Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 43%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 9%. The twelve point lead is becoming fairly typical of the sort of figure we’re seeing from YouGov, but it’s worth noting that the 31% is the lowest that YouGov have shown for the Conservatives since the general election.

There is also a Survation poll on the London mayoral election in tomorrow’s Telegraph. It has first preference figures of JOHNSON 42%, LIVINGSTONE 31%, PADDICK 10%, WEBB 5%, JONES 4%, CORTIGLIA 4%, BENITA 3%. With second preferences re-allocated, the final round works out at JOHNSON 54%, LIVINGSTONE 46% – the same as ComRes showed this morning.


215 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 31, LAB 43, LD 9, UKIP 9”

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  1. Fans of electoral systems may enjoy playing with this for the London Assembly;

    http://survation.com/2012/04/assembly-seat-calculator/

  2. Is minus 41 a record low for approval rate?

  3. Boris is doing us proud, I expect to see his lead increasing as we close in on polling day. The YouGov misery index is not helpful to my karma. :-)

  4. Table says UKIP 8%

  5. Hey Ken, you shouldn’t be too greedy. I am still waiting for that magic 15% red lead so that I can open my bubbly.

  6. Ken screwed in London (to be closer than 8% though)

    Tories screwed in locals.

    My final predictions.

  7. LIZH………..I won’t begrudge you your moment in the sun. :-)

  8. @LIZH

    No. -43 is the record since May 2010.

  9. Boris will be getting the anti Cameron vote from the Tories no doubt which should push him over the line ;)

  10. 31% is the lowest that YouGov have shown for the Conservatives since the general election.

    Aye, the 2005 one.

  11. Thanks Ken & Statgeek. I wonder how the SNP are doing after the spotlight on their leader the last couple of days.

  12. What’s also notable, at least to me, is the Right’s still intact – just split.

    2010 GE
    Con 37%, UKIP 3%, BNP 2% – 42%
    latest poll
    Con 31%, UKIP 9%, BNP 2% – 42%

  13. It looks all over for KL as Mayor: and as a politician- unless he decides to stand for ‘Respect’ in certain inner London constituencies with a particular demographic.

    Curious to see what locals show us on-

    *what happens in Scotland;

    *what happens in London outside Mayoral contest;

    *what happens in terms of UKIP and Green local votes and

    *the Labour lead in the projected national vote compared to recent 10% average lead in polls.

    Shaping up to be an interesting night.

  14. @CRAIG
    “What’s also notable, at least to me, is the Right’s still intact – just split.”

    Just what we want a split right and an unified left – we will storm in with an OM in 2015.

  15. @Rob Sheffield

    There are no locals in London, other than the Mayor and GLA. London councils are elected every 4 years most recently May 2010, next election will likely be moved to June in 2014 to coincide with the Euros.

  16. @ Craig

    Aye, the 2005 one.
    —————-
    LOL! :-)

  17. Are we reds the only colourful people here. Ken, why are you not in your blue shirt?

  18. And the ‘Left’ is still the same too! Divide and rule is traditionally a right wing tactic but this time it’s working against them!

    Now: LAB 43 %
    LibDem 9% = 52%

    G.E 2010
    LAB 29%
    LD 23%
    = 52%

  19. First time on here folks, so nice to finally be heard (read) instead of just mumbling to myself….
    Anyway I start with a question.
    The sub sets on the London Mayor VI looks really low, some really strange results in Boroughs that clearly will not vote that way. This has to affect the validity of the Poll does it not?
    I just dont see this result, it makes no sense?

  20. I think turn-out in Scotland for the local council elections will be low. We’ve had GE 2010, Holyrood 2011 & now Council 2012.

    There’s much apathy regarding the local elections around these parts. :-(

  21. @AMBER STAR

    How are things in Scotland? Has the weather heated up for Mr. Salmond?

  22. I think that equation is wrong RICHARD.

    The 9% is the LD rump which isn’t “Left”

    So the numbers should read :-

    Labour Left now 43

    Labour Left @ GE 2010
    29 + ( 23-9) + 43

  23. Two juicy bits in the polls are Boris pulling way from the grumpy red and UKIP sharing the main UK Polling heading along with the other main parties plus the Lib/Dems.

  24. @CRAIG “What’s also notable, at least to me, is the Right’s still intact – just split. 2010 GE Con 37%, UKIP 3%, BNP 2% – 42% latest poll Con 31%, UKIP 9%, BNP 2% – 42%”

    In not sure that tells the complete picture,I know many people who now say they’ll vote ukip who are ex labour and lib dem voters because they like their anti eu stance and these I would say are centre-left,saying that I don’t think people like this make up a massive part of ukips vote.

  25. typo:-

    should read 29 + ( 23-9) = 43

    Go Boris -show ’em how to do it. :-)

  26. Craig: What’s also notable, at least to me, is the Right’s still intact – just split.

    2010 GE
    Con 37%, UKIP 3%, BNP 2% – 42%
    latest poll
    Con 31%, UKIP 9%, BNP 2% – 42%
    —————–

    The BNP are left-wing, not right-wing.

  27. Can’t see Ken pulling it round (that’s Livingstone, not our UKPR posting peer above!). Every recent poll has had him behind by large margins apart from the recent YG which now looks like it is an outlier.

    Such a shame Lab didn’t pick a bright, forward looking younger politician with no baggage to run.

  28. Spanish sovereign debt downgraded by S&P on fears of further support need for their banking sector.

  29. @Craig – ehh, not sure why you included the BNP there, other than to goad a response (mission accomplished I guess). I’m sure most people on the right would say the BNP are actually an authoritarian left wing party, and that their voters belong to the disenchanted & disenfranchised left and would not identify themselves as being right wing.

  30. LIZH………..Don’t get too carried away now, my good wishes were not a licence to sound the trumpets of triumph, they were merely serving to illustrate my cuddly side. I think Labour might be peaking too early and, with over 3 yrs to the next election, a touch of humility might be a sensible default option, just in case. :-)

  31. I don’t believe all the empty hype about UKIP being on 9%. It happens all the time before the elections when UKIP are hyped up by the mass media – When the actual elections come the perecentage ends up being much much lower!

  32. Well I think the Libdem ‘Rump’ is left of the Tories and the way some of them talk probably left of Labour too!

    Either way the Left is the same as 2010 and so is the right, the exception is the right are split and we know what happens when support is divided.

  33. Chris Grayling sat with his short straw on BBC Question Time panel.

  34. Ken.

    Who says Labour have peaked?

    Or, to be more accurate, who says the Tories have troughed?

  35. @ROB SHEFFIELD

    “*what happens in Scotland;”

    Predictions are for a low turnout. My experience of such situations is that Labour tend to benefit from low turnouts, more than other parties.

  36. LEFTYLAMPTON……………..Not me ! :-)

  37. @LIZH

    “Has the weather heated up”

    No! f-f-freezing here for the past few days. Lots of wind and rain too. More like February than April.

  38. @ LizH

    How are things in Scotland? Has the weather heated up for Mr. Salmond?
    ————————————–
    Regarding the Sun, I think Salmond has been burned by it. :twisted:

    Rather than a million cybernats rushing to defend Salmond over the Murdoch thing, there has been a stunned silence. Which is very unusual, to say the least.

  39. So Ken will pick up 15% overall in second preferences? How likely is that? It might happen, but it’s not.likely.

    I’m prepared to accept that the polls show an actual boris lead of 5%, which is recoverable. And exaggerating.somewhat some of the minor parties due to the recent London Elects leaflet.

    It’s interesting that while some are saying how objectionable and dislikeable ken is he picks up the most second

    We’ll see. Ken has to be within 3-4% on Monday to stand a chance.

    And Valencia are out of the EL :(

    But as the eternal optimist I am, I still believe it can be done :)

  40. @Either way the Left is the same as 2010 and so is the right, the exception is the right are split and we know what happens when support is divided.”

    Just remember that whilst 13% of 2010 Cons now register as UKIP in this Poll-37% of 2010 LDs are propping up Lab’s 43% right now.

    We don’t yet know how permanent EITHER of those defections is .

  41. What exactly will the tories have to do for Boris to not win this? Ugh. How disappointing. Labour chose a terrible candidate. Had they chosen another, they might have won.

  42. @Ken
    If we get a 15% lead on Saturday, the Blues will be down to 28%. How low do you think they can get?

  43. LIZH……..I’m a Blue, through and through, even my Company livery and logo is blue, and when I see Labour leads in double figures, even the air around me is blue. :-)

  44. @David Anthony

    The candidate who would have made the best mayor. Maybe i’m old fashioned. But I believe policy should prevail.

  45. @Mr Bubbles
    I wasn’t goading any response, actually. I think everyone but deluded rightists accept the BNP are far-right, and when Yougov have taken the trouble to poll them, they’ve found their next home/next preference is UKIP (I suppose you’ll admit they’re Right?) and then Tory > over Labour or any of the other left alternatives.

    Of course, the Right has now essentially been co-opted by neoliberals (and the same’s true of the Left, but to a much lesser degree), to the point where they seem to regard any party which
    1) includes a welfare state/support to the working class in an economy
    2) regulate business/the market in anyway shape or form 3) show a want to halt globalisation

    to be a left-wing entity. Sorry, it’s ahistorical and completely inane, no matter how many times you repeat it.

  46. So three polls within a few days show Ken on 31, 36 and 42%. This is a very wide range. Much wider than Boris’s range. All three polls can’t be right about Ken’s support. A 11% gap is a wide variation!

  47. That goes for Crotale as well. :roll:

  48. I can`t believe that Ken would only receive 31% of first preference votes…And my feeling is most of the reds who think that another Labour candidate would have it wrapped it haven`t experienced governance under Ken which is one of his main positives…He could have done without the recent exposures but the former is what will help him get over the line

  49. @ ThameSideMark

    Hello & welcome to UKPR from one of the regulars. We always like to see new people comment.

    At the foot of the page is a link to “Regional Crossbreaks Again”, in which Anthony Wells discusses the topic which you raise in your comment.
    8-)

  50. LIZH………….How low can we get ? I couldn’t possibly comment, but I am confident that whatever depths we plumb, we can recover……! :-)

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