Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 42%, LD 8%, Others 15%. This suggests the weekend poll with the Conservatives down at 29 was something of an outlier and I suspect this may be a similar outlier in the other direction, with the underlying Labour lead still around 10 or 11 points. Still, all the normal caveats apply – it may be a blip, or it may be the start of a trend. We shall see.

There was also a Survation poll in the Mirror this morning, which has topline voting intention figures of CON 30%(nc), LAB 37%(+2), LDEM 12.5%(+1.5), UKIP 9%(-2), Others 12%(nc).

209 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 35, LAB 42, LDEM 8”

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  1. @RAF – “Peter Kellner has an article on the YG site.”

    Is it just the Right’s turn for a split? It could be argued that they’ve been putting it off for a while, and Cameron’s prediliction for Liberal Conservatism – especially if he tries to stick to it going into a 2015 GE – could be the trigger.

    The possibility which Keller (half in jest) posits – Ukip topping the EU poll in 2014 – would be bad timing… just as Conservatives are contemplating a post-coalition/post-Cameron lansdcape.

    As one of the comments points out though, Ukip would need to become more than a Farage one-man-band. Farage thinks a lack of funding has been holding them back, and that the appointment of Stuart Wheeler as party treasurer last year will mean they can now “raise serious money”. To continue the SDP analogy, they would also need some significant high profile defections.

  2. @Allan Christie

    @Raf said:
    I would certainly like to see a Glasgow poll. The SNP seem’s in the bag, but how many seats do they have to win to take the council outright, and what are the key battles?
    @Allan Christie said;
    “Just another Labour myth..I have not read anything official from the SNP that they have Glasgow in the bag. Labour lost its majority on the council due to their own people leaving the party in disgust over the selection process and a defection to the SNP.”

    I genuinely do not the current position and was merely going on UKPR chatter. The consensus is Lab will win the GLA, but lose the Mayoral election. The SNP will take Glasgow. Labour will get close to 50% in Wales.

    If I am wrong what the SNPs expectations are for Glasgow?

  3. @RAF

    “I would certainly like to see a Glasgow poll. The SNP seem’s in the bag”

    I’d guess that they probably think they can force a substantial NOC situation.

  4. RAF

    Okay so you are going by what has been said on here and was pointing out was has and has not been said officaily..
    “If I am wrong what the SNPs expectations are for Glasgow?*

    I don’t know but they have never said that they would win the council.. Most of the talk has been around the Labour infighting and deselected Labour councilors standing against Labour.

    My own opinion is that the SNP will do well in Glasgow and not win a majority but could form a coalition with someone else or Labour run the council as a minority admin!!

    I think the SNP will do really well in Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire though!!

  5. @ LandO’Cake

    I know both Labour candidates for Forth ward fairly well. Vicky Redpath & Cammy Day are excellent candidates. I hope the Lib absence gives them both the opportunity to do well. I think Cammy is a fairly safe bet because he’s a ward councillor already. Vickie will need a lot of Labour 1 & 2 votes to have a chance.

  6. @Alec
    ‘One question I would have to Louise Mensche and those other Tories trying to prop up the Murdochs would be if a Labour party leader or a big union boss had presided over countless acts of proven criminality within their own organisation, stretching up to very senior levels, with clear signs of a cover up, would they accept that it was acceptable for the leader to remain in post?’

    This is where the ‘ruling classes’ really lose their sense of prospective. A Union baron would have been thrown straight into jail and labelled the ‘enemy within’!

  7. @Raf
    “The consensus is …… Labour will get close to 50% in Wales.”

    Not my view at least. The YouGov poll says 48% but in the Assembly elections last year the Lab vote share was overstated by a few % points in similar polls. In the end Labour just scraped 30 Assembly seats whereas they looked to be in line for 31-33 based on all the polling. So maybe something around 45% is more realistic. Still very good for local elections.

    Labour look set to retake Cardiff Council from the Lib Dems though. The 121 respondents in Cardiff split Con 17%, Lab 42%, LD 12% (!), Plaid 16%, Independents 6%. Even with a bit of slippage that could be decisive.

  8. Latest on the betting on Labour seat gains market (Paddy Power).

    800 or more: Evens (started at 8/13)
    Under 800: 8/11 (started at 11/10)

    Those look to be much more realistic odds than when I tipped Under 800 at 11/10 a couple of days ago. They suggest that something in the range 700-800 represents the current balance of expectations, amongst the betting public at least.

    That said, this expectations game all seems a bit contrived. Rather than being an objective judgement of improvement or decline, performance is based against expectations using unproven opinion polls. For my part, from the red corner, I prefer to form a judgement in terms of how the results measure up to similar elections in 2011. In other words, is Labour are polling significantly better than last year when ballots are actually cast. On such a basis, anything over 600 would represent a good performance and over 700 would be very good.

  9. Smukesh/Raf – There is a YouGov final call in tomorrow’s Evening Standard, I am not aware of any other London polls still to come.

    Tingedfringe/Raf – PaddyPower regularly pay out on strong favourites just ahead of the event. It gets them lots of free publicity, normally for no cost at all (though they occassionally get it wrong and have to pay out twice!). Certainly they don’t get our figures – they paid out before we’d even run them!

    Max – the two-thirds is needed to *amend* the budget.

    Ann (in Wales) – I believe the idea of weather having a disproportionate effect on different parties’ turnouts has always turned out to be a myth whenever anyone has actually crunched data on it.

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