Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor poll is now out in the Evening Standard (which seems to have become its new home after living at Reuters for 18 months or so). Topline figures, with changes from last month, are CON 33%(-2), LAB 43%(+5), LDEM 9%(-3).

It’s a big shift towards Labour, but this is probably something of a reversion to the mean after a bit of an outlier last month when MORI showed a much smaller Labour lead than most other companies. The 9 points for the Lib Dems is the lowest that MORI have shown for a year.


279 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 33, LAB 43, LDEM 9”

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  1. first this time?

  2. All this, and the Brookses in fron of the Beak.

  3. Will there be an Angus Reid this month?

    They might lead the way again, and show Con heading down towards the mid-twenties %. ;)

    More seriously, they have not shown Con above 35% in this parliament, usually in the low thirties and a 29% recently.

    Before the 2010 GE they were generally underestimating Con by a percentage point or two, underestimating Labour by a wider margin, and overestimating LDs.
    They were very close on April 12th though: Con 38%, Lab 28%, LD 22%.

  4. Tens have definitely replaced Fives.

    Its a step change.

    Is it soft-or soggy-or hard-or completely meaningless?

    Who knows?

    :-)

  5. I’m the first!

    The first, that is, to point out that being first to post is a bit silly. The lib dems are surely gonners come 2015, or, before (I hope)

  6. The only poll that carries real weight is the one carried out at the ballot box, and thats a long way off. Unless of course the Brookses reveal where some embarassing bodies are buried, and Cameron is forced to resign.

    I think that would trigger an election.

  7. Futher confirmation of the decline of C, the rise of L and demise / irrelevance of LD.
    ……….

    Hackgate, and the NI bid for BSktb will dog DC and this gov for many more months to come. I doubt DC will ever be free of it.

    Indeed, I am increasingly convinced it will be his downfall. The Con party may not want to lose their leader and PM, but IMO public anger over BSkyB (mixed with anger over so many otther issues) will compel this to occur. The upside of a change of leader is a boost in VI.

    We shall see.

  8. MARTIN.

    The charge relates to hiding stuff from The Met so far as I can understand it.

    I don’t see any potential for a DC resignation there.

    But it certainly plays into the criticisms around the friendship.

    DC must wish he could be as relaxed as Blairite Sally Morgan was on this morning’s DP-dismissing any suggestion that there was anything “inappropriate” about the contact between Blair & NI , with a self confident inclination of the Baronial head.

  9. @”public anger over BSkyB”

    Is there “public anger” over BskyB?

    Does the public care whether RM owns a part of it , or all of it?

    Aren’t they just pleased he invented it , and sunk a load of money into it, so they can all subscribe to the hundreds of TV Channels they think they need ?

  10. On a related issue, am I the only person who thinks the current bloated valuation of premier league football is unsustainable?

    What would happen if Sky money evaporated?

  11. People should be banned for this ‘first’ rubbish.

  12. @Colin

    RM “Invented” BSkyB? What a delightful reinventing of history.

  13. NICKP

    @”What would happen if Sky money evaporated?”

    The crazy wages would evaporate.

    The Big Money ownership would dwindle.

    The foreign super stars would drift to some other trough.

    UK football clubs would return to low cost local outfits , relying on home grown talent.

    No more International Brigades masquerading as “British” in European Competitions.

    A simpler , more wholesome game.

    UK football club supporters would love that……..wouldn’t they :-)

  14. Looking at Chelsea, Manchester City, Glasgow Rangers, Real Madrid etc etc they remind me of the banks pre-crash. Massively in debt, in denial and dependent upon illusory funds.

  15. JAYBLANC

    Without RM’s vision , money & determination it would have failed.

    Ditto The Times newspaper.

  16. Given the rise of YouTube and the likes, just how long can conventional TV hold on to things like exclusive football rights.

    It’s not just that their are other ways to watch football, it’s that there are possibly more under 25’s in the UK playing World of Warcraft than paying to go through a turn style on a Saturday.

    In terms of gate money clubs aren’t sustainable, so the game becomes more and more about TV money, but on TV it has to compete with everything else and that is getting harder and harder as the viewing market fragments.

    Add to that the new rules on financial stability for European Clubs and I think something will have to give.

    I’d give the current football model less than 10 years.

    Peter.

  17. @NickP

    There are signs of trouble ahead for advertising subsidised Pay-TV networks, particularly the ones that do not produce their own content. People are looking at how much it costs for a twelve month subscription to Pay-TV, vs how much it costs to buy the shows they watch on iTunes, or wait till they’re on rental/netflix… Hence why SkyTV is pushing the side benefits of subscription like SkyGo.

    Outrage at Murdoch does give a little bit extra push to cancel the subscription.

  18. @Colin

    RM’s vision , money & determination were backing late-comer Sky. And both BSB and Sky were failing, till they merged to create a monopoly.

  19. The laptop bag (as well as some box files which went missing from NoW) seems key to this. The fact that Charlie Brooks tried to claim the dumped bag as his own probably explains why he is also in the dock.

    If there is anything more along the lines of Hunt’s appeal for a steer as to how the goverment should position itself wrt the hacking scandal and BSkyB it would be explosive.

    Leveson was obviously uncomfortable about certain aspects of the questioning of Brooks by the counsel to the Inquiry when it touched on communications (direct and indirect) between her and the PM. Jay says “everyone wants to know”, Leveson asks “Why?”… but he stopped short of overruling Jay on that occasion.

  20. @Colin

    The crazy wages would evaporate.

    The Big Money ownership would dwindle.

    The foreign super stars would drift to some other trough.

    UK football clubs would return to low cost local outfits , relying on home grown talent.

    No more International Brigades masquerading as “British” in European Competitions.

    A simpler , more wholesome game.

    UK football club supporters would love that……..wouldn’t they :-)

    —–

    YES !!!!!

    Sky has spoiled the game.

  21. Beeb24
    Lord Justice Leveson about to make “significant statement”

  22. @Colin – “DC must wish he could be as relaxed as Blairite Sally Morgan was on this morning’s DP-dismissing any suggestion that there was anything “inappropriate” about the contact between Blair & NI , with a self confident inclination of the Baronial head.”

    John Rentoul posted a fascinating article about Blair and Murdoch a few weeks ago, and very effectively debunked the myth about Blair scrambling for Murdoch support.

    He actually copied a transcript of the speech Blair gave to News Corp executives when he ‘flew half way round the world’ to meet them in Australia, and it was informative stuff. He basically disagreed with Murdoch on many big issues and told him so to his face.

    New Labour’s words were also matched on several notable occasions by their actions, with a steadfast refusal to undermine the BBC and a number of other regulatory decisions that were totally counter to what Murdoch wanted.

    I’m no friend of Blair, Campbell and New Labour, but I have to admit that, when examined in terms of actual government policy, the argument that Blair cosied up to Murdoch and the two exchanged favours really doesn’t stack up.

    Indeed, the contrast with what is constantly coming out of the Tory party is staggering. Only this morning we have Boris arguing for a Tory to head the BBC – an inept and completely counter productive politicisation of an executive process. Witness also Cameron’s specific highlighting of Ofcom as a quango that needs to be scrapped – a sentiment derided completely within the industry except at NI HQ, and one thankfully where Cameron has been unable to proceed.

    There is absolutely no question that the Tory party has an ideological stance that supports NI and joins with them in attacking their opponents. Interesting that Gus O’Donnell was damning at Leveson on Hunt’s briefing of NI, even if it was only on process, stating clearly that all interested parties should have received the same briefing.

    It’s an established defence of all parties found to be at fault in any way to attempt to claim that all parties are equally culpable, but I’m afraid in this case the Tories really do have a problem with Murdoch.

  23. Colin
    @”public anger over BSkyB”
    Is there “public anger” over BskyB?
    Does the public care whether RM owns a part of it , or all of it?

    ……………….

    On reflection I was economical with words. I meant the possibility that the Con party reached some kind of accord with NI over BSkyB in return for the political support of NI media.

    Let’s speculate….[snip…]

  24. Leveson effectively giving Hunt another two weeks in position by threatening not to use evidence in the inquiry if it has previously been exposed to parliament. Thus it would seem that any evidence against Hunt will remain secret for another couple of weeks

  25. @alec

    You said “…In the UK we do indeed have rich and poor regions, locked together with a single interest rate. This is clearly not sensible, unless there are compensating capital flows from the wealthy tax paying regions to the poor benefit recipient region to cover things like welfare bills and investment. This is the only way that a currency system can operate…Within the EZ, this doesn’t happen, which is why we have a problem. There is some ability for states to alter their fiscal policies in the EZ which can’t happen here (except in Scotland) but even here the EU has established rules on VAT and wants to harmonize tax regimes, creating even less flexibility to allow imbalances to be ironed out…It’s time to accept that the Euro is a completely defective currency in it’s current form, and it either needs to be abandoned or move towards a single state…”

    Hmmm. There is EU capability to move money around (various structural funds and wotnot), but that doesn’t actually contradict your point. My point is that the currency flows you describe are required to reduce the probability that a subgroup will bud off and create its own rules (such as “create another currency”). But there are other ways to do this: people mobility for example (famously, the United States does not allow South Dakota to leave the Union, it allows people to leave South Dakota). So it may be that a single state is desirable for a single currency, but not necessary.

    On an associated point, the news media and chatterati have all coalesced around the proposition that a Grexit is inevitable and will happen within months. My prediction that Germany and Greece will still be in the Euro on January 1 2014 remains in place (as previously discussed with Roland, I’m not including Spain in this… :-) ). Where do you stand on this? Greece still in the Euro by end of 2012: yes or no?

    Regards, Martyn
    (not “Martin”: that’s somebody different)

  26. @Colin/Alec

    My take on New Labour/Blair’s relationship with NI, and Murdoch in particular, was that it was much more to do with neutralising the hostility of his newspapers rather than any obvious attempt to elicit Thatcheresque levels of loyalty and support from him. The Old Digger is undoubtedly a man of the Right but can, on occasions, be persuaded to endorse politicians of a different complexion if he senses that they are on an inevitable path to power. That way he can moderate any possible antagonism to his business interests from whoever is likely to be governing. I think he probably personally liked Blair too, but his political endorsement of Labour was always a lukewarm one and very much Blair-centric anyway, rapidly withdrawn by his son when it was obvious that the much more ideologically compatible Conservatives were on the way back to power circa 2009.

    We shouldn’t understimate Labour’s shock defeat in 1992 from all this either. The “It was the Sun Wot Won It” headline traumatised the New Labour cadre being weaned by Brown and Mandelson at the time and convinced them that the Sun had to be got on board if a Labour win was ever likely. I think this was overplayed but Murdoch loved to encourage the Kingmaker myth and Blair did, sadly, go a little overboard in courting the Murdoch dynasty from 1994 onwards. That said, I don’t get the sense from Leveson thus far that skeltons are rattling in New Labour cupboards.

  27. Can Germany force other countries out of the euro? One would think not. Can Germany, itself, leave the euro? Who knows? Germany seem now to be isolated & Merkel is facing criticism for the market impact of trying to call Greece’s bluff.

    So, who will break? Germany? Greece? The banks/ ‘market’? Will the IMF step in? What would be the political impact of the UK helping to finance a major bail-out of the euro whilst promoting austerity in the UK?
    8-)

  28. Ladies and gentlemen, The Godlike Paul Mason

    Regards, Martyn

  29. “Let’s speculate”

    Let’s NOT speculate. Previous experience has taught us that this is not a subject that’s conducive to good mannered, sane, non-partisan discussion, so please keep off exchanging views on it. I think we are all already very well aware of each others views.

  30. Labour GLA list vote beat Lib Dems in Sarah Teather’s Brent Central 59% to 9%.

    Nice!

    I predict that the diminutive Teather will be looking for a new career after the next GE.

  31. More problems for the government.

    The Information Commissioner has strongly critisised Lansley’s decision to refuse to make public the risk register relating to the NHS reforms.

  32. Rule I’ve learned about scandals: Never assume an ouster up top until the press conference is called. It is very hard to do that but if Reagan survived Contra, Clinton survived Lewinski and Thatcher survived Westland, Cameron can probably survive Hackgate. The way these things turn out is completely unpredictable and man is by nature creative, so sensationalist ideas of future developments come easier than they do in reality. What political junkie doesn’t like to create stories of massive scandal in their head?

    However, that being considered, the overly creative amongst the Tories may use their imagination, which could be bad for the Tories in terms of VI.

  33. The Revenge of the Pasty Eating Grannies thats what you get when you mess with the power of grey, die Coalition die.

  34. “Revenge of the Pasty Eating Grannies”
    ———————
    LOL – sounds like an old low budget B movie. Which channel is it on ?

  35. @ American ByStander

    Reagan survived Contra, Clinton survived Lewinski and Thatcher survived Westland, Cameron can probably survive Hackgate.
    ————————————-
    Reagan, I cannot be certain about but the Democratic Party did not survive Lewinski. That scandal, IMO, was a major contributor to GWB winning. Thatcher did not really survive Westland. It was the beginning of the end for her.

    David Cameron may survive ‘hackgate’; I think that, similar to Clinton/Lewinski, his Party may not.
    8-)

  36. “Revenge of the Pasty Eating Grannies”

    Wasn’t that one of Michael Winner’s old films in which Charles Bronson played his one and only transvestite role?

  37. Ipsos-MORI Political Monitor article is here:

    http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/2965/Ipsos-MORI-Political-Monitor-May-2012.aspx

    There are links to the topline results which show the party breakdown as:

    Con 32 (33)
    Lab 43 (43)
    L/D 9 ( 9)
    Nat 4 ( 5)
    Grn 5 ( 3)
    UKIP 6 ( 6)
    BNP 1 ( 1)
    Oth 1 ( 1)

    Non-Voters 20%

    Figures in brackets are those only certain to vote, which MORI bases its headline figure on – though it does reduce the same to 574 from around 800. As you can see it doesn’t make much difference except to the Greens. That may reflect the fact that they don’t put up candidates in many constituencies.

    There’s also links to the full tables, the rather pointless infographic and the always fun charts with their performances over time.

  38. @david

    You said “…die Coalition die…”

    Erm, no, that only works if “Coalition” is a singular femininine noun. But it’s a collective noun and hence singular and neuter (so it should be “das Coalition”) or even masculine (“der Coalition”). Incidentally, if we were conducting this conversation in German, you would be right but misspelt (“die Koalition”). So go away and write out “das Coalition das” a hundred times.

    Of course, there is a teeny possibility that you were making a partisan point on a nonpartisan site. But you wouldn’t do that, now would you… :-)

    Ave, Martyn

  39. Oops it’s the sample that is reduced not the same. And when I said that the Greens “don’t put up candidates in many constituencies” I meant there are many constituencies in which they don’t stand, as opposed to that they don’t stand in many at all.[1] Good old ambiguous English. My point was that potential voters might be aware they would not get the chance.

    [1] 310 in 2010 for 650 seats, as opposed to 572 UKIP candidates for example.

  40. From the previous thread.

    Anthony Wells

    “I’d have several comments here (and seen countless similar comments on Twitter) asking why, if the Lib Dems got 16% in the local elections this month none of the polls show them with that level of support. They normally proceed to conclude that the polls are wrong.

    As I’d said several times here before, people vote differently in local elections than they do in general elections, so polls asking how people would vote in a general election are not a good guide to how they would vote in a local election (and conversely, how people vote in a local election is not necessarily a good guide to how they would vote in a general election).”
    ___________

    Any chance you can educate the leader of Scottish Labour on this? She is bouncing about Scotland claiming that the SNP support has fallen 12% since the Scottish general election but as you have rightly pointed out people do vote differently in different elections.
    Cheers… ;)

  41. @Martyn

    We know who you are, but we don’t know where you live. ;)

  42. @Amber Star

    Is that how the British media portrayed the 2000 election and the Lewinski Affair? The problem was Gore’s stupid environmental proposals that traditional rust belt blue states weren’t ready for. That and his miserable charisma.

    As a Democrat, I’m all for going green, but I’ll never forgive Gore for permanently losing us Kentucky and West Virginia and turning Ohio into a swing state which it didn’t need to be. Heck, Gore even lost his home state of Tennessee. Clinton’s approvals were unhurt by the Lewinski scandal and all it did was made Gingrich look pathetic.

    Besides, people always knew about Clinton’s scandals while he was Governor of Arkansas which were way worse.

  43. @ Martyn

    Ladies and gentlemen, The Godlike Paul Mason
    —————–
    Ha! We have the awesome Virgilio who has already given us a heads up about Greek politics & Parties.

    Paul Mason was an interesting read though, thanks for the link.
    :-)

  44. @ American ByStander.

    Thank you; my perception was that Clinton had tarnished the ‘honesty’ of the Democrats with evasions, half-truths & – some might say – downright lies. Not having a popular, ‘honest Joe’ president endorsing Gore cost him, & his Party, the relatively small number of votes which would’ve been needed for a Democratic victory.
    8-)

  45. I got moderated but I don’t think I was making a partisan point.

    I’ll try again as neutrally as I can.

    It doesn’t really matter if the conspiracy theory is proven or not, it can’t be disproved.

    So what matters is how many people believe (or strongly suspect) that inappropriate help was given to Murdoch’s bid, and of course how that belief affects voting intention.

    It isn’t a criminal trial where the burden of proof is on the prosecution. The defendent doesn’t have to be hanged to be found guilty.

  46. @Roger Mexico – “Figures in brackets are those only certain to vote”

    Might that point to a firming up of Labour’s VI? Recently the certain to vote filter has more often than not had the effect of cutting the Labour lead significantly, by both droppng Lab and upping Con VI by a percentage point or two.

  47. Anyway the MORI charts show that for the first time Miliband is above Cameron in satisfaction (34 over 32) and he is lead in net satisfaction increases as he’s up +2 to -16. Both Cameron (-8 to -28) and Clegg (-8 to -39). Government approval is -41 similar to YouGov’s (though YouGov always gets more DKs).

    The Conservatives are still ahead on the Economy, but only just by 31% to 30%. This is a drop from +10 in September, but perhaps not as disasterous as you might expect from VI changes over the same period. (Interestingly 11% said ‘Other’ to this question).

    44% think the Lib Dems do not have enough influence in the Government (including 63% of Labour voters and even 19% of Conservative ones), only 14% too much (and only 23% of Tories).

    Still Cameron has one consolation. He’s now been in power for a couple on months longer than John Major was when he hit Black Wednesday. From now there’s always someone he’ll be ahead of.

  48. I’ve just read Lord Leveson’s statement of today. And I can understand his concerns etc. On the other hand, there is the issue of Parliament’s supremacy.

    Fascinating stuff..albeit of little if any relevance to polls.

  49. Clinton tarnished the Democrats when he first became the front runner for the nomination surpassing popular, likeable, yet mad as a hatter Bob Kerrey and Fiscally Right Wing cancer ridden Paul Tsongas. The establishment tried like heck to get Gov. Mario Cuomo of New York (Really the Italian Kennedy) but he didn’t want a part of it.

    Whitewater was in full force, as was Bill’s Gennifer Flowers Affair, as was the money funnelling into Hillary’s executive affairs (Wal-Mart and her law firm) there was also that incident where a lawyer’s husband came up to Bill during a rally and accused him of raping his wife back in 1979.

    I really recommend Christopher Hitchens’ “No One Left to Lie to” for a full detailing of what supposedly happened, this was written when he was still a member of left-wing circles.

    Also, the Democrats have never really had much of a reputation for integrity. As a Straight-Ticket voting Democrat I can say that, the union associations have made us look merely like corrupt populists of the lowest common denominator even if it isn’t true. (I’m one of those who holds the union associations as sacred, but many will never understand.)

  50. I’m not having a good afternoon. That first paragraph again:

    Anyway the MORI charts show that for the first time Miliband is above Cameron in absolute satisfaction (34% to 32%) and he is lead in ‘net satisfaction’ increased too as he’s up 2 to -16. Both Cameron (-8 to -28) and Clegg (-8 to -39) fall. Government approval is -41 similar to YouGov’s (though YouGov always gets more DKs).

    Billy Bob

    There is still some advantage to the Conservatives though not as much as you would normally expect. It could be Tories getting less enthusiastic too, but you’d have to work the figures through over various months to find out.

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