Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 44%, LDEM 8%, Others 17% (including UKIP on 8%). Thirteen points equals the biggest Labour lead YouGov have shown since the election (it’s been hit twice before, both in April).

All the normal caveats apply – sure, it could be the start of larger Labour leads or it could just be normal random variation around the 10 or 11 point leads we’ve been seeing of late. That said, I personally wouldn’t be surprised if we did see bigger Labour leads in the coming days, it is far from unknown for local election victories to give parties a boost (from having the aura of success about them and “looking like a winner”). Equally, it’s far from guaranteed to happen. As ever, time will tell.


401 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 31, LAB 44, LDEM 8, UKIP 8”

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  1. yup

  2. Lab up, Con down.

    Creeping death.

  3. One or two people jumping on the trend.

    My guess is that a good many people were not really aware until last Friday that Labour was popular/stong again.

  4. Given the poor performance by Dave and Nick today, and the fact that they have nothing new to say, would expect this lead to stay until something big happens to change things one way or the other.

  5. Lab lead by 5 points over 60s and only 1 point behind in rest of the south.

    Bell tolling.

  6. How long do you think Lab will sustain large leads before the vote ‘hardens’? Cons not down by much compared to pre-locals, which suggests that the extra few points are from LD voters?

  7. Things can only get better!

  8. AW —

    It would be interesting to see the updated verson of the UKPR polling average — to see how any trend is developing — its looking a bit out of date at the moment!

    :-)

  9. The UKIP vote confuses me.

    They averaged 14% in the locals, but in London they only got 2%, then nationally, they are on 8% where is the true value???

  10. It is interesting the coalitions narrative is the government economic plans have not worked so far, because of outside events. Plus they only believe that GDP growth will be generated, as a result of extra government spending/borrowing, which would cause more of a problem. They therefore don’t see any alternative to their current plan.

    When you have Wonga entering the business loans market with rates of up to 4000%, you know you have a problem. If there is insufficient private investment in the economy, the government has to do something about it.

  11. Also refering to the other thread, when you google Max King, this site doesnt come up or nothing about me, thres tons of Max kings, even one from emmerdale apparently, how will you know which one is which peter?

  12. site not loading again

  13. Complacency being openly shown by Labour supporters here.

  14. Look at those figures for the “rest of the South.” Badbadbad times for the Tories.

  15. It’s going to take another couple of years of pain, for some, before we get the economy back on track, however, IMO, it’ll be worth the wait. I expect the polls to reflect the public’s ignorance for the time being, however, like Pavlov’s dogs, when the Coalition ring the recovery bell, the people will come running. :-)

  16. Max: on UKIP.

    I suspect the national predictions. In locals they may have gotten a boost for being a Conservative party, but not part of the coalition. I suspect for the opposite reason they were crowded out of London, where people mainly seen it as a Lab vs Con, Ken Vs Boris thing.

  17. Max,

    I take it you have never heard of wikileaks?

    Even if you are never significant enough for them to bother, I have little doubt that you are so proud of your “wit & wisdom” that you have let a few of your student friends into your secret identity.

    Like I say the Internet never forgets.

    That’s one reason I post under my own name and make sure I never post anything I am not prepared to support!

    Peter.

  18. Given the renewed talk of an electoral pact – Cameron’s comments about a “Tory led government” post 2015, I would dearly love to see some polling on how people might react if that was indeed on offer at the GE.

    It could be that he is trying to postpone the sense of inertia that has overcome the coalition… there is still some life and possibility in the idea. Or it is a realisation that the Tories will not get an OM. Or a fear that both Con and LD are in danger of losing scores of seats. Or he doing this deliberately to sound dismissive of his right flank?

  19. @Swanarcadian

    I’ve been a LP constituency campaign manager for 16 years and I can assure you that there is no complacency.

    Too many false dawns mean that we take nothing for granted.

  20. ” I take it you have never heard of wikileaks?
    I have little doubt that you are so proud of your “wit & wisdom” that you have let a few of your student friends into your secret identity.”

    What does wikileaks have to do with this? Getting secret documents from the US gov here and now, and trawling through a site of millions of posts from years ago, are very different.

    And NO, I dont let any of my friends know I post on a political site, I dont even let them know I;m into politics, and I deliberately play dumb. They know im conservative, and i sometimes ask how they vote, but not the level you see here. I lost my team a pub quiz when the question was to name the Education secretary, I obviously knew it, but pretended not too, and we lost by 1 point. I dont want to look like a politcs geek even tho i guess i secretly am. but i keep it secret.

    “That’s one reason I post under my own name and make sure I never post anything I am not prepared to support!”

    And I’ve not posted anything here that I’m not prepared to support either. I attack Cameron but in 10 years time that will be allowed, Labour Mp’s openly attack Blair, thats not harmed their chances. There’s nothing I’ve said that I would be ashamed of.

  21. @Max OTFCOK

    You said “…On an EU FTT, how does other countries imposing a finacial transaction tax effect us??? Maybe I’ve read it wrong, but I thought it was a tax on banks actions within the country…”

    You read it wrong. You can move the bank, but you can’t move your customers.

    If Bob sells a mortgage to Jim and both are in France, then a FTT is not a problem. But if Bob is in France and Jim is in UK, then a FTT is suddenly an enormous problem, because Hollande can still impose the FTT. Remember, if you place a tax on one party in a transaction, effectively both parties pay.

    If the EU26-ex-UK impose a FTT, then suddenly that’s hundreds of millions of potential City of London customers that have to pay a FTT, and the City will vivisect Cameron. The EU is one mechanism (possibly the only mechanism?) we have to prevent this, so backbenchers Nadining about like a bunch of rabid hamsters is the last thing we need right now.

    You then said “…Anyways In like 10 years time…I doubt the data will still be on the server,…”

    Er, it will still be recoverable.

    Regards, Martyn

  22. Good news for travellers to Europe, me for instance, the,£ / E rate is getting better daily, 1-30 predicted, cheap holidays will produce a feelgood factor this year, sweetening the pill, for some. :-)

  23. Billy Bob,whatever the reasons,it seems to have gone
    down like a lead balloon, with not only the journalists,but
    also the audience.I am referring to the re-launch in the
    tractor factory.

  24. @Martyn that makes no sense whatsoever. Surely if both are in france, then the FTT still apllies and it is still a problem. Also if a french person gets a mortgage in the UK surely it can’t be taxed, if Mr Jean-pierre comes here and I lend him 100k surely mr hollande cant then get his greedy paws on it? And if he can, then i just wont lend to mr jean pierre, which is hardly a problem as London is hardly reliant on selling mortgages to france.

  25. @Ken

    I expect the polls to reflect the public’s ignorance for the time being,
    —————————

    It’s never a good idea to refer to the public in this way. It makes makes Conservatives seem arrogant and out of touch. Know what I mean? :-)

  26. @Ken

    Full Marks for stiff upper lip.

    As far as the ‘pubic ignorance’ goes … after today’s double act of more of the same …. the only running they will be doing is away.

    It’ hurting, but it’s not working.

    We are back in recession….with 3 years and 80% of the cuts to yet take effect, I don’t think they will be as glad to run into your arms as you think!
    Labour will be a refreshing change in comparison by then, even with a slight recovery.

  27. Oh and I really doubt that in 10 years time, one of you will remember me, see me, and set about trying to recover all this data, and even if you did, what would you find? I’ve not said anything I wouldn’t be prepared to repeat, I’ve not said anything that I regret.

  28. Labour supporters certainly shouldnt be complacent. However, there are 2 known facts:

    1) The tide across Europe has turned – out with the austerity parties and in with parties favouring growth

    2) We are 40% of the way through a 5yr parliament and Labour’s lead is getting bigger – meaning the Coalition (tonight on 39%) has less and less time to overcome a bigger and bigger Labour lead.

    Given that many Tories now want the Lib Dems out and senior Lib Dems are starting to consider withdrawal pre-2015 (to detoxify), the chances of an early election are looking greater than ever.

    Additionally, it is rumoured that the LDs are prepared to abandon Lords reform in return for keeping the current constituency boundaries – making a big Labour win all the more likely.

    What a difference the last 2 months have made.

  29. Ken

    You are actually already in Europe. ‘They’ will welcome your cash. naturally.

    The thread changed and I think that, if this is not an outlier, there does seem to be a definite break in the tow rope.

    If it is not an outlier!

  30. VALERIE……..Sometimes we need a bit of tough love. Know what I mean? :-)

  31. @Swebb

    The only question then is would labour legislate for gay marriage. I’m really not sure, sometimes they don’t care how badly they rip our social fabric, other times they do actually show concern for values. They had 13 years to bring in gay marriage and didnt, why would 2015 be so different from their policy in 2010 say?

  32. @King of the Independent Max Party of Kent (Or whatever it is today!)

    Ahh! it is all making sense now. Not a parody. A young Conservative. Cool. I am, like, sorry for the aspersions that I cast ;)

  33. Max: You never know, David Cameron certainly wheeled back his anti-Gay stance pretty quickly, as did Theresa May and a whole host of others. I for one will remember you, just in case we run against each other. ;)

  34. @Ann (in Wales) – “… a lead balloon”

    62% of Tories support the coalition, 69% of LDs.
    Only 48% of 2010 Con voters support it, 35% of 2010 LDs.

    So today they managed to further annoy the 47% and 57% of their 2010 vote who “oppose the coalition”.

  35. Most Lab figures were in favour of eventually introducing Same sex marriages, however, used Civil Partnerships as a stepping stone. I remember how controversial that was at the time, Labour would have been hard pushed to legislate on Same sex marriage at the time.

    Instead they played the long game and pushed equal rights until all major UK parties have been forced into a position where they have to support equality – a fair sight better than a one of piece of legislation.

  36. My prediction on the last thread..

    Tonight’s Yougov

    Labour 41%

    Coalition 37%

    Ukip 9%
    _______

    Tonights poll.
    CON 31%, LAB 44%, LDEM 8%, Others 17% (including UKIP on 8%).

    Not too bad!! :)

  37. Max,

    ” I deliberately play dumb. ”

    At last we agree on something!

    Peter.

  38. @HANNAH

    “Look at those figures for the “rest of the South.” Badbadbad times for the Tories.”

    Mmm. Pops up as an outlier in my trends, but time will tell.

  39. Lol under moderation again when ive not made a single partisan comment in this thread.

    Someones just getting trigger happy with the moderate button.

  40. PAUL BRISTOL………It’s difficult for me to imagine, having seen Boris buck the trend, that the voters won’t respond to another change. IMO, the next change will be for the better, having observed the fluctuations on here over the last few years, nothing would surprise me, but I have expectations. By the way, my Blues were very generous to the Reds tonight, we’re not all bad. :-)

  41. Peter,

    hows the council work go… oh yeah, I forgot, :P xx

  42. Relaunch; what relaunch? The Coalition leaders stood in the tractor factory & said the Government will keep doing what it is already doing. The audience, I am told, received this not-news with the icy civility it deserved. Coalition supporters should not expect a big boost in VI to come from this non-event.
    8-)

  43. HOWARD…………Have you noticed that our French neighbours have chosen another really tiny chap to lead them, are they shrinking in Europe, or is it that we choose big fellas’ ! :-)

  44. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-17942259

    Our very own Peter is somewhat of a celebrity and has been mentioned on the BBC News

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-17942259

    Makes for a very good read. Shall add it to my favourites.

  45. Beware ambitious little men in Europe ! :-)

  46. AMBER STAR

    There’s only one coalition in town and it’s in Edinburgh.. ;)

  47. Ken.

    Good news for holiday makers. Deeply bad news for exporters like my company. Not only is our biggest market tanking due to co-ordinated Austerity, but now even when people o’er yon DO want to buy, our goods and services are now 10% more expensive than they were last year (or we receive 10% less in sterling). Happy bloody days eh?

  48. @Max OTFCOK

    Your first point is not wrong: if both parties are outside France (for tax purposes) then Hollande’s FTT is powerless. But asking your customers to physically move to UK is obviously problematic… :-)

    As for your second point, any City firm that turns ’round and says “Well, I just won’t sell to the French, Germans, Benelux, Scandinavians, Iberians, Balkans, Baltics, so there” will have its bottom handed to it on a silver platter.

    Incidentally, this plays into a wider question about the feasibility of taxation in a globalised world. If I in Singapore sign a contract with Bob in Los Angeles via a company registered in the Isle of Man, then a) on what date did the contract take place, b) under what jurisdiction will the contract be held, and c) who can tax the transaction? Please don’t answer those questions (they are rhetorical), but they are meant to illustrate the difficulties here.

    Regards, Martyn

  49. @ StatGeek

    Yes, this poll is definitely an outlier, at this stage. The Rest of the South has very high levels of Other (mainly UKIP) & Don’t Know is also higher than usual.
    8-)

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