Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 45%, LDEM 9%, Others 15% (including UKIP on 8%).

So, a second YouGov Labour lead of fourteen points. This is at the top end of the current range (in the last week we’ve also had Labour leads of 10 and 11 points, suggesting an underlying average of 12 or 13 points), but further confirms the higher leads that YouGov have been showing since the local elections.

The poll also has YouGov’s fortnightly best Prime Minister question. In the last questions on whether people thought the leaders were doing well or badly at their roles Ed Miliband received a less negative rating than David Cameron for the first time since last July. David Cameron however still leads as best Prime Minister by 32% to Miliband’s 24% – although that twenty-four is Miliband’s highest since last August, so he is improving.


373 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 31, LAB 45, LDEM 9”

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  1. First?

    LIZ H are you there?

    Big lead

  2. 32% and 24%? No doubt Clegg’s rating is achingly low, without needing to look. Just shows the distinct lack of charisma in politicians currently I suppose.

  3. @CHRISLANE1945

    I am here. Isn’t this great?

  4. @CHRISLANE1945

    I think EdM’s pledge to scrap the NHS reorganisation did the trick.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/9267876/Ed-Miliband-pledges-to-scrap-NHS-reorganisation.html

  5. LIZ H.
    I do not want you to giggle too much as spill the chablis, but is the figure an outlier do you tink?

  6. @Chrislane1945
    If I do spill the Chablis, my laptop will go pffft.

  7. LOL as we say.

    Interesting days.

  8. So the unemployment data didn’t resonate (or hasn’t so far).

  9. @CHRISLANE1945

    I sense a new record coming on Saturday. I will be out celebrating that.

  10. Ld seem to be stuck on 9%, Labour on about 43% and the Tories on about 31%. But Labour could average out at 44% this week.

  11. @Amber Star – “SDP style break-away from the Conservatives?”

    If Con stay on 31% for much longer they can forget the 301 Group… 201 more like. That would leave 100+ MPs with nothing much to lose.

    There are about 100 Con MPs with Ukip sensibilities, but how many sit in marginal or to be abolished constituencies?

  12. @GWUK

    I wouldn’t say a lack of charisma, more a lack of humanity. Politicians who have no idea of life outside Westminster.

    On the question of how to measure how solid/squiggy the Lab lead is, would a poll question along the lines of ‘have you already decided how you will vote at the next election?’ give us an idea?
    It probably would be much of a prediction in terms of actual numbers, but perhaps might show a trend.

  13. LIZ H.
    In my part of the country, Bournemouth, the Labour Party is fairly moribund.

    How about in your area?

    LD’s seem to be biggest challengers to Cons here.

  14. I would have thought UKIP would be soaring with the Eurozone’s current problems, but not so. Perhaps there’s been a realisation even amongst the most ardent Eurosceptics that if Greece is forced out we will suffer greatly.

  15. @CHRISLANE1945
    “How about in your area?
    LD’s seem to be biggest challengers to Cons here.”

    Unfortunately the same here where I live. However I am hoping that all the people who are fed up of LDs will now vote Labour. It would be great if the NHA (doctors for the NHS) Party stood here but I think they will target high profile MPs who were instrumental in the NHS reforms.

  16. @ LizH

    If anything that seems to be a rowing-back from Burnham’s earlier pledge of reversing the bill – this seems to be “we’ll keep it but without certain parts”.

  17. @Alec

    I’ve replied to your question on the previous thread on the previous thread.

    Regards, Martyn

  18. @RAF
    “I would have thought UKIP would be soaring with the Eurozone’s current problems…”

    Mr. Cruddas is supposedly demanding an immediate referendum on Europe ( http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9268447/Ed-Milibands-new-policy-chief-backs-a-vote-on-Europe.html ) so people may not have to go to UKIP to get what they want.

  19. CON have lost around 8% since the budget.

    Earlier much of that lead seemed to have gone to UKIP but now around half of that 8% has gone to LAB.

    Not good news for CON. Whichever way they turn, they stand to lose more voters!

  20. LD’s heading back into double figures. The comeback-kings.

  21. LD’s heading back up to double figure territory – the fightback begins……

  22. @Craig

    “If anything that seems to be a rowing-back from Burnham’s earlier pledge of reversing the bill – this seems to be “we’ll keep it but without certain parts”.”

    Does seem a bit like that I have to admit. We have to keep up the pressure and not let Andy Burnham forget what he promised.

  23. why does it say your post hasn’t posted when it has?

    I blame the government.

  24. Chris Lane
    “interesting days”

    Groan. :-)

  25. http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/f3erqiz76o/YG-Archives-Pol-Sun-results-160512.pdf

    Tables are fairly interesting. I think we could soon see the Tories dip below 30% for a short period.

  26. @ HOWARD

    If by Sept 2014, it looks highly likely that the Lib Dems would suffer a near wipe out at the following years GE, do you think there would be appetite to have a change of leader ?

    If it were not for the forthcoming court appearance, I could see Chris Huhne taking over the leadership. So my money would be on Tim Farron, who I like, as he comes across well, being one of few MP’s who answers the question that is being asked, rather than just give a politicians answer. Plus his seat, is pretty safe, with him getting 60% of the votes at the last GE.

  27. @LizH

    I did say Cruddas had his finger on the pulse. Although.I would not support an immediate referendum. We need a balanced debate.

  28. “Labour now 5% ahead of the Coalition!!!!!” Could this be the headline in tomorrow’s Sun, do we think??

    On the subject of leadership ratings and “best Prime Minister” scores, I thought Peter Kellner was interesting on this in his otherwise surprisingly incoherent article the other day. He reminded us of the relative positions of Wilson and Heath before the 1970 election, with Wilson comfortably outscoring Heath on popularity and Prime Ministerial qualities yet still going on to decisively lose the General Election. Kellner’s conclusion was that whilst Wilson had recovered personally, his government hadn’t escaped from the memories, or the depth, of their mid-term unpopularity. This is an interesting historical precedent that should caution all of us about getting too carried away by the vagaries of leadership polling scores. There are far more important determinants of electoral success or failure, I think. Perceived Government incompetence is the key and this is where I’d be getting worried now if I was a Coalitionista.

    Where I thought Kellner was a little incoherent was that his conclusion was at odds with the extensive evidence he had assembled in the earlier part of his article. He was scientific and evidential for the bulk of it and then concluded with a hunch. Very odd.

  29. My wife has informed me thataccording to an independent assessment, 82% of cuts / tax increases have yet to take place. It has just been repeated on Newsnight,

    Phew!

  30. I think the trend is clearly towards Labour at the moment. Perhaps people are identifying the Brooks couple as being part of the Conservative party. To some extent, it is possible they are too. Nor is Jeremy Hunt’s continued presence in his role playing well.He is damaging his part by staying on

    With more cuts on the horizon, and Osborne determined not to be diverted from his suicidal policies, I don’t think the future is very bright for the tories.

    Expect more and more labour ‘outliers’!

  31. @ LizH, Craig

    “If anything that seems to be a rowing-back from Burnham’s earlier pledge of reversing the bill – this seems to be “we’ll keep it but without certain parts”.”
    —————————–
    The biggest promise is: There will not be another major upheaval imposed upon the NHS. Miliband has said that Labour would like to reverse entirely Lansley’s bill but Labour will listen to what the NHS staff think is best, come the day…
    8-)

  32. R Huckle

    In 2013 we have county elections. These would be significant for LD morale.

    Want a bypass anyone?

    More likely would be the care of elderly and schools.

  33. @Martyn – thanks for the reply on last thread.

    @Lizh – interested what your view is on Crudass being brought into to policy review?

  34. HOWARD.
    I do think these times are very interesting politically.

    We could be on the verge of a european economic collapse, huge defeat for the government, the rise of new new Labour, a big shift in the media world.

  35. Chris

    all times are interesting otherwise we would not post.

    I cede that some times are more ‘interesting’ than others. :-)

  36. @Howard

    There have been some significant cuts in the public sector (hundreds of thousands of jobs shed). However, if as you say the worst is yet to come, then there must be a rather large question mark as to the likelihood of the even deeper cuts happening anytsoon. And indeed an exclamation mark against the politics of advocating deeper cuts as essential only to fail to implement them.

  37. ChrisLane1945,

    ‘Interesting days’

    To borrow a style, are you really ChrisLane and not perhaps ‘Wayne’, a previous poster on UKPR (although he did not win three elections IMO/credo), who cited times that were interesting?

    LOL, as the kids say ;-)

  38. HOODED MAN

    “LOL, as the kids say”

    Are you suggesting that Cameron is a kid (and a poorly informed one at that)?

  39. @Alec
    “@Lizh – interested what your view is on Crudass being brought into to policy review?”

    Crudass is a likeable character and what I like about him is that he appears to know what he wants and not afraid to say it. The policy review has been going on for sometime under Liam Byrne ( a Blairite) and now that the tide is definitely turning towards a reddish Europe, it is good to have a pair of ‘ competent lefty eyes” to go over the policies to make sure it has the correct hue.

  40. HOODED MAN.
    Lol as the boys say.

    Not a Wayne me, sorry. Can any Wayne say Credo, or sing Credo? I tink not Sir.

    Three General Elections in a row for Labour? Wow. I am too young to remember that man now. Who was he?

    By the way IMO/Credo that the Coalition will survive until Sept 2014

  41. @LIZH
    `and now that the tide is definitely turning towards a reddish Europe`

    Seems like it doesn`t it? Hollande`s 75% tax rate and warnings of the rich crossing the channel din`t stop him getting elected!

  42. @Amber Star
    “Miliband has said that Labour would like to reverse entirely Lansley’s bill but Labour will listen to what the NHS staff think is best, come the day…”

    I could go with that.

  43. LizH

    “Crudass is a likeable character”

    Yes, but as with Adlestrop ‘the name’.

    Not a future leader I suspect.

  44. ChrisLane,

    Just teasing. I am amused by your style. You couldn’t possibly be a Wayne. But you can now understand why Howard ‘groaned’

    Old Nat,

    Not a kid. But yes, poorly informed. To my (partial) shame though, I also thought LOL meant the same when I first read it. Lots of awkward conversations ensued……

  45. @SMUKESH
    “Seems like it doesn`t it? Hollande`s 75% tax rate and warnings of the rich crossing the channel din`t stop him getting elected!”

    I am a bit of an idealist and I am so excited that a new dawn is dawning. The rich will pay their fair share; the media will not hold our politicians to ransom and we will live in a more equitable and sustainable world.

  46. HOODED MAN

    You might have struck lucky though!

  47. @HOWARD
    “Not a future leader I suspect.”

    I think at the 2010 leader elections he said he was more interested in being involved in formulating policies than being leader.

  48. @R Huckle – “Plus his seat, is pretty safe, with him getting 60% of the votes at the last GE.”

    It does look safe. At the 2005 GE though (LD gain from Con as part of the “decapitation strategy”), he only won the seat by 267 votes.

    Looking at the swings in Westmorland and Lonsdale LDs have been garnering votes fron both Con and Lab over the years, so he will again be relying on a mix of Lab tactical voters and Tories voting for the incumbent.

  49. @Liz H
    Cruddas clearly lurks on this site late at night and is even now waiting with baited breath for our latest pronouncements as he commences his work. For how else can you explain such a prompt response to my reply to @Amber of a couple of days back?

    “The last Labour leader before Blair to win a GE did so on the promise of an EEC referendum, subsequently kept. It caused the former Conservative MP of these parts to advocate a vote for Labour. Something for E Miliband to mull over.”
    May 14th, 2012 at 10:38 pm

  50. @Howard – the assertion that 82% of the cuts have yet to hit is apparently true and is very interesting.

    On UKPR, and elsewhere, I’ve seen many blue pundits fall back on the arguments that;

    1) the government hasn’t actually cut that much, and
    2) Exports are rising.

    These points are used to argue the case that having a double dip recession is nothing to do with our government.

    If both of these assertions are true, which appears to be the case, it does raise the question of why we are, in fact, suffering from another recession.

    In my view it’s one of those issues that hasn’t been reviewed by the media nor discussed widely in political circles, but from my reading of the statistics there seems a clear argument to be made that Osborne effectively talked us into recession by the aggressive austerity talk in 2010.

    Economic confidence indices dropped sharply from around March 2010, when Osborne’s political tactic of suggesting the need for austerity really kicked in. I have always thought the ’emergency budget’ of June 2010 was a disaster – for the sake of a measley £6B of savings, that could easily have been made without a budget, Osborne established in people’s minds that we were in crisis. Indeed, he and Cameron (and flame haired former Cairngorm National Park Press Officer Danny A) reveled in talk of a crisis as part of the ‘Blame Labour’ strategy for the 2015 election campaign.

    In large part, in my view this is what has put the UK into recession. We currently have record levels of business assets in banks, but collapsing investment. Confidence was the key to everything, and this really was a recession made in Downing Street, borne out of the political strategy devised to help the coalition at the next election. Osborne has frightened consumers and businesses so much, that the deflationary impacts have run far ahead of the actual cuts to date in government expenditure.

    This means we have already suffered significantly for really quite limited budget savings, so heaven knows what’s going to happen when the real cuts actually start.

    One consolation for those outside the coalition is that chickens will come home to roost. The idea that a crisis mentality could be evoked, everything blamed on Labour, recovery by 2013 and tax cuts by 2014 with a GE victory to follow is now completely bogus. Osborne’s frightened us so much he’s collapsed the economy, and shafted himself in the process.

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