Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor poll is now out in the Evening Standard (which seems to have become its new home after living at Reuters for 18 months or so). Topline figures, with changes from last month, are CON 33%(-2), LAB 43%(+5), LDEM 9%(-3).

It’s a big shift towards Labour, but this is probably something of a reversion to the mean after a bit of an outlier last month when MORI showed a much smaller Labour lead than most other companies. The 9 points for the Lib Dems is the lowest that MORI have shown for a year.


279 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 33, LAB 43, LDEM 9”

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  1. OLDNAT

    @”Is that why other countries are so badly run? ”

    I can’t speak for Scotland.–and even an education at St. Andrews could hardly compensate for a career with RBS.

    @” except, of course, for Middle East monarchies whose ruling princes frequently went to Oxbridge”

    Some Middle East monarchies seem to be enlightened & progressive.
    Some are clearly still living in the Middle Ages.

    I make the assumption that an Oxbridge education would furnish the princes of both with the means of ruling well & wisely .
    Oxbridge can hardly be responsible for the cultural & religious imperatives in the kingdoms in question can it ?

  2. *1922*

  3. Colin

    I note your acceptance that you were only speaking of the governance of England.

    I note that you are also making an assumption. Evidence is normally better than assumption.

  4. I’ve been watching the Scottish sub samples to see how if at all Labours rise was effecting voting here. Although the variation from day to day is huge.

    I had seen what appears to be a series of good results over the last week for Labour.

    The average over the last 75 Yougov polls for Scotland gives;

    Lab-38%, SNP-33%, Con-18%, LibDem-6%, Others-5%

    Over the last ten polls it has shifted too;

    Lab-38%, SNP-33%, Con-16%, LibDem-8%, Others-5%

    So if Labour are benefitting over the SNP no sign of it yet and if anything the Tories are losing out to the LibDems.

    To be honest I think that the benefit of a fall in Tory and or LibDem support will be split between Labour and the SNP roughly 60/40 in Labours favour so if they dropped say 3%, 2% Tory, 1% LibDem then I would expect Labour to rise to 40% and the SNP to go to 34%.

    How that would effect a UK election might interest many of you but to be honest we are launching the Independence campaign in earnest next week my thoughts are elsewhere.

    Peter.

  5. @ Colin

    “I have thought all along that the largest quantity of ordure to hit the fan will not emanate from Politicians & NI-but from the Police & NI.”

    That is my opinion also. And it not just the Police, but other public servants and private companies. There was a CH4 dispatches programme this week, on private investigators managing to obtain information from many different sources.

    http://www.channel4.com/programmes/dispatches/4od

    I can remember on many occasions shaking my head, when I looked at newspaper headlines, thinking, how on earth did they manage to obtain the story. It will be interesting whether it is revealed, just how certain had been obtained.

  6. Colin

    I have thought all along that the largest quantity of ordure to hit the fan will not emanate from Politicians & NI-but from the Police & NI.

    Oh quite. Compared to what we already know about NI (and possibly other part of the Media) and worst of all the police (including the Met from the top down), the sins of the politicians are comparatively minor. That is assuming no direct interference is found in the judicial process and remembering that the Met is police force that politicians had and have most control over.

    But the politicians are still in very deep trouble for two reasons. One is ironically because what the police and NI did is so serious that much of what occurred with them cannot be discussed at Leveson because of possible future criminal prosecutions. The tribunal can only use the scraps of Data Pool 3 while the reddest meat goes to the police investigation. So by default there has to be a concentration on the failings of politicians. Which are substantial enough.

    The other reason is the faults that are being revealed are political faults: gullibility, allowing undue influence, not following agreed procedures, misleading Parliament, weakness. Mostly not remotely criminal but often fatal to political careers.

    And it ain’t gonna be over till the red-haired lady sings. :P

  7. Grateful for the Rowson explanations. As I indicated I thought RB was being depicted in the unlikely image of a holier than thou leveller (as a satire).

    I prefer Peter Brookes but you have to pay to look at those and Murdoch is a no go zone in this house.

    The situation seems pretty solid -one might even say ‘polldrums’ Amber!

  8. R HUCKLE

    Yes indeed.

    It’s going to be explosive & I think Brookes will now be in the mood to get revenge.

    RAF

    @” He’s what the Labour Party lacks. Someone who really connects with ordinary people, did not go to Oxbridge ”

    So when does EM get the chop then?
    He graduated from Corpus Christi College, Oxford .

    You lefties are so funny :-) :-) :-) :-)

  9. Adam Smith, having done the honourable thing by falling on his sword to save his master, will now have to give testimony on oath in front of Leveson… G O’Donnell having made clear that Hunt was responsible for Smith’s actions. Fred Michel has also been called to testify.

  10. Peter

    As the remaining LDs seem to be more right wing and Unionist than the pre 2010 cohort, I agree that the switch of some support from LD to Tory is of little significance

    We appear to.be nearing the end of the rather arid debate about process, and the real debate about whether Scots would be better to be in an independent Scotland, the status quo, or some “semi-detached” relationship with the UK is about to start.

  11. Old Nat

    Oi – I’m a ‘remaining LD ( and I can tell you that on the internal web site there are a huge cohort of lefties complaining loudly. Well a few, but they post a lot. :-)

  12. WOODSMAN, ROBIN AND R HUCKLE.
    Good Evening Gentlemen.

    Surely a man would have to have a heart of stone not to be moved by the plea for the family against media hassle?

    I do not do sherry anyway, sometimes some beers with grumpy old men, with whom I have been meeting since GE of 1992, monthly. They call themselves catholic atheists.

    On a wider note, it seems that these stories will dominate politics into the summer.

  13. Pardon – there *is* a huge cohort.

  14. Howard

    You have my commiserations.

    My comment actually referred to the wee remnant of the LDs in Scotland.

    As I understand the strange pattern of party support in the far south of GB, you have a different set of allegiances than we do.

    It’s always difficult to compare political support in very different political climates.

  15. I had forgotten that a cohort was 6 centuries. Not that many lefties on the LD web site nowadays. Mind you, i doubt if there are 600 LDs on the Lib Dem website.

  16. Old Nat
    As you know we will gladly bid you farewell, but there is an affliction in Lab and LD circles that we need those in Scotland otherwise we /they will never make it in the UK Parliament. Fools..

  17. Howard

    When I were a lad “make it” had a sexual connotation.

    I’m sure that your remaining representatives will continue to prosper in that field, regardless of whether there are Scots MPs or not.

  18. @chrislane1947 – “… these stories will dominate politics into the summer.”

    Most commentators believe the scandal will dog Cameron all the way to the GE.

    Unlikely that the Brooks case will properly get going before 2013.

    The meteoric career is over, the friends have turned their backs… and she has become a mother late in life.

  19. @ Chris Lane

    “On a wider note, it seems that these stories will dominate politics into the summer.”

    These stories will run and run until the next general election.

  20. @ Trofimov’s Pocket Watch

    “Thankyou for the informative post, and if I lived in California I would also vote for the Governer’s proposals, however:

    “This isn’t like Hollande’s proposals to tax 100% of income over 750,000 Euros”

    Neither is Hollande’s – it was Melenchon who proposed a 100% tax, Hollande wants a 75% tax on those earning more than a million.

    I’ve seen a lot of scaremongering about Hollande from US media so thought it worth mentioning that he is not actually a communist.”

    My apologies for confusing the two of them and confusing their policies. I oppose both of them. Moonbeam’s proposals do not come close to either one. Notwithstanding that I think that Hollande has some good ideas and seems promising. I’m glad he won and he should be given the benefit of the doubt until he screws up royally.

    The real problem in CA is with our property tax system. The rates get frozen in at the time of purchase, not at the current value of the home. The state loses out on an untold tens of billions at least as a result of this. Now, the current law serves a very good purpose. It helps keep seniors in their homes, protects people against the harsh side effects of gentrification, and helps reward people for their responsibility. However, the current property tax regime doesn’t just apply to residential property, it applies to ALL property, including commercial and industrial. It also applies to major residential landlords (which is one reason they really wanted the rollback). I’m fine with keeping the system for residential home owners. People shouldn’t be punished for the economic success of their neighborhoods. However, commercial and industrial properties could stand to pay their fair share.

    Also, I’m not quite sure how this would be done because there are some constitutional principles here that have to be dealt with. I think that people who receive the protection of the property tax regime need to pay California income tax as well. And if they don’t, they need to pay a supplement equal to what they would have paid if they were residents of California.

    I’ll give you an example (and I think it’s what R Huckle was alluding to). My dad has this friend who’s a raging, radical right wing Republican. He’s so right wing, he doesn’t even think women should have the right to vote. Well for this guy’s Beverly Hills home that he purchased decades ago, he receives the current property protection regime (so he pays a property tax rate not on what his property is actually worth but what it was worth decades ago when he bought it). Now this guy is a retired judge and he gets hefty retirement benefits from the state (something he conveniently forgets because it is the state that he so abhors) and he and his lovely (add neccessary sarcasm) wife have purchased a vacation home in Lake Las Vegas, Nevada. If they haven’t already, they’re going to become “residents” of the state of Nevada where income taxes are far less (albeit economic opportunity is far less…..but that doesn’t matter so much when you’re retired). Therefore he gets the property tax benefit of being a California property owner but doesn’t have to pay any of the income taxes needed to maintain the state.

    I think this is a problem and it needs to be fixed. If you get this awesome property tax protection, it should come hand in hand with the other tax responsibilities that one owns. Now some people might complain that if the system is changed, it will discourage vacation home buyers in California. So be it. :)

    @ American Bystander

    “Moonbeam’s finally being sensible about taxes, I take it. About time, maybe if he didn’t have a flat tax on his platform, he would have been competitive against Clinton.”

    Wow, you are a student of history! (Were you even alive during the 1992 Primary? I don’t ask that question in a demeaning way, I was barely a toddler myself but I’m impressed that you know that info. I didn’t even know that Moonbeam had embraced the stupidity that is the flat tax).

    Btw, the flat tax is proof of the existence of satan, I’m convinced. It is a tool designed to benefit the wealthiest and hurt the poor and the middle class the most while masquerading as “fairness.” And it always seems to me that those who would be hurt by the flat tax are always its biggest backers. It is SO frustrating to see people back this. It really is. Hopefully lawmakers will be smart enough to never enact something like it. Although these days between the Teabaggers and the Michele Rhee worshippers and all the other crazies getting elect, you never know.

    I’m no great fan of Moonbeam but I did vote for him. He’s doing an okay job. My dad couldn’t get over his dislike of him and voted for Meg Whitman even while voting Dem the rest of the way.

  21. howard

    I had forgotten that a cohort was 6 centuries. Not that many lefties on the LD web site nowadays. Mind you, i doubt if there are 600 LDs on the Lib Dem website.

    Don’t worry most ‘centuries’ were “60 to 80 men despite the commonly assumed 100” according to Wikipedia.

    So you don’t need quite as many – though at this rate…

  22. @ American Bystander

    Also, while I’m on my soap box here, can I just point out that there is nothing inherently wrong with tax credits and other loopholes? I mean, the whole design of them is to reward individuals for doing things that benefit the rest of us. I think that’s a good thing.

    Now, when those loopholes aren’t benefitting the rest of us, then we should talk about changing them.

  23. Good Night All on quite a day for British Politics.

    By the way I think the VI for the LD’s on YG seems a little too high?

    What do people think here about that?

  24. On the subject of the Lib Dems, I’m wondering if there is a certain change in attitude taking place among them. I get the impression that many seem to have (subconsciously) given Clegg two years to come up with the goods either in terms of policy delivered or support or anything. Of course it’s been more or less a disaster with not having achieved much except blame.

    Now the Lib Dems are tough but given the choice between being right or popular, they would like at least one of them. So Clegg will start to come under a lot of pressure in the next few months.

  25. @Ken

    “The fightback starts here”

    This reminds me of one of my favourite political quotes of all time – John Major under pressure:

    “We will do precisely what the British nation has done all through its history when it had its back to the wall — turn round and fight for the things it believes in, and that is what I shall do”

    I think the wall is still standing.

  26. Chris Lane,

    “By the way I think the VI for the LD’s on YG seems a little too high?”

    I think it’s just been transcribed upside-down tonight.

  27. SoCal,

    “Some of you have asked me how President Obama’s endorsement of legalized same-sex marriage would affect his re-election chances…”

    I was one of those, so thanks for your response…

  28. @ Michael Elliott

    “I was one of those, so thanks for your response…”

    You are very welcome.

    Check out this news item because it tells you where Republicans are on these issues and why their reaction to Obama’s announcement will ultimately hurt them.

    http://wtvr.com/2012/05/15/judge-nomination-of-tracy-thorne-begland-voted-down/

  29. Good Morning All. A beautiful May morning.

    Politics has becoming interesting, and men are talking about it in the pubs.

    I stll think it is far too early to claim defeat or victory in the gE of 2015. City scored twice in the injury time period.

  30. “Now the Lib Dems are tough but given the choice between being right or popular, they would like at least one of them. So Clegg will start to come under a lot of pressure in the next few months.”
    There’s already talk of rebellion on the proposed disability benefit changes – it’s been leaked to the papers (possibly by the LibDems themselves?) that blind and partially sighted people will lose a huge amount of money in the benefit changes.

    I’d imagine there’ll also be talk of rebellion over the announced £25bn in welfare cuts that the PM is proposing [1]. I’d imagine such a proposal (on top of the IIRC £28bn already penned in) would help solidify ex-LibDem support over to Labour and if the LibDems want any sort of recovery from those voters, they’ll have to stand up against it.

    [1] It’s been written that Steve Hilton argued that huge benefit cuts would be popular with the public – but I suspect, like cuts in general, they’ll be popular until they reveal the devil in the details.
    The way ‘welfare’ is portrayed by governments and the press is that it’s largely unemployment benefits, which actually makes up a tiny percentage of them. A £53bn (if it does go ahead) cut would mean a massive hit to pensioners (already gaining a large pension increase, so unlikely), the disabled (already over £2bn cuts proposed), working people or families (and we saw how unpopular child benefit changes were with Tory voters).

  31. @SoCal

    I am indeed a student of History, though my specialty is political history (political science without the contrived numbers). May 1st 1993, International Workers Day. I try to take it as a sign of some sort.

  32. AMERICAN BYSTANDER.
    Good Morning.
    May 1st is the Feast Day of St Joseph the Worker, if you like that type of ‘opium’

  33. I do not, Jewish Secularist.

  34. RAF .

    errr…

    Ed Balls Keble. Oxford
    Mrs. B Balliol Oxford
    Rachel Reeves. New College Oxford
    Stephen Twigg. Balliol Oxford.
    Angela Eagle. St. Johns Oxford.
    Maria Eagle. Pembroke Oxford

    …………..

    Not so much Oxbridge as Ox.

    “Connecting with ordinary people” ?

    :-) :-) :-)

  35. Good Morning again all.
    The article by Rachel Sylvester in THE TIMES yesterday is worth a read on current politics

  36. @Colin

    “So when does EM get the chop then?
    He graduated from Corpus Christi College, Oxford .
    You lefties are so funny ”

    That’s a bit yah-boo, isn’t it? I don’t think anybody was arguing that an Oxbridge education should debar you from high office, especially if your route there wasn’t via the well trodden and well oiled conveyor belt from a leading public school (Miliband was state educated, by the way), but surely it’s good to see politicians from clearly working class backgrounds coming to the fore, whatever party they belong to. Jon Cruddas has that background and, while that doesn’t make him per se a great politician, it does make Parliament a better and more representative place.

    That’s a decent and serious point to make, isn’t it?

    And yes, I know, before we descend into petty party political point-scoring (it’s started already, I see) there are Labour politicians who have been to public school and/or Oxbridge.

  37. Robin, you quote

    “We will do precisely what the British nation has done all through its history when it had its back to the wall — turn round and fight for the things it believes in, and that is what I shall do”

    Made me smile!

    The flaw as you imply is that if your back is to the wall, turning round is not going to give yourself the best chance of fighting – in fact Major proceeded to bash his head against the wall until realisng too late that he was being attacked from behind.

  38. John TT

    “Made me smile!
    The flaw as you imply is that if your back is to the wall, turning round is not going to give yourself the best chance of fighting – in fact Major proceeded to bash his head against the wall until realisng too late that he was being attacked from behind.”

    Vintage Major! His Pooter-esque quotations are a joy to behold in retrospect but they were rather less amusing when he was in charge of our affairs!

  39. Welcome news on unemployment.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18084679

  40. @Colin

    Damn, we need to get some Bridge in to that for balance. Also some science people. Too many politicians without the most basic scientific understanding.

  41. CLOUD SPOTTER,

    Good news in Scotland too, 10,000 of the 45,000 drop were up here and we are now back to the UK average.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-18085407

    Peter.

  42. @Cloud spotter

    Don’t get too excited. The margins of error in these figures are huge. For all we know, it could have gone up. This is a good explanation why:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/aug/19/bad-science-unemployment-statistical-noise

    (I’ve tried accessing the margin of error from the ONS site, but couldn’t find it.)

  43. @ Chris Lane

    The Tories would really be in trouble if Labour started to win in Bournemouth. But is there a chance that Labour could replace the Lib Dems in second place ?

  44. @CHRISLANE1945

    “By the way I think the VI for the LD’s on YG seems a little too high?”

    I chuckle every time I read it, but I think you will get in trouble with Mr. AW, on the naughty step for you.

    “I stll think it is far too early to claim defeat or victory in the gE of 2015. City scored twice in the injury time period.”

    Interesting article from Peter Kellner, saying that a Tory victory is the most likely outcome in 2015:

    Miliband overtakes Cameron

  45. @Gary Gatter

    “Interesting article from Peter Kellner, saying that a Tory victory is the most likely outcome in 2015:”

    No, he just says that that is what he thinks will happen. Except that goes completely against everything else in the article.

  46. @ROBIN

    I tend to agree with your analysis of the article.

  47. @Tinged Fringe

    It wasn’t actually leaked, the changes had already been published, it’s just that the press hadn’t given it their attention.

    And yes, Blind people get the brunt of the cuts here. It used to be that clinical blindness resulted in an automatic mobility and care allocation, because it’s patently obvious that you need to spend a lot more on things to help when you’re blind.

    The ideological choice that you shouldn’t get payments based on condition, but on ‘what you can do’ means that this automatic assessment has been removed. Further, the tests made are very very specific. Cooking has been reduced to ‘heating food above waist level’, and walking has been defined as across an empty level space with no obstacles at all. It is entirely possible for someone completely blind to be assessed as not having any ‘needs’ under the new test.

    And even if they do, they will then be subject to the same test once a year for life, just to check if they’ve regained their sight.

  48. Peter Kellner may think that, but I think we won’t get anywhere near 2015 before an election and Labour will win with a big majority.

    Perfect storm brewing of levinson, cuts, austerity and no growth and borders, with aa large dose of unfairness mixed in.

    Labour in next May.

  49. Very pleasing news with regards to unemployment, If we can get a few more good news stories like these it will then become interesting to see any effect on VI

    If no movement is seen, well then we are in trouble.

  50. @Bluebob
    “Very pleasing news with regards to unemployment, If we can get a few more good news stories like these it will then become interesting to see any effect on VI”

    I guess Mervyn King’s latest forecasts will disappoint you:

    h ttp://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-2145194/Bank-England-admits-inflation-overshoot-year-so.html

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