Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 42%, LD 8%, Others 15%. This suggests the weekend poll with the Conservatives down at 29 was something of an outlier and I suspect this may be a similar outlier in the other direction, with the underlying Labour lead still around 10 or 11 points. Still, all the normal caveats apply – it may be a blip, or it may be the start of a trend. We shall see.

There was also a Survation poll in the Mirror this morning, which has topline voting intention figures of CON 30%(nc), LAB 37%(+2), LDEM 12.5%(+1.5), UKIP 9%(-2), Others 12%(nc).


209 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 35, LAB 42, LDEM 8”

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  1. Probably an outlier, but a sudden job in Tory support, both in the form of Boris and in these polls seems a little old. Has there been something I have missed that could boost tory ratings?

  2. Probably a outlier (positive for Tories)- interesting survation numbers.

    Roll on thursday !

  3. It looks to me like teh 35% conservative vote is more likely to be an outlier. They have been in the low thirties/high twenties and suddenly here they are in the mid 30s.

    When is an outlier and outlier? When you want it to be perhaps?

  4. I have an idea… why doesn’t somebody do a weighted average of all the recent/ relevant polls.

    If somebody did that, I think it might be around:
    Con 32
    Lab 41
    Libs 11
    :twisted:

  5. @AMBER STAR

    Libs 11 seems a bit high too me. They have been around 8%-9% for a long time.

  6. What was UKIP in the YouGov/Sun?

  7. Like, guys, I know you all are a bit like, woah step back, its Max he’s a blue, we’re a red, like Gnome and juliet, excellent film.

    But i think we need to make this stuff real again. Like BJ is up because people like BJ, some of you with dirty minds are already thinking the wrong thing.

    And like Conservatives are up cos they were down a bit yeah, and like all the grannys were upset cos there caravans running on pasty power were taxed but then they got over it, and saw murdoch slap down gordon, and that united everyone as everyone didnt like gordon, but we cant say that as thats partisan so we can say people didnt like ken clarke either.

  8. @MAX KING OF THE FANTASTIC COUNTY OF KENT
    “murdoch slap down gordon, and that united everyone as everyone didnt like gordon,”

    Not everyone Max. I am a Gordon fan as well as a Ken fan.

  9. @Liz H

    Lovely Chris Lane impression! ;-)

    Anthony’s UKPR polling average has LDs on 11% (ICM is the culprit). I was being a smart @rse & just quoting the UKPR PA because of everybody trying to guess what the ‘real’ polling numbers are. Not that funny, now I think about it. :oops:

  10. @ Jim

    What was UKIP in the YouGov/Sun?
    —————–
    7%

  11. Liz, but your red, and reds seem more loyal, like I dont have a problem saying i dont like ken clarke, or Cameron, neither does Nadine, and like when it came to IDS, we saw he was bad, and got rid of him.

    But labour is kinda cool and kinda not, because whoever it picks it will not say a bad word about even when they bad, like kinnock, brown and now Ken, and even though you cant win with these well ken no more, but he did earlier, you guys still stick by them and dont turn, which is cool i guess.

  12. @Billy Bob (FPT)
    “I still don’t see the scope for Labour to make the kind of gains people are confidently predicting.”

    Quite agree. A lot of it is driven by people parroting what they see elsewhere, rather than looking at the detailed numbers of seats up for grabs, by type, and only then drawing conclusions.

    For Labour to be bookies favourite to reach or exceed 800 is astonishing. Get your money on <800 at 11/10!

  13. @MAX KING OF THE FANTASTIC COUNTY OF KENT
    It is not just loyalty. I like to think we value people. It could be said that Tories use people. For instance Tories got rid of IDS because he was bad. He is now back so he couldn’t have been bad.

  14. @Max

    Are you taking your Gran to the Rochester Sweeps Festival next weekend?

    It’s a great day out… and it’s in the fantastic county. ;)

  15. Every cloud has a silver lining. A pretty grim bunch of polls for the Lib Dems today from YouGov and Populus.

    And then Survation comes along and cheers me up… a bit :)

    Brian P deserves more than 5%, but I would say that, wouldn’t I?

    Looking forward to seeing how the week unfolds. Will be working hard here in Camden – we have a council by-election in a LD/Lab split ward as well as the Mayoral and GLA elections.

  16. @LizH,

    I think it’s fairly indisputable that IDS was bad as a party leader. I’m sure Ed M was a very capable cabinet minister.

    It’s fairly well established, though, that Labour are less harsh on their leaders than the Tories. Whether that’s a blessing is perhaps a matter for debate.

  17. @Liz H

    For an encore, might you indulge us further by “doing a Chris Lane” regarding Paddick’s latest polling?

  18. At the risk of being boring:

    YouGov is the ONLY pollster who currently give the Lib Dems less than 10%.

    Chris Lane just has an eccentric sense of humour. I don’t think he’s being serious…

  19. @Phil

    I’m hoping that Labour does even better in the locals compared to 2011… but given the proportion of seats up or grabs that would still mean numerically fewer gains than last year..

  20. @NEIL A

    Lovely to see you back here. Wish Richard in Norway and Henry would return too.

  21. @Max

    Can’t say i’m a red as such (although.very.much leaning that way) but there is a bit of a difference between brown, kinnock and Ken. Ken up until recently was a winner – he ran london three times. I’m not knocking brown (who I generally like) or kinnock (who I also largely like), but Ken was much stronger leader who.often outpolled his party significantly. He also had a number of achievements mayor, maintained by boris. So you can see why.people liked him.

    If they.don’t like him any.longer then so be it. Nothing lasts forever, and he’s had a good political innings.

    That said, of the YG poll is right, he’s still very.much alive.

  22. @ Amber Star, thanks!

  23. LDEM 12.5%??

    Huh!!! Never seen the decimal point used in a poll before but I suppose every crumb is needed when polling them Libs.. ;)

  24. @Max

    Labour boo the ones they didn’t get ride of, Tories cheer the ones they do :p

    Personally am a big fan of Gordon, and have said on her before that Murdoch/Camerons attacks on him only stopped Tories getting a majortiy imo. They should have fought a positive campaign, instead they basically made it a tough choice for voters.

    Generally I think Brown will be thought of with mixed feelings looking back. But I think he at least tried to do a good job, something Cam has never done – instead just wanting others to percieve him as something special (imo).

  25. @David

    Brian Paddick deserves much more than 5%. His has been the best campaign. Unfortunately, in a two horse race (the Supplementary Vote makes it so), the LDs have been squeezed again. More concerning for the LDs is that they may be reduced to one seat on the GLA.

  26. @AMBER

    For what it’s worth, my 30-poll median abs dev shows (UK):

    Con 32.8%
    Lab 42.0%
    Lib 8.8%
    UKIP 6.8%
    Green 2.5%
    Other 6.2%

  27. @Phil
    “For an encore, might you indulge us further by “doing a Chris Lane” regarding Paddick’s latest polling?”

    Paddick – I thought he dropped out because both the Greens and UKIP have overtaken him.

  28. David
    At the risk of being boring:

    YouGov is the ONLY pollster who currently give the Lib Dems less than 10%.
    _______

    At the risk of being wrong, aren’t YouGov the most accurate?

  29. RobS (from the previous thread)

    Go on then. I’ll indulge you. What detailed economic policies should Labour be trumpeting right now, and how will doing so help their position in 15?

    I’ve given you my approach previously. I think we are still in “Hearts rather than Minds” territory. In which Labour should keep pressing a very general message that a) there always has been an alternative and b) even if there isn’t, look at the unfair way in which Plan A is being pushed.

    Keep pressing that approach for the next 2 years. Give the Tories more time to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous policies. And then unveil detailed, costed policies at a time when hearts have been won and minds prepared for the narrative.

    The alternative of setting up policies now is what Sir Humphrey would call “Very brave”. It gifts a Get out of Jail card to an embattled Govt, and allows them to turn their fire on a specific and conspicuous foe. An Opposition that allows themselves to be conspicuous and specific has failed Opposition Politics 101; being in opposition is a nasty guerilla war of a job. You get nowt for being the brave “fight them on the beaches” type.

  30. “An Opposition that allows themselves to be conspicuous and specific ON POLICIES…”

  31. Gordon Brown is still pretty popular in my neck of the woods. I still reckon he would have been a great PM had the media been a little less hostile.

    I know that’ll probably provoke a backlash, but whether you believe it happens in general or not, it certainly happened to Gordo. It wasn’t just criticism, it was malicious.

  32. Two sensations today:

    ES coming out for Boris, and just now the Guardian coming out for Ken.

    Well, knock me down with a feather!

  33. @SCOTSWAEHAE
    ` It wasn’t just criticism, it was malicious`

    Gordon showed his mettle during the economic crisis…Whether his downfall was related to the grand deal,who knows?

  34. @ David

    “Brian P deserves more than 5%, but I would say that, wouldn’t I?

    Looking forward to seeing how the week unfolds. Will be working hard here in Camden – we have a council by-election in a LD/Lab split ward as well as the Mayoral and GLA elections.”

    No, I’d say so too. As I said earlier, I wish that Victory Fund could help him. I doubt that they can legally donate money to him and help fund his campaign. But maybe there are other ways in which they could help.

  35. I agree with others that Brian Paddick has done well,especially in the debates and it would be a shame if he din`t come third

  36. @Raf
    “….just now the Guardian coming out for Ken.
    Well, knock me down with a feather!”

    Well you nearly knocked me down, given that’s the paper which backed the Lib Dems in 2010 and has up to now shown no second thoughts despite all the subsequent very blue water under the bridge. But on closer reading that supposed endorsement is only on the 2nd vote, describing it as an “unsatisfactory choice” between the two candidates after saying lots of nice things about the Lib Dem. So there’s still no evidence that they’ve changed their spots.

  37. @Socal

    Brian Paddick is very well liked. Particularly by liberals and thosebon thr left. Very odd for a former senior police officer.

    He’s suffered from being the third man in a heavyweight contest, and the LDs unpopularity nationally.

    I also think the Greens ran a very good campaign and they will get my List vote.

  38. @lefytlampton

    oooh all right then.

    Bread and butter to sum it up- in three ways

    1) expenditure and deficit reduction

    I think the case can be made for a reduction in the deficit to (pre Euro-Plus pact) EZ target levels i.e. “the Stability and Growth Pact requires that each country hold down its annual public deficit to a maximum of 3.0 percent of gross domestic product”. As opposed to ConLib with their structural deficit ‘eradication’ by 2016 and 1.5% of GDP actual deficit target in 2016 with complete eradication of deficit pencilled in for 2016-2018 by Danny Alexander i.e. a “no deficit” approach. Which was in neither governing parties manifesto of course.

    3% of GDP- monies opened are up by a “less fast less deep” approach can be tied in with supporting employment growth and key policy areas like health and education- would be attractive to a jaded electorate who have seen infrastructure decline, schools and hospitals not maintained (a la 1980s) and the gap between the top 5% and the rest grow.

    A “less fast less deep” approach likely IMHO to promote growth and employment in a way the ConLib ‘hope and pray for a entrepreneur or philanthropist to turn up’ surely will not (and has not for the last two years).

    2) Taxation- shift emphasis back to upper income earners and away from consumption and back to income and capital gains. Overall impact neutral compared to ConLib HMT/OBR strategy- but burden falls on those with the broadest shoulders and deepest wallets.

    3) Reinstating (most but not all) of the budgets of local authorities so that their services (and- importantly- their grants to social enterprises, neighbourhood groups and small localised charities) can be “filled in rather than hollowed out”. Continue the current governments local finance reforms so that councils collect/ generate a far higher proportion of their income locally rather than through transfer grants from Whitehall.

    *However* IMHO ‘deficit reduction’- even to 3% of GDP- is still going to have too much gristle for a red blooded far leftist like yourself to swallow I think…in 2010 it was 11% of GDP…that’s is TOO high.

    So- given 11% is too high, and to turn your question on its head: what expenditure and services would YOU cut in the name of deficit reduction???

    BTW cutting that is that is politically acceptable i.e. NOT Trident as that proposal is a 1-way ticket to electoral oblivion like it or not.

    Note also that “bringing our troops home” and other such ‘Bradford Spring chic’ is already factored into the ConLib spending plans !!

    ***

    The Guardian- a fine record in picking/ supporting the appropriate candidate/ leader :-)

  39. @Socal

    From the tenor of many of your threads, I trust that you’re as supportive of Blue Dog Democrats over there as you are of Liberal Democrats over here. Both are essential to the continued implemention of conservative policies.

  40. I can’t work out what I think of the Populus 12% Boris lead.

    Why should the pro-Labour swing be so much smaller in the capital than in the rest of the country? There is no logical reason for this, which leads me to question whether the mayoral voting intention result might also be distorted in favour of the Tories.

    Against that, Labour often fail to translate their mid-term poll leads into actual votes in the ballot box in low turnout local/regional elections, so maybe it’s not too far out after all.

    Can’t help thinking the mayoral election willl be closer than these figures imply, but even so it’s pretty difficult to see how Ken’s going to win this one.

  41. A Scotsman article reckons Miliband will not profit from the upcoming elections:

    h ttp://www.scotsman.com/news/david-maddox-local-elections-leaves-leaders-expecting-gloomy-friday-1-2266052

  42. On point 1 above a P.S.

    A key argument laid before the electorate should be: do you want to pay for public services via taxes?

    Or do you want to have the insipid growth of fees/ costs/ charges/ private providers and patchy charity provision in a post code lottery- whilst the infrastructure of your kids school/ your Gran’s sheltered accommodation/ the roads you use wilt and the emergency services you rely upon seem to evaporate etc

    Tax changes (and slower austerity… but austerity nonetheless) can be a vote winner when the alternative is so awful.

    *But* the proposals and the alternative need to be communicated clearly, openly and a long time in advance of the next election in this most unprecedented of epochs.

    Hence my criticism of EdM for this (amongst so MANY) missteps.

    If he does not then I think the next election will turn on “better the devil you know: because the other lot have not been honest and frank with us. We don’t know what they stand for and we trust them even less than the current useless shower”

  43. RobS.

    Grand policy ideas. I’d actually support some of them. I have to confess, I’m bemused by your belief that, just because my name starts with “L”, I must therefore slot in somewhere between Krushchev and Marchais. Are the Centrists in the Labour party now SO nervous that the very mention of the word “Left” has them reaching for the bazooka?

    Anyway. You still didn’t explain how you think those policies would play with the media and electorate. Given the shambles in January (when, admittedly, there was as much red-on-red fire as there was fire coming from the other side) I’d have thought that those suggesting big policy launches right now might have learned a lesson?

  44. I wondered about the 12.5% too. Don’t see that often in headline figures.

    I wouldn’t expect some demolition job of Tory-controlled councils here. That is reserved for situations mid-90’s with Blair leading the opposition, and similar. That’s not what we have here.

    On the currency markets I’ve noticed the Pound slowly strengthening against the Euro, which sounds nice if you’re in a position to travel to Europe. But, it seems to me, that it indicates more trouble is gathering in the EZ. As if we need more such problems.

  45. @ROB S
    @LEFTYLAMPTON

    Don`t you think that Labour`s policies will be better accepted by the public if Hollande is elected and the Hollande/Holland axis starts challenging the UK-German `there is no alternative` austerity.

  46. Some end of the month graphs folks. First the Median Absolute Deviation graph for the last 30-polls (back to the 16th March), so the worst of the outliers are omitted:

    h ttp://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/689/madsl.png

    Then on to the calendar month graphs, but note that in this case it’s a simple average, so outliers are included in the working. Six months in total; Novermber to April:

    h ttp://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/27/monthly.png

    Now to the approval ratings; first showing the UK ratings by calendar month since May 2010. Notice April’s movement:

    h ttp://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/864/approval.png

    Then a breakdown of the regional approval ratings; similar trends:

    h ttp://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/85/regionpc.png

    Lastly, the ‘Leaders doing well or badly’ graph, with the most recent updates. The most recent result might be on interest:

    h ttp://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/717/leaderj.jpg

  47. The insane thing with the German position is we’ve just seen a government, of a country who have little of the woes elsewhere in the Euro Zone, collapse because they were forced to be ‘politically conservative’.

    Hollande is actually sounding like quite a good reformer. Spending/Austerity is exactly what Labour need to package and sell.

    Accept that its impossible to endlessly borrow money from the markets, but also that its impossible to not endlessly borrow money from the markets unless you are increasing your income and reducing your costs.

    Claim the savage Tory cutting is stopping growth which would be used to pay the debts and end the deficit. In its place they need to identify ‘cost areas’ and ‘growth areas’.

    Its what makes the Tory NHS plans so ridiculous, a massive waste that will cause big problems. ZERO growth from this ridiculous spend. Yet they cut things that might create growth.

    They cut taxes for the rich when the rich arn’t spending/investing enough whilst increasing VAT on goods the less well off might spend money on – the less well off being the ones who are squeezed and would consume more if only they could! Back the Lib Dem policy of reducing taxes for the poorest and say its great, but the cost is too high, and advocate furthering off the scheme (not zero tax for more people, but ‘tax relief’).

    So many notes they could hit, this country is not dead, and it is certainly not unable to act by itself without consulting the markets. There are things to be done.

    This is the exact argument Labour need to make. The person to make it? Darling, NOT Balls. Then they win the election outright. Also the Tories are so stuck in austerity now – start announcing policy now, challenge the Gov to take it up. Its so fundamental that they can’t without being forced to. Which is a win for Labour.

  48. Terrible headlines for Livingstone in the Sun today carrying on from his worsening position in the polls. He is now being accused of avoiding paying over £200,000 in taxes and is being called a crook by his supposed previous campaign manager. Perhaps the latest poll may not end up being his worst.

  49. @Socal from a couple of threads back.

    ” At my undergraduate school, we had all these kids who were hyper obsessed with politics who would get involved in student government. They would take themselves VERY seriously. And I mean seriously. Candidates would raise campaign cash, they would meet and greet voters over by our student union, they would have supporters passing out literature to people, they would knock on doors on hall dorms, they would seek out endorsements from other on-campus student groups, and they created their own quasi political parties (or slates). Oh and once in office, they would act like politicians too (backstabbing their former coalition partners, criticizing one another to the school’s newspaper, launching formal investigations of each other, accusing each other of corrupt practices, taking advantage of the school’s budget generosity to throw lavish events at the Four Seasons Hotel and other fine dining establishments around town).”

    That all sounds very familiar. The election rules at my student union set strict limits on election spending and you’re not allowed to get endorsements from student societies. Slates are allowed, but we only discovered this recently, and there’s no culture of them. The rest is all par for the course. To my knowledge they’ve never gone to expensive hotels, on University money, but we’ve had the gossip, the backstabbing, the accusations of impropriety and formal investigations, in spades.

  50. Statgeek

    Those are fantastic to look at!
    Rest of South/London look set to cross paths in terms of the Gov’s approval ratings. Thats a real shift in support (well tbf its slightly just that London seems to be not feeling the same growing unhappiness with the government – even if still negative). Though London saw no real growth with the invisible Veto. Scotland just not putting up with the Government at all!

    Ed’s ratings put in a bit of perspective. They arn’t ‘getting better’, just stopped being as bad as they were during the relaunch, and still haven’t really recovered. Whilst Nick keeping out of photo-ops with Cameron hasn’t helped his ratings at all.

    The fact Lib Dems/Tory/UKIP’s strongest regions are all in the south, really won’t help come a general election.

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