Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 45%, UKIP 8%, LDEM 7%. The 14 point lead is the biggest Labour lead YouGov has ever shown since starting regular polling in 2002 (though other companies showed a lead of that size back in 2003).

While the size of the lead is notable, it’s not entirely surprising. Since the local election results YouGov have been showing an average Labour lead of 12 points or so… hence a 14 point lead is just as much in line with that as the 10 point lead last Thursday was.


152 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 31, LAB 45, UKIP 8, LDEM 7”

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  1. first

  2. This is a definite firming of labour’s advantage…interesting times

    J

  3. While the numbers may or may not be accurate if there was a GE (probably not) I do think it shows Labour have broken through as a credible party of government again, with Ed as a credible PM
    There is a long way to go and there will be many changes but I think we (Labour) are in with a real chance in 2015.

  4. First ?

    @RAF (9.48) previous thread)

    The final vote for the leadership was Clegg vs Hune. Surprised you did not vote for Hune who was the left of the two candidates. If he had won. I doubt the LDs would have gone into coallition with the Tories and therfore would not be in the current situation (tonight’s poll) of being behind UKIP.

  5. LibDem on 7% again…..
    :-)

  6. http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/w0iqjfmpa9/YG-Archives-Pol-Sun-results-140512.pdf

    40-59 age group

    Labour 54%
    Tory 26%
    LD 6%

    I can see Labours lead growing a bit more.

  7. Sorry, Hune = Huhne

    also didn’t make first.

  8. Lab ahead on the economy.

  9. Other Jim

    ‘….labour’s advantage…interesting times’

    AARGH!!!

  10. For the government it starts to look like ‘Black Wednesday’ rather than ‘mid-term blues’ — if Labour maintain >45%, and Con start to fall below 30% — not quite there yet.

    :-)

  11. I agree with R H

    It’s tax credits (withdrawal thereof)

    and other measures affecting personal income
    especially affecting age group R H cited

  12. ‘There is a tide in the affairs of men….’

    This is much as Anthony says at one end of a scale of around at lead of 10% +…. I don’t think anyone will worry too much on the coalition benches. At the moment they will see this as part of the knee-jerk pull after the local elections.

    That said…it now begins to look like Europe may pull us yet deeper into a recession and each period where we grow more slowly the narrative of the government becomes more difficult.

    The scepticism that met Mr Lansley is very particular – but if it spreads wider then the government will be in real trouble.

    The LibDems may get nervous only idf Labour starts to poll consistently over 45% and as yet that seems to me a long long way off…

    Meanwhile Europe isn’t anything we can do much about but that will not stop the voters from blaming the government. And if Europe stumbled UKIP is bound to rise…and that too is a danger for the conservative side of the coalition.

    Labour’s greatest danger would be to think they need do no more than watch…Ed is right about one thing…to win Labour needs a compelling new narrative of its own and that will be a painful process….it is for any party.

  13. if repeated at a GE

    lab would have a majority of 130

  14. Isn’t it time the LDs were put in the ‘other’ column? :)

    Obviously a good opinion poll for Labour, was thinking yesterday that the poll was very similar to 1997 bar the LDs of course.

    When will the inevitable polling swing-back occur? Can Labour grow their lead further. I seem to remember a Con 26 point lead in the last parliament?

  15. @NickP

    Arent they 1 point behind? Or have I read it wrong?

  16. @Anthony
    Why do I keep being placed into moderation?

  17. @ Nick P
    “lab ahead on the economy”

    How so? Weighted, the tories still lead labour by 1 point (28 to 27)

  18. Tonight’s YouGov -prediction using existing boundaries L/C/LD 394/216/15 +138
    with New Boundaries 368/203/6 +136

    New Boundaries = Lib Dem wipe out !! Do you think they will vote for this???

  19. I like the look of that 45 for Labour.

    The 14 point gap, I am not much excited about because it is all down to UKIP. I cannot see UKIP vote being at this kind of level in a GE. I’ll be everso happy, if I’m wrong about that; as a leftie, I’d obviously be delighted to see the right-wing voter split cost the right some seats. But a promise of an EU referendum will be made & UKIP voters will return to CON.
    8-)

  20. From observing polls and observing and campaigning in real elections (by- and this months locals) it seems to be becoming very clear that where there is a credible, alternative anti -tory pot in which to piss, then previous LD’s are choosing this option.
    For those of us who live in seats with a clear anti-tory majority, even where Labour is third this realisation is very heartening and exciting!

  21. Well now, most interesting,I wonder how the greens are doing. They are targeting the LibDem seats, Pity it’s only a poll and not a GE.. But cheering nonetheless … Plus Aston Villa’s reshuffle… :-)

  22. Unusually the men are more pro-Labour on this sample, more so if you take the Don’t Knows into account.

    Either it is an odd sample or there has been a big shift in male VI. Tomorrow will tell.

  23. @ Johnny & David Anthony

    Regarding the economy, you are reading the tables incorrectly. The figures in the grey column are from the last time the question was asked.

    Nick P is correct; in this poll, Labour are a point ahead on the economy in general.
    8-)

  24. If YouGov are sampling a moving target then maybe the LD and Tory fall together with the Labour rise may still have some way to go. As people are moving from the coalition to Labour/others/don’t know/wont vote, the sample may be at the lower edge or middle of the margin of error,

  25. Amber

    UKIP are at 8. That’s only 4 extra above the past.

    That only puts Con at 35. (some will actually go back to the other parties too).

    Con cannot win OM on 35 and Lab on 45.

  26. R Huckle

    “40-59 age group

    Labour 54%
    Tory 26%
    LD 6%

    I can see Labours lead growing a bit more”

    Crucial demographic cohort at the next GE IMHO- and currently rebelling against the Tories.

    Labour needs to give them some red meat of detailed policy so that these sorts of numbers are still holding 2-3 years from now (or whenever the next GE is).

  27. p.s. I can’t believe the LDs are behind UKIP.

  28. Earwiggle-Pam

    Are you the Pam I used to know? Hello if so, and good to know you are firing on all cylinders.

  29. … and UKIPs in this sample are concentrated in the North and the Rest of South, neither of which are crucial at the GE.

  30. @Johnny/David Anthony

    From second column, Lab 1 point ahead on economy in general. First (grey) column are last figures from May 10-11.

    “Weighted/Unweighted Sample” text refers to the number totals to the right, under the column headings

  31. @Amber

    Yes, I agree — Lab on 45%+ should be disturbing for the Government. Even more so if Con drop under 30% at the other end.
    :-)

  32. Howard – Yes, that’s me! Still have you to blame for my tactical vote! :-)

  33. Sorry Howard… smiles

    But I think it is… more and more pressure will build on the government and almost certainly they will try to respond.

    it is interesting reading topic headlines (LDV) corruption – we can do better… then under that… LDem reshuffle options- maybe bring back David Laws… don’t figure, it just seems well… wrong somehow.

    And no not taking the wet… just found it apt (interesting times)

    J

  34. Pam

    I still celebrate it. :-)

  35. Howard, still with Syzygy and Julian and Garry on Think-Left.org web site!! Hope you are well, Hooded has been on here too! we had some fun times across political divide!

  36. Evening All.
    Does You Gov exaggerate the Lib Dem VI?

    I cannot explain why there is so much anger with the Liberal Democrats. Can anyone do so please?

    Thanks very much

  37. I know this is probably entirely the wrong place to ask such a thing, but bear with me, I am a man under pressure (and did look for somewhere else to post it, honest). The pressure in question comes from my American girlfriend, who after breaking her ankle, now spends an inordinate amount of time on American political websites, i.e. Politifact, Drudge, and her favourite, RCP. Apparently, they have an average daily ticker for the polling for the eternally upcoming US Presidential elections, aggregating several different polling organisations and, unsurprisingly, averaging them. Anyway, the problem is I love polling and have been a staunch defender of the methods, so when my girlfriend starts declaring ‘polls are stupid’ and ‘do they just make polls up?’, I naturally rush into the aforementioned defending. The problem I have here though is I don’t know how to defend this point. Over the past week or so, there has been something odd happening that I can’t adequately explain, and so turn to those better positioned to refute, repudiate, and if necessary refudiate my girlfriend’s unwarranted assault on the verity of polling.

    At the moment, the difference between the two most extreme polls is 12 pts, which seems a lot to me, but it has been as high as 18 pts, with one organisation showing Obama at +9, and another showing Romney at +9. Is there some huge difference in methodology here that could create such a disparity? Mostly it seems to concern Rasmussen and Gallup (for Romney) versus everyone else (for Obama).

    Anyway, I hope you see this, respond tersely and informatively, and mend the Special Relationship (in my house).

    Thank you.

  38. Rumours in the Independent that EM will do his own reshuffle and bring back DM. If he does this from a position of strength, I think it would show really decisive leadership and confidence. Would be very brave, but I think a great move, if he gave him Shadow Treasury because it would give a chance to use the new breathing space to get a new hearing on the economy.

    DM & EM together would be trusted more than the very pro-Brown partnership of EM & EB. But would there be too many opportunities for “Brothers Divided” headlines???

  39. @ Amber Star

    Ahh thank you!

    In that case, when was the last time Lab were ahead on the economy? This could end up being the real news of this poll.

  40. @Amber
    “But a promise of an EU referendum will be made & UKIP voters will return to CON.”

    The last Labour leader before Blair to win a GE did so on the promise of an EEC referendum, subsequently kept. It caused the former Conservative MP of these parts to advocate a vote for Labour. Something for E Miliband to mull over.

  41. UK party leaders – “which of the following [positive] qualities do you think he has?”

    “None of these” : Cameron – 46% : Milliband 48% : Clegg 59%.

    Not much in the way of positivity towards these leaders, it seems.

  42. ChrisLane
    I cannot explain why there is so much anger with the Liberal Democrats. Can anyone do so please?

    Just ask Pam! :-)

  43. @Howard

    Seeing your return and your referring to what’s-his-name’s “Interesting times” nonsense, I’m reminded that we seem to be missing another Lib Dem: where did Richard in Norway go?

  44. Labour also leads on economy, education, taxation, employment and even on #EUROPE?

  45. @CHRISLANE1945
    “Does You Gov exaggerate the Lib Dem VI?”

    I giggle every time I read your post.

  46. @Chris Lane

    22% of those who voted LD in 2010 would repeat the act now.

  47. If six months ago you’d have told me that Labour would be on 45% in any poll I would have laughed in your face. So much for those who’ve compared Ed.M. to IDS, if the Tories had polled 45% do you think he’d have been knifed?

  48. All this talk of UKIP voters switching back to the Tories at the GE to stop Labour is nonsense. UKIP are intending to field many more candidates in both local and national elections. They have also broadened out their policies, so they are not just the anti-EU party.

    In tonights poll, the Tories and Labour are neck and neck in regard to the way voters see them on Europe. I can’t see the Tories offering a referendum at the GE on either in/out or mandate to renegotiate membership. People tempted by UKIP would just not trust this. Plus it would alienate people that were pro-EU or neutral. The Tories would be painted as the party that argues about Europe, rather than looking after the UK interests.

  49. @chrislane45

    “I cannot explain why there is so much anger with the Liberal Democrats. Can anyone do so please?”

    Simple… the LibDems were fomed from two parties.

    The Liberal half are fully at ease with financial/fiscal tightness (which was always Liberal policy) and the relative social liberalism of Cameron (if not his backbench).

    BUT… the Social Democrats can’t stomach the economics of the coalition. That’s at least half of the party’s core vote lost.

    Also, the party’s support contained a large amount of floating anti-establishment protest voters. These won’t live with a party who have “betrayed” them by joining the establishment.

    So, with half the core and most of the floaters lost, it’s not surprising they struggle.

  50. If David Miliband comes back, it could be shadow IDS. I think David has been looking into youth unemployment and what Labour can do about this.

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