Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of LAB 41%, CON 32%, LDEM 9%, so we are back to somewhat more usual figures after the unusually low Labour lead yesterday and the unusually low Tory vote share on Saturday.

This morning there was also a YouGov Welsh poll – a rare creature indeed. Topline voting intention figures were as follows:

Westminster (change since 2010 GE): CON 23%(-3), LAB 50%(+14), LD 7%(-13), PC 12%(+1)
Welsh Assembly constituency (change since 2011): CON 19%(-6), LAB 48%(+6), LD 7%(-4), PC 18%(-1)
Welsh Assembly regional (change since 2011): CON 13%(-10), LAB 33%(-4), LD 9%(+1), PC 22%(+4)

More topically there were voting intention figures for the Welsh local elections this Thursday. Topline figures with changes from 2008 when Welsh local councils were last fought are CON 17%(+1), LAB 48%(+21), LDEM 7%(-6), PC 14% (-3), Independents and Others 15%(-12). The figure for independents and others seems a bit low – independent candidates got 23% of the vote at the last Welsh local elections – but that may be a result of people in areas dominated by independents saying how they would like to be able to vote if they had party candidates in their ward. Either way, it suggests Labour will have a good night in Wales on Thursday.


178 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 32%, LAB 41%, LDEM 9%”

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  1. My predictions for tomorrow.

    Conservatives will win London and declare the night was good for them.

    SNP will win Scotland and Labour lose Glasgow and declare the night was good for them.

    Labour will win a lot of local councilors and declare the night was good for them.

  2. @AW

    Please open a new thread

  3. @Luke

    As an aside, UKIP would seem to have a brave election strategy if they are actively targeting the ‘Apathetic’ as the article suggests.

    @AW

    In an attempt to bring us onto more neutral ground, and because it interests me: can you think of a good way to rationally measure success in local elections?

    Clearly it’s difficult because some areas aren’t voting, some areas are voting multiple contests, some have single candidates others multiple, some parties aren’t standing in all seats etc…

    I have very little faith in the Rawlings and Thrasher methodology, or at least in their habit of presenting comments around targets for success.

  4. TheSheep – that’s pretty much the aim of the Projected National Share that John Curtice calculates for the BBC on the night

  5. Does anyone know when the London Mayoral results are announced? Last time I seem to remember it was at least 24 hours later?
    It feels a lot closer than the polls suggest, there does seem to be a lot of Anti-Boris around, rather than much positive voting leaflets. Which in itself feels a bit odd?

  6. @Anthony W

    “This thread is becoming increasingly uncivil. Given we actually have lots of actual elections tomorrow, let’s draw a line under it and perhaps discuss them…”

    Quite so. Just as an aside, I remember a very fitting metaphor you used a while back about the serial tendency of some posters on here to bring partisan titbits to the thread (usually links to press articles that please them) as if “they were little dogs, tails wagging, bringing bones back to their master” or words to that effect.

    You were quite right, but I fear your wise counsel is still being ignored if you cast your censorious eyes upthread!

  7. Crossbat – “bad for the other side show-and-tell”. I’m sure it is, but I’m not going to drag mmy way through and prune. Since we are on a new page of comments, let’s treat it as a new beginning ;)

  8. ThamesideMark – London mayor results won’t start trickling in until Friday afternoon.

  9. The problem with projected national share is that it doesn’t really take into account things that have impact on people’s lives, such as a Council changing hands, a mayorship being lost or won etc…

    It also tends to be compared with GE results, which of course is crazy (unless I’ve got it wrong and a fudge factor is applied to weight for higher GE turnout).

    Other metrics are number of seats (but then a Birmingham City Council seat with a 25000 electorate is equal to Ruralshire Town Council with 1200 electorate), number of Councils won (no differentiation between those on thirds vs all up) etc…

  10. Max,
    I think your analysis might be close to the various results, but how much do either of the coalition parties have to lose for it to become a bad night? Or do we think London and Glasgow is cover for anything?

  11. Sorry Anthony crossed I can’t see ones arriving while I am drafting, pls take mine out awaiting moderation – no more comments on Watson RM etc, I think moving on is right.

  12. Thank you Anthony. I can go to work safe in the knowledge that I have no Mayor.

  13. @ AW,

    I am presuming that if Labour win the majority of assembly seats but Boris is mayor there will need to be some horse-trading (or gridlock) to govern. Is that how it works?

    Maybe Mayors will bring in some local checks and balances like they have in the states?

  14. @ Max,

    I notice you’ve left the LDs completely out of your equation.

    Are we (and by that I mean all posters) generally expecting it to be a terrible night for LDs everywhere?

    Does R&T give an idea of what will happen to LDs – I’ve only heard the 700 Lab gains figure bandied about.

  15. Adrian – Labour are very unlikely to have a majority of assembly seats given the system. While it’s not really my subject, I’m told by more learned people than me that the thing to watch is whether the Conservatives have enough seats to prevent the mayor’s budget being amended.

    It takes a two-thirds majority to amend the budget (17 out of 25), so if the Conservatives hold 9 seats then Boris’s budget is safe. If not, he’ll need to get support from a smaller party to get it through.

  16. R&T suggested the Lib Dems would suffer between 250 and 350 losses.

  17. Adrian:

    As someone pointed out to me the other day when I asked the same question, on the predicted London results, (Lab 12, Con 8, UKIP 2… can’t remember the others I’m afraid. I think LD 2 and Green 1?) then Boris will be able to push through his budget with help from UKIP.

  18. @AW

    There is not a chance of Labour getting 17 of the 25 Mayoral seats, or of Boris’s budget being under threat.

    Even the most favorable London polls (the YG one that had Lab 19% ahead, and Ken just 2% behind 9 days ago), suggested Labout would win around 12/13 seats. The proportional top up sees to it that parties without a majority of votes are unlikely to get a majority of seats. Remember also that there are enough true blue areas of London to enable the Cons to get at least 8 seats – whether constutuency or top up.

    So a likely scenario (if Labour do very well) is Lab 13, Con 8. But it’s also likely UKIP will get 2 seats and LD/Green 1 each. Con+UKIP will be enough to pass Boris’s budget. Lab+LD+Green still two short. And my guess is LD would back the Boris budget anyway.

  19. Opps that should have been @Adrian.

  20. Prediction for tomorrow –
    Boris wins the mayoral election (pretty obvious given that the bookies are already paying out on it).
    Labour do well in the local elections and take back Birmingham – but not as well as the press/Tories are setting up as a goal, and like 2012 are seen as having failed (no matter how many seats are won).

    Then the press decide that the only election that counts is the mayoral election and that this is proof that Ed Miliband needs to go – and by YouGov/Sunday Times, Tories are back at 36/37 and Cameron has widened the approval gap on Miliband.

  21. @AW
    Are there any more London polls expected or is it just the election tomorrow?

  22. @Smukesh

    There should be a YG London Mayoral Poll tonight (unless AW knows otherwise(!)

  23. @Tinged Fringe

    I’ve always wondered why bookies do that. The last YG poll showed a gap of just 4%. I’m not saying a Boris win isn’t probable, just not a done deal. (Unless of course YG have already shared their data with the bookies and parts of the press and asked them to keep schtum until tonight).

  24. @ TingedFringe

    I actually think its how it will play out as well, not sure if your post was tongue in cheek but i can see it going that way.

    I also think the Torys will do better than expected but will still take large losses.

    Its also pleasant to see that talk of a labour Labour goverment by july has slowed down.Some posters on here really did get carried away by it all.

    We will be back to neck & neck to small labour leads by august me thinks.

  25. Actually I think Ken’s shock wave will trigger a tidal wave of Tory dissatisfaction, with Labour leads getting up to 25% and more than half the voting public saying they’ll vote Lab and UKIP breathing down Con’s neck in the 20s.

    With Con terrified of the Coalition collapsing, the LD pile on the pressure and the right wing Tories furious threaten to go to UKIP.

    Lab Government within the year 100+ majority.

  26. @RAF
    `There should be a YG London Mayoral Poll tonight `

    Thanks…Though if the bookies are paying out,it doesn`t sound good for tonight…I hope Ken puts up a good fight if he does lose

  27. Good evening all, after a long day’s work.

    The headline about Mr Hodgson might trigger a new puritanism in which our people and our leaders make it conceptually impossible to put out such headlines.

    This has already happened with other forms of attack such as racial, sexist and homophobic attacks.

    Liberty and License are quite close.

  28. NickP, you are amusing.

  29. @”Actually I think Ken’s shock wave will trigger a tidal wave of Tory dissatisfaction, with Labour leads getting up to 25% and more than half the voting public saying they’ll vote Lab and UKIP breathing down Con’s neck in the 20s.
    With Con terrified of the Coalition collapsing, the LD pile on the pressure and the right wing Tories furious threaten to go to UKIP.
    Lab Government within the year 100+ majority.”

    Probably what was referred to up thread as :-

    “the serial tendency of some posters on here to bring partisan titbits to the thread”

    ……..then again -perhaps not -that looks more like the whole cake :-) :-)

  30. Initially I thought Nickp`s intention was to amuse( I hope) but thinking about it,maybe his post is not that outrageous!!!

  31. @Smukesh

    Also there a small guide to voting patterns in the 2008 Mayoral Election on page 10 of tonight’s Evening Standard. It’s not enough data, sadly, but it is interesting.

    It shows how important it might be in a tight race for Ken just to do a bit better than he did last time (not difficult) in placed like Bromley, Bexley, Hillingdon and Havering. But that Ken might struggle in Islington (very good for him last time). It’s a very mixed picture for both candidates if the trace is close.

    ES see the key boroughs as Bromley, Bexley, Barnet, Lewisham, Croydon (where Boris’s reaction to the riots could hit his vote in a Con majority borough), Islington and Tower Hamlets (may have missed a couple). Not key because they are swing boroughs – the reverse – but in an election where every vote actually does count, how variations from the results last time may affect the overall result.

    I’ll give you an example. In 2008, in Bromley borough alone, Boris won by 72% to 28% on a 51.8% turnout. If the gap is lower (probably will be a little lower) or the tirnout lower (almost certainly), that could benefit Ken overall.

  32. @Adrian

    Yes, I think most of us are, predicting defeats everywhere for the lib dems, their only hope is they don’t lose as many as expected and try and spin that as people coming back etc.

    @AW

    About the london budget forgive me if I am wrong, but doesn’t Boris only need 8 seats, and even then its unlikely as i doubt the libs or ukip, or any party even would actually want to stop the budget. As far as I’m aware, they can only stop it or approve it, they can’t make changes, and until approved, London would run without a budget the gov of london would shut down, so unlikely libs or ukip would vote for that

  33. I think its 9 and the tories should get at least 7 and UKIP may get 1 or 2. LDs will deifnatley get a couple so it would be doable in a coalition if the tories cant muster the 9 (8 seems most likely)

  34. For all those Election Afficionados, our psephologists have looked at the forthcoming Greek Election – far more significant than our press coverage is suggesting.
    Follow the link:
    http://www.allthatsleft.co.uk/2012/05/the-other-elections-this-week-greece/

  35. @RAF
    I did post an article from All that`s left that suggested lower turnouts favouring Ken…It also mentioned that Ken was doing better than expected in postal votes in inner city…In 2008,the winning margin for Boris was 140000 and out of that,85000 was from Bexley and Bromley…Clearly he is not going to do as well here this time and Ken is going to narrow that gap reasonably as you say…But will Ken`s voters in inner London come out to vote or have they been out off by the tirade of negative publicity from the papers and so-called Labour grandees…

    And if the bookmakers are paying out,I cannot see how they would do that without information from postal votes…I I still believe Ken has a chance but then don`t want to be accused of being a fantasist.

  36. @Max

    Agreed. There’s no chance of Boris’s budget being blocked. Even if Labour got to 17 (or 15+2 Greens, which won’t happen) I don’t think Labour would block it either.

    The purpose of the GLA is like a House of Lord’s to the Mayor’s House of Commons, albeit with even more limited powers. The real power rests with the Mayor. That’s why winning the Mayoral contest is more important than wining the GLA contest. Councillors are more important than members of the GLA.

  37. @Smukesh

    Well, it’s a relative argument. Lower turnouts in Ken boroughs will not help him at all.

    I don’t think the bookies have seen the postal votes, nor that they are that relevant TBH. Its a tiny percentage the electorate. They have been going on polls, as the odds have fluctuated with each new one.

  38. @Smukesh

    I’ll tell you what – I’ll ask about turnout when I vote in Bromley Town tomorrow evening. They’ll probably tell me to get lost but it’s worth a try!

  39. @RAF
    `They’ll probably tell me to get lost but it’s worth a try!`

    If there was a sweet lady at the booth, and you turn on your charm,maybe it will work…Am sure she will just tell me to sod off : )

  40. i was just wondering,is there any polling that supports the
    idea that labour supporters do not turn out in bad weather?It is pouring with rain in South Wales at the
    moment.As I have said previously one would not know
    anything was going on tomorrow around here.So I am
    beginning to think that a very low turnout is going to be an
    important factor tomorrow.

  41. Raf/Smukesh,

    You may be right, Ken might win.
    But you could save a lot of bother by not speculating about helpful turnouts, rain, postal votes, man I met on tube, etc.

    I say again, Ken might win. The polls suggest otherwise. There’s an awful lot of ‘tea leaves’ being bandied about on a polling site….

  42. SMUKESH

    @”don`t want to be accused of being a fantasist.”

    On this thread ?……..no chance.

  43. If this page is reflective of media focusing on London and nothing else then the Cons will have done a good job with spinning.

    We may see reporting along the lines of ‘Our correspondent in Wales says that despite very good results for Labour a defeated candidate who was once a councillor for 4 years has called for ed Milliband to go as Ken Livingstone did not win in London’

    ‘And lets go around the country to get the latest from our regional teams on how Boris’s win is going down in their part of the country’

  44. @Raf (FPT)
    “The consensus is …… Labour will get close to 50% in Wales.”

    Not my view at least. The YouGov poll says 48% but in the Assembly elections last year the Lab vote share was overstated by a few % points in similar polls. In the end Labour just scraped 30 Assembly seats whereas they looked to be in line for 31-33 based on all the polling. So maybe something around 45% is more realistic. Still very good for local elections.

    Labour look set to retake Cardiff Council from the Lib Dems though. The 121 respondents in Cardiff split Con 17%, Lab 42%, LD 12% (!), Plaid 16%, Independents 6%. Even with a bit of slippage that could be decisive.

  45. Raf,

    My apologies. It was of course NickP….

  46. Latest on the betting on Labour seat gains market (Paddy Power).

    800 or more: Evens (started at 8/13)
    Under 800: 8/11 (started at 11/10)

    Those look to be much more realistic odds than when I tipped Under 800 at 11/10 a couple of days ago. They suggest that something in the range 700-800 represents the current balance of expectations, amongst the betting public at least.

    That said, this expectations game all seems a bit contrived. Rather than being an objective judgement of improvement or decline, performance is based against expectations using unproven opinion polls. For my part, from the red corner, I prefer to form a judgement in terms of how the results measure up to similar elections in 2011. In other words, is Labour are polling significantly better than last year when ballots are actually cast. On such a basis, anything over 600 would represent a good performance and over 700 would be very good.

  47. And here’s one that Nick P must surely regard as a snip given earlier comments.

    Labour to gain 1000 seats AND hold Glasgow Council AND Ken to be mayor (Paddy Power)

    40/1

    Even though I’m not tempted, those aren’t that bad odds, when you think about it, because the three outcomes aren’t independent. That is, if, in the very unlikely event that Labour do gain 1000 seats, they’ll have to have exceeded all expectations across the UK as a whole. In which case it would be quite reasonable to expect them to have picked up rather than lost seats in Scotland, and also for Ken to have defied expectations.

  48. DA tells GO that he has found 2,000 senior public officials on more than £58,200 being paid “off payroll”,on the service company tax / NI saving scam.

    That doesn’t include LAs.

    Astounding.

  49. @Colin

    If that’s just in part of the public sector, how many more might there be in the private sector?

  50. Messi equals Gerd Muller. Two.penalties, mind.

    @Colin

    Does not surprise me at all.

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