The Times has a new Populus poll of the London mayoral election, which gives Boris Johnson his biggest lead so far. The first round figures are JOHNSON 46%, LIVINGSTONE 34%, JONES 6%, PADDICK 5%, BENITA 5%, WEBB 3%, CORTIGLIA 1%. With second preferences reallocated the final figures become JOHNSON 56%, LIVINGSTONE 44% – a very solid 12 point lead for Boris Johnson, twice his winning margin in 2008.

The poll also has Westminster voting intentions for London, which stand at CON 33%, LAB 44%, LDEM 11%, Others 13%, so again Boris is outperforming the Conservatives, Ken underperforming Labour. The eleven point lead for Labour in the capital represents a swing of 4.5 points to Labour since the election, suggesting a smaller swing to Labour than in the country as a whole (it would be the equivalent of a 2 point national Labour lead), and significantly less than YouGov’s recent London polls.

81 Responses to “Populus show Boris Johnson 12 points ahead”

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  1. The trend lines look bad for Livingstone certainly. All the polls are moving away from him, even those that have it close.

  2. I’m all for Boris winning.

    I don’t live anywhere near London, but enjoy laughing at his antics.

  3. What a strange poll. The voting intention is roughly spot on, but I suppose thats useless considering the divergence from party support to candidate support.

    Odd. Odd. Odd.

    Am going to put it to one side atm, it just doesn’t fit whats been shown so far. Not impossible, just out of fit of other polls.

  4. @MARTIN
    `I don’t live anywhere near London, but enjoy laughing at his antics.`

    If he loses,he will be on `Have I got news for you` more often :)

  5. Great poll for Boris and another hammer blow for Ed.

    When will Ed actually win something?

  6. oops !

    Why oh why oh why did they pick him. OK would have despatched BJ IMHO with aplomb.

    At least that is what I’ll be refraining should all these polls of the last months prove correct-which (if you are on this site) you have to think will most likely be the case.

    You have to think its “curtains-for-Ken”: and the wilful notion of Bradford and inner East London springs…..

    Its a shame because it will probably drown a out (along with the Scottish results pace SNP) what is looking like a great night for Labour in the English locals and non-Mayoral London vote.

  7. @AW

    It’s just an incredible outlier. It really has nothing to recommend it. Actually, I say outlier, I mean wrong :)

    Ken may scrape it on Friday, or lose by a small margin (as per YG). What he won’t do is lose by 12%. This would require (per Pupulus a 17% Boris bounce). It ain’t going to happen.

  8. Great Poll for Boris.

    What a star :-)

    Paddick in fourth place!

  9. Scottish Election 2011: Labour looses big time
    Welsh Election 2011: Labour fails to get a majority and Tories gain 2 seats
    English Locals 2011: Tories make net gains and mostly hold firm against Labour
    2012 London Mayor Election: Labour are to lose it.
    So Labour is hardly doing any good despite the polls having them ahead for most of the last 2 years.
    Laughable really.

  10. Ken romping to victory, then.

  11. Richard
    Scottish Election 2011: Labour looses big time
    Welsh Election 2011: Labour fails to get a majority and Tories gain 2 seats
    English Locals 2011: Tories make net gains and mostly hold firm against Labour
    2012 London Mayor Election: Labour are to lose it.
    So Labour is hardly doing any good despite the polls having them ahead for most of the last 2 years.
    Laughable really

    You could also add Bradford West and the Upcoming Scottish Council elections which Labour have admitted themselves that the SNP will increase their number of councilors! :)

  12. Just as I predicted, Boris moving serenely ahead, the ES front page banner headline tonight…’Boris Johnson-The Right Choice For London’ in a big blue block, won’t do his polling any harm. :-)

  13. @Richard

    Despite the biggest economic disaster since the Great Depression, an illegal war, a terribly managed war, a massively unpopular leader and being in government for 13 years – Cameron still couldn’t steal a majority from them.

    These games work both ways. Labour haven’t been polling like this in relation to the Tories so consistently.
    They are set to have massive gains across England (I think their underestimating with their expectations); and quite frankly Scottish election makes little difference to the general health of Labour, except strong dissatisfaction with SLAB and the lack of progress under the 13 years Labour were in power.

    Least Labour have gained places where they go out of popularity, Tories just destroy themselves even more.

    A well timed article here:

    If anything the fact Labour lose in Scotland where they held their GE vote, may (probably) lose in London where their very popular – just backs the idea that the UK needs more regional state-like representation. Instead of these rather cheap ‘Mayors’ they should create super-councils for greater regions. No one wins in the current system.

  14. Well here they all are! I wondered where they’ve been.

    1-0 the City at half time.

    Wonder what the final score will be…and by Friday?

  15. I’m surprised people are giving this poll any credence. We’ll see on Friday afternoon.

  16. BJ’s second term will have him totally uninhibited as he cannot go for a third term. An even more extreme madcap mayorality! More trouble for Cameron.

  17. @John C

    Why can’t he go for a third term? The rules don’t prevent this.

  18. POPULUS………The new Gold – Standard……… :-)

    By the way, according to the Labour ad at the top of the page, ‘The Tories are on a different planet’, as far as the Mayoral election is concerned, I agree. :-)

  19. Prediction for tonight:

    Con 31
    Lab 43
    LD 9

  20. Yougov have Labour down to a 7% lead….

    CON 35% LAB 42% LD 8% UKIP 7%

    As Anthony would say normal caveats apply

  21. At last some good news amongst all the gloom. Boris has proved to be an excellent mayor, more interested in the well being of London, than Venezeula. Much to the chagrin of the left who wrote him off as a buffoon (and still do).

    He will be a strong candidate to replace DC when the time comes.

  22. Meanwhile in the real world, leaving aside the popularity contest for head prefect, Paddy Power have changed their market for the GB local elections.

    It’s now a simple choice between:
    Labour <800 gains 11/10
    Labour 800+ gains 8/13

    The better bet is in the <800 market. 799 seats would be an astonishingly good result for Labour.

  23. What’s with all the partisan comments here tonight?

  24. @Shneifer
    “What’s with all the partisan comments here tonight?”

    One out of the many thousands of candidates that the blues are putting up on Thursday is revealed to have a double digit lead in a single poll.

  25. YG poll shows the folly of concentrating on the Hunt affair. I did say there were no votes in it. EM had let DC get away with a double dip.

  26. Some interesting changes in Paddy Power’s market on four selected Lib Dem councils that the Conservatives are seeking to take majority control in: Portsmouth, Cheltenham, Colchester, Winchester.

    Four days ago they were offering 8/1 on none, and 5/1 on one. It’s now 5/2 on none, and 7/4 on one.

  27. That’s better .

    Two nice Polls :-)

  28. @RAF
    `YG poll shows the folly of concentrating on the Hunt affair`

    Perhaps you are right…But we need some more polls to show the trend…Could just be the effect of the strong Andrew Marr showing from Cameron

  29. To be totally honest I’m sick and tired ( as I’m sure 54 million other UK residents are) of the overwhelming London Mayor commentary we have had of late – it’s almost as though it’s the only election in town on Thursday – according to the media anyway…. Grumble over !

  30. @Colin

    You sound as if you’ve be waiting a while :)

  31. Its likely an outlier tonight just like the recent Labour 45 was.

    Absolutely agree that EdM lost it by going so hysterically for the Hunt-Murdoch scenario rather than pasting “recovery is secure” ConlIb on he economy.

    But then how can he ?

    He won’t produce any detailed costed economic policies!

    Until Labour do- in the process annoying the vocal far left especially amongst union leaderships- they cannot take advantage of this governments arguable economic mismanagement/ making a bad economic situation left by an (largely) unfortunate Brown EVEN worse.


    `t’s almost as though it’s the only election in town on Thursday`

    Is it not ? :)

  33. RAF

    @”You sound as if you’ve be waiting a while ”

    Everything comes to he who waits :-)

    We have three years.

  34. Chrislane, do you think the 8% for LibDems is a bit too high?

  35. SMUKESH,
    silly me, i forgot London was at the centre of the universe …… ; )

  36. Tories gain is UKIP’s loss. Left holding firm at 40+%

    Maybe we can hear a bit less about Labour’s vote being soft & a wee bit more about the Tory or UKIP ‘softness’.

    Ed M is correct to go with the Hunt thing; too much emphasis on the economy now is too risky. If the numbers are later revised upwards, they’dlook silly. Ed & Ed will go after the Tories if there is no upward revision when the final figures are released.

  37. @Rob

    It’s been an odd day. I’m starting to agree with you.:)

    But aren’t Lab in a bind anyway. “Cut a little less..” isn’t exactly a winning strategy. It doesn’t appeal to the left, right or centre, even if it’s correct.

    I think they should focus in most policy areas. That’s a centrist idea with Labour roots.

  38. By ‘eck but the over60s are a jaundiced lot!

    In tonight’s YG poll, on the questions: “Which party has the best policies on…?” the over60s have the highest response for “None” of any age group for every question.

    Why can’t I get the Enfield & Whitehouse Old Gits out of my head?

  39. Smukesh,agree about the need for more polls,and this
    one does seem like an outlier.How many people are
    really going to be influenced by the Andrew Marr show?
    The economy will be around for a long time yet.I believe
    EM was absolutely right to pursue the JH affair.Now
    Cameron is absolutely nailed to a positive outcome to
    this.Leveson may yet be deadly for them both.

  40. @SMukesh @Ann(in Wales)

    Labour is actually up 2% from yesterday, so EdM is doing just fine. Some of the wavering UKIP have gone back to the Tories for this poll and it will be interesting to see whether the UKIPpers stay loyal to their party or vote Tory come GE.

  41. The YouGov poll and Populus ones are probably a bit of an outlier imo, in the same way that the previous 29% Tory one was. At the mo, I’d probably predict:-

    1) Boris to be re-elected London Mayor.
    2) Labour to lose in Scotland to the SNP, but make gains of around 800-900 in England. They should also perform well in Wales.
    3) The Libs to make many losses.

    Guess all the parties will find a way of trying to create good publicity from the results, but I expect Labour to do much better overall than in 2011.

  42. I think Tories on here need to calm down. YG seems to be a bit of an outlier. How can the Tories go from 29 to 35 in a couple of days? Also Labour are up 2 on their score a couple of days ago? Something isn’t right. Such a big shift has to caused by a massive event (like Black Wednesday or a bank going bust) which hasn’t happened. If Labour support had jumped 6 points in a couple of days and Labour supporters were crowing, Tory supporters on here would say calm down!

  43. RAF

    “Cut a little less..” isn’t exactly a winning strategy”

    Perversely (possibly) I think come the next GE- and a weary jaundiced electorate looking for even the tiniest scrap of light- I think it WILL be.

    Plus it will also be- in our globalised interdependent and financial sector controlled capitalist economy where we cannot individually reflate- economically competent.

    Offering less austerity but economic realism is the only possible route to an overall majority for Labour at the next election IMHO.

    By which time MOST of the nasty decisions will have been taken/ implemented and (pace double dip) their nasty consequences can be blamed squarely upon ConLib.

    I still think its going to be a hung parliament though. For 2 reasons- most UKIP will hold nose and vote Dave; EdM if leader will lose Labour uncommitted voters who tend to vote ‘presidentially’.

    Given that ConLib are doing so badly I think its getting less likely that EdM will be give up. I used to think he would fall on his own sword but I am coming around to what @amber has always said- he’ll have to be dragged kicking and screaming from the leadership and Labour are not going to decapitate him as that would be suicidal.

    He either resigns (if he has failed to make the all important *personal* breakthrough by early 2014)…or we are stuck with him (and a likely hung parliament.

  44. @Ann

    But politics to.some degree is about Elections. And EM had to prove he can pummel DC at the upcoming elections. It’s not good enough to unsettle him, or cause the Tories to take dips between elections. Unlesd you think DC will fall as a result of Leveson, I don’t believe EM’s strategy in pursuing it will cause Lab to win elections!

  45. Ah the perfect end to a wonderful birthday. Boris 12 points ahead. All I need now is for him to actually do the business on Thursday, and Hollande to win on Sunday and that will be the icing on the cake for a perfect week :)

  46. @BigD,

    The Tories are probably around 33% on Yougov. 29 was never likely imo, just as a 7% Labour lead is probably too small imo.

    I wonder if Yougov are now weighting according to likelihood to vote as we are so close to the local elections. That would explain the shift too.

  47. Yes. I believe Levenson will bring the Government down.

  48. Correction: Actually, looking more closely at recent Yougov polls, I’d say the Tories are probably only on 32%, or thereabouts.

    `He either resigns (if he has failed to make the all important *personal* breakthrough by early 2014)…or we are stuck with him (and a likely hung parliament.`

    We should give the man his due…He called the hacking issue right…Ed Balls has said he wouldn`t have gone against Murdoch and cannot see David Milliband doing it either…We have Ed to thank for cutting the big M to size and if it does a bit of damage to Cameron on the side,brilliant.

  50. “Yes. I believe Levenson will bring the Government down.”

    You’ve been hitting the bottle heavier than I have, and thats saying something.

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