.

  35. @Bluebob
    (Cont’d)

    I agree that some Muslims think lowly of non-Muslim girls. But there is a world of difference between that and criminality.

  36. @Allan Christie, @Top Hat

    I thought there wasn’t a poll on Friday night?

    If there is, I predict:

    Lab 43
    Con 32
    LD 8
    UKIP 9

  37. @BLUEBOB

    “that we have only just found out about this one even though it was reported to the police, it may be a isolated incident, it may not.”

    It is not isolated it has been reported as occurring in cities with particular demographics across England. The superb Labour MP Anne Cryer was the first to speak out about this over a decade ago in relation to what was regularly happening in west Yorkshire.

    Three separate prosecutions (Sheffield, Derby and Rochdale) of Muslim (but not only Pakistani- some have included Afghanis and Iraqis) sex gangs have so far taken place in the last year or so- with police refusing to confirm or deny the number of ongoing investigations that may or may not end in prosecution.

    Warsi follows in Anne Cryers honourable footsteps by outing the abusers from within her own religious community (however small the number). Yet- sadly- it would seem some people just won’t let themselves be swayed by facts. I personally would just like to see it prevented- that won’t happen if people (from whatever community) are not willing to open their eyes.

    Oh: anyone who finds themselves able to compare/ equate rape, indecent assault and paedophilic grooming by gangs of abusers in northern and midlands England to European sex tourism in SEA (no matter how distasteful we find that) where prostitutes choose to make financial deals for sex with foreign tourists *really* needs to give themselves a very long hard look in the mirror.

    Amazing….8-O

  38. If the Scots love the English why do they support 2 National teams – Scotland & whoever England is playing?
    also When Murray wins he Scottish & when he loses he British. ;)

  39. JIM

    Oh there might not be a poll out tonight right enough!! :(

  40. @ RAF

    My apologies, i am guilty of typing and reading to fast and picking bits out that i dont agree with. Sorry again, though i do stand by my post.

    @ Allan Christie

    Indeed :)

  41. There’s a clear and consistent link between the puritanical attitude of a culture to normal, healthy sexual relations and desires, and the incidence of unnatural sexual practices.

    So, we have child abuse by Catholic priests. We have Bible Belt evangelists paying high class hookers. And we had John Major making the beast with two backs and getting back to basics with the honourable member for Derbyshire South immediately after telling the country that we needed to get back to basic family values.

  42. @ Allan & Top Hat

    You’ll need to hold that thought until tomorrow – YG don’t have a Friday night poll. Or is there a poll tonight from another firm?
    8-)

  43. Robert Newark
    If the Scots love the English why do they support 2 National teams – Scotland & whoever England is playing?
    also When Murray wins he Scottish & when he loses he British.
    _______

    LOL, and in Scotland we think if Murray loses then he is Scottish and if he wins then he’s British but that’s the BBC for you. ;)

    On the football yes you are quite right that most Scots don’t support England but only when it comes to football and that’s the honest truth.

    You can blame the over hyper and nauseating commentary from people like Clive Tyldesley for putting the Scots off. When we watch say France v Spain the last thing we want to hear about is 1966 and yes if Scotland won the world cup then we would be boasting about much much more than England but fortunately in England you would not be subjected to the Scottish media.. ;)

    Does this put your mind at rest lol.

  44. @ ROB S

    Im afraid most MP’s and the media are afraid to say what they think or what is happening, Lets hops this changes it.

    And yes maybe people like Anne Cryers should not be shuffled away because it has potential to cost votes

  45. Amber Star
    @ Allan & Top Hat

    You’ll need to hold that thought until tomorrow – YG don’t have a Friday night poll. Or is there a poll tonight from another firm?
    ________

    Iv’e not seen any other polls but mistakenly thought Yougov has one out tonight. Oh well our as you say we will just have to hold onto hold our thoughts.. :)

  46. Do the Daily Mail want Cameron to go ?

    Every day they seem to have a dig at him.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2146526/David-Cameron-come-playing-games-iPad-Britain-struggles.html

  47. What do people think about this?

    “There would also be deflation, and by 2013-14 unemployment would reach almost 11%, with debt subsequently reaching more than 90% of GDP.”

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/may/18/uk-greece-exits-euro

    This is getting very scary!!!!

  48. My prediction:

    Lab 44, Con 31, LD 8, UKIP 8.

  49. R Huckle

    If Cameron is addicted to pointless computer games, it might explain his anger management issues. It’s a common side effect.

    Whatever. I’m more interested in howthe PM can justify spending public money on an app that keeps him informed about opinion polls. What the hell do the opinion polls have to do with his job as a public servant?

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