The full tables for the YouGov/Sunday Times poll are now up here. In line with the topline figures showing the Conservatives dropping below 30%, the rest of the poll was also pretty miserable for the Tories.

David Cameron’s approval rating is down to minus 31 (from minus 23 a week ago), this is the first time it has dropped below minus 30. Asked more specifically about Cameron’s strengths and weaknesses there is a mixed picture. 41% think he is strong, 44% weak; 42% think he is competent, 47% incompetent; 42% likeable, 46% dislikeable. Where he falls down on being out of touch – only 23% think he is in touch, 69% think he is out of touch (and in a subsequent question, half of respondents think he is out of touch because of his background).

On the economy questions there is a clear negative impact from the return to recession. The economic optimism tracker (the proportion of people who think their finances will get better minus those that think it will get worse) is minus 49, the lowest since the end of last year. The proportion of people thinking that the government is managing the economy well is down 5 points to 26%, the first time it has fallen below 30. Asked why they think the economy is back in recession 32% blame the government the most (including a majority of Labour voters), 29% blame the Eurozone crisis the most (the most popular answer amongst Conservative voters), 17% blame the last government the most.

On the semi-regular question YouGov ask about economic strategy 31% now think the government should stick to their present strategy of prioritising the deficit, compared to 41% who think they should concentrate on growth instead. Despite people apparently preferring Labour’s policy, Cameron & Osborne are still more trusted to run the economy than Miliband & Balls, by 36% to 28%. Asked specifically about the future of George Osborne, 45% think he should be replaced compared to 24% who think he should stay – the answers are largely on partisan grounds however, 71% of Labour voters want him to go, 65% of Tory voters want him to stay.

Finally there was a specific question on Jeremy Hunt, 59% of people think he should resign, 14% think he should stay. Even amongst Conservative supporters more respondents thought he should go than stay (by 36% to 33%).


135 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times on the return to recession”

1 2 3
  1. @ Rob Sheffield,

    Am very much in agreement with your assessment of EM. Until he can improve his numbers any Lab VI lead will evaporate as an election gets nearer.

    The only hope is that when he actually starts to articulate some clearly thought through policies and narrative he will begin to improve, but that is by no means definite.

    Interestingly during the last three weeks his numbers were getting quite close to Cameron, but then he’s had to pop up campaigning, had TV coverage of him outside parlt and had some scrutiny over the last week on his policies and his numbers then take a hit.

  2. I think Danny could sit in a Labour Cabinet but only the other 2 if the LDs havew a strong hand which looks unlikely at the moment.

  3. Jim Jam

    I think there would be an outcry from the Labour side if any of them were sitting in a Labour cabinet.

    It would depend on the electoral arithmetic but I think a formal Labour/LD coalition will be highly unlikely without a drastic change in the LD leadership. Saying that Laws will go Tory before joining with Labour, Clegg will have left politics by then and Alexander will be seatless so perhaps with Farron and others there may be some possibilities

  4. Adrian B.

    It’s a given that Miliband is not popular. I was quoting the figures to demonstrate that he is considerably less unpopular among the key swing voters than the other two.

    I’ve given my two pennorth on this at length times many. It is that the quality of the leaders (or at least, the voters’ perception of the leaders) is of secondary importance. Put simply, they are all considered to be garbage, so why should anyone make their judgement on this factor? Now, if Cameron had been seen by these voters to be significantly more competent than Miliband, there might be more reason for Labour to have the jitters.

    For what its worth, not very many weeks back, Cameron and Miliband were viewed about equal by these voters. Big change in not many weeks. And who says the change has finished?

    As for Clegg doing something marginally popular, I don’t doubt that that is his game plan. I do doubt that he will be able to manufacture something big enough to make up for the arm-long charge sheet that is already pinned up against him.

  5. DaveM
    “It is not a good starting piont to use 79 or any other year. The difference now is the fact that the LDs have been in power and start from a much higher base. Hence there are more votes to be won. In which case there is every possibility of large swings in 2015”

    I agree 100% that the collapse of the LDs puts us in “Everything’s Possible” territory in 15.

    Just to indulge myself and extend the 74-79/10-15 analogy though, in both periods, the LDs crashed, not least because a bright, charismatic young leader turned out to be not what he had seemed.

    In the analogy, by the way, we are now in the IMF period. Different details of course, but in both 76 and 12 a Govt which inherited a nightmare of a situation (then proceeded to preside over it getting even worse) managed to hang on to its VI for a couple of years, then lost credibility in a welter of bad news. In both cases, a thoroughly not-liked Opposition leader saw their party romp into double-digit poll leads.

  6. @Jim Jam – “I think Danny could sit in a Labour Cabinet.”

    Bear in mind the Sun/YouGov poll earlier this month (April16th?) of 76 seats where Lib Dems are “strong“:
    Con 28% (-4% since 2010), Lab 31% (+12%) Lib 24% (-17%)

    “Energy Secretary Ed Davey is the only Lib Dem Cabinet minister who would survive the chop.”

  7. @Rob S

    Now you’re receiving the Colin seal of approval for your “sensible” posts, you could well be approaching the legendary Eoin Clarke status of the Tories favourite “left leaning” poster.

    Of course, my definition of “sensible” goes something like this; “the continuous and repetitive expression of sentiments that are comforting to Conservatives.” These sentiments usually contain both the rubbishing of the current Labour leader and the writing off of his party’s chances at the next election”.

    Keep ticking those two boxes, Rob, and even old Roly might join the fan club! lol

  8. @bazsc

    Clegg and Laws will *have* to go from LD leadership before a deal can be done after the next election. IMO Labour can work with the centre left ‘social liberals’ but NOT the orange book ultras / 19th century liberals who despise the state (and policies designed to ‘actively’ try to narrow the gap between rich and poor)..

    It will be the reverse of the 2010 election- with (I think) Labour being clear about this *before* election day: rather than waiting until after the election to block a Lib-Lab deal as Clegg and his orangies did (ditto waiting till after election to block the much more sensible political notion for LDs of C&S).

    Personally I have no problem whatsoever with being supported in power by the social liberals….with Clegg and co exiled to the back benches and carping from the sidelines along with the Tories = the orange bookers won’t be as ‘loyal’ to a LabLib coalition IMHO as are the social liberals to the ConLib current coalition).

  9. Hi,

    Could someone advise me how I might add a background party thing to my posts?

    Thanks.

  10. Crossbat

    I am both centre left and realistic.

    I don’t do OTT quick-to-judge hyper optimistic posts.

    Arguing currently that EdM is a winner and that Labour will get a walloping majority is not in the least bit sensible IMHO: by anyone’s definition of what ‘sensible’ is and based on all the current evidence.

  11. @bazsc

    PS to be clearer add to Clegg and Laws, Danny Alexander as well. That would be a symbolic axing of the hatchet man

  12. Rob

    I agree that it is far to early to call the next election. we now have a very mobile electorate who are not as tribal as in the past. As a result w will have a lot of swings both ways over the next three years, however the one thing which must be a given is that the Lds will have only a handful of seats.

    I would also argue that come 2015 there will be a return to a more traditional two party out come as prtest votes go home. With out the LDs in place to recieve these votes we might see the two main parties taking alarger share of the votes than any time since the 60’s.

  13. @Rob

    Agreed

  14. Boris dragged into the News International issue tonight in London news. Could swing it for Ken.

  15. Could someone could let me know about the background thing? I’d like it to be deepest red.

  16. @ Adrian B

    Interestingly during the last three weeks his [Ed M’s] numbers were getting quite close to Cameron, but then he’s had to pop up campaigning, had TV coverage of him outside parlt and had some scrutiny over the last week on his policies and his numbers then take a hit.
    ——————————-
    Really? I thought that this poll showed the narrowest YG gap ever between DC & EM. Is that not correct?
    8-)

  17. @ michaelinhithergreen

    Hello & welcome, new person. You need to register with the site before you can pick a background.
    8-)

  18. @”Eoin Clarke status of the Tories favourite “left leaning” poster.”

    Yeah…well….we can all make mistakes.

  19. @DaveM

    There is a substantial portion of the electorate who now dislike all three main parties. There’s a very good chance of minor parties winning more seats in 2015 than we’ve seen before. If the SNP cleans up in Scottish seats, for example, two party politics will remain a distant dream for Labour and Tory supporters.

  20. Very interesting Radio 4 Westminster Hour tonight.

  21. Chrislane do tell I am to busy converting my old LP’s to iTunes to listen tonight.

  22. @ Green

    That may be the case. However it would be interesting to see polling data where people are asked if they want another coialition. I think that the answer to that will be no. It is once that question is asked at a GE that actual votes are cast and there will be a return to two party politics, at least in terms of seats.

    I take your piont about Scotland and Labour have work to do uo there.

  23. @Rob Sheffield
    “Clegg and Laws will *have* to go from LD leadership before a deal can be done after the next election. IMO Labour can work with the centre left ‘social liberals’ but NOT the orange book ultras / 19th century liberals who despise the state (and policies designed to ‘actively’ try to narrow the gap between rich and poor)..
    It will be the reverse of the 2010 election- with (I think) Labour being clear about this *before* election day: rather than waiting until after the election to block a Lib-Lab deal as Clegg and his orangies did (ditto waiting till after election to block the much more sensible political notion for LDs of C&S).
    Personally I have no problem whatsoever with being supported in power by the social liberals….with Clegg and co exiled to the back benches and carping from the sidelines along with the Tories = the orange bookers won’t be as ‘loyal’ to a LabLib coalition IMHO as are the social liberals to the ConLib current coalition).”

    I’ve argued much the same many times on these boards but in a LD context, I.e. that without the removal of Clegg and Alexander, at the next election, the LDs will be obliterated.

    As far as Orange Bookers (i.e. economic liberals) generally are concerned, many of these could work with New,Labour types who I suspect form a large part of the,current PLP.

    Personally, I would prefer a LD (social democrats) / Lab (social democrats) coalition. That could certainly work. Particularly if Labour could,ditch,the neoliberalism and,triangulation.

  24. Just returned from a Ken rally in Central London…All the big names were there including Dianne Abbott,Tessa Jowell and Sadiq Khan…Also future star Owen Jones…The mood is quite positive though everyone realises it`s going to be a close election…Hearing Ken speak,convinced more than ever he is the man for London… Looking forward to a neck and neck Youguv poll tomorrow

  25. @SMUKESH

    Was the rally live on TV if not I think you will have to wait until Wednesdat before it has any effect on the VI

  26. I just noticed on Ken4London twitter messages,the photo of the rally has gone online…Funnily,you could see the back of my head on the last row,second from right…My 5 seconds of fame:)

  27. @Smukesh

    Yes, we Khan (maybe)!

  28. @DAVEM
    `Was the rally live on TV`

    I don`t think it was though a television camera was there…The activists are all pretty fired up and the racial mix was roughly the same as London itself…The old hand next to me felt that this was one of the better moods he had seen.

  29. @ Rob Sheffield and Raf

    The idea that the Lib Dems are split between orange bookers and social liberals is largely an illusion. Proof of that is the fact that the party overwhelming endorsed the coalition agreement at its special conference in Birmingham. I attended the first Social Liberal Forum conference last summer. Most SLFers (including Evan Harris who acts as an unoffcial spokesman) support the logic of the coalition. The liberal tradition is a broad one and inevitably people within the Lib Dems emphasise different parts of the traditions but I think successful political parties tend to be pretty ‘broad churches’.

    Having said all that I am relaxed about a Lab/LD coalition after the next election and, if Nick Clegg felt that his resignation from the leadership would help the party form some partnership with Labour, I am sure he would do the right thing…

    As we found out in 2010 a great deal turns on the precise parliamentary arithmetic – something none of us can begin to predict more than three years before the next General Election (apologies to those over-enthusiastic Labourites who are already celebrating Ed Miliband’s overall majority and a return to 1950s style two party politics!)

  30. @ Smukesh

    I think Boris will win. I have been astonished by the number of voters out there who are not Tories but will vote for Boris because they like him… One of my work colleagues left the Labour Party in 1996 because she thought that Blair was taking the party too far to the right. She’s voting for Boris!

    I’m still agonising over how to use my second preference vote. I don’t like Ken or Boris, but which is the lesser of the two evils?

  31. greenchristian
    @DaveM

    There is a substantial portion of the electorate who now dislike all three main parties. There’s a very good chance of minor parties winning more seats in 2015 than we’ve seen before. If the SNP cleans up in Scottish seats, for example, two party politics will remain a distant dream for Labour and Tory supporters.
    _______

    Not sure why you put the SNP in “The minor Party” category? Nothing minor about them in Scotland I might add!!

  32. @DAVID
    `I think Boris will win`

    Perhaps that will happen…And I would have said that would be the case if not for omnishambles…Personally I haven`t canvassed for anyone before but persuaded to do so by Ken`s record…Am hoping at the least he gives Boris a run for his money

  33. @Rob S

    “I am both centre left and realistic.
    I don’t do OTT quick-to-judge hyper optimistic posts.”

    To be honest, Rob, neither do most people on these pages. We might all get over-enthused once in a while and miscall certain developments on the political scene, but I see mostly realism and sober analysis, even if it becomes a little partisan from time to time.

    My gripe isn’t with realism, it’s with defeatism. Measured optimism and positivity for me any day.

    Anyway, we will shortly have firm evidence of the accuracy of your political soothsaying on Thursday and Sunday in the coming week. A drubbing for Livingstone on Thursday (I tend to agree with you there, sadly) and, if I remember rightly a too close to call French Presidential election on Sunday after “80% of the FN vote goes to Sarkozy” and damned near all of the centrist first round vote also. The “Trot vote” all goes to Hollande, apparently, and after all that to-ing and fro-ing, maybe an eventual win for Sarkozy. Not so sure there, Rob, but I await the accuracy of your poll-defying prediction with great interest!!

  34. @SMukesh – “… see the back of my head”

    It’s nice to put a back of the head to the name.

  35. @BILLY BOB
    `It’s nice to put a back of the head to the name`

    Thanks…The back is better looking than the front :)

1 2 3