Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of LAB 41%, CON 32%, LDEM 9%, so we are back to somewhat more usual figures after the unusually low Labour lead yesterday and the unusually low Tory vote share on Saturday.

This morning there was also a YouGov Welsh poll – a rare creature indeed. Topline voting intention figures were as follows:

Westminster (change since 2010 GE): CON 23%(-3), LAB 50%(+14), LD 7%(-13), PC 12%(+1)
Welsh Assembly constituency (change since 2011): CON 19%(-6), LAB 48%(+6), LD 7%(-4), PC 18%(-1)
Welsh Assembly regional (change since 2011): CON 13%(-10), LAB 33%(-4), LD 9%(+1), PC 22%(+4)

More topically there were voting intention figures for the Welsh local elections this Thursday. Topline figures with changes from 2008 when Welsh local councils were last fought are CON 17%(+1), LAB 48%(+21), LDEM 7%(-6), PC 14% (-3), Independents and Others 15%(-12). The figure for independents and others seems a bit low – independent candidates got 23% of the vote at the last Welsh local elections – but that may be a result of people in areas dominated by independents saying how they would like to be able to vote if they had party candidates in their ward. Either way, it suggests Labour will have a good night in Wales on Thursday.

178 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 32%, LAB 41%, LDEM 9%”

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    `But you could save a lot of bother by not speculating about helpful turnouts, rain, postal votes, man I met on tube, et`

    Am glad you have been following my posts…Is Labour supporters speculating about a Ken win any different from Tory supporters speculating about a swift recovery after the local elections leading to a big Tory majority?The evidence in both cases suggest otherwise!!!Shame you haven`t included that in your criticism!!!

  2. By the way, Paddy Power who is paying out on Boris points out that he also paid out early on Harry Redknapp being next England manager.

  3. @Ray North

    Thanks for that piece on the Greek election. I fully agree with your conclusion:
    “It is an election of potentially massive and somewhat scary significance. The top up 50 seats for New Democracy may well lead to a crisis in democratic legitimacy if a New Democracy led government on a risibly small percentage of the vote,continues with austerity measures rejected by the majority of voters.”

  4. NICKP

    By the way, Paddy Power who is paying out on Boris points out that he also paid out early on Harry Redknapp being next England manager.

    Is that like throwing good money after bad….

    I’ll be watching Sheffield tomorrow night…..

  5. @ Phil, Nick P

    I think Paddy Power only pays out ahead of the result to folks with an account then they can claw it back, if they are wrong e.g. Harry Redknapp.

    Or am I mistaken; do they actually pay out cash to ‘walk-ins’ before they know the actual result?

  6. Messi has scored again by the way and has now surpassed gerd muller’s record of 67 goals in a european season.

  7. Surprised we haven’t had a rumour about the YG Mayoral.poll. Maybe YG are super busy ad they have two.polls to.prepare for tonight.

  8. @Amber Star
    Sorry, I don’t know.

    But maybe they regard the prospect of a loss as the equivalent of an advertising budget – i.e. a gamble on the small possibility of a loss v the benefits of lots of free publicity.

  9. Hey guys,

    Predictions tomorrow.
    London: Johnson wina tight contest. But Labour win the most GLA seats reflecting 2015 constituencies. GOTV in a rain-sodden capital will be key.

    England: Labour make big gains in the areas they need to win a majority at next GE. Tories take hits in swing areas like my neck of the woods (West Midlands) and hold heartlands, LD’s take hits but not as bad as last year. UKIP will have a decent night too.

    Scotland. SNP will get bigger share but fail to take control of Glasgow. Decent Labour showing will please Lamount. Tories and Libs will go no-where.

    Wales: Good night for Labour. Tories, Libs and Plaid will struggle here.

    Mayoral referendums. Most of the cities involved will vote yes.


  10. @AW
    ` There is a YouGov final call in tomorrow’s Evening Standard, I am not aware of any other London polls still to come`

    Is it actually allowed to publish polling in the middle of election day?

  11. amber

    I think once they’ve paid out, it’s paid out. There’s no claw-back.

    So if they are paying out on Boris, they might have to pay out on Ken as well on Saturday.

    ho hum

  12. Smukesh – the Evening Standard normally do it! MORI’s final general election poll, for example, came out on general election day in the Standard.

    Legally, one cannot publish results of an exit poll (or any poll conducted amongst people who have already voted) until the polls have closed. There is nothing wrong with publishing polls conducted before the polls opened on election day.

  13. So AW, do you ask people if they’ve voted by post when conducting polls near elections?

  14. My prediction for tomorrow is that the Lib/Dems in Scotland will hang onto St Kilda but as a minority administration.. ;)

  15. Smukesh,

    I am under no illusions that an economic recovery will herald a Tory majority in 2015. No facts or polls upon which to base that view…….
    I’d say more, but your enthusiasm for Livingstone precludes me from going further….your tea leaves could be right !

    Good luck tomorrow…..if Ken comes up trumps then I’ll choke on my humble pie… ;-)

  16. Odds on Labour gains changing further

    Under 800 now down to 4/7
    800 or more now up to 6/5

    Betting consensus moving down to around 700?

  17. Conservatives down to 2/5 to have more seat losses than LDs.
    LDs going out to 17/10.

  18. Sun Politics twitter

    Lab 43%, Con 33%, LD 8%, UKIP 8%

  19. I hope you guys are happy, I just made my first ever bet!

    Labour treble, Ken for Mayor, Jenny to take third, and under 800 seats (because I’m a realist).

    Here’s hoping!

  20. TheSheep – Yes, we do, and count those people as definite to vote.

    This was something of a grey area. In the 2004 European elections, when some regions were postal only, the police apparently looked into a Populus poll in the Times as it had voting intention figures for those regions with postal votes, where people would already have voted.

    The Electoral Commission and the British Polling Council looked into it to come up with guidance about what was acceptable. Pollsters can include people who have already voted by post in samples and report findings including those people… but we are not supposed to report findings based purely on them (i.e. we should not say anything like “amongst those people who have already voted by post support was x%”)

  21. @Phil

    So 10% going into election day.

    Lab will hope that equates to 15+ in London

  22. YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Lab 43%, Con 33%, Lib Dem 8%, UKIP 8%. Labour a 10 point lead going into local polls, Libs/UKIP tied on 3rd

  23. Good debate in France – Sarko has not landed any blows that will change the polls imho.

    Nice to see a f2f debate between candidates without too much staging.

    Sarko trying to a void mentioning Germany! Also, not happy when Hollande mentioned ‘votre ami Silvio Berlusconi’!

  24. Peter Oborne in the Telegraph is saying Rebeka Brookes has saved all the texts nessages she got from Cameron – up to 12 a day, he says, and Leveson may well look at these.

    That would be fun.

  25. @BAZC
    “Sarko trying to a void mentioning Germany! Also, not happy when Hollande mentioned ‘votre ami Silvio Berlusconi’! ”

    :) But it’s true!

    A sarky comment from Hollande. And they say he doesn’t have a sense of humour…

  26. Good Evening All

    Yes, the text messages may be fun or not.

    RAF and BIG JOHN.
    Thanks for the figures, interesting times. But not a GE, and maybe the Lib Dems will have a formal alliance with their Conservative partners.

  27. I suspect the texts from Dave to Becks will be more squirmingly embarrassing than fun.

    Bearing in mind that she made a living hacking phones to gather stories to embarrass other people, it’s highly unlikely she would be stupid enough to incriminate herself over the same medium.

    But you never know!

  28. Never understimate how stupid people can be

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