Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 43%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 9%. The twelve point lead is becoming fairly typical of the sort of figure we’re seeing from YouGov, but it’s worth noting that the 31% is the lowest that YouGov have shown for the Conservatives since the general election.

There is also a Survation poll on the London mayoral election in tomorrow’s Telegraph. It has first preference figures of JOHNSON 42%, LIVINGSTONE 31%, PADDICK 10%, WEBB 5%, JONES 4%, CORTIGLIA 4%, BENITA 3%. With second preferences re-allocated, the final round works out at JOHNSON 54%, LIVINGSTONE 46% – the same as ComRes showed this morning.


215 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 31, LAB 43, LD 9, UKIP 9”

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  1. RAF

    Thanks :-)

  2. @Smukesh

    “But last I looked the Saudis haven`t converted and are still governed by a king”

    In theory an “Islamic” Kingdom is possible as Islam does not prevent it. However, calling the Saudi Kingdom “Islamic” is a bit of a joke.

    The general point is that if you have to embellish your country with an epithet (or several), it’s probably untrue.

  3. Hopefully Anthony is making some money from the adverts also.

    It can be damm time consuming running a website that many of us wouldnt have the time or effort to do.

  4. @Bluebob

    Or ability.

    I agree. He should be making money from it.

  5. “Lord Justice Leveson has rebuffed the government by making clear it was not his inquiry’s role to rule if the culture secretary, Jeremy Hunt, has breached the ministerial code by his handling of the News Corp bid for BSkyB.”

    Well. There’s a shock (not). I maligned his Lordship last night but it appears he is clear on his mandate.

    Now what will Cameron do? Every day he does nothing screams guilt.

  6. Do we know if there any polls due this weekend?

  7. @Nick P

    One suspects that the whole Hunt business has made Levenson’s position more tricky than he would like.

    Gary Gibbon has been blogging all this week from Inquiry:

    “There was a tantalising moment earlier when the inquiry QC seemed to be asking the “grand deal” question which is argued by Peter Oborne in today’s [Thursday’s] Telegraph. Were Jeremy Hunt’s visit to News Corp HQ in New York – just before David Cameron met James Muroch in the UK and The Sun endorsed the Tories in 2009 – connected? Rupert Murdoch didn’t seem to quite get the point, Lord Justice Leveson then interrupted and the whole thing was not returned to. Bizarre.

    It’s emerged that Lord Justice Leveson had a phone chat late Tuesday afternoon with the Cabinet Secretary Sir Jeremy Heywood about how he was intending to deal with the allegations against Jeremy Hunt. There will be much interest in quite what passed between them.”

    h
    ttp://blogs.channel4.com/gary-gibbon-on-politics/

  8. The thing is, you could never prove that Murdoach’s backing was hand-in-hand with downsizing the BBC and waving through the BskyB bid. Murdoch’s team are entitled to lobby.

    Those emails are as bad as you can get though…but there is probably not going to be anything else as baldly writtem dowm.

    But don’t forget, until the sudden and spectacular fall from grace, I suspect that Cameron like most everybody else thought Murdoch was untouchable.

    i remember when Coulson resigned from No 10 disagreeing with Anthony who reckoned that Alan Johnson’s resignation was more significant and that Coulson going might only matter because of the loss of his “common touch”.

    I told you so. (couldn’t resist)

    I still think this has the capacity to bring down the Government, and it’s possible that Levenson is the gun with which Cameron is going to shoot himself.

  9. Is it possible that Lord Leveson never intended to become an adjudicator on Hunt but was persuaded to put out a statement on Wednesday morning urging caution and about hearing both sides of the story, just as cover for PMQ`s and Hunt`s HOC appearance.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/leveson-inquiry/9225707/Lord-Leveson-calls-for-calm-over-Jeremy-Hunts-email-links-to-News-Corporation.html

  10. RAF

    “The general point is that if you have to embellish your country with an epithet (or several), it’s probably untrue.”

    Are you trying to say that the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea isn’t Democratic, the peoples OR a republic?

  11. @Alan

    “Are you trying to say that the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea isn’t Democratic, the peoples OR a republic”

    Quite so :)

  12. The Hunt story appears to be transforming into that of Cameron refusing to hold an inquiry. A collapse in confidence of the PM to uphold the rules of parliament is… well, let’s just say Conservatives should stop worrying about getting a majority at the next election, and start worrying about holding the party together through a maelstrom.

  13. Colin

    “BIGD
    @” include the recent US stimulus because the economic evidence suggests it worked given their output levels now and the strength of their recovery compared to ours”
    a) Most of their fiscal stimulus was in the form of tax reductions. ( Their monetary stimulus was massive & will have had an effect of some sort)
    b) I think the jury may still be out on the USA economy0have you seen Q1 ?
    Yes I agree that “infrastructure” spend can be beneficial-but it can be a one-off effect with a legacy of useless unused buildings-like olympic stadia, and entertainment venues.
    By the way-you need to factor in the potential effect of bond yield rises as a result of market concern that fiscal tightening is being relaxed. THis factor may or may not arise & willl depend on the country in question , the state of its public finances & its credibility.
    UK DEbt to GDP is 66% and is currently forecast to peak at 76%.
    Assume a proposed fiscal stimulus of 2% of GDP. If this did cause our Gilt Rates to rise by -say 1 % pt-then that pushes the effective cost of the stimulus up to 2.7%”

    You know there’s this theory that pessimists politically lean to the Right and optimists to the Left?

    You’re analysis pessimisticly looks at the downside to a possible stimulus and ignores the possibility of an increase in GDP.

  14. LEFTY

    @”You’re analysis pessimisticly looks at the downside to a possible stimulus and ignores the possibility of an increase in GDP.”

    I posted an analysis upthread ( not mine) which-at minimum- indicates why caution is required when proposing the existence of the “multiplier”.

    Therefore it isn’t pessimism, but realism to consider the possibility that fiscal stimulus might in fact increase nothing much but Total Debt.

    Gordon used to call this sort of approach “prudence”-well he did prior to 2001 :-)

  15. Good Evening, bad chess loss, sad face I am.

    JAYBLANC.
    I THINK that, as TB did in opposition, Labour can now drill away at the Enquiry issue.
    Interesting times.

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