Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor poll is now out in the Evening Standard (which seems to have become its new home after living at Reuters for 18 months or so). Topline figures, with changes from last month, are CON 33%(-2), LAB 43%(+5), LDEM 9%(-3).

It’s a big shift towards Labour, but this is probably something of a reversion to the mean after a bit of an outlier last month when MORI showed a much smaller Labour lead than most other companies. The 9 points for the Lib Dems is the lowest that MORI have shown for a year.


279 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 33, LAB 43, LDEM 9”

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  1. I was merely reporting what, as a result of extensive readings, the northern states think.

    What you think is up to you, I think that voters in the UK will think that anything that affects them adversely will be down to bl**dy foreigners and the news media will simply reinforce this.

    What we here do has apparently no influence, unless the foreign economies pick up in a few years. Then their relative better wealth will be all their fault, probably due to when the French banned our beef after foot and mouth (think other explanations to suit your own insular tendencies).

    remember the veto bounce?

  2. See http://politicalbetting.com/

    Camerons rating on Mori poll, is worse than Browns.

    What are the chances of a leadership contest within the next 12 months ?

    Would Philip Hammond be a good choice ?

  3. @ American Bystander

    “I am indeed a student of History, though my specialty is political history (political science without the contrived numbers). May 1st 1993, International Workers Day. I try to take it as a sign of some sort.”

    Interesting. History was the only subject I was really good at in high school (I was terrible at everything else except for foreign languages). I wound up minoring in it in college. It’s a lot more useful than people actually realize or give it the credit for. If you know history and can understand history, you are that much more likely to understand the present. And a lot of the skills you gain by studying history actually present themselves in other fields. Think about what a judge or a justice has to do when they have a court case that hinges on interpreting a statute. That’s going to require knowing what the common law was and the legislative history. So it’s a valuable skill. I find politics is the one area of my life where my math skills seem to come together (normally they’re not that good).

    Is this year going to be your first election?

  4. Please can you show UKIP result for every polling report, not just when they are above the lib dems. Thank you

  5. @ Colin

    “We hear a lot about Bank losses-but not so much about the people bearing them-the shareholders.

    Not all are large institutional investors.”

    That’s why I support all the bailouts of large financial institutions. Because as angry as people might be at the leaders of these organizations, allowing many of these institutions to fail would destroy lots of small investors and shareholders.

  6. @R Huckle

    He was my candidate for next chancellor, if for some reason Osborne had to go.

    I did speculate that Hammond could follow the John Major route to the top: three months as foreign sec (read defence) then chancellor, then PM… but the schedule has slipped a bit.

  7. R HUCKLE

    @”Would Philip Hammond be a good choice ?”

    I hope the question is never asked in unfortunate circumstances.

    But if it has to be asked, my answer would be- absolutely.

  8. I think David Davis would be a far better choice for PM…Hammond could be an interim PM…A bean counter does not a great leader make.

  9. Good Evening all.
    I think the Cons and the L.Dems will stick together under DC and NC. Then I think in 2014 they will separate in time for party conferences.

    I then think the GE result could well be as close as the 1910 and Feb 1974 result.

  10. @R Huckle – “What are the chances of a leadership contest within the next 12 months ?”

    Very little, by the look of it. The 1922 elections have resulted in 11 of 12 committee places going to the ‘301’ group of Cameroon loyalists, with only one significant failure. These are the 2010 intake who have effectively organised to oust the old guard, although their victory hasn’t come without causing a deal of friction with traditionalists. It’s actually a pretty solid triumph for Cameron and Osborne, although there is already talk of an alternative group of traditionalists being established, and it does accentuate the deep splits within Tory ranks – far deeper, I suspect, than in Lib Dem or Labour ranks.

  11. I don’t buy the idea that NI could lead to an early election. It certainly could bring individuals down – e.g. Cameron could end up resigning. But there would be a new leader to carry on the coalition.

  12. In previous emails I outlined the methods by which the Euro could break up. I gave them whimsical names, based on who I heard from them first, to wit:

    * The “Douglas Carswell”: Germany evicts Greece directly somehow
    * The “Stephanie Flanders”: withdrawals from Greek banks force a ECB recapitalisation, which is refused
    * The “Open Europe”: Greece prints Euros (it can do this) directly, superboosting inflation and initiating collapse
    * The “Roger Bootle”: Greece cannot sell Euro-denominated bonds at any price, forcing a new currency
    * The “Wolfgang Schauble”: Greece nonconsensually defaults so all aid is withdrawn, forcing insolvency

    Up until a few days ago, four of them were still safe, leaving only the fifth (“Schauble”) as a possibility. I figured that Tsipras would back down once the rest of the EU went all Kray twin on his bottom, so things were still safe. Unfortunately, he now seems to be retreating into blame (“playing poker with people’s lives”) and, since blame is what you do when you stop seeking solutions, the “Schauble” may actually happen.

    However, a more pressing one occurs. Although it is usually thought that only fools still have deposits in Greek banks, interestingly ~70% of 2009 deposits are still there and haven’t been moved. But if the latest articles in the FT and The Godlike Paul Mason are true, and withdrawals from Greek banks are now larger and accelerating, then the “Flanders” will come into effect. Given that Greece has a caretaker government until the elections, there is nobody in power to impose a corralito to prevent this.

    So there is a mechanism to trip multiple Greek bank insolvency, it’s in progress, it’s accelerating, and nobody is stopping it… :-(

    Regards, Martyn

  13. Nah, hardly.

    If Cameron has to quit, Osborne would certainly have to go too. And the other Murdochians, Gove et al would definitely be doomed.

    It would be like a house of cards, which is why they are hanging on to Hunt as long as possible.

    If Cameron goes because of News International, the clear out would leave nobody much in cabinet.

  14. Colin,

    Yes Iceland is a relative success compared to Ireland and Latvia. It seems this is due to

    a) not bailing out the banks

    b) not being in the euro

  15. @Colin – the Iceland experience is indeed interesting. The Eurozone crisis has been typified by an insistence on giving lenders total protection and denying the benefits of devaluations.

    Many nations have been through currency crashes and many have left currency unions. It isn’t painless by any stretch of the imagination, but default and devaluation means that you can start the process of rebuilding, with the pain having some eventual benefit. It invariably seems that the predictions of doom that people make before these events always seems to be overdone, and states can actually recovery surprisingly quickly.

  16. SDP style break-away from the Conservatives? Then combine with UKIP? They could be looking at 20% – 25% VI within 6 months; it could easily be enough to give them the balance of power in a coalition by 2015.
    8-)

  17. Martyn,

    If Greece prints enough euros it could provide the boost in demand and the inflation required to get the whole of Europe back into growth. Interesting solution to the entire problem… a bank run as the only way to Keynsian stimulus!

    I wonder if there are any limits?

  18. @Martyn – is this the first hint that you might be wrong in your assertions that Greece will remain in the Euro?

    Interestingly, the Telegraph is reporting that the ECB has withdrawn support from some Greek banks as they have insufficient collateral to swap for credit.

    This really does feel like a run of Greek banks, and once that starts, either the EZ has to change the rules or Greece has to print money.

  19. Sun/YouGov poll tonight: Another joint record Labour lead of 14 points, the 2nd in a week. CON 31%, LAB 45%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 8%.

  20. LIZH.
    At the risk of you spilling the chablis due to giggles….

    Are the LD figures too high do you think?

  21. Latest YouGov/The Sun results 16th May CON 31%, LAB 45%, LD 9%; APP -37

  22. “Sun/YouGov poll tonight: Another joint record Labour lead of 14 points, the 2nd in a week. CON 31%, LAB 45%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 8%.”

    What a recovery for the Lib Dems! They’ve seen off UKIP and have now got the Tories in their sights.

    Old Cleggy’s on to something, you know, with this fairness agenda thing.

  23. LD surge back into 3rd.

  24. @Chrislane1945 – there’s something about Lizh giggling with a glass of chablis that turns me on. Do keep it up.

  25. New thread alert.

  26. @Hal

    Yes Greece can do print Euros: Ireland did it sotto voce for a bit in (I think) early 2011. But we know there are dangers with one country in a currency union printing money uncontrollably, because when Russia did it in the 90’s…the rouble zone broke up.

    Regards, Martyn

  27. @Alec

    Yes, it is. I post here as kind of a three-finger exercise because the practice is good. Since you are not my clients, I have no formal obligation towards you, so I could just sit here and fib like a good ‘un if I liked.

    However, I am bound by a code of conduct in my day job and I like to think that it carries over to my time off. One of those constraints is that I timely inform you if there are errors or omissions in my advice to you.

    My prior advice was valid because (as explained) no mechanism leading to a Euro exit was ongoing, and this held me in good stead. And I still hope wiser heads will prevail before the “Schauble” is invoked. But (as explained) it now appears that the “Flanders” is in progress and unchecked. Since that can lead to an uncontrolled default, I am obliged to inform you. Hence that post.

    Regards, Martyn

  28. @Martyn – appreciate the post. I have no professional involvement at all in anything to do with finance, but I tend to look at the logical outcomes as I see them.

    I’m just watching the German Deputy Finance Minister on Newsnight answering Paxman’s question’s about whether Greece will stay in the EZ. He insists they will, but his eyes are flicking over the place, and any behavioral analysis would clearly conclude that he doesn’t believe what he’s saying.

    Unless the Germans move, it’s all over for Greece.

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