With a week to go ComRes have a new London mayoral poll out this morning showing a more comfortable lead for Boris Johnson, and Brian Paddick being pushed into fourth place. First preference figures with changes from their last poll are JOHNSON 45%(-1), LIVINGSTONE 36%(-5), JONES 6%(+2), PADDICK 5%(-1), BENITA 3%(+3), WEBB 2%(+1), CORTIGLIA 2%(+1). Once second preferences are re-allocated, the projected second round figures are BORIS 54%(+1), LIVINGSTONE 46%(-1).
Unlike the YouGov London poll at the start of the week ComRes are not showing the government’s troubles having any obvious knock-on effect upon Boris support. There is no vast methodological difference between the way ComRes and YouGov are polling the race, and so far their figures have been extremely close to one another, so I expect the difference here is simply down to sample variation, and that the underlying picture is still a small Boris lead. We’ll have a better idea when we get the next YouGov poll on Monday.