Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 42%, LD 8%, Others 15%. This suggests the weekend poll with the Conservatives down at 29 was something of an outlier and I suspect this may be a similar outlier in the other direction, with the underlying Labour lead still around 10 or 11 points. Still, all the normal caveats apply – it may be a blip, or it may be the start of a trend. We shall see.

There was also a Survation poll in the Mirror this morning, which has topline voting intention figures of CON 30%(nc), LAB 37%(+2), LDEM 12.5%(+1.5), UKIP 9%(-2), Others 12%(nc).


209 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 35, LAB 42, LDEM 8”

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  1. @ Phil

    “From the tenor of many of your threads, I trust that you’re as supportive of Blue Dog Democrats over there as you are of Liberal Democrats over here. Both are essential to the continued implemention of conservative policies.”

    Actually, I’m not a big fan of the Blue Dogs (well I do like Loretta Sanchez). I don’t think they’ve done all that much for the party. They don’t seem like Lib Dems.

    @ RAF

    “Brian Paddick is very well liked. Particularly by liberals and thosebon thr left. Very odd for a former senior police officer.”

    Not neccessarily. Tom Bradley was a former police officer. In fact, he even launched his campaign by putting a huge picture of himself in uniform on his campaign flyers.

    @ RAF

    “He’s suffered from being the third man in a heavyweight contest, and the LDs unpopularity nationally.”

    Yes but Ken is not benefitting from his party’s popularity and Boris’s party’s unpopularity in the race. And because he’s running for mayor, Paddick doesn’t have to defend his party’s decisions in power. He can point out that it’s irrelevant to his job as Mayor and claim he doesn’t support all the various cuts. It’s not like he’ll be tested, he’s not even in Parliament to actually have to cast those difficult votes. And because of IRV voting, he has every possibility of not being a wasted third vote (which is often how people think of votes for Lib Dems in Parliamentary contests).

    And while he clearly wants his party’s ballot line, he shouldn’t be running as the ‘Liberal Democrat’ candidate, he should be running as the Former Police Chief candidate. He should be running as the “independent” and “trustworthy” candidate. He should emphasize his personal background, his experience, and his big ideas for the future of London. And without saying it directly, basically intimate that between a local buffoon and a Soviet sympathizer, he’s the alternative Londoners have been waiting for.

    Sorry, I’m getting off on a tangent.

  2. If anyone is feeling depressed, anxious or suspicious about the lack of any discussion about the Scottish subsets recently:

    h ttp://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/scottish-council-elections-snp-and-labour-both-claim-polls-lead-1-2264749

    Least the Lib Dems get one thing right:
    “This is voodoo maths. The sample for Scotland is so small that the margin of error is almost as big as the SNP vote.”

    Least they get it, although why they single out SNP when Labour started it am not sure. But thats the Scottish Lib Dems for you…very odd atm, people should like them – but instead of distancing themselves from Westminster they’ve put on a rather horrible and nasty face. I’d rather vote Scottish Tories than for their lot…which isn’t a nice feeling I tell you. I just don’t know what their doing, hopefully some of the Westminster MPs retire to Holyrood and put the party back to shape!

    “People know that a local vote for a Liberal Democrat is a vote for a local champion. No poll can measure that.”

    *ahem* Well they’ve got to keep the troops going somehow ;)

  3. @ Fraser

    “If anyone is feeling depressed, anxious or suspicious about the lack of any discussion about the Scottish subsets recently”

    No.

    I just got polled. It was a weird poll though and I have no idea who sponsored it or why. Ever been polled on the Parliamentary race for your constituency but then get asked about your favorable opinions of candidates who are running in other constituencies? And other candidates for other offices? Like, if you lived in a London constituency and you were polled as to your opinion of all the candidates running for MP in your constituency, got asked your opinion of another candidate running in Hampshire, and then got asked your opinion of Alex Salmond. Weird, simply weird.

  4. Robin Hood, IIRC in 2010 the swing aganist Labvour was below the National average which nay explain why the swing a slightly less now.

    Rob – I think our only disagreement is about timing and the level of detail required as you have a strong view that the Coalition will not last and given this unprecdendented (almost) liklihood of an early GE in your view Labour it is right that Labour need more detail to add to too far too fast.

    I think the announcement that labour would broadly support the Public sector

  5. Went early again aargh!!

    I think the decision to braodly support the Public Sector pay restraint to protect Job and services was correct and if we lose a few ‘ultra’ lefties as a result it is a price worth paying.

    At this stage I think vague on Macro-Economic Policy is still correct as ‘ we dont know what we wil face’ and also we are only just starting to be listened to again.

    I would go for something along the lines of ” The coalition wish to achieve annual defecit eradiacion mid way through the next parliament, we will look at the books when we take office but would take the full parliament’

    In others words get to where they want to be in 2017/8 by 19/20.

    Wording needs to be better of course.

    BTW Rob – I think you a bit harsh on EM, he was not my choice but I don’t think we would be doing any better with anyone else who stood and the next generation aren’t ready yet. YC may come in if Ed had to go and give us a temporary lift but we don’t know how she would cope with the strains of the job and she would not have long to learn.

    You are entitled to claim your are a realist and I respect that but my realism says Labour have very little chance of OM in 2015 and it too early to chase lefty Cons and remaing LDs. More important up to 2015 to hold current LD switchers, get some 2010 stayaway supporters back and work on first time voters imo to try to be the largest party next time in seats at least.

  6. @DINGO
    `Terrible headlines for Livingstone in the Sun today carrying on from his worsening position in the polls.`

    The people who won`t vote for Ken because of his tax issues have decided weeks ago…Because some polls are close,and Boris is getting some bad news stories about the News International link and swearing,the paper tries a round of speculation where two city accountants estimate the amount Ken MIGHT have earnt and the tax he MIGHT have saved…Is this going to stop the people who have made their mind up already?I don`t think so

  7. Looking quite clear that Boris is going to win, even if a 12% lead is unlikely.

    I expect the press to spin the result as the end of Labour, even if Labour go on to win every council seat in the country (I know it’s impossible, but it’s for emphasis).
    Just as the AV vote was a victory for Cameron and the end of Labour.

    I suspect the Labour posters who’re expecting a miracle Ken win (despite the polls) are showing exactly the same signs of hope that Tory posters were showing, when they expected a Sarkozy win (despite the polls).

    And a slightly more serious polling question –
    Whether you expect a Labour majority, a Tory majority, a surprise LibDem majority or a hung parliament, where are the parties going to get their votes?

    I expect the Tories to keep their 2010 vote, plus gaining about 1.5% of the electorate (equivalent of 4% of the 2010 vote) who’re previous non-voters worried about Labour victory (ala 1992), Labour will grab around 30% of the LibDem vote and LibDems will lose another 15% to ‘staying at home’ and others and will keep around 55%.
    That gives us 65.5% turnout (+0.5), Con 38.2, Lab 35.7, Lib 12.7, Oth 13.4.
    Giving us seats of Con 298, Lab 269, Lib 10, Nat 7 under the new boundaries.
    Con+Lib (possibly NAT, possible NI party) coalition, Lab set to take 2020.

  8. “`Terrible headlines for Livingstone in the Sun today carrying on from his worsening position in the polls.`”
    ————————–
    IMHO it is sad to see so much dirt-digging, character assassination and back-stabbing instead of debates about policies. If I had a vote in London it would go to Ken, but I like Boris’s independent maverick streak and if he wins then I wish him well.

  9. TF – your question is of more than of academic interest as the respective party leaderships have to work out the strategies.

    Easy for the LDs – demonstrate to their centre and centre left erstwhile voters that their moderating influence of the Governmemt has been significant and worthwhile.

    For the other 2 it is tricky as they need to gain a few more without alienating the base. In Labours case imo retaining most of the LD leavers must be a priority as a less divided centre-left is critical to future success not just 2015; beyond that it is tricky.

    FWIW 39/35/15/11 but LDs holding more seats than UNS so 25-30 and still only able to coalesce with cons.

    Is chance of Lab largest party by getting to 37/38 but would be tough as that amounts to broadly 3 new voters for every 10 last time, a big ask.

  10. @LizH,

    Thanks. Between a torrid few weeks at work, my brother in hospital for emergency surgery and the twin disappointments of bad runs of form for Spurs and the Tories, I haven’t much felt like coming on here recently. But I thought the polling picture was so interesting at the moment (what the Hell is going on with London?!) that I should drop in from time to time.

  11. @RAF,

    Paddick isn’t all that popular amongst police officers, which may explain his popularity amongst “liberals” to some extent. It was perceived in the Met that he was (rightly or wrongly) a bit dodgy on the drugs issue. Loosening cannabis policing at the same time as (allegedly) using it himself. That never troubled me as I am in favour of across-the-board drug legalisation anyway, but there you go. Obviously his sexuality probably appeals to liberals to in a “rainbow alliance” sort of way but I don’t think I’ve ever heard him say or do anything, apart from Gay Pride events, that linked his sexuality to his politics in any way.

  12. @NeilA – “Loosening cannabis policing at the same time as (allegedly) using it himself.”

    The Mail on Sunday accepted that their story was false, apologised, and paid damages.

    Among other things Paddick made it clear that police officers should report the small minority within their ranks who use excessive force – “These people exist”.

    “I was trying to effect the most difficult change there is in an organisation, which is a change of culture.”

    Probably explains why the public came out in support of him when he was removed from Lambeth… can you think of another senior police officer who has commanded a similar level of repect?

  13. Welcone back Neil even if only as a part-timer for while, trust your brother recovers fully.

    Like most neutralz I would like to see Spurs and Newcastle take 3rd and 4th but looks like Arsenal will take at least one of the places.

  14. The London campaign is distorted by the fact that one of the candidates has a media monopoly in his pocket and is able to launch propaganda – dishonest or not – against his opponents without any reply.

    The Evening Standard, in short, is a disgrace to democracy, playing the historical role of the whore in politics : power without responsibility. It can publish whatever it likes without any come back.

    I wonder what our elections would look like with a balanced press and informed debate?

  15. @Billy Bob,

    I accept that the drugs allegation wasn’t substantiated, but we are talking about perceptions and the actual truth of a thing doesn’t matter all that much in that arena. The entire backdrop to the allegation (“Senior officer accused by gay ex-lover” etc) is likely in my view to have curried sympathy for Mr Paddick in liberal quarters whilst antagonising social conservatives (which includes many police officers, although that is slowly changing particularly in the Met).

    As for another police officer attracting public sympathy… well, how many mid-level police commanders can you actually name? It is extremely unusual for a Chief Supt or Commander to even be a public figure, apart from maybe an anti-terrorism chief. And let’s be honest, relaxing cannabis policing was pretty popular with a large section of the population in Lambeth. if not with the Daily Mail.

    Jim Jam, thanks. All I care about is Spurs finishing in the top four, and above Arsenal. I am on tenterhooks. Manchester, Shmanchester….

  16. The Spanish real estate market is truly mind blowing.

    There are over 800,000 empty/uncompleted properties-most of them on the coast.

    Some developments are being bulldozed in an attempt to support the price of the remainder.

    Can you imagine the scale of bad debt attached to financing this lot.

    Its Ireland with knobs on.

    Interesting piece by Stephan Shakespeare ( of this Parish :-) )on the hot topic of temporary blip vs fracture of the right.:-

    http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thecolumnists/2012/05/from-stephanshaxper-there-has-been-no-shift-in-politics-people-just-use-mid-term-elections-to-expres.html

  17. @NeilA – “… relaxing cannabis policing was pretty popular with a large section of the population in Lambeth.”

    More popular was that he was seen to be concentrating resources on tacking crack, heroin and violent crime, rather than stop and seach in the hope of finding a little bag of weed. The perception of fairness, that he would not tolerate wrongdoing by the police themselves, was reason why he was respected by the public.

    His final crime seems to have been failing to go along with the pointless equivocation about Jean Charles de Menezes.

  18. @Statgeek
    “A Scotsman article reckons Miliband will not profit from the upcoming elections:
    h ttp://www.scotsman.com/news/david-maddox-local-elections-leaves-leaders-expecting-gloomy-friday-1-2266052”

    It’s not exactly rigorous stuff from the Scotsman, very opinion led without evidence to back it. Here are a selection of some of the more dubious opinions therein:

    1. “Nick Clegg……could see UKIP poll more votes than his Liberal Democrat party.” Really – in the LOCAL elections?

    2. “The south of England should remain virtually Labour free.”

    3. “Key to Miliband’s future is whether Labour is still the biggest party in Glasgow. If it is not and Labour also lose London, he may be heading for the exit door.”

    A false premise. The relevant contest in London is for the London Assembly, which polls say Lab will win convincingly. If at the same time Livingstone loses a parallel personality contest largely on the back of his own tax affairs, it ain’t going to matter diddly squat to Miliband’s future.

  19. Believe me this isn’t spin but whoever wins the London Mayors job could become an embarassment for their parties and a drag on the 2015 GE performance in Greater London.

  20. Colin

    I think there is a fundamental misunderstanding here. What has realigned is the anti-Tory vote.

    I don’t think Ed M and Labour has reestablished a deal with many non-tribal voters (yet, hopefully) BUT everybody who is anti Tory will vote Labour.

    Doesn’t mean it is all a done deal, but the new anti-tory vote seems to be going to UKIP. Even if they return to the Tory fold, Lab are still ahead because they have taken the LD anti-Tories.

  21. @Raf
    “….just now the Guardian coming out for Ken.
    Well, knock me down with a feather!”

    One of the two architects of the Guardian’s switch to the Lib-Dems in 2010 was its [feeble] long-term columnist Julian Glover, who left last year to become chief speech writer for Cameron!; he is the civil partner of M. Parris, ex-Tory MP, who now bats for the Tories on the Times. The other was J. Freedland who advises his readers to vote Boris Johnson!
    As Phil commented the Guardian has not “changed its spots”; most of its columisnts are classic metropolitans who don’t seem to have the faintest idea of what is going on in Britain.

  22. Press Associattion:

    “Nearly half of the population believe embattled Culture Secretary Jeremy Hunt should resign, a poll has indicated.

    The research found just 16% of voters think the Secretary of State should remain in post while 49% want him to quit over his links with Rupert Murdoch’s News Corporation.

    The ComRes poll for ITV News at Ten also found three out of five voters want an independent probe into whether Mr Hunt was involved in the passing of information to News Corp during its bid for BSkyB.”

  23. @Tingedfringe
    “I expect the Tories to keep their 2010 vote”

    Why on earth do you expect this? If you look at the Conservative vote over the last four general elections you get;

    1997 9.6m 30.7%
    2001 8.3m 31.7%
    2005 8.7m 32.4%
    2010 10.7m 36.1%

    Do you really expect the extra 2m voters who decided to vote Tory in 2010 to vote the same way again? 2010 was against a Labour government that had been in power for 13 years and with a very unpopular PM. Now the Tories are in power I would expect their vote to collapse back, probably not to the 8.5m average from 2001/2005, maybe more to the 9/9.5m mark. I would expect a number of more euro-sceptic / right wing voters to defect to UKIP (would be interesting if the Daily Mail or the Telegraph decide to back UKIP, if you read their editorial and opinion pieces this is a possibility) and those who might have been voting Tory to keep Labour out in 2010 are surely much less likely to vote in 2015 to keep the Tories in. People who vote negatively aren’t really to be relied on.

  24. Wales Poll is Out for intentions council elections

    LAB 76% PC 4% LD4% CON 5% OTH 10%

  25. NIckP

    Problem is there is quite a lot of people who wont vote Tory or Labour and quite possibly now wouldnt vote Liberal. Hence the UKIP and Green support increasing

  26. NICKP

    @”I think there is a fundamental misunderstanding here. ”

    The article wasn’t about the movement of the leftward vote-it was about the temporary or permanent fracture of the rightward vote.

    @”everybody who is anti Tory will vote Labour.”

    Your capacity for hyperbole knows no bounds these days :-)

    The last YouGov Poll indicates that, in respect of the 2010 GE vote, 5% of the Labour vote has gone to UKIP/Green.

    Labour have not received all of the LD defectors-17% of them have gone to UKIP/Green etc( 14% have gone to Cons !!!)

    Cons have lost 14% of 2010 vote to UKIP/others.

    If this is “anti-Tory” it hasn’t gone to Labour.

    Whether it comes back to Cons is in Cameron’s hands-I think it will -or most of it anyway.

    THe movement of 2010 Cons to Labour is about the same as the traffic in the opposite direction.

    Meanwhile the 39% of 2010 LDs which is currently keeping EM afloat-it amounts to 9% pts if applied to LD’s 2010 %-is absolutely critical to Labour.

    I think you are sensible to concede that this is not ” a done deal”.

    I think we are seeing a reflection in UK ( on a less marked scale) of the confusion & anger which is visible in the French & Greek elections-and which felled the Dutch administration.

    It is an anger which seems to be producing that time honoured reaction to national anguish-movement to the political fringe-notably the “nationalist” right.

    This is the very antithesis of the EU concept of the European Citizen.

    I suppose we must be thankful that UKIP , rather than another fringe party is the beneficiary of these sort of emotions in UK.

    At least we won’t see DC “doing a Sarkozy”-but he will have to look & sound a bit more like a Conservative Prime Minister, and a bit less like a LibDem apologist.if he is to stop Farage keeping these votes.

    In Shakespeare’s piece , he links to an equally fascinating piece by Peter Kellner. PK points to the European Parliament elections in 2014-and the possibility that DC has still not satisfied the defectors to UKIP by then. PK says the result could be an explosive EU election result in UK which could alter the dynamic of our GE a year later.

    Both DC & EM have “deals ” to seal.

    Interesting stuff.

  27. Phil -> Even if there are pressing and real reasons which arent Milibands fault it will paint a bad picture if Labour lose both the biggest cities in England and Scotland. It will make a difference in the polls even if its just a week of non-bad news for the tory party. Ken v Boris is much better for the headlines than Labour make 600 or 800 gains in the locals and the narrative will paint it as another loss for Ed Miliband.

  28. Colin,

    One interpretation of the article (more accurately my extraloplation) is that neither DC and EM will not able to seal the deal.
    Not because they are not capable men (clearly both are intelliegent etc) but becuse whoever is leading the 2 main parties will struggle at least for the foreseeable future to build a coalition of voters sufficient to give an OM.

  29. JIM JAM

    Yes-the “hung parliament” scenario is Rob Sheffield’s favourite.

    He may be right-at present I hope he is !! :-)

    As to who will be leading the parties in the next GE-I think it will be the status quo.

    Afterwards is a very different matter though.

  30. Jack Sullivan,

    Is that a poll for Rhondda Valley?

  31. I agree all 7 leaders will last to the next GE (incl UKIP, PC, SNP, Green) baring unforeseen developments.
    Then like football management it is a results business.

  32. Phil
    Scotsman attacks Labour isn’t exactly a story The Scotsman has beenattacking Labour for a century.
    Joe
    Why is there an assumption that Labour will do badly in Scotland, let alone Glasgow? Is there any polling evidence? As a local Labour politician, the striking features of the campaign here have been how buoyant Labour voters are, the strengthening of anti-seperatist feeling in non-SNP voters and the decline of the Lib Dems. SNP will be relying on a very low turn out which will foreground the strength of their core emotional supporters. A bigger turn out and they will not do well in urban Scotland. it will be interesting to see the trend of transfers. Last time Labour received very few but it could be different this time.

  33. “I expect the Tories to keep their 2010 vote”

    Either of the main parties could of course self-destruct before the next election, but one feature caught my eye in the ST/YouGov over the weekend:

    29% of the 2010 Conservative voters agree “The Conservatives these days give the impression of being very sleazy and disreputable”, the same percentage think Cameron is “weak”, “not in control”, half think he is “out of touch” and that the cuts disproportionately affect the poor/middle earners etc.

    “plus gaining about… 4%”

    Hard to say where this will come from. The carefully constructed image, which was overwhelmingly approved by the media in the run up to the 2010 GE, has come apart at the seams; Cameron, Osborne and Clegg will be hard pressed to defend their reputations at the next election.

  34. Jack – those seem somewhat dubious figures. Are you sure it’s not a voodoo poll?

    As it happens, however, there is a YouGov poll of Welsh local election voting intention here.

    It has

    CON 17% (+1 since 2008)
    LAB 48% (+21 since 2008)
    LDEM 7% (-6 since 2008)
    PC 14% (-3 since 2008)
    IND & Oth 15% (-13 since 2008)

    The Independent figure looks quite low to me (Independent candidates got 23% in Wales in 2003 – it may be a case of people living in areas contested by independents saying how they would *like* to vote), but nevertheless looks very good indeed for Labour.

  35. Is there another YG poll on London coming out today? I’m pretty much sick of London at this point, but the 12-lead poll for BJ I’m willing to call bullsh*t on. YG was accurate on the London mayoral elections in 2004 and 2008 to within 1% if I recall correctly…

    I expect Boris to win, but only with a margin of 3-5%.

    Labour seems to be caught by the expectation wave, everyone seems to believe 700+ seats, meaning if they don’t hit that, the newspapers will turn on them.

  36. Id expect 5-7 point lead but would take any BJ victory

  37. @Anthony Wells

    Did you see my question a couple of threads back about whether YouGov had conducted any polling outside of London for the local elections? You did one in 2011 and it was very useful (as well as fairly accurate) by being conducted in parallel with the usual GE survey, so providing a means to establish how parties might over/underperform against local election results in a notional GE held on the same day.

    That said, given that we all see the detailed results of your polls for free, please don’t interpret this as a grumble.

  38. @JimJam

    “Like most neutralz I would like to see Spurs and Newcastle take 3rd and 4th but looks like Arsenal will take at least one of the places.”

    Really?? Maybe your presumption that you speak for “most neutralz” in football is a little like your presumption/assertion that you feel you know the outcome of the next General Election in three years time! lol

    On the subject of assertions, we seem to be going through one of those rather unappetising phases that occasionally bedevils UKPR when there appears to be a plethora of political crystal ball gazers making increasingly outlandish predictions. No “mays” or “possiblys”, it’s all “wills” and “won’ts” at the moment, with erroneous percentage shifts in vote figures thrown in to give spurious authenticity. “4% here”, “6% there”. This block of voters will go here, that lot there. Lots of “no ways” and “done deals” too; it’s all a bit tiresome.

    I await, rather like the sound of the first cuckoo signifying the arrival of Spring, the first “Miliband is toast” prediction or “Cameron’s a shoo-in”. I mean, there’s only three years to go and those of us in the know(“nudge, nudge, wink, wink”) know exactly what’s going to happen, don’t we?

    Pity the poor ignoramuses and fools like me who haven’t got the faintest idea what may unfold between now and May 2015.

  39. Select committee report finds the Murdochs unfit to run a major company. But the Con members of the cttee voted against including the most critical passages.

    How is this going to play? Seems to me that this could easily feed into the prevailing mood, that the Tories are cheerleaders for the Murdochs.

  40. Robin
    Watching it. Menshe batting indefatiguably for Murdoch. Beyond the call of duty. Incidentally, Snp also batting hard. Newsnet Scotland, close to official mouthpiece says Labour only turned against Murdoch because he turned against them. No recognition that Dowler changed everything.

  41. @Joe
    “… if Labour lose both the biggest cities in England and Scotland”

    You seem to be equating party voting with the London mayoral contest. That’s wrong. The party voting is on the London Assembly vote, which Labour will win comfortably, while the party outcomes in the mayoral contest are distorted by all sorts of factors particular to the two individuals. Indeed both are choosing to run on their first names, rather than emphasising party labels.

    Despite this, no doubt the London mayoral result will be spun in the London-dominated media as you suggest. But the media aren’t that influential on matters of choosing or deposing the Labour leadership, thank goodness. I credit those who have the say in Miliband’s future – both Labour MPs and the wider party membership – with enough intelligence to look to the results that matter in this election, both the Assembly result in London and even more importantly those outside.

  42. Murdoch…watch those Tories backing Murdoch.

    Mensch is committing suicide. She hasn’t got the sense to know what’s going on. Cameron at least knows.

    I think Levenson has the potential to wreck the Government and I believe those Tories sticking with Murdoch are making that more likely.

    Will it affect voting on Thursday? Well, there’s no way it is going to help the Cons…or Boris. But I think most people have made their mind up on Murdoch now anyway.

  43. @NickP

    “I think most people have made their mind up on Murdoch now anyway.”

    Agreed. But that means that continued support by Murdoch by such as Mensch will solidify people’s VI. The more support for Murdoch, the harder it will be for the Tories to retrieve those lost votes.

  44. Not sure this poll is as much of an outlier as people may think – with an actual election concentrating minds, and all parties on full “hustings” footing, I wouldn’t be surprised if some of the Lab protest boost is dissipating somewhat. It will be interesting if the Boris Boost also helps keep a few Tories in their seats in London.

    Lots has been said of Boris performing ahead of his party in London, but could it be that Boris is actually not only out-performing his party, but also lifting them slightly from the national picture (usually things are worse for Cons in London than elsewhere).

    This may be an interesting feature of local mayors that will have more effect, and is certainly a well documented phenomena in the US where strong performances by national parties tend to help down-ticket state-wide elections (or even local state senators).

    AW is their anything written on this effect or how it can be measured? Perhaps from Mark Blumenthal?

  45. ROBIN

    @”But the Con members of the cttee voted against including the most critical passages.”

    …..Voted against an amendment to an otherwise unanimous report, from Watson, saying the Murdochs are not fit to run a business……an amendment passed by one vote-the LibDem ……an amendment dealing with a matter outwith the brief of the Committee.

    Nice move by Watson-he paints his Committee “colleagues” as Murdoch aplogists.

    Whittigdale’s Committee is hopeless. It should be shut down & reconstituted.

  46. It’s possible, Colin, to take the view that, given what the Committee heard, anybody who doesn’t think the Murdochs are unfit to run a company is blinkered by a different sort of political prejudice.

  47. Far enough crossbat11, many neutrals I know re football.

    Re GE forecast I did say FWIW implying I know it is worth little and it was in replying to an interesting post from TF.

    But more importantly I am not sure if your a party member of just a supporter. If we wish to make good decisions about how about the parties platform should devcelop in the years and months leading to a GE we need to attempt to take a view on where we stand now and what are realistic targets.
    I do feel that my comment below is a fair contribution but if you don’t fair enough.
    ”Is chance of Lab largest party by getting to 37/38 but would be tough as that amounts to broadly 3 new voters for every 10 last time, a big ask”

    Rob S and I disagree on some things but share a view that Labour are not in a position politically yet to win and OM in 2015 (and imo are unlikely to be so whatever we do).

    For this we seem to get opprobrium on occassions from some fellow reds on here who think we are doing great and 2015 is in the bag.

    BTW – as a Lancastrian by birth I want all 3 to of their teams to stay up and the PMs team to go down, ner ner ner ner ner.

  48. ROBIN

    @”But that means that continued support by Murdoch by such as Mensch ”

    If you have been watching the Committee press conference you will have seen Mensch emphasising over & over again that the Committee were at one in their conclusions with respect to their brief.

    You would also have seen Mensch volunteer that TW was “entitled” to table the amendment if he felt it was a point of principle.

    Watson did not acknowledge this generosity-he was too busy texting & tweeting, under the very nose of his Chairman in the middle of a Press Conference.

  49. Maybe a bit biased,but `All that`s left `says postal votes showing surprisingly good results for Ken

    http://www.allthatsleft.co.uk/2012/04/is-boris-really-coasting-to-victory/

  50. NICKP

    @”It’s possible, Colin, to take the view that, given what the Committee heard, anybody who doesn’t think the Murdochs are unfit to run a company is blinkered by a different sort of political prejudi”

    It is indeed-but it isn’t a topic the Committee was required to examine.

    Which is why WAtson needed to table his amendment in order to paint his Conservative colleagues as “pro-Murdoch”.

    Neat trick-thanks to the LIbDem..

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