Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 45%, LDEM 9%, Others 15% (including UKIP on 8%).

So, a second YouGov Labour lead of fourteen points. This is at the top end of the current range (in the last week we’ve also had Labour leads of 10 and 11 points, suggesting an underlying average of 12 or 13 points), but further confirms the higher leads that YouGov have been showing since the local elections.

The poll also has YouGov’s fortnightly best Prime Minister question. In the last questions on whether people thought the leaders were doing well or badly at their roles Ed Miliband received a less negative rating than David Cameron for the first time since last July. David Cameron however still leads as best Prime Minister by 32% to Miliband’s 24% – although that twenty-four is Miliband’s highest since last August, so he is improving.


373 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 31, LAB 45, LDEM 9”

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  1. Another feminist alert comment.

    It matters not the country, women & children being treated as property, commodities & animals is intolerable in a civil society.

    I am dismayed by some of the media & blogosphere commentary. For the most part, it panders to racists & the proclivity of the media to treat anything which involves sex as titillating whilst hiding behind a smokescreen of faux outrage.

    The term ‘grooming’ is part of this woeful debate. Are we talking of horses, dogs or other domestic animals? No!!! These are young, vulnerable teenagers being offered attention, presents, alcohol, drugs & other incitements to be involved in something which is illegal; something which could have a long lasting impact on their mental & physical health.

    I am going to work on my contacts in the Labour Party. It’s time we set a community target of finding a ‘big sister’ for every teenage girl who is in local authority care.
    8-)

  2. @Crossbat11 – chair of the Manchester based Ramadhan Foundation -“Mr Shafiq said: “There is a significant problem for the British Pakistani community, there is an over-representation amongst recent convictions in the crime of on-street grooming, there should be no silence in addressing the issue of race as this is central to the actions of these criminals.

    “They think that white teenage girls are worthless and can be abused without a second thought; it is this sort of behaviour that is bringing shame on our community.

    “I urge the police and the councils not to be frightened to address this issue, there is a strong lesson that you cannot ignore race or be over sensitive.”

    He said their research suggested that young Pakistanis found these crimes disgusting, while older members of this community were less condemnatory, and that in his view, this is where a specific cultural issue lay.

    I don’t know much about the Ramadhan Foundation, but like Trevor Phillips, they aren’t right wing white racists.

    I believe you are in part right, in that members of all cultures and groups are equally capable of doing good and bad things, but I fundamentally disagree with you that there are no specific cultural issues relating to certain crimes.

  3. @Bluebob

    correction: should be “(pace @billybob)” of course ;-)

  4. AMBER I shudder to imagine what your partisan posts are like. :) (62 year old white, secondary modern, non university educated, now retired ex finance professional.

  5. @Hooded Man

    “A white Assistant Chief Constable on the other hand is least likely to express an opinion on the influence of race or culture for fear of the possible backlash……”

    I forgot to make this precise point yesterday evening.

    Part of the last 20 year “graduate intake” managerial strata where being PC (no pun intended) is seen as being more important to ones career than actually being effective at tackling crime !

    @Amber

    On Prostitution Vs Criminal sex gangs: don’t go in for *moral equivalence*- whilst they are both negative they are clearly not identical phenomena.
    8-)

  6. @ Rob S

    A correction to your correction, it should be pace @Billy

  7. @ Rob Sheffield

    I don’t do moral equivalence. In civil societies both Prostitution (or ‘inciting’ prostitution) & ‘Criminal sex gangs’ are usually illegal.
    8-)

  8. Rob S,

    To be fair, I think it’s better the police don’t get involved in making statements singling out any race or culture for links to criminal activity. The existence of ‘institutional racism’ in the force means they need to tread a very fine line and must (try to) be seen as ‘beyond reproach’ on racial issues (I was going to say ‘whiter than white’ but that would probably be misinterpreted by some!)

    Better that community leaders or representatives, or those that clearly can’t have charges of racism levelled at them, to make those links to the extent they exist.
    For the police, those responsible for crimes such as Rochdale are still criminals to be caught whatever race or creed…..

  9. @Richard – “I have always seen BNP as taking votes off Labour rather than Tories.”

    Here is what AW had to say on the matter:

    The demographics of people who voted BNP in the European elections show they are more likely to be C2DE social class, likely to read the Sun or Star and almost certainly not a broadsheet, they are likely to work in a manual occupation (they are also likely to be male and middle aged, though that has less of a partisan implication). They are also likely to come from a Labour supporting background – 47% of BNP voters say their parents voted Labour.

    This fits with the pattern of where the BNP tend to do well – normally seats that were previously strongly Labour – and with other studies of where the BNP get their support.

    If BNP supporters are traditional Labour, male working class voters therefore, the natural conclusion that it’s Labour they are taking support from. This falls down, however, on some other questions – asked if they’d rather have Cameron or Brown as PM, BNP voters opt for Cameron by 59% to 17%. Asked to place themselves on the political spectrum they put themselves right of centre, in roughly the same place as they do the Tories. 22% of them think the Tories care about people like themselves, only 6% say the same about Labour. In short, the people the BNP seem to appeal to are actually “working class Tories” – the sort of traditional working class voters who under other circumstances might shift over to the Conservatives.

    h
    ttp://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2172

  10. HOODED MAN

    @”For the police, those responsible for crimes such as Rochdale are still criminals to be caught whatever race or creed…..”

    That is the bottom line.

    If the Rochdale cops had taken this seriously from the first complaints & signs, some years of abuse would have been avoided.

    I do agree with RS’s remark about the PC tendency having gained ground in the Police Force.

    I think they have lost their way in some instances.

    Laudable, but hopelessly inappropriate objectives to do with social cohesion , and “community ” seem to have crept in-militating against basic policing & the anti-crime agenda.

    If the police try too hard to make value judgements , it must detract from application of the law.

    I must say that Ian Blair when heading the Met epitomised this form of policing to me.

    The current incumbent seems far less exercised with PC behaviour -and more focused on PC’s crime solving.

  11. @Liz H

    “There has been a lot of talk on this thread about some of humanity’s dark side but there are lot of wonderful people out there too. Here is a story of a random act of kindness by one person in central London”

    You’re quite right and to get another glimpse of it, I commend Jonathan Feedland’s article in today’s Guardian, A very moving piece about his recently departed mother. Beautifully written and dripping with humanity and warmth.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/may/18/death-life-mother-rescued-by-love

    Of course my own dark side emerged about an hour ago when I watched the bleedin’ ‘Ammers, Gold, Sullivan et al, win promotion back to the Premiership in this afternoon’s play off. Damn and blast!

  12. Opinium so far this year

    Con. 36, 37, 38, 36, 35, 38, 34, 32, 31, 32, 30%
    Lab.. 37, 37, 36, 36, 39, 36, 39, 37, 38, 39, 41%
    LD…. 09, 09, 08, 10, 10, 10, 08, 09, 11, 08, 09%
    UKIP 07, 06, 06, 07, 06, 07, 09, 10, 08, 10, 10%

    Con 30-38 ave 34.45%
    Lab 36-41 ave 37.72%
    LD…. 8-11 ave 9.27%
    UKIP 6-10 ave 7.82%

  13. @ billybob

    Thanks for the stats re BNP voters (by the way Richard and shevii are both me posting- somehow I got logged out and I am logged back in again!).

    Some re-appraisal from me needed. I guess equating BNP success in Labour areas is not the same as BNP taking votes off Labour judging by those figures. I stand corrected!

  14. According to BBC, two new Greek opinion polls today both put New Democracy and Syriza neck and neck on 25%. It looks like pro- and anti-bailout voters are going to continue switching to these two frontrunners, and whichever wins may well be able to form a government this time. The only question is, which one will win? And will the electorate accept the result?

  15. ComRes reportedly asking which third parties voters would ‘seriously consider’ voting for. IIRC previous polling has shown a maximum of about 30% for UKIP but that was when Cons were far more popular and when UKIP weren’t nearly as popular as now – this could be one to watch.
    If UKIP is still so low for consideration then Cons can rest easy.. but if things have changed, who knows?

    Greens taking potetial Lab voters also to look out for as they’ve gained in elections.
    And they even ask about Respect so that may be of interest to those who feel they may or may not be a threat.

  16. Billy Bob

    Your (from AW) picture of the average BNP voter reminded me of the Alf Garnett character, were it not for his portrayed love of Churchill, Monarchy, Church and all the rest of the then traditional Tory package.

    Yes, I am aware of his fictional status, :-) although the man who created him drew heavily on real life. Speight’s better character to my mind was Else. Was she Mrs Duffy? No, I think she voted Labour (secretly).

    Was Simpson’s Alfred Steptoe a BNP voter. I don’t think so. I think he voted Tory, whereas Harold undoubtedly was Lib Dem. Again the scripts were ace, and i loved the funeral episode best, priceless.

    I suppose all were a bit ‘Giles cartoon’ but what’s wrong with that? It takes a foreigner like ‘Giles’ to point out the stupidity of the country in which he finds himself.

    You want to hear what I write about the Dutch. :-)

  17. Richard

    I do find it a little odd how badly the BNP have done electorally recently. Not sure if this is just to do with the big parties (mainly Labour) putting campaigning work into areas to win the seats back or whether it reflects disillusionment with the councillors elected or maybe a return to the Labour fold (I have always seen BNP as taking votes off Labour rather than Tories- the ‘woking class racist’) given they are not in government.

    I think some of the BNP’s problems will be down to on the ground work, though mainly by community and anti-racist groups, rather than just Labour and the other Parties. Apart from anything else, some BNP electoral success wasn’t in the stereotypical working-class areas, especially outside London. Such campaigning is always more effective if non-partisan anyway.

    The BNP didn’t help themselves with most of the Councillors they got elected either. Apart from a tendency to end up in court (often for various types of social security fraud, which was fairly amusing given their rhetoric), most were just embarrassingly bad at it. It’s been notable over the last decade how few BNP Councillors get re-elected. What councillors they do have seem to be distancing themselves – I notice the two on Bradford have redesignated themselves as Independents.

    I think you’re wrong about about where their support came from though. Although they attracted some ex-Labour votes, the bedrock came from Conservatives, including traditional working-class Tories. This explains another reason for BNP decline – the rise of UKIP. Especially for those BNP-inclined voters not driven by racism this provides a more comfortable alternative.

  18. Roger mexico

    The record of UKIP types both in the EU and locals is also somewhat tarnished by numerous misdemeanours here in the SW.

    The problem for an emerging party is always to have the organisation to root out the chancers.

    The same thing happens in reverse as I have noted recently with my own party. Quite a few have defected to the Cons on the basis (presumably) that their narrow LD victories in a Tory area will be rewarded and they will retain their handy councillor salaries. It has worked. Several are now the apple of the local Tory eye.

    If voters knew about them what I know…….. :-)

  19. Roger – the BNP have also self-destructed to some degree. After the leadership challenges against Nick Griffin they have lost many key activists, and purged other key activists. The recent drop in their vote will to some degree be a reflection of organisational collapse.

  20. @ Roger Mexico, I would find it odd if you are correct because I can see Tories voting for a socialist party like the BNP and I also would think BNP voters would extremely dislike UKIP’s non racist and free market policy. I doubt that many supporters of the BNP’s social or economic policy would ever go to UKIP.

  21. oops, above I meant *can’t see many Tories voting for a socialist party*

    I agree Anthony, it seems the BNP went into self destruct with in fighting, can’t say it doesn’t bring a smile to my face to see the racist socialists self destruct like that.

  22. It’s a bit of a gamble, but apparently we’re signing 75 year old ex-Kraut goal-meister Uwe Coelocanth.

  23. Hmm. Looks like I’m posting on the wrong forum. Do ignore that previous bizarre ejaculation.

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