The Sun political team have already tweeted out the results of tonight’s YouGov daily poll. Topline figures are CON 33%, LAB 43%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 8% – so very much in line with the 10 or 11 point Labour leads YouGov have been showing of late.

Voting intention for Westminster is not a prediction for local government elections – people vote differently in different elections, the Lib Dems tend to do better in local elections and Labour worse – but the national polls are significantly better for Labour than they were a year ago, so it’s reasonable to expect a better showing for Labour tomorrow. (For the record, a year ago YouGov were showing Westminster voting intention at CON 36%, LAB 40%, LDEM 11%. Last year they also did a separate Local government poll, which had voting intention of CON 35%, LAB 37%, LDEM 15% – demonstrating how people do indeed consciously vote in a different way in local contests)


111 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 33%, LAB 43%, LD 8%, UKIP 8%”

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  1. @”There’s nothing wrong with Hollande’s message ”

    Interesting development this morning reported by Bloomberg:-

    “Hollande has called on the ECB to lend directly to governments……….While both ECB President Mario Draghi and German Chancellor Angela Merkel said last week that they’re amenable to adding commitments to growth to the accord, their definition is unlikely to be the same as Hollande’s…..

    “It’s not the same idea of growth,” Hollande said April 26. Draghi is “adding even stronger competition, liberalization and privatization.” ”

    Bloomberg.com

    ie Hollande wants ECB to stop lending to Banks & to “lend ” direct to EZ States.
    This is a move opposed by Germany & Draghi. It mirrors the view of MK in UK that it is not the role of Central Banks to directly fund Government borrowing.

    Hollande’s comments above about liberalisation of economies shows that here is a real socialist-wedded to a dirigist economic model , and real money printing to fund it.

    Whilst countries like Greece & Italy are working to free up their state sector owned businesses, curb public sector growth & reduce sector cartels & protectionist business rules in an effort to increase competitiveness-Hollande wants to go in the opposite direction on a tide of Zimbabwe style money printing.

    This is all going to be fascinating to watch.

  2. @COLIN

    “This is all going to be fascinating to watch.”

    Indeed. The anti-austerity people could watch and see what happens.

  3. Interesting to keep calling it “Zimbabwe-style” money printing. I suppose QE is respectable money printing cos it goes to the banks (presumably to pay big bonuses).

    There’s obvious dangers to printing money whatever way you do it. But if you think Greece’s current solution is working, then you obviously aren’t there throwing petrol bombs at their parliament.

  4. @NickP
    I have lost track. How much ‘Zimbabwe Style’ QE money have we printed?

  5. Thanks Nick.

    If the Greek GE goes to the extreme right/left & they finish with an unstable administration, I can see EZ/IMF saying -no more bailouts.

    Then the petrol bombers can put their bottles away ……..until they need them again to protest about the effects of leaving the Euro & devaluing.

  6. OZWALD

    @”How much ‘Zimbabwe Style’ QE money have we printed?”

    None.

    Zimbabwe Hyperinflation resulted in a massive increase in money supply , used to directly fund Government fiscal activity-including war in DRC , and Public Sector Payroll.

  7. In 2000 and 2004 when Ken won, there was a team from London in the Cup Final.

    There was no team from London in 2008, hence Boris stole the Mayorship.

    Fortunately for Ken, Chelsea are in the Cup Final this year, and thus he is a shoo-in to get that Mayor’s chain back again.

  8. Usually, central banks try to raise the amount of lending and activity in the economy indirectly, by cutting interest rates.

    Lower interest rates encourage people to spend, not save. But when interest rates can go no lower, a central bank’s only option is to pump money into the economy directly. That is quantitative easing (QE).

    The way the central bank does this is by buying assets – usually financial assets such as government and corporate bonds – using money it has simply created out of thin air.

    The institutions selling those assets (either commercial banks or other financial businesses such as insurance companies) will then have “new” money in their accounts, which then boosts the money supply.

    QE had never been tried before in the UK. BBC

    So far UK has magicked up £325bn in non-Zimbabwe stye money printing.

  9. The funny thing is NICKP is that i actually think your serious :)

    P>S how do i add the colour to my posts ?

  10. Should Nick Clegg resign after the election results, can we have Tim Farron as leader please.

  11. How will the locals and mayor elections play out? I think the locals will have the bigger effect, Johnson does well because he plays down the fact that he is a Tory, not because Labour voters think wow a more right wing Tory than Cameron I must vote for him. So I would expect Mondays YouGov poll to show a widening of Labours lead.

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