Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of LAB 41%, CON 32%, LDEM 9%, so we are back to somewhat more usual figures after the unusually low Labour lead yesterday and the unusually low Tory vote share on Saturday.

This morning there was also a YouGov Welsh poll – a rare creature indeed. Topline voting intention figures were as follows:

Westminster (change since 2010 GE): CON 23%(-3), LAB 50%(+14), LD 7%(-13), PC 12%(+1)
Welsh Assembly constituency (change since 2011): CON 19%(-6), LAB 48%(+6), LD 7%(-4), PC 18%(-1)
Welsh Assembly regional (change since 2011): CON 13%(-10), LAB 33%(-4), LD 9%(+1), PC 22%(+4)

More topically there were voting intention figures for the Welsh local elections this Thursday. Topline figures with changes from 2008 when Welsh local councils were last fought are CON 17%(+1), LAB 48%(+21), LDEM 7%(-6), PC 14% (-3), Independents and Others 15%(-12). The figure for independents and others seems a bit low – independent candidates got 23% of the vote at the last Welsh local elections – but that may be a result of people in areas dominated by independents saying how they would like to be able to vote if they had party candidates in their ward. Either way, it suggests Labour will have a good night in Wales on Thursday.


178 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 32%, LAB 41%, LDEM 9%”

1 2 3 4
  1. @ Nick P

    “Depends how committed Labour voters are to voting for Boris. I assume not very!”

    Are there any other races on the ballot?

    It seems like rain (unless it’s of biblical proportions) isn’t something that’s going to bother Brits.

    Polls could be off in the race just because the whole second preference part of IRV is complicated and difficult to understand. (It really does not belong in an election for the public).

  2. Nickp
    Salmond is giving his all for Murdoch.

  3. @tingedfringe, Phil
    It is not just the leaflets…

    Popped onto LDV and wow… lol

    J

  4. “The good thing about politics is that it attracts people who think they can make a difference… Unfortunately it also attracts far more people who think ONLY they can make a difference”…

    Similarly, I think you’ll find that –

    “The good thing about ACADEMIA is that it attracts people who think they can make a difference… Unfortunately it also attracts far more people who think ONLY they can make a difference”…

  5. Yes, I think it’s clear we should not be having people like Murdoch with such close links to politicians, and I think any party that has such links isn’t in the position it used to be. As NickP says, DC defending himself by saying that Blair and Brown were just as bad also implies the current government is no better, that can’t be such a good thing to say. No wonder people are turning towards UKIP.

  6. If Ed Miliband were to write an open letter, such as this, would it help his poll ratings ?

    Dear Rupert

    I am sorry for this unusual request, but given the current circumstances, can you please confirm that News International newspapers will not be offering any support to the Labour party before the next General Election.

    Your Sincerely

    Ed

    PS. If you can ask the editors of your news titles, to run complimentary stories on both the Tories and Lib Dems, as well as glowing editorials, that would be very helpful. In particular if you have any pictures of Mr Cameron and Ms Brooks out riding together, that would make a lovely front page.

  7. A decent summary of the situation North of the border:

    h ttp://www.scotsman.com/news/john-curtice-snp-may-give-labour-pains-1-2268409

  8. @R Huckle

    “If Ed Miliband were to write an open letter, such as this, would it help his poll ratings ?”

    Your fictional letter is a tour de force! I’ve thought for some time, and I don’t know whether it was luck or judgement on Miliband’s part, or a bit of both, but I think, politically, he is bang on the right side of the argument on the slowly unfolding Murdoch saga. I would think that being an enemy of the Murdoch empire is now akin to being a friend of the people and I have a feeling that the four Tories on the Commons Select Committee have hitched their party’s colours to a very wobbly wagon. In many ways, it has provided Miliband with a perfect opportunity to sever his party from some of the more unsavoury links with the Blair and Brown legacy. It can do him no harm.

    As for tomorrows various elections, I love it when democracy comes to town. Real votes in real elections and, allowing for the normal caveats on low turnouts and local peculiarities, many millions of our fellow countrymen will be out voting tomorrow. I shall be doing a bit of late leafleting this evening (A “good morning on polling day” message so, Santa like, I’m hoping to arrive after the household has gone to bed!), and we have high hopes of regaining control of our local council after a gap of six years or more. We, Labour that is, held it for 20 or so years before then but we suffered grievously from 2007 onwards.

    Whatever the outcome of all the voting tomorrow, let’s all give praise to the power of the ballot box!

  9. @NickP

    DC is not playing it badly he is stating the obvious. I suspect the general public think both major parties have been too close to NI but either do not care or if they do blame both equally.

    Watson lost a lot of credibility yesterday, his hatred is obvious to all.

    Polls interesing, Labour will do well but I do suspect that they are beginning to come off a high point.

  10. And a quick glance at the battles, with predictions:

    h ttp://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/scottish-council-elections-the-battles-to-win-scotland-s-towns-and-cities-1-2268475

  11. @RAF

    The story about Frank McAveety is true – I still don’t know why he didn’t say “I’m really sorry; I lost track of time eating my lunch.” End of story.

    Strangely he was sacked/had to resign because of it!! He was hounded by the SNP to be sacked/resign yet they feel they don’t need to answer any questions, let alone sack people, because of the Murdoch affair.

  12. On the local elections in Scotland. The SNP want North Lanarkshire and Glasgow (particularly Glasgow). The SNP seem to have stopped concentrating on NLC and focussing all their efforts on GCC.

    Two reasons:

    1. They know they are going to get the best result they can in NL and so there is no point throwing more money (this could be that they know NL is definitely coming to them or definitely not)

    2. They feel GCC slipping and so are trying harder to get it at the expense of NLC.

    I expect the SNP to have good days on Thurs/Fri across Scotland. As a Labour supporter it saddens me that holding GCC and NLC will be seen as a victory.

  13. Anthony.

    I just wanted to thank you for the preview which was very interesting.

  14. DO THE LIBERALS FIGHT DIRTY?

    [Snip – we’ve been here before, it only ends in a rather tiresome exchange of anecdotes about how nasty the other side are. They is no way of quantifying it, so it just becomes a bout of partisan-whataboutery. Let’s stop it before it begins – AW]

  15. @ Anthony Wells.

    Fine by me!
    While we are on the subject of quantification, any chance we could have some data on how many people access this site, esp. in a run-up to elections?.

  16. Robbie – right about now its around 35,000 pageviews a day from about 11,000 different users.

    In the run up to a general election it goes completely nuts – on election day 2010 there were 312,000 page views from 72,000 different people. In the month leading up to the 2010 general election there were 6 million page views from 700,000 different people.

  17. “In the month leading up to the 2010 general election there were 6 million page views from 700,000 different people.”

    In that case…vote for me folks. I’ll abolish tax, quadruple wages, and introduce the 1-day week. :)

  18. STATGEEK

    Come on… vote for me….I think I know more than God and there’s no debate about my existence….or is there?

  19. ToH, you may be right or wrong about Watson but pease remember NI or NOTW put PDs watching him and his family so for him it is personal as well as political.

    In the same way we don’t have victims judge crimes perhaps the Labour Party could say, Tom done great work brought issue in to the open more than othere any MP etc but from now on he will take a back seat as a LP representative on this issue although he is still free to speak in a persoanl capacity of course.

  20. Your website is extremely influential Anthony.
    :-)

  21. I said as much yesterday, hes done great work but now just looks bitter, vindictive and personal rather than professional. Its time he moved on to something else.

  22. joe

    “…now just looks bitter, vindictive and personal rather than professional”

    To you, perhaps. Not to me.

  23. @JimJam

    “In the same way we don’t have victims judge crimes perhaps the Labour Party could say, Tom done great work brought issue in to the open more than othere any MP etc but from now on he will take a back seat as a LP representative on this issue although he is still free to speak in a persoanl capacity of course.”

    I think you’re right. It may now be time for Watson to take a far less prominent role, and while his campaigning on this issue has been tireless, brave and highly effective, we may be getting to a stage where his continued high profile involvement is giving Murdoch a bit of an alibi. As his organisation is already slyly starting to do, they are suggesting that Watson is allowing his personal vendetta against them to rail-road the work of what should be an objective and non-partisan Commons Select Committee. This, in turn, allows them to invalidate the Committee’s final report and undermine the credibility of the whole process.

    Maybe time for Tom to return to the backbenches for a while, I think. His work has been done and he is in danger of entering a stage where the law of diminishing returns applies.

  24. The LibDem on ‘Daily Politics’ just rubbished YouGov for giving them a low VI, Anthony.

  25. Are we allowed to be partisan over polling firms?

    C’MON YGOV…STICK IT TO THOSE OVERBLOWN COMRES PIKERS!!!!!

  26. Interesting that Clegg has just come out in support of Tom Watson’s position on Murdoch – surprising I think even though of course there was a LD on the committee who held the same view. High stakes being played for, maybe TW’s gamble will pay off..

  27. I do remember last year at Local Election time that the YG poll was way off in terms of predicting local swings.

    In one sense this shouldn’t be surprising since YG asks a GE VI question (and people will vote differently at local level), but other companies who were posting closer Con/Lab VI figures and higher LDs scores, were actually a lot closer to the ACTUAL national share of the vote.

    @ AW, does YG do a “how will you vote in the local elections” Q around now? And would it give an idea of seats?

  28. The Lib Dems can kick Murdoch all they like and it is very hard for the Cons to level the “partisan” accusation at them.

    And if they are not being partisan saying RM is not fit and proper, then how can Lab be?

    Tricky for the Tories…

  29. Vince Cable was mocked for getting caught ‘waging war on Murdoch’.

    He is an important, highly visible member of the LibDem team. It is important to the future of the LDs that Vince Cable regains/ retains his credibility.

    By ‘allowing’ David Cameron to replace VC with Jeremy Hunt, Nick Clegg looked a bit weak & disloyal to his own team, IMO, especially given the conduct of JH’s department when the BSkyB bid was ongoing.

    The report of the select committee is an opportunity for Nick Clegg to redeem himself, in the non-Murdoch media, by strongly backing the censure which was included in the report.

    However, Nick Clegg is known for talking a good game then failing to put his whip where his mouth is. Ed M needs to be certain he has the LDs on-side before asking for a vote in the HoC.
    8-)

  30. Just been watching Louise Mensche on the Daily Politics calling for Government funding to help troubled ailing local newspapers.

    The underlining agenda is that these local rags are a great source of Tory support and without them another level of Conservative propaganda is lost.

  31. The best thing Cameron could do is come out and anounce that agrees with the report in full, and agrees that Murdoch is not fit to run a tap.

    That would take the wind out of Labour’s sails…and be the right thing to do.

    Wonder why he doesn’t?

  32. Adrian –

    YouGov did a local election poll last year that was pretty much identical to the BBC’s PNS (it was slightly different compared to the Rallings & Thrasher ENV, as the two don’t always match). GE voting intention isn’t supposed to match local election shares – they are different things and people vote differently!

    I’m not sure if we are doing a similar local poll or not this year (as in past years, I am in BBC rehearsals for the election night coverage, so am not working on YouGov’s final polling.)

    Andyo – As Mandy Rice Davies once said “Well, he would, wouldn’t he?”

  33. Paul Bristol –

    I’ve never seem any data on partisanship of local newspapers. Given Trinity Mirror are the biggest regional newspaper business I wouldn’t imagine it was hugely Tory.

  34. Local rag here is fiercely Labour-biased. There is the Mps name on every page! I dont see that tbh. I wouldnt save local newspapers though, if the public valued them they wouldnt be going bust.

  35. @Joe

    “Local rag here is fiercely Labour-biased”

    You want to hang on to that, it must be some sort of a collectors item!!

  36. THE OTHER HOWARD

    @”Watson lost a lot of credibility yesterday, his hatred is obvious to all.”

    Yep. His conduct on the Select Committee has been an insult. With a different Chairman he would not have been allowed his cynical attitude.

    It’s up to Leveson now to pass a rational judgement on the Murdochs.

    The Times leader today says that if Watson had wanted to pass judgment on RP’s fitness to run a business , he should have realised that his career didn’t begin in 2005 & question him accordingly- he would have had to consider the thousands of jobs he has created in a lifelong commitment to journalism, and his role in conceiving & delivering satellite broadcasting to a mass audience & creating revenue streams for Premiership Football clubs.

    That the embittered Labour response would be -THe Times would say that wouldn’t it?-merely emphasises that without RM, The Times’ losses would have brought it to an end.

    As the Times says, NI has a lot to answer for , but it takes a different sort of willful blindness to deny that rival partisan & commercial interests have been a factor. I was pleased to hear DC say on Marr that lobbying by & contact with other newspaper groups -and the BBC-have been a factor for all politicians.

  37. Watson is a nasty piece of work.
    A lib Dem style activist in the Labour party.

    I hope they go on like this though, focusing on trivia.

  38. Oh dear. Watson is the villain and Murdoch a saint.

    Who was lying, Mensch or Watson…a question raised in the Telegraph.

    oh…and answered in the Guardian.

    Link got moderated.

  39. Incidentally on the lobbying by other media groups…I seem to remember in the first 12 months as PM, Cameron met NI reps dozens of times in all sorts of settings…and the BBC once.

    Not a safe argument for him to pursue.

  40. JJB

    @”I hope they go on like this though, focusing on trivia.”

    Yes.

    Mention of the regional press upthread reminded me that, IMO the most riveting part of RM’s testimony before Leveson was his bleak view of the future of the dead tree press-particularly regional print media.

    In this context the Committee of which Watson is a member reported on “Future for local and
    regional media” in 2010.

    Among their recommendations for helping stem the decline in regional newspapers was a relaxation of cross media ownership restrictions. !! :-)

  41. @”Murdoch a saint.”

    He’s no saint.

    Nor is Watson.

  42. Watson may not be a saint, but does that make him a nasty piece of work?

    Surely you are mixing him up with Murdoch, who actually IS a nasty piece of work.

  43. @ Colin

    When a ‘game’ is mired by foul play, how many yellow cards do you give the ring-leader before you red-card him?

    The News International team got several warnings before they were red-carded. I never thought of Murdoch as a whinger but I do now.

    Murdoch should’ve surprised everybody by gracefully & ‘regretfully’ accepting the findings of the select committee but stressed that, in his opinion, Ofcom have a different remit & are independent of Parliament; & he fully expects to be able to make a convincing case to Ofcom that he is a fit & proper person etc.
    8-)

  44. The danger in the Watson line is what do you do if the independent regulator doesn’t agree with MP’s and decided Murdoch is fit and proper.

    Do you just accept that or call for the government to over rule the regulator in effect deciding that MP’s should take a direct role in overseeing the media.

    There is always a problem when you cross the line from Parliament making the regulations and to it actually administering them.

    I don’t like Murdoch, indeed I think he is untrustworthy and manipulative man, but then I think the same about Watson.

    They probably deserve each other… Sort of Nixon meets Macarthy so to speak.

    A plague on both their houses , an arch manipulator being quizzed by a committee being manipulated by one of its members.

    Cllr Peter Cairns (SNP).

  45. Watson is generally on the list of people letting the Labour side down. Its been interesting to see a lot of ex-Labour ministers out recently on the political shows – such a huge contrast to the current Tory lot.

    Watson is no better, in fact hes worse. The way hes acting shows hes not paid any attention to why Labour got such a big defeat in Scotland.

  46. I find this anti-Watson thread most odd? The man was vilified by the Murdoch press for years, including a smear against his sexuality (as if that had any relevance). He was finally proved to be right and now some people are accussing him of being as bad as Murdoch? Lets remind ourselves Murdoch ran/runs a company that repeatedly broke the law, just as Watson claimed.

  47. Notice the BBC have fallen for UKIP’s disengenuous trick of including parish councillors in their figure for total number of councillors, leading the BBC to claim that UKIP have over 100 councillors. The true figure is less than a quarter of that.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-17908386

  48. It’s where the Tories are going wrong generally, they can’t get out of the habit of defending Murdoch or vilifying his enemies.

    Even as their support evaporates.

  49. This thread is becoming increasingly uncivil. Given we actually have lots of actual elections tomorrow, let’s draw a line under it and perhaps discuss them…

  50. @Fraser,
    I think if more politicians had the strength of their convictions and stood up against the large corporate greed that seems to have spread its roots into politics more people may, just may, start believing them again.

1 2 3 4