The Times has a new Populus poll of the London mayoral election, which gives Boris Johnson his biggest lead so far. The first round figures are JOHNSON 46%, LIVINGSTONE 34%, JONES 6%, PADDICK 5%, BENITA 5%, WEBB 3%, CORTIGLIA 1%. With second preferences reallocated the final figures become JOHNSON 56%, LIVINGSTONE 44% – a very solid 12 point lead for Boris Johnson, twice his winning margin in 2008.

The poll also has Westminster voting intentions for London, which stand at CON 33%, LAB 44%, LDEM 11%, Others 13%, so again Boris is outperforming the Conservatives, Ken underperforming Labour. The eleven point lead for Labour in the capital represents a swing of 4.5 points to Labour since the election, suggesting a smaller swing to Labour than in the country as a whole (it would be the equivalent of a 2 point national Labour lead), and significantly less than YouGov’s recent London polls.


81 Responses to “Populus show Boris Johnson 12 points ahead”

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  1. @NickP
    “Yes. I believe Levenson will bring the Government down.”

    Have you seen Martin Rowson’s cartoon on the Jeremy Hunt enquiry?

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  2. Maybe UKIP are fading a bit as these are local elections.

    If they were Euro elections I’m sure they’d do very well – at Con and LD expense in particular.

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  3. @Liz H

    “Chrislane, do you think the 8% for LibDems is a bit too high?”

    I would imagine Chris has hunkered down after tonight’s result in that little local affair in Manchester. I’d warned him some time ago that I could see a Blue Moon rising and a red sun setting and I sense a torch has been passed on tonight in football’s balance of power. The sad thing is that it took gargantuan amounts of Middle Eastern money to bring it about, although not too many football fans will weep for the Old Trafford based Glaser Franchise.

    As for tonight’s London Mayoral polls, Livingstone was dead meat once his personal tax arrangements became public and he’s a goner come Thursday. My fervent hope is for a derisory turnout of 40% or below and I trust that the sizeable majority of Londoners, just as they did in 2007, will turn their backs on this largely meaningless charade. Two bald men fighting over a comb.

    [snip]

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  4. I think we’re in the pre election hyperventilation period, where posters just get a bit over excited. The 12% London lead looks a little suspect, purely as it seems to be significantly out of line with other polls, but it is the most recent we’ve got, so who knows. It’s no good just dismissing the ones you don’t like.

    The YG national poll is interesting. Labour up to a government forming 42%, but the Tories have magically bounced up by 6%. Someone suggested this could be because of a strong performance on the Marr show. Really?

    It’s far more likely that the 29% was the bottom of MoE (as some of us posted when Labour posters got very excited over the weekend) and this 35% is at the top of the MoE range. Unless Tory posters think that the Tory party has increased their voter numbers by more than a fifth in 48 hours, I think they too should calm down.

    I have to admit that a fair deal of these ‘Labour should be x% ahead now’ and ‘I don’t believe these polls – Ken will win’ type of posts are pretty unedifying. UKPR has always had a collective sense of pride that we are generally a bit better than that, and I would really appreciate reading some of the cracking posts (from all sides) that manage to deal with polls and politics in a slightly more intelligent manner.

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  5. @Rob

    I’m not saying “cut a little less” is bad economics, it’s just bad politics. It doesn’t inspire.

    The LDs may be able to recover by ditching Clegg and Alexander.

    The Tories will.say, they did what we said they would do.

    Lab need either innovative (cheap) policies, or an inpirational leader with widespead appeal (Blair, Salmond).

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  6. Good Evening All.
    LIZH and CROSSBAT11.

    Regards!

    yes, 8% is probably too high, in reality at GE it will be 4% or so IMO/CREDO.

    I mentally prepared for the footy result.

    I have already ordered a Man City Cake for our SJ Priest, only 60 years of age, who is a huge fan of Citeh.. A brave man, much loved, who is being kept alive my medicines, but He has been told he will not live after September this year.

    Shankly was wrong, football is not more imp than life and death.

    42% for ED seems strong to me.

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  7. @ALEC
    `‘I don’t believe these polls – Ken will win’ type of posts are pretty unedifying`

    Point taken but while the Tories are down in London,for Boris to increase his lead seems counter-intuitive that`s all

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  8. My prediction is obviously for Boris win in London.

    But contrary to all this 700-900 seats gains, I expect Labour to do much worse than expected, maybe 300-400 at best, and the Tories to be much more resilient, in the councils. The LDs will of course be obliterated. And I don’t think UKIP will actually do well at the end of the day either.

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  9. @Crossbat11
    “As for tonight’s London Mayoral polls, Livingstone was dead meat…”

    I have to admit I am and always have been a Ken fan and hoping he will win against all the odds.

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  10. Boris Johnson will obviosuly win, everyone luvs a BJ

    Ken will lose, cry, but come back in 2016, and david will lose councils but be like meh, and hollande will win in france fuk dem over, and then all the french will leave

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  11. SSIMON
    I agree with your analysis on Lab and Lib Dems.

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  12. RobS

    Is there a precedent for an Opposition giving detailed, costed economic proposals 3 years out from an Election? Cos I’m damned if I can think of one.

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  13. Just a reminder that in 2011 the number of seats contested was

    Con 5,023, Lab 1,602, LD 1,846

    Some Lab Gains from Tory, but the main story was LD losing 749 seats to both parties, but primarily to Labour.

    This year the numbers are

    Con 1,474, Lab 1,327, LD 787

    I still don’t see the scope for Labour to make the kind of gains people are confidently predicting.

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  14. @Max

    Happy Birthday :)

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  15. Speculation on the Hunt affair seems to be largely following party lines, but I suspect there will be a fair bit more damage to come out before this is over. I doubt he will survive, and Cameron will suffer embarrassment in due course.

    Cameron’s performance today has been pretty much universally panned in the press. ITN were pointing out the shouting, and a Iain Dale’s description of it as ‘wince inducingly ill judged’ is not great coverage from normal sympathisers. Even Benedict Brogan has taken Cameron to task for his anger at being called to answer questions, pointing out that Parliament is where these things are meant too be sorted out, not TV studios. Many others have pointed to the bewildering incoherence of the line of defence that it’s the Leveson inquiries job to look into this, despite it being abundantly clear that it isn’t.

    All in all, in press terms, this has been a very bad day for Cameron. It looks increasingly like he has lost a great deal of sympathy from the media, when once he was their darling. From his shouting performance to his gauche put downs to backbenchers (Dennis Skinner today) arrogance is the word that keeps popping up.

    This is what many Tory backbenchers said about him and Osborne back in 2007/8, but it’s now taking hold in the public narrative, and I suspect it will get pretty toxic for them unless they spike it soon. They are losing friends at quite an alarming rate.

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  16. @RAF

    Thank you, it nice to have a birthday, went out with family, it was good, but not going out with friends til tomorow, but like, thats just lame, so im in on my bday, thats just lame

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  17. @Liz H

    “I have to admit I am and always have been a Ken fan and hoping he will win against all the odds.”

    Good luck to you and there’s nothing wrong whatsoever in being a fan of Ken Livingstone and wanting him to win on Thursday.

    And while I don’t share your enthusiasm for the man, nor for the idea of Mayoral elections, I would still much prefer him to win than Johnson. For that reason, and also because you seem to be a very nice person, I hope you get your wish next Thursday!

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  18. @MAX KING OF THE FANTASTIC COUNTY OF KENT

    Happy Birthday Max. Are you truanting from Uni or do you commute from home?

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  19. @Crossbat11

    Thank you.

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  20. Thank you lizzy, of all the reds, i love you best.

    and yeah, i go back tomorrow, should have been yesterday, i could not commute too far.

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  21. Spain is back in recession and retail sales in Greece for Feb fell 13% by volume. That’s an implosion. What’s going on in Euro land is really beginning to look terminal.

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  22. “Spain is back in recession and retail sales in Greece for Feb fell 13% by volume. That’s an implosion. What’s going on in Euro land is really beginning to look terminal.”

    I now understand sharden froider :P

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  23. schadenfraude

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  24. Thank you Max.

    There is a new thread people.

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  25. Jenny Jones back in 3rd place ahead of the Lib Dems for Mayor.

    Given the London polls showing variation on UKIP, Greens and others either side of the magic 5% mark, it could be tight as to who comes 3rd, 4th and below for Mayor and who other than Tory/Lab gets seats, and how many, on The Assembly – which in turn could have a significant influence on what the Mayor can do.

    One thing is for sure though, if Paddick does get beat by Jenny Jones, it will be seen as a serious blow to the Lib Dems on top of their likely mauling in the council elections.

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  26. @GREENGIRL
    “Jenny Jones back in 3rd place ahead of the Lib Dems for Mayor.”

    Hurray.

    “One thing is for sure though, if Paddick does get beat by Jenny Jones, it will be seen as a serious blow to the Lib Dems on top of their likely mauling in the council elections.”

    Hurray again.

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  27. @Max

    You should have celebrated last weekend

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  28. @leftylamptom

    “Is there a precedent for an Opposition giving detailed, costed economic proposals 3 years out from an Election? Cos I’m damned if I can think of one”

    That’s because we are in unprecedented times comrade- and unprecedented actions are called for if we want an working-majority.

    However I am more than happy to keep-it-blank policy wise: and pray for a hung parliament where Labour are the largest party and have the possibility to construct a coalition with the leftist Lib Dems who survive the chaos ;-)

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  29. @ Rob Sheffield

    On a pretty grim day for the Lib Dems (in terms of polling) it’s good to know that there are Labour supporters who envisage us Lib Dems remaining in Government post-2015. Thanks for helping to cheer me up.

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  30. Only a few days until polling day – our psephologist considers the polling in the race for London Mayor – also some very good insight into canvass returns.
    Well worth a read:
    http://www.allthatsleft.co.uk/2012/04/is-boris-really-coasting-to-victory/

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  31. If im honest I cant see any evidence for the fact that high turnout helped the Tories in 2008. Ok a differential turnout between outer and inner helped, but a decrease in turnout this time doesnt imply theres a bigger decrease in turnout in outer than inner london. Its clutching at straws

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