Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 44%, LDEM 9% and Others 17% (including UKIP on 8%), so has Labour’s lead at 13 for a second day.
There are also some new voting intention figures from TNS-BMRB, with fieldwork conducted over the weekend, which show very similar figures to YouGov – CON 30%, LAB 43%, LDEM 10% and Others 17%.
(I am out this evening, so this post was written in advance)
| 28 | 37 | 9 |
 | 21 May | 27 | 38 | 10 | 16 | Lab +11 |
| 20 May | 31 | 39 | 10 | 14 | Lab +8 |
 | 18 May | 24 | 35 | 11 | 22 | Lab +11 |
| 17 May | 29 | 40 | 9 | 14 | Lab +11 |
 | 16 May | 29 | 35 | 8 | 19 | Lab +6 |
 | 16 May | 28 | 37 | 7 | 18 | Lab +9 |
 | 16 May | 27 | 37 | 7 | 20 | Lab +10 |
| 16 May | 31 | 39 | 9 | 15 | Lab +8 |
| 15 May | 30 | 40 | 10 | 14 | Lab +10 |
| 14 May | 30 | 40 | 10 | 15 | Lab +10 |
| 13 May | 31 | 38 | 10 | 14 | Lab +7 |
 | 13 May | 31 | 34 | 10 | 13 | Lab +3 |
 | 12 May | 28 | 34 | 11 | 18 | Lab +6 |
| 10 May | 30 | 39 | 9 | 16 | Lab +9 |
| 9 May | 30 | 39 | 10 | 14 | Lab +9 |
| 8 May | 27 | 38 | 11 | 17 | Lab +11 |
| 7 May | 29 | 39 | 9 | 16 | Lab +10 |
| 3 May | 30 | 40 | 11 | 12 | Lab +10 |
| 2 May | 32 | 43 | 9 | 10 | Lab +11 |
| 2 May | 28 | 35 | 9 | 17 | Lab +7 |
| 1 May | 33 | 39 | 10 | 13 | Lab +6 |
| 30 Apr | 30 | 39 | 11 | 14 | Lab +9 |
| 29 Apr | 30 | 39 | 11 | 14 | Lab +9 |
| 28 Apr | 32 | 38 | 9 | 13 | Lab +6 |
| 28 Apr | 29 | 36 | 12 | 16 | Lab +7 |
Clearly not long! Thanks AW, and I now enjoy the subtle pleasure of being able to link to my blog without even having to mention it ! (Visitors welcome if you can appreciate the subtlety!)
Did they say it was the Germans who made the Greek farmer pay for more guns so he couldnt afford to feed his cows?
BLUEBOB,,
The same as a Yes to Independence and a No to EU membership.
The People have spoken, you are sovereign and we serve you.
To be honest I tend to think that as a Tory you have more chance of getting a referendum on the Euro in an Independent Scotland than in the UK.
So here’s a question for you. If the UK was in and we were out would you move North?
Peter.
@BLUEBOB
I’d much rather prefer a No vote to the referendum, but a landslide SNP victory in 2015…to keep westminster on their toes. I feel it’s the best solution for Scotland (I’ve not done much thinking on the subject to be fair).
Posting this just to check if the moderation button is getting applied to others; not sure if I’ve been overly partisan.
I think its something of a myth that having a less then telegenic leader means you wont win an election.
Sure, Millibnad doesn’t have the relaxed charm of Blair or even Cameron – but he does have other assets over the coaltion leaders. He comes accross as nerdy, a policy wonk – but he also comes accross as honest. Blairs ‘charm’ graduaclly mutated in ‘smarm’ and dishonsesty – a smooth bullsh1tter – and the same process can be seen with Cameron (esp as the whole leveson thing continunes to suck at this ankles).
Clegg has already lost huge amounts of credibility and trust with the voters and is unlikely to get it back.
I- and many others- thought that labour has the 1992 eleciton in the bag when the tories made John Major their leader – They’ve made Mr Bean their leader! How wrong we were on that one. (well untill black wednesday).
To be honest I think the coalition has the look of death about it already – the queens speech and the relauch were the dampest of damp squibs and unless the economy picks up remarkably very soon they will be voted out.
Also a hefty chunk of the lib dem vote has gone to labour and they unlikely to go back as the the LDs are sacrificed their role in many peoples eyes as an alternative anti-tory vote.
This means that even if the tories match their underwhelming 36% from last time – they will still very likely poll less than labour.
In 2010, many people were sick of labour and a realtively small number of them were convinced that the best thing was the give the opposition a chance – Cameron had done jsut enough to ‘detoxify’ the tories to end up the biggest party.
Now – with the economy in the toilet and the sleeze piling up – they would seem to have lost the trust of those that switched to them last time. So we have asituation where most people are throughrally sick of the mainstream parties and dont trust them – in that context goody goody Ed the nerd may well not be the handicap that some people think he is.
Only if they got rid of the scots peter j/k :)
I think canada would suffice.
BLUEBOB,
is that Canada without the French?
Peter.
Good post reggieside.
Now Mad Max has been banned I might be tempted to come back and post more often…
Just back from the foodbank, took the wife out tonight, looking forward to dessert, chocolate teapot and mascarpone…..I’m with the UKPR zeitgeist ! :-)
Bring back Max!!!!!
Tories under 30 – but maybe not until tomorrow
PAULCROFT,
Brilliant!
Peter.
@ANTHONY WELLS
Consider yourself lucky, I have a shop and this guy kept coming in telling me I was doing it all wrong and that he could do a better job. Was very polite and said no to him, he hated my politeness even more and he became angrier and angrier, eventually he stormed off shouting insults.
Peter: thankyou. What?
I agree ReggieSide. Plan A electoral strategy/hope for Conservatives is “let’s make it a Presidential contest like the last GE as noone will want Wallace and Gromit”.
I think some of the most revealing evidence or portents electorally at the moment is to be found on the online comment boards of the Mail and Telegraph. They include huge amounts of personal vitriol against Cameron from people who voted Conservative last time.
Anthony:
1/ Why does my word-press welcome say “Howdy!”?? I am not a cowboy.
2/ Is there a way of linking one’s user-name to one’s website?
Fareham – partly why I came back, although redemption is part of AW’s ethos, another reason not to go away for good.
re Unfortunate Personalities – nice one reggie!. Personality derives from Latin for Mask. Gordon Brown fell into the
“trustworthy geek” caqtegory uintil his “mask” slipped after the bottled election episode and Marr interview. “Not Flash, Just Gordon” was a great Saatchi (?) strapline to counter the Cameron image. Until the Mask slipped and the media turned against him.
Modern businesses listen to their quiet geeks because they tend to do thinking more creatively than those who do the scmooze well (hopeless generalisation, sorry). Whether Ed M can use that to his advantage, or use his energy to become more expressive/humorous/appealing depends on time and events.
All the leaders need to think how they say their schtick. I’m just happy in the prevailing thought that spin-doctoring is onits way out, and honesty ios back in fashion.
PaulCroft
The answer to 2 is above the captcha code (and click on my name for an example – I could do with the traffic!)
GARY GATTER…………I was at an American airport, ( Deep South ) and bought a book titled, ‘ How to achieve your life goals, with the use of a .38 calibre handgun’ I think you might benefit from the advice therein. :-)
PaulCroft – well done! Nice pic of you!
Ken: Ta very much. So it does so automatically!!!!
I’d forgotten what a nice looking bloke I am.
Off to check if Max has a website now…….
Ken: Can you sum up the book’s contents? It sounds great.
@Reginaldmauldling
“Plan A electoral strategy/hope for Conservatives is “let’s make it a Presidential contest like the last GE as noone will want Wallace and Gromit”.”
The trouble is that I don’t think people want the Chuckle Brothers either ;)
OLDNAT
ALLAN CHRISTIE
In May’s election, “Others” – mainly Socialists, Christians, NF and UKIP amassed a total of 2,3% in Scotland.
I don’t think you need to worry
.____________
I will sleep easy tonight. ;)
Paul – I’m John TT, not Ken (who will be more offended thatn I) !!!
@KEN
LOL, I think I understand why we limit the ownership of guns this side of the pond. On that that I would have been only too happy to use the ultimate sanction.
My post should have read:
LOL, I think I understand why we limit the ownership of guns this side of the pond. On that day I would have been only too happy to use the ultimate sanction.
My typing is a little erratic, my dogs wind problem is very distracting.
@paulcroft
Da da da da dah
da da da da dah
da da da
da – da
da – daaaaah
Billy Bob: Good lyrics but what’s yer point?
John TT: Molto apologias. What was the plot anyway??
@paulcroft
I thought if I hummed it, you might play it.
I bought a bottle of cider today, but am wary of drinking it after the tragi-comic events here this evening. It isn’t Magners, though, so I may be safe.
My prediction for tonight was:
Con 31.6
Lab 42.4
LD 8.9
…but that was before the rumour of alternative cocoa-based options in the poll, so it may be way off.
@ Reggieside,
I think the whole thing about a telegenic leader is irrelevant, the issue is “Who do you think will make the best PM” – even though officially we don’t elect a PM (we elect an MP and the leader of largest party becomes PM) we are now effectively in Presidential style politics.
It’s influence isn’t absolute as in the US, but remember Major was considered to make a better PM than Kinnock by the time of the election so it wasn’t a complete surprise. The more popular man, with better ratings, won the day.
With the advent of the debates this will only become more important. Not absolutely important but more important.
Of course if Lab are +10 points ahead on GE eve, it wont really matter if EM’s numbers are bad (although I would imagine by then if Lab are +10 ahead his numbers would be good), but conversely if EMs numbers stay bad, then a +10 lead will evaporate as any GE approaches.
Paul Croft – it was Ken or Gary’s book and I don’t know whose was the .38, but I suspect it was used to kill the Python who couldn’t decide whether to squeeze Reginald Maudling ‘s last budgetary vision for the UK to death, or to strangle it.
Beginning to feel like I’ve never been away.
Just noticed that the LATEST UNS PROJECTION has been updated.
How will the fighter jet U turn play into tonight’s polling figures.
It can not be good for the government. After claiming that the previous government had got the choice of jet so wrong that the only thing to do was to stop the whole deal, only to find they were right must be the biggest and most public U turn in many a long year.
This can only add to the omnishambles of the last month, on that basis I will go with:
Lab 45
Con 29
Lib dem 9
UKIP 10
John TT: Didn’t know you had been away: what was it like?
@MICHAEL ELLIOTT
My prediction, based on nothing much has changed is:
C 31, L 44, LD 9
Latest YouGov/The Sun results 10th May CON 34%, LAB 44%, LD 7%, (UKIP 7%); APP -38
Michael,
Just noticed you’re on! How are you ? :-)
The teapot wins every time….. :-)
Conservatives taking votes from LD and UKIP!
Latest YouGov/The Sun results 10th May CON 34%, LAB 44%, LD 7%, (UKIP 7%); APP -38
———————-
Is 10 going to be the new poll drums?
Labour on 44% is brilliant. Crawl back from UKIP to Tory is to be expected but whilst Labour are above 40, there’s nothing much to worry about. :-)
Hi Hooded! Long time no see. I’m good, thanks – just getting my magnificent poll-predicting machine back to work after a busy year. And yourself?
Lab 44% very significant – especially if they can hold and build.
Maybe the MOE is 9-13 giving a mid point 11% Labour lead.
LD on 7%
Good Evening All
@NICK P.
very high still
DAVEM,
I think the technical term would be Immelman not U-Turn!
Peter.
With the presentational problems of the Government recently really Labour should be at least 15-20 points ahead. Ed Milband must be gutted tonight with a poll lead so slender as 10 points.
Gary Gatter,
I’d agree with that 11% estimate.
Or maybe we are seeing some fightback from the coalition Gary, though Labour has held it share so….
@ Peter Cairns
It would be helpfull if there was no french but i can put up with a few.