Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of LAB 41%, CON 32%, LDEM 9%, so we are back to somewhat more usual figures after the unusually low Labour lead yesterday and the unusually low Tory vote share on Saturday.

This morning there was also a YouGov Welsh poll – a rare creature indeed. Topline voting intention figures were as follows:

Westminster (change since 2010 GE): CON 23%(-3), LAB 50%(+14), LD 7%(-13), PC 12%(+1)
Welsh Assembly constituency (change since 2011): CON 19%(-6), LAB 48%(+6), LD 7%(-4), PC 18%(-1)
Welsh Assembly regional (change since 2011): CON 13%(-10), LAB 33%(-4), LD 9%(+1), PC 22%(+4)

More topically there were voting intention figures for the Welsh local elections this Thursday. Topline figures with changes from 2008 when Welsh local councils were last fought are CON 17%(+1), LAB 48%(+21), LDEM 7%(-6), PC 14% (-3), Independents and Others 15%(-12). The figure for independents and others seems a bit low – independent candidates got 23% of the vote at the last Welsh local elections – but that may be a result of people in areas dominated by independents saying how they would like to be able to vote if they had party candidates in their ward. Either way, it suggests Labour will have a good night in Wales on Thursday.


178 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 32%, LAB 41%, LDEM 9%”

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  1. First!!! :)

  2. Should be including UKIP figures routinely now – they can’t be far behind the LDs

  3. Looks like Labour are romping it in Wales at the expense of everyone else.

    UK wise the Libs are back to single figures..business as usual.. :)

  4. Looks like Labour could win Cardiff and Swansea. They will be very pleased if that happens!!!

  5. Pete Whitehead
    Should be including UKIP figures routinely now – they can’t be far behind the LDs
    ______

    Who knows but if UKIP out poll the Libs in the locals then your wish might come true!!

  6. @ The Sheep (from the previous thread)

    “Indeed they do, everyone gathers around the returning officer and stares knowingly at the papers as they are declared for one candidate or another or are ruled out. One of my favourite bits of the count.”

    Really? Watching over a similar process on Sunday made my stomach turn into knots from pure nerves.

  7. “Who knows but if UKIP out poll the Libs in the locals then your wish might come true!!”

    That’s not going to happen cos too few candidates, but regularly polling close to LDs in opinion polls now and sometimes above

  8. Anyone know what UKIP are? Bit ridiculous to not mention them since they have been polling fairly high lately.

  9. Pete Whitehead.

    Yeah I totally agree with you, UKIP have been polling just behind and above the Libs constantly now for a while and it would be interesting to see UKIP included in the figures.

    Maybe you should drop A W a wee email… ;)

  10. RAF and Allan Christie:

    On the SNP’s expectations, yes, SNP do believe they have it in the bag, it’s what’s been talked about for weeks in SNP HQ. Labour won’t bomb in Scotland, and I think the SNP might have hit their zenith, but one thing they’re definitely gunning for is Glasgow, and they expect to get it.

    Also, from experience, LDs do tend to be dirty locally. I remember getting chatted to by a canvasser at my door as they gave me the LD leaflet, and when I looked at it and seen they had given me one with an incorrectly labelled graph showing LD just behind Labour in my constituency in the previous election. It was actually the european election, and when I pointed this out, the canvasser shrugged and said it’s still a two horse race.

    Yes, yes it was, but the LDs were not in it.

  11. Not convinced it is ‘in the bag’ for the SNP in Glasgow, they might even come in just behind Labour. Let us wait and see.

  12. Just crossbreaks, but it looks like a return of the female problem for No 10… twice as many voting Lab than Con… and then of course there are the C2DEs.

    I wonder whether they have time for crisis sessions with their pollster atm, or are too busy with routine firefighting.

    Haven’t been watching the age breaks recently – but has there been a big swing among the 25-39 group?

  13. I hate to be rude, but presumably others are at 18 % tonight, they were only 15 % yesterday. Surely this polling report is not worth much if it ignores 18 %? I’m beginning to question the value of this website beside a main headline.

  14. On a local note, I’ve had two leaflet drops in the past two weeks here in Fife. Last week was an SNP drop, and this week, an SNP drop (tonight as it happens, and dropped off by the Councillor himself).

    If votes were based soley on leaflet drops, I would be voting SNP twice and no one else. What leaflet drops are others getting?

  15. I’m not saying it is CL, just pointing out what they expect. If Lab manage to do as well as many expect AND hold Glasgow, it will be a terrific night for them. Not even a BJ win would take the shine off that.

  16. scotswaehae

    The SNP might still be upbeat about Glasgow after doing well in the city at the Scottish elections but in all honestly I haven’t seen anything from them saying they will win Glasgow. Yes some pro SNP blogs have big expectations on the SNP but officially??

    Och aye on them Libs, I get it too. The area of Edinburgh I stay in the Libs are still saying its a two horse race between them and Labour…Nothing changes locally about the Libs…Just the same old myths fae the Libs!! ;)

  17. Speaking as a Labour supporter, it is pleasant to have Anthony describe 7% as “an unusually small Labour lead” – it’s been a solid month or so for Labour in most opinion polls. If Boris does hold on to the London mayoralty, the party will hope that it doesn’t take too much of the shine off its current national position.

  18. There seems to have been a slight narrowing of the polls, and I can’t figure out what would have brought it about.

    In other news it’s 15 years to the day since Labour’s landslide victory.

  19. STATGEEK

    I’ve had one each from the SNP (who is my local councilor) Labour and the Greens.

    The Libs crafty, they disguise their leaflet as an official city of Edinburgh press release from the Council in the format of a newspaper.

  20. Ah, just found it, UKIP are 8 %. I think in the interest of impartiality it is time for UKIP to be treated as a main party that is prompted for. Unless this happens then the poll is distorted in my opinion.

  21. @ Jim

    UKIP are 8%.

    If you’d like me to provide directions to the YG tables, where you can see all sorts of interesting stuff, just let me know & I’ll write it out for you. :-)

  22. Hannah

    “In other news it’s 15 years to the day since Labour’s landslide victory”
    _______

    Crikey someone crack open the creamola foam.. ;)

  23. @ Jim

    Oops, crossed posts. I didn’t see yours before I launched mine.

  24. @ Scotswaehae

    “Also, from experience, LDs do tend to be dirty locally. I remember getting chatted to by a canvasser at my door as they gave me the LD leaflet, and when I looked at it and seen they had given me one with an incorrectly labelled graph showing LD just behind Labour in my constituency in the previous election. It was actually the european election, and when I pointed this out, the canvasser shrugged and said it’s still a two horse race.”

    Is that dirty or just an unintentional oversight from a disorganized and understaffed campaign running on fumes? From the one time I actually worked on a campaign as a paid staffer, canvassers always would scare me a little bit because you didn’t know what they would do in the field (and fortunately, we didn’t have much doorknocking, we had more phone banking where you could monitor people) in terms of how they acted and what they would say and do. Canvassers who act rudely to people can turn off potential voters like no other.

    This is ot but I had an incredible experience on Sunday that you’ll appreciate (I think). A man came up to me at my caucus who turned out to be a fellow candidate for the same Delegate position I was running for. He introduced himself to me and his young son who was like 6 years old. He told me he had voted for me (even though I was unable to vote for him) simply because I had put down on my campaign flyer that I was an LGBT Civil Rights Activist and wanted to introduce his son to me specifically because of that. I tell you, I was totally flattered but like a little embarassed by it because the praise isn’t really deserved (I’m not exactly Bayard Rustin here) and also because I had committed to voting for others (and not him). But I was really touched that this man wanted his son to grow up with a sense of equality and understanding of the struggle for civil rights.

  25. Got to love the moral indignance about “the other side’s” behaviour in elections….Burns comes to mind once again………..
    “O wad some Pow’r the giftie gie us
    To see oursels as ithers see us!”

  26. In 2011, we received the “its neck and neck between Lab and the LDs” varient of the LD leaflet here, clearly aiming for Conservative votes. About a millimetre between the size of the Lab and LD bars, with next to nothing for the Cons.

    The LDs came 3rd, with 14%. They seem to have given up this year.

  27. The Libs are so desperate for votes they’ve even been canvasing the Pandas at Edinburgh Zoo….

  28. Not sure if this is true or not (Newsnet Scotland), but it is pure comedy gold. It concerns a prospective Labour councillor for Glasgow:

    ” Mr McAveety was previously best known for controversy over his ‘battle bus’ and for having to apologise to Holyrood for wrongly informing Parliament he had been delayed by his attendance at an arts council awards event.  He had in fact been eating pie and beans in the Holyrood cafeteria.”

  29. @ Amber Star , thanks for the help! I just found the actual YouGov site so plenty of interesting information. I cannot believe what I have been missing :)

  30. UKIP’s VI appears to be fairly stable, 8%-9%, that seems to me enough not to be treated as a normal “other”. If not, then we perhaps should then be asking why the LD’s aren’t lumped in with the “others” too? What an ignominy that would be.

  31. The reason that UKIP are not prompted for, even though they are getting higher percentages than the LibDems, is that historically when you prompt for a smaller party they poll higher than the actual election results.

    Pollster’s want their results to reflect actual results so they are wary of anything that would effect the result.

    Until such times as UKIP out poll the Libdems in a real election they won’t be prompted for routinely and it won’t be after this election because they are fielding far too candidates to overhaul the LibDems.

    They will be prompted for in 2014 for the Euros because they have a track record there of their prompted poll score matching their actual result, but nowhere else.

    Poll watchers and UKIP supporters might not like that or think it is unfair but poling companies are not there to be fair, they are there to predict actual results.

    Cllr Peter Cairns (SNP).

  32. @ Hannah

    “In other news it’s 15 years to the day since Labour’s landslide victory.”

    It’s also one year to the day that Osama Bin Laden was brought to justice. I can’t believe how quickly the time flew by either.

  33. @ALLAN CHRISTIE

    “The Libs crafty, they disguise their leaflet as an official city of Edinburgh press release from the Council in the format of a newspaper.”

    Labour did that here in the run up to the 2011 SP elections. Political inclinations aside, I didn’t care for it.

  34. I hope Labour has a good night in Wales on Thursday! I still don’t expect to get voted onto the town council. I genuinely believe it’ll be 5 Labour, 1 Tory and I’ll be the Labour candidate to fall. Can’t wait though to put the X next to my own name, how exciting :)

  35. This week, the folk at Policy Exchange have produced an absolute telephone directory of a report on what the voters are thinking. Called Northern Lights, it takes as its starting point the remarkable gap between attitudes in the North and South, to the point where every single socio-economic category in the South, from DEs up to ABs, is more likely to vote Tory than even the most highly educated, highest-earning Northerners.

    So what’s going on? Building on Fraser Nelson’s idea of “Tricolour Britain” – Scot Nats to the north, Tories to the south and Labour in the middle – authors Neil O’Brien and Anthony Wells (of YouGov) argue that it isn’t so much about regional prejudice, and it’s definitely not about class.
    ——————————
    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/robertcolvile/100154705/what-do-the-voters-really-want-tony-blair/

    Headline of the article will make Chris Lane & Rob Sheffield :-)

    Nevertheless, worth a look because there’s links to The Policy Exchange & the report.

    Can we look forward to something on UKPR about this, Anthony?
    8-)

  36. @ March on down the Line

    “I hope Labour has a good night in Wales on Thursday! I still don’t expect to get voted onto the town council. I genuinely believe it’ll be 5 Labour, 1 Tory and I’ll be the Labour candidate to fall. Can’t wait though to put the X next to my own name, how exciting :)”

    That IS exciting!! What’s it like being a candidate? Are the results announced with all of the candidates on stage with results being read at one time? I wish you all the best of luck in your campaign.

  37. @ March on down the Line

    http://lesbiannews.blogspot.com/2012/05/torie-osborn-taking-on-sacramento.html?spref=tw

    On Sunday, I met this woman in person finally. She’s amazingly sweet and personable. You can imagine my absolute pleasure (and large grin on my face) when she informed me that she would be voting for me (along with all her supporters who’d come with her). I hope she wins her race. Sadly, I can’t vote for her because I’m out of her district. I may chip in $5 to her campaign though.

    It would be like if you met Stephen Twigg on your campaign trail (because he lived in your town or voting district) and told you he would be voting for you. But then you found out that you didn’t live in Twigg’s Parliamentary constituency and couldn’t vote for him.

  38. Good Morning.
    Especially to MARCHONDOWNTHELINE.

    Best wishes, enjoy the night, savour every minute, and I know it is a cliche, but here we go: You are walking in the footsteps of great women and men… as well as some who were not so great!

    In 2025: Downing Street

  39. @socalliberal

    I enjoy that aspect of the count because the number of votes that come out of it is tiny, most are discarded, and it is some light comedy at the end of the count. You usually know what the result is going to be by this time…

    On the LibDem “only party who can beat…”, no that isn’t a campaign running on fuel, it’s a party reusing a tactic that has been succesful elsewhere.

    @Cllr Peter Cairns

    In that case rather than including UKIP, wouldn’t it make more sense to exclude the LibDems from prompting?

  40. @Marchdowntheline

    And anyone else on the site standing for election: good luck to you, and thank you for taking part in the democratic process – without good people willing to be candidates or politicians the whole thing fails.

  41. Phil,
    We get similar things all the time –
    In 2010 it was Lab 32%, Lib 41%. In 2011 it was Lab 48% (+16), Lib 33% (-8).
    LibDem leaflets often show a bar-chart with Lab and Lib close to each other with a description that it’s ‘neck and neck’, despite the 15% lead.

    We also often get LibDem leaflets in Labour colours, that make no mention (except for the ‘printed for the liberal democrats’ at the bottom) that it’s a LibDem leaflet, attacking Labour for it’s support of the cuts.

    I wouldn’t necessarily call it dirty tactics though – just not entirely balanced.

    And we don’t get any Conservative leaflets – at only 9% of the vote last time I can understand why they don’t try, but they might do a little better if they pretend to exist.

  42. MARCHONDOWNTHELINE

    I hope for once Luck is a Lady and Fortune smiles!

  43. I’m standing too – looking to overturn a 6% lead for the Tories from 12 months ago, My head says it will be tight but my heart says we will buck the national trend and the opinion polls and we’ll have lost by 10.30pm.

    What has struck me this year is the lack of anger towards the Labour Party on the doorstep – it certainly wasn’t like this a few years back.

    The seat where we’re standing (there are two seats up) has in the last 15 years has gone from a solid Labour seat (1997 and all that), to a three way marginal in the early 2000s – a local Tory councillor defected to the Lib Dems in the mid 2000s and had one really good year but recently the ward has been all blue. On the polls and on the doorstep it sings a Labour victory and it is definitely only Labour or the Tories that can win – but who knows.

    @statgeek

    In terms of leaflets we made a conscious decision to go hit our priority areas (about 75% of the ward) with a succession of leaflets and direct mail. I’m losing count a bit but we’ve probably delivered getting close to 20000 over the course of the last campaign as well as knocking on nearly 1500 doors. None of it has been anti Tory at a local level and we have not concentrated on anything that is in the national media as we think that is a freebie. It’s been a consistent theme of being visible, available and accountable if elected….and we’ve also used the only us or the Tories can win to try and depress any Lib Dem vote but we are aware this might also depress the Green and UKIP vote which could help the Tories.

    There are a couple of other wards in the borough where Labour were a similar distance second last time who have taken a different approach to us so it will be interesting to see on Friday whether our highly visible approach over the last 6 weeks has had any resonance at all with the electorate.

  44. Okay.

    Here’s my prediction.

    Labour make sweeping local gains, into four figures. Lib Dems dwindle down towards BNP territory.

    In Glasgow, Lab los ground but hold comfortably.

    A big shock in London whhere despite the smears and the polls, Ken regains the mayorship by a whisker on a very low turnout affected by daylong torrential rain.

  45. NICK P.
    I think you may be right on all your predictions.

    Interesting to see the Conservative MP’s on the Media Select Committee being so brave

  46. Good luck to everyone.

    As my former politics lecturer Dr Roger Carey once told my tutorial group;

    “The good thing about politics is that it attracts people who think they can make a difference… Unfortunately it also attracts far more people who think ONLY they can make a difference”…

    A wise man who taught me a lot by telling it like it was.

    Cllr Peter Cairns (SNP).

  47. @ The Sheep

    “I enjoy that aspect of the count because the number of votes that come out of it is tiny, most are discarded, and it is some light comedy at the end of the count. You usually know what the result is going to be by this time…”

    I’m surprised that they allow the candidates to decide whether to keep or challenge the ballots at that point.

    I had a long day on Sunday and after over an hour of greeting people and asking for their votes in the hot sun and then another hour to listen to everyone’s speeches and then give my own (they were supposed to be 30 second per candidate but just about everyone went over the limit…..in one case this guy just droned on and on and on that the organizer of the event had to blow her whistle at him to wrap up the speech) and doing this while feeling somewhat under the weathe, let’s just say I was pretty tired. Well, the vote counting began and I decided to stick around for it to see what the results were. Though there were only 179 ballots cast, it took forever to count them. One volunteer would go through each ballot, reading the names that had been marked while another volunteer would mark down the number of votes for each candidate. Every time I heard a ballot being counted, I felt a little nervous. I would have to go sit down or go wait outside at certain points because it would get to be too much.

    Then also kinda dramatic, I ran on a slate with some other candidates who brought out a lot of supporters to vote. Well a ballot is still independently cast and so it wasn’t guaranteed I’d get any of the votes from the voters who voted for my running mates (and indeed, there was a lot of crossover voting). So when I would hear a ballot being read and hear the names of my running mates (indicating votes for them), I would be on pins and needles to see if my name had been marked as well.

    “On the LibDem “only party who can beat…”, no that isn’t a campaign running on fuel, it’s a party reusing a tactic that has been succesful elsewhere.”

    Yeah, I suppose that is dishonest.

  48. @ Nick P

    “A big shock in London whhere despite the smears and the polls, Ken regains the mayorship by a whisker on a very low turnout affected by daylong torrential rain.”

    Is torrential rain really going to negatively impact the turnout for a bunch of Brits? I mean, aren’t you used to rain?

    @ Peter Cairns

    Your professor strikes me as a very intelligent man.

  49. socal

    Depends how committed Labour voters are to voting for Boris. I assume not very!

  50. I think the Tories ar eplaying the Murdoch thing badly. They should be going for him, trying to drive him out of politics. Every time Cameron defends himself by saying Blair and Brown were just as bad, he loses credibility.

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