The Evening Standard has published the penultimate YouGov poll for this year’s London mayoral election. Topline figures for the first round (with changes from last week) are JOHNSON 44%(+1), LIVINGSTONE 41%(nc), PADDICK 6%(-2), WEBB 3%(nc), BENITA 3%(nc), JONES 3%(+1), CORTIGLIA 1%(nc). With second preferences reallocated the final figures are JOHNSON 52%(+1), LIVINGSTONE 48%(-1). Full tabs are here.
In the London Assembly the shares are CON 32%, LAB 45%, LD 8%, Others 15% in the constituency vote and CON 30%, LAB 44%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 8%, GREEN 5%, BNP 2% in the list vote. On a uniform swing this would translate into 12 seats for Labour, 8 for the Conservatives, Lib Dem 2, UKIP 2, Green 1.
The rest of the poll had banks of questions asking which candidate people thought best understood the concerns of various demographic groups and which they trusted on various issues.
On the demographics, Boris is seen as better understanding homeowners and the middle classes, Ken commuters, poorer Londonders, older people and ethnic minorities. On understanding “people like you” Ken has a narrow lead, 26% to 23%. On the issues, Ken has a lead on transport, cost of living and uniting London’s communities. Boris leads on the economy and crime, with the two candidates neck-and-neck on creating jobs.
There were also some questions on “driverless” tube trains. People support their introduction by 44% to 36%. Asked if they’ll make the tube safer, more expensive, or lead to more strikes, on balance people think they will make the tube cheaper and reduce strikes… but by 41% to 8% think it will make the tube less safe.