We don’t normally get any polls on Friday nights (it’s my night off, dammit, hence this will be a very short post!), but there is a new ComRes online poll in tomorrow’s Independent. Topline figures are CON 34%(nc), LAB 39%(-1), LDEM 10%(-1), Others 17%(+2) – changes are from their poll last weekend in the Independent on Sunday. The poll was conducted between Wednesday and today, so will be after the revelations about Jeremy Hunt and the news that the country in back in recession.

On the specifics of Jeremy Hunt, 63% agreed with a statement that Mr Hunt should resign in the light of revelations that his office was secretly passing information to News Corporation during its bid to take over BSkyB, 12% disagreed.


154 Responses to “ComRes/Indy – CON 34, LAB 39, LDEM 10”

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  1. Anthony

    Commenting on the figures, Niall Stuart, Chief Executive of Scottish Renewables, said:

    ‘This poll suggests that Donald Trump’s comments on the development of wind power in Scotland have actually made some people more positive about wind power than they were before. More than three quarters of respondents indicated their views on wind power were unchanged.”

    Is that an unusual result of lobbying?

  2. ALEC

    @”Note that there was absolutely no evidence that Cable had actually done anything relating to the bid in any way appropriate – he merely stated a personal view over Murdoch. ”

    Hmmm:-

    ““You may wonder what is happening with the Murdoch press”, Mr Cable said. “I have declared war on Mr Murdoch and I think we’re going to win”.

    ““I didn’t politicise it, because it is a legal question, but he [Mr Murdoch] is trying to take over BSkyB, you probably know that,” the Business Secretary said. “He has minority shares … And he wants a majority. And a majority-control would give him a massive stake.
    “I have blocked it, using the powers that I have got. And they are legal powers that I have got. I can’t politicise it, but for the people who know what is happening, this is a big thing. His whole empire is now under attack. So there are things like that, that being in Government … All we can do in opposition is protest.”

    Daily Telegraph
    21.12.2010

  3. A computer expert friend of mine has told me that interfering with adverts might bring a virus into the computer, and I need this lap top for my work.

  4. It’s certainly true that Murdoch’s whole empire IS under attack.

    Really, Cable should have kept his trap shut. I mean what was he thinking of? Did he think those two (fake) constituents were going to fall in love with him?

  5. @ John Murphy

    …as even Mr Salmond is finding out as billionaires like Murdoch & Trump tarnish his integrity.
    —————————————
    An almost unbelievable quote from Alex Salmond (reported in the Gruan):

    He [Alex Salmond] said he was “delighted” that Murdoch described him as a “funny guy” and added that he did not believe his newspapers were the only ones guilty of phone hacking. “The idea that malpractice and potential illegality is confined to one organisation is for the birds,” he said.
    —————————————
    I hope you will believe me: I am not given to faux outrage, but I was furious when I read the above quote.

    For the First Minister of my country to say he is “delighted” that Murdoch finds him to be a “funny guy” beggars belief. [Hint to Alex Salmond, he is laughing at you not with you].

    But my anguish is caused by the second part of the quote. A First Minister for Scotland actively lobbying in support of a corporation who’s executives & employees are under investigation for illegal activities & bribing public officials, then excuse himself on the grounds that ‘everybody is at it’. How dare he?

    Scots want opportunities & jobs, but not at any price. We do not want ‘corrupt’ organizations gaining an unfair advantage by using unethical & illegal tactics. This will crowd out the ethical & scrupulously legal firms because how can they compete against ‘cheats’ – especially against ‘cheats’ who have the full support of the First Minister?

    Jeremy Hunt will face an inquiry of some sort, no doubt about that. But who will scutinise the ‘secret’ deals which may have been made by Alex Salmond & his staff in Scotland’s parliament?
    8-)

  6. but Amber…

    will your righteous anger shift vote intention?

  7. Regardless of what happens, the Tory party has become openly disenchanted with Cameron of late, both Hunt and Osborne will now slip off the list in “next leader” surveys… also Hunt had been the answer to the ‘how do you solve a problem like Andrew Lansley’ question, but not any more one would think.

    In the longer term the question in many people’s minds has already become whether to plump for a safe figure from the past (like Hague) or look to a truly Thatcherite (in sex as well as politics) saviour from among the 2010 intake.

  8. @ Nick P

    …will your righteous anger shift vote intention?
    ——————-
    It might do. I will contact my friends in the Scottish Labour Party & exhort them to call for a full inquiry. Perhaps, in due course, we will see a polling question asking (in a similar frame to the ComRes about JH): Should Alex Salmond resign?
    8-)

  9. BILLY BOB

    @”Hunt had been the answer to the ‘how do you solve a problem like Andrew Lansley’ question,”

    Apart from Press speculation-who says?

    I very much doubt it.

    Anyway-there isn’t an “Andrew Lansley question” .

  10. Colin

    re: Alan Lansley question

    What gun to use to shoot him perhaps?

  11. If the Murdoch connection does deliver some swing from SNP to Lab in Scotland, then all we need is for Ken to find a way to beat Boris in London and May 3 looks like a meltdown for the Coalition.

    But those are two biggish Ifs.

    I think personally that Ed M is playing things well. The economy will be around for a while, Levenson is a gift that is giving just at the moment.

  12. BILLY BOB…………In your previous comment you could perhaps replace the word, ‘ sex ‘ with the word, ‘ gender ‘. The idea of Thatcherite sex could be misconstrued. :-)

  13. KEN

    @”Thatcherite sex”

    Not for turning ??

  14. What is this I read on http://www.politicshome.com by Patrick O’Flynn:
    “Wow, latest YouGov poll apparently has Labour 60% in the north with Tories on 17% and UKIP 10% in 3rd. A massacre for coalition.”
    Does he know something we don’t?

  15. I wish the Scottish newspapers would be more critical. As dire a shape as the UK papers are at the moment, you have to admit that they keep the UK Government more in check than would otherwise be the case.

    Hunt has (in my opinion) acted inappropriately, and should resign, but he’s a small fry. The head of a Scottish party has nuzzled up to the media for support, and is saying outrageous things, and they’re letting him get away with it!

    Scottish media don’t have the balls to lay into Salmond properly, and there’s a lot of questions I want answered. When will Salmond publish his dealings with NI? When will the UK media give a damn enough to pressure him into it?

  16. @chrislane1945

    Almost every web browser has the ability to protect you and your privacy…

    you need to learn about the browser that you are using… nothing more

  17. Aberdaberdoo – those are figures from Thursday’s poll. (And needless to say all the usual caveats about how you should essentially ignore the regional cross-breaks in standard VI polls apply.)

  18. @BAZSC (1.13)

    “I look forward to seeing a rump break off that I can vote for”

    BAZSC,
    You and me both. I can’t believe that the left wing of the party have not either brought a vote of no confidence in Clegg, Laws, Alexander or alternatively have not threatened to reform the SDP or some other such party. In the meantime I remain homeless.

  19. Just had an interesting experience with ‘Any Questions’-I got thrrough to a researcher and made my point abt Hunt ,which was to do with how thousands of cllrs. act in a quasi-judicial way every week and that the advice is clear and un-equivoca,l one must be Caesar’s wife.Waited patiently all through the ‘Any Answers’ prog and Hunt was not discussed,even though it had been the main area of interest/comment in the main broadcast.
    Self censorship by the Beeb I suspect cos this close to local elections they have to be’ balanced’…and nobody had phoned in supporting the wretched Hunt!

  20. @Ken – “… you could perhaps replace the word, ‘sex‘ with the word, ‘gender‘ ”

    From what I have read many of the Tory faithful are indeed looking for a leader who is ideologically and biologically in the same ball park as Thatcher.

    But omeone with a similar gender identity? Ooh err, it would take a dissertation to answer that one. ;)

  21. O’flynn in the express via PH very interesting on Clegg and LD.

    Basically it is only the top tables of both parties (Cameroonians and orange bookers) who want/ need the coalition to work/ survive the distance.

    Perhaps my May 2010 prediction of coalition fracture late 2013/ early 2014 is optimistic?

    It will be interesting if we are going to get a BJ-KL poll early next week.

  22. This seems an apt moment of humour – http://wondermark.com/782/

  23. @Rob Sheffield

    London YG on Monday.

    It’s Ken’s last hope.

  24. Actually Ken’s last hope will be the actual ballot on May 3.

  25. @scotswaehae You are right, I think. Can you imagine the reaction if Cameron had come out with the same sort of comments as Salmond?

  26. NickP

    “Actually Ken’s last hope will be the actual ballot on May 3.”

    So you don’t believe polls then: what on earth are you doing on this website ?!

    RAF

    Yep- if it follows the recent polls KL is toast.

  27. @Rob Sheffield

    Polls are based on samples, and it is entirely possible that the sample isn’t an accurate representation of the voting electorate – that’s why we have the +/- 3% MOE thing. But that is based on 1) a normal distribution, which may well not apply, and 2) a 95% likelihood measure. So it is possible that the polls may not be reflecting what will actually happen. Ken may be pleasantly surprised come the count.

    Of course possible isn’t the same as probable. Possibly he’ll win, but probably Ken’s toast.

  28. Good Afternoon All, wonderful 15K training beach run done.

    Thank you everyone for the advice about virus or virii protection.

    No wonder my ‘humour’ is lost on some of my sixth formers, a 57 year old’s man attempts at irony.

  29. There has been an update to Electoral Calculus published on 28 April 2012 at

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/

    Labour’s lead over the Conservatives continues to grow. Difficult times for the coalition government were reflected in the five out of the six pollsters who recorded Labour gains, with the exception of ComRes. On average the Labour lead increased by about 3%.

    The most recent polls from the six pollsters who published polls in April are:

    Angus Reid has Con 29, Lab 41, Lib 11
    Populus (Times) has Con 33, Lab 42, Lib 11
    ComRes (Indpt on Sunday; S.Mirror) has Con 34, Lab 40, Lib 11
    ICM (Guardian) has Con 33, Lab 41, Lib 15
    Ipsos-MORI (Evening Standard) has Con 35, Lab 38, Lib 12
    YouGov (Sun) has Con 31, Lab 43, Lib 9

    Overall the average is Con 32 (-2), Lab 41 (+1), Lib 11 (unch).

    The new national prediction is that Labour will have a majority of 96 seats,
    winning 373 seats (up 14 seats since 31 March).

  30. @Rob

    Those average UK figures tally perfectly with Anthony’s.

    As for the Mayoral election polls, I’m hoping (perhaps wrongly), that as Comres is very volatile and Survation a newish entrant, that their Boris +8 findings were either at the extreme end of MOE, or just bad samples.

    I said some time ago (based only on a hunch) that if Lab could get to +15 nationally, then Ken would have a very good chance. We’re not quite tgere yet, but we may get there tonight or early next week.

  31. I think Ken’s going to wriggle and kick and spit and then the votes will be counted and somehow he’ll be Mayor again and nobody will be at all sure how it happened.

    And then the recriminations will really begin at Tory Control.

  32. Not sure if anyone has picked up something that is probably more significant that the Hunt hunt. IDS has told the Times that won’t accept a further £10b in welfare cuts.

    I feel this is a critical moment for the coalition. We had Osborne and Alexander both being very bullish about the need for further austerity, attempting to completely face down any notion that austerity in a recession is a bad tactic. If I’m not mistaken, I also recall that the quoted £10b of additional welfare cuts was announced in the budget, so is a critical part of government financial calculations.

    At the time of the budget there was much speculation that the numbers relating to the cost of the adjustments to the top rate of tax were a little suspect, with many analysts concerned that Osborne’s ‘neutral’ budget could well turn out to be nothing of the kind if the cost of the new 45p rate move proved more expensive than his rather optimistic expectations.

    While a few also commented on the difficulties of banking as yet unidentified welfare savings, I don’t think anyone thought a key member of the cabinet would dig in and resist the measures necessary to make the savings (although in the TV coverage of the budget, the camera’s lingered on IDS when Osborne announced these cuts).

    Many people on here, such as @Colin, flagged up the central role IDS has played in bringing Tory thinking on welfare to a completely new place, and while on the other side we don’t necessarily agree with some of his policies, there is no doubting the motives and honour of IDS.

    Were he to walk in protest at more welfare cuts, the impact this would have on Cameron would be pretty incalculable.

  33. rob s

    The range of those polls looks like this

    Con 29-35%
    Lab 38-43%
    LD 9-15%

    So nobody has Con reaching their old polddrum of 36 (or their 2010 actual vote).

    The slippage doesn’t seem to be related to the economy so much as competence and unfairness. Which means if economic pain starts to really bite that Con score could continue to slide.

  34. I saw that IDS resistance. I don’t think any politicians are honourable so I suspect he sees weakness and wants to exploit it.

    Osborne thinks welfare cuts are “popular”. I think the top rate tax cut makes them untenable, and it looks like IDS agrees with me.

    The truth that NEEDS to be spoken in cabinet (by Cable?) is that growth is what is needed, at practically any cost, not more cuts.

  35. Milliband has been out and about with Ken, campaigning.

    Boris is staying in. Pity he doesn’t get seen with Cameron a few times.

  36. Given the comments about A Salmond above, the local elections in Scotland take on a new importance. Locally we have Murdoch as an issue, trump (the development is a few miles from my ward) and also a local issue of a controversial referendum proposed by A Salmond on a Tax Incremental Funding scheme. Pre-figuring much of what the SNP would like to see in an independence referendum, it had no electoral commission involvement, no statutory framework, and unlimited and huge expenditure on advertising by vested interests to influence the outcome. It resulted in a 52-48 result. On being questioned about the gross inaccuracy of some of the adverts and the uncontrolled nature of the expenditure, the returning officer compared the vote to US republican primaries and the dominance of the super-pacs.
    In a sober article in the Daily Telegraph, Alan Cochrane covered a little of the same ground as Amber but made clear the challenge to all the parties to bring proper accountability to bear. The performance of all the oppositition leaders in the last FMQs will have given him some hope but what can we make of A Salmonds newly-reported plan to use Scottish Government money to install himself in a Pall Mall club to be temporarily named Scotland House durng the Olympics where he will use the same public purse to entertain foreign dignatories, no doubt adopting the same persona Murdoch senior found so”amusing.”
    In his memoirs, the fabulously wealthy Kenneth Clark describes a Salmondesque figure as “a friend. Well not so much a friend, more an objet trouvet”
    The penny is dropping with many Scots. I only hope in time with enough of them for my election this week!

  37. ALEC

    I certainly agree that IDS is central to this coalition.

    His welfare reforms -of which the flagship Universal Credit has yet to be rolled out-, together with Gove’s reforms & the NHS reforms are the cornerstones of policy ( outside of fiscal & economic policy)

    So I too found IDS’ comments interesting.

    Coming as they did on the day IDS -the countries most senior Catholic in government,- was also reported to have confirmed that he will be supporting DC’s pledge to introduce equal civil marriage for homosexual couples-it indicates what a misunderstood chap IDS can be .

    I was not surprised , though Alec, to see you writing up IDS on further welfare cuts, as apocalyptic.

    I don’t think there is any chance whatsoever of IDS needing to walk-the last time such an event was trailed ( the upfront cost of welfare reform) as a clash with the Treasury, IDS won hands down.

    The BBC reported as follows :-

    “In an interview with the Times, the former Tory leader suggested further savings could be made but stressed the need for a “balance of what we’re trying to achieve”.

    “There is in my view no such thing as an easy target in welfare,” he said. “Some people think there is: until I show them where we spend the money.”

    It will all be settled amicably :-)

    Frankly, I’m inclined to think that the possibilities outlined by RS in the Express article are more significant.
    Tory backbenchers feel that LibDems had a big role in the Budget debacle-and that they are resisting pro-growth relaxations in employment law. Meanwhile Cleggers wanders around proclaiming that Lords reform is vital for the country.

    There are certainly strains in the coalition-but they don’t emanate from IDS.

  38. @Barney

    Where are you standing (so that we cam keep tabs on the result).

    Actuallt it would be a good idea if all UKPR posters who are standing next week.to let.us know where (if AW doesn’t mind).

  39. Amber Star
    @ Nick P

    …will your righteous anger shift vote intention?
    ——————-
    It might do. I will contact my friends in the Scottish Labour Party & exhort them to call for a full inquiry. Perhaps, in due course, we will see a polling question asking (in a similar frame to the ComRes about JH): Should Alex Salmond resign?
    ____

    LOL, you should be on the stage!! :)

  40. Colin

    “It will all be settled amicably”

    Aye. Apparently so. The relationship is clearly chummy. So amicable in fact that negotiations are being conducted via press announcement.

  41. @Colin – “It will all be settled amicably”

    I wouldn’t be so sure. IDS has apparently nearly walked in the past, and this time lets not forget, Osborne has already banked these welfare savings as well as then demanding departments identify a further 5% of cuts as announced after the budget.

    what Osborne has therefore said is that IDS has to go and find these cuts, which is why IDS is firing this off now. I think you need to recognise that this is a broadside from IDS – this is the way ministers communicate with each other, and IDS knows full well how this interview will be interpreted within Downing street.

  42. Raf
    I am standing in Ward 1 Aberdeen, Bucksburn Dyce and Danestone. I am the leader of the Labour group.at the moment.

  43. @Barney

    Ooo small world – I was brought up in Boxy. Good luck :-)

  44. KB
    You are kidding! “Boxy” Authentic! Thanks and thank you to Raf

  45. KB
    You will appreciate the size of these wards. There are just under 20k living in this ward
    The election is by stv and Labour is standing 2 candidates in a 4 member ward. To maximixe chances of getting 2 elected we must try to equalise the vote.. which means taking a chance of being eliminated. The SNP are standing 3 candidates, the Lib Dems, Toreis and Greens 1 each and one independent. Last time 2 Lib Dems were elected, one SNP and.. me.

  46. The unique Peter Spencer, Sky News Political Correspondent, on the propects of JH surviving the media storm:

    “If I had to put my shirt on it, I’d make sure I picked one where the cuffs were already well frayed” :)

  47. @Colin/Rob S

    You can’t surely be taking the views of Patrick O’Flynn seriously, can you? For my sins, and I will be surely punished for them in a later life, I quite often buy the Express on a Saturday, mainly because of its rather good TV Guide and Puzzles page. I do occasionally scan the other content and it’s not difficult to see why its circulation is in free-fall. If you can get past the hilarious Richard and Judy column without collapsing into paroxysms of uncontrollable laughter and also the Letters page, guaranteed to contain at least one letter advocating the reintroduction of public birching, then you can always rely on the O’Flynn column for its services to comedy. In summary, it’s the most ludicrous and risible Farage-lite drivel this side of the Dandy.

    So he thinks the Coalition will collapse and the nasty and two-faced Lib Dems are preventing a full blooded Tory Government from restoring the country to its once glorious past, does he? Well, knock me down with a feather. I wouldn’t take the blindest bit of notice of anything the absurd little man writes. If you want to read nonsense like that, I suggest Simon Heffer; far more erudite and amusing. Bonkers, yes, but readable bonkers unlike O’Flynn!!

  48. @ Allan Christie

    LOL, you should be on the stage!!
    ————————-
    I’m not sure what you mean by that. Would you care to elaborate?
    8-)

  49. Apparently no.10 is indicating that there may now be an inquiry into whether Jeremy Hunt broke the ministerial code.

    Has Steve Hilton leaving for the states, affected the quality of decisions being made in Downing Street ?

  50. STYG – lab 40, con 29, LD 11, UKIP 10

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