YouGov’s final poll for the London mayoral election gives Boris a six point lead over Ken Livingstone. Full tabs are here. On the first round voting intention stands at JOHNSON 43%, LIVINGSTONE 38%, PADDICK 7%, WEBB 4%, BENITA 4%, JONES 3%, CORTIGLIA 1%. Once second preferences are reallocated we have JOHNSON 53%, LIVINGSTONE 47% in the final round, the same lead as Boris won upon back in 2008. Note that the lead is mostly down to higher turnout amongst Boris supporters, prior to filtering by likelihood to vote the two candidates are neck and neck.

The poll also has voting intention for the London Assembly, which stands at CON 33%, LAB 44%, LDEM 9%, Others 14% in the constituency vote and CON 32%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 8%, GRN 7%, BNP 1% in the list vote. This would translate into 11 seats for Labour, 8 for the Conservatives, 2 for the Lib Dems, 2 UKIP and 2 Greens.

There is also a first and final Opinium poll on the London contest here – they have first round preferences at JOHNSON 43%, LIVINGSTONE 37%, PADDICK 7%, JONES 6%, WEBB 3%, BENITA 3%, CORTIGLIA 1%. Once second preferences are reallocated it becomes JOHNSON 52%, LIVINGSTONE 48%.

I am not aware of any other final polls for the London mayoral election. The full list of polls conducted in the campaign are here. The only other polls conducted in the final week of the campaign were the previous poll for YouGov, and a Populus/Times poll which had a substantially larger lead for Boris.

There is no new polling for other elections today – YouGov carried out a poll on the Welsh local elections last month (report here) suggesting a good advance for Labour, Survation published a poll on all the locals here. For Scotland there is a distinct shortage of any polling whatsoever in recent months.

I previewed all of today’s polls at the weekend here, looking at exactly what was up for grabs in each contest. For those watching the results tonight, the English locals should start coming in around midnight, Welsh results also start coming in overnight but will be slower. The Scottish counts start on Friday, while the London results will start coming in Friday afternoon, with the mayoral result hopefully being announced late afternoon or evening.

UPDATE: One more prediction, Roger Mortimore of MORI has adapted his famous Sweet FA election prediction model to predict a Boris win (yes, it’s tongue in cheek, but it has an important lesson as Roger mentions in the footnote. There are a relatively small number of elections since the war, so it is very easy to come up with rules that fit the pattern and give them undue importance. It was logic along those lines that led a few unfortunate pundicts to predict a hung Parliament in 1997, as past history suggested a swing big enough for Labour to win overall was impossible)


187 Responses to “YouGov’s final London poll has Boris ahead by 6”

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  1. According to the Guardian live blog (staying up till 6am):

    1pm: By now more than a dozen English councils should have declared, and the first Welsh results should be in.

    Around 3am: The BBC should have enough results to be able to produce a projected national share of the vote.

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  2. AW: Sorry, posted before your comment had loaded. I meant no offence to anyone.

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  3. Scotswaehae – you posted before I’d *made* my comment. Can’t blame people for that!

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  4. This forum is nothing to do with God’s attitude to Gays. It’s for discussing whether Coulson’s resignation will eventually spell death for this Government.

    I thought EVERYBODY understood that.

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  5. CHRIS LANE

    @”In terms of the Irish scandal, and it is a scandal, commented on here by some, remember that 10,000 children were removed from ordinary homes in the UK this year. 100 children are killed every year at home as well. This is a huge societal issue which no party faces.”

    What an interesting-and quite incredible remark.

    It is interesting because it mirrors the views of Cardinal
    Brady who, having questioned a young boy who complained about being abused,( one of many) failed to act against the paedophile priest. This priest went on to subjected the child to abuse long after the Church inquiry was completed and continued to abuse other young victims for more than 15 years afterwards.

    Brady said, after the TV exposure , that he was , at that time, only a “note-taker” in the investigation and not the “designated person” responsible for reporting the matter to the civil authorities.(neither the police nor the parents were informed).Brady had ” trusted”his superiors to deal with the matter, he added, saying the Church did not fully understand the impact of the abuse at the time.-there were no “guidelines” he said.

    This was a State within a State.
    Imperial & Imperious.
    Unnaccountable & intent solely on preserving it’s position of power over ordinary people.

    Paedophile priests were moved on to new parishes-the bishops thus spread the disease and “kept the faith”.

    Suffer little children to come unto me.

    Suffer little children! – come unto me.

    In July 2011 the new Irish PM Enda Kenny said “This is not Rome. This is the Republic of Ireland 2011, a republic of laws,”.

    In a direct challenge to the Vatican, Kenny denounced what he called “the dysfunction, disconnection, elitism — and the narcissism — that dominate the culture of the Vatican to this day.”

    He said the church’s leaders had repeatedly sought to defend their institutions at the expense of children, and to “parse and analyze” every revelation of church cover-up of crimes “with the gimlet eye of a canon lawyer.”

    Today , Brady, Primate of Ireland -is urged to resign by Eamon Gilmore, Ireland’s deputy prime minister as well as the foreign minister, and Garry O’Sullivan, editor of the Irish Catholic.

    THese are momentous times for Ireland after so many dark years under the State within a State.

    Gilmore said :

    “I’ve always believed in the separation of church and state,I think it is the job of government and of the state to enact our laws and to ensure that those laws apply to everybody whether they belong to a church or not.

    “But it is my own personal view that anybody who did not deal with the scale of the abuse that we have seen in this case should not hold a position of authority.”

    THese are brave politicians in that particular country.

    But it has come too late for the scarred and damaged adults who we saw on the TV programe.-and the many who were not interviewed & who now demand to be heard .

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  6. NickP – ;)

    Behave yourselves, the lot of you. Only 20 minutes till polls close

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  7. Thank you Anthony,I have just seen that the Monmouth
    result should be in at about 3am ,so I will be going to bed before then! Goodnight everyone,much to discuss tomorrow no doubt.

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  8. @Anthony

    Please help me, I am confused to say the least. Is this a site for opinion polls and nothing else or are we allowed to talk about other issues as well? I see other people constantly talking about other things. Another user asked me a perfectly reasonable question on my faith, and I wrote a long answer, just explaining what I had been taught, not making any partisan attacks and then it’s removed.

    “As a nice rule of thumb, think of it as a site about politics, not a venue for politics.”

    I was replying to a question posed to me, about what the catholic church teaches. I replied by saying what you are taught I wasn’t saying you all have to join. I didn’t even say whether I agreed with it or not (although you can probably guess)

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  9. Well off for a weekend with the grandchildren-and a Jethro Tull concert on Sunday-oh joy :-)

    Go Boris

    Have fun folks.

    :-) :-) :-)

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  10. Crossbat.

    Just had a similar-ish experience. Been to vote up here in Sheffield late on in the day at the local church hall. The polling booth is in a little ante room. In the main hall there was a geriatric blues band practicing. Two of them looked like Keef Richards’s dad.

    Fair put a big smile on me face as I crossed the “What and end up with a dick like Pete Davies in charge? Not bloody likely!” box on the Mayor question.

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  11. Having read the last page or two of comments, I think Anthony must feel like Kindergarden Cop at the moment.

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  12. Bromley Town.turnout news:

    Asked the people.behind the registers marking people off about turnout. “so, so” was the response.

    If ticked off names are anything to.go by, the turnout.is much lower than last time. 35% at best. May be higher in different parts of the borough but there were far fewer ticked off names than 4 years ago.

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  13. It is getting exciting, I absolutely love the next 8 – 10 hrs, so will have the TV on overnight, I only sleep in 2 – 3 hr periods so will be fun to watch… will power up the lap top when I go to bed keep an eye out on here…

    Only those in London should care about who wins London Mayor; as it affects them… the rest of the UK could not really give a hoop… and if the politicians, media etc keep insisting the rest of the UK is irrelevant, can old Mercia have a independence vote as well as north of the border… hehe

    J

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  14. @Phil.

    You’re in Birmingham aren’t you? So you’ll have voted on the mayoral referendum.

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  15. @Hannah

    Perish the thought! 15 miles to the North West. And far enough to be clear of Baggies supporters, by and large.

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  16. Latest YouGov/The Sun results 3rd May CON 32%, LAB 41%, LD 9%, (UKIP 9%); APP -38

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  17. Max – the simpliest rule is if I tell people to drop a subject, drop it.

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  18. ” And far enough to be clear of Baggies supporters, by and large.”

    I had to look that up, but I live in Studentsville so my contact with real people locally tends to be limited.

    “Latest YouGov/The Sun results 3rd May CON 32%, LAB 41%, LD 9%, (UKIP 9%); APP -38″

    There does seem to have been a small but distinct narrowing of the Labour lead. I’m not sure where it’s coming from.

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  19. Now polls are closed will there be an exit poll released for London Mayor?

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  20. [snip]

    Daily Politics said there were 500,000 postal votes in Scotland. Could explain the low turnout.
    PS: Interestingly only in Scotland they changed the system so that at 10 the ‘line closes’ on joining the queue to vote, to counter the incidents when people were turned away in the 2010 election. Surprising.

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  21. From the crossbreaks the narrowing of Lab lead is in London. The Boris/Ken factor?

    Hope that doesn’t bode bad for Kenny.

    Rest of the South is massively Con too. Must be the Max Factor.

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  22. PS.

    a) Does anyone know when we’ll be getting results for today’s elections.

    b) AW. How does your spam filter treat links? I had several posts with a single link put in moderation earlier today, even after I broke the http.

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  23. PPS @Rob Sheffield.

    I always presumed the “Sheffield” in your username was your surname. Do you write for Labour List by any chance?

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  24. @Anthony

    Why is Fraser allowed to continue the argument and slate the catholic church and yet if I replied I would be moderated. Also my reply that got moderated was posted after I saw your post.

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  25. @RAF

    turnout depends upon a number of factors including weather the candidates are debating issues that people care about weather they are ”local” and how oftern people are asked to vote. in my case i lost my parish seat in 2011 with a turnout of 71.2% in the village and 55.0% for the wider electoral ward, so there are always differing factors to how turnout will be, turnout could be increased if there was a box for non of the above or reopen nominations.

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  26. @NickP.

    The London cross breaks have been a bit odd, but contradicted by the VI in the London poll in the OP.

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  27. Sorry for the tone of the above, I just want to make sure I don’t break your rules. I don’t really see where the line is that’s all.

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  28. @Max

    “@Anthony
    Why is Fraser allowed to continue the argument and slate the catholic church and yet if I replied I would be moderated. Also my reply that got moderated was posted after I saw your post.”

    Don’t worry the same thing happened to me. Doubtless Fraser will face the axe in a couple of minutes time.

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  29. “Rest of the South is massively Con too. Must be the Max Factor.”

    I try my best :)

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  30. Any indicators on Glasgow?

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  31. Apologies didn’t see AW’s comment.

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  32. Are there any exit polls for anywhere really?

    Most interested in Doncaster referendum, Glasgow Council and obviously Mayoral elections.

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  33. Nick Robinson just summed up what I’ve been saying all day.

    Labour lots of council wins, Boris winning in London, possible loss of Glasgow though not certain for labour, and bad news all round for the lib dems.

    More interestingly he said because of low turnout a lot of the mayoral referendums look set to be lost, he highlighted birmingham specifically where it looked unlikely they would get their own mayor.

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  34. HuffPost is claiming that they’ve ‘heard’ of people choosing from the other candidates for their first preference expecting them not to win.

    So they think there might be a strong show of support of the independent candidate Siobhan Benita.

    Little detail on this, just the same I suppose as claiming you read some ‘I voted Ken’ posts on twitter really.

    Turnout again low. Seems no ones really up for an election. Depending on how bad the turnout is could really affect the narrative from this – take the shine off everyone? Just make them all look like awful politicians?

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  35. “HuffPost is claiming that they’ve ‘heard’ of people choosing from the other candidates for their first preference expecting them not to win.

    That’s what I did, Boris was always my first choice, but I voted for Ukip guy as I liked Ukip 2nd, and knew he wouldn’t win so voted him 1st boris 2nd. Slightly anecdotal, but I too see a lot of people going Independent just as a way to stick it to the political system in general.

    “Turnout again low. Seems no ones really up for an election”

    They’ve not really been focused on in the news that much either. Talking to a few people again anecdotal, they were away of the London Mayoral election, but were met with complete surprise when they got 2 other papers asking them to vote for the assembly as well, as they hadn’t really heard anything about it.

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  36. So this is what Scadenfraude is.

    One of my closest friends wanted to vote for greens first, independent 2nd, and ken 3rd. It was his first time voting.

    He completed the first column saying green, 2nd column saying siobhan, put it in the box, asked if he could have another sheet for his 3rd preference, then found out, he couldnt get a 3rd preference. Poor charlie

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  37. @ Anthony Wells

    “the simpliest rule is if I tell people to drop a subject, drop it.”

    You’re awesome man. And don’t you ever forget it! :)

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