ComRes show Boris eight points ahead
With a week to go ComRes have a new London mayoral poll out this morning showing a more comfortable lead for Boris Johnson, and Brian Paddick being pushed into fourth place. First preference figures with changes from their last poll are JOHNSON 45%(-1), LIVINGSTONE 36%(-5), JONES 6%(+2), PADDICK 5%(-1), BENITA 3%(+3), WEBB 2%(+1), CORTIGLIA 2%(+1). Once second preferences are re-allocated, the projected second round figures are BORIS 54%(+1), LIVINGSTONE 46%(-1).
Unlike the YouGov London poll at the start of the week ComRes are not showing the government’s troubles having any obvious knock-on effect upon Boris support. There is no vast methodological difference between the way ComRes and YouGov are polling the race, and so far their figures have been extremely close to one another, so I expect the difference here is simply down to sample variation, and that the underlying picture is still a small Boris lead. We’ll have a better idea when we get the next YouGov poll on Monday.
Full tabs are here.
All the polls in the race so far are here.
As a contributor, ( and for the sake of clarity, I use the word in its broadest sense :-) ) to this brilliant site for several years now, it still intrigues me that the eminently gifted cohort that is its core support, can still reject polls that don’t suit, and embrace polls that do…… Our view of pollsters, as with our political choices, is subjective, and this is reflected in our apparently unsophisticated endorsement of, ‘ characters ‘ I don’t find that a problem, it’s human nature. The stereotypical, ‘ professional ‘ is always a bit of a worry, KL appeals to one subjective audience, BJ to another, but when you look at where the, ‘ suits ‘ have got us, perhaps the Great British public have a developed instinct for, ‘ their ‘ candidate. :-)
I want Boris to win because im a Conservative.
But i more importantly want him to win not because he will be good for london but as Alec pointed out he will be kicking around looking for a seat.
We will then have to put up with the endless drivel from the press about a leadership challenge, not that Boris wants that but since when has that mattered to the press ?
Ken – well done Chelsea and I hope you win the final; although if Newcastle finish 4th it will be a shame they would miss out on Champions League; I say this genuinely as a Boro supporter.
Not sure if being 200 miles away disqualifies me from commenting but I did say 2 weeks or so ago that to me Ken Livingstone was yesterday’s man. Oonagh King would have been no better I think but surely we could have found somone more up to date; they could have been in place a year ago to build a profile.
As per Alex a dip in to some threads in 2008 and 2009 are a reminder that the poster balance is greatly affected by how well each party is doing.
Rest assured I intend to be posting however the polls progress (was that a groan I heard?). Where are Roly and Neil A, we miss you :-)
Why has Max been reprimanded
when all the lefties are allowed to post partisan stuff all the time?
I won’t use this site anymore.
RAF, there’s no reason to disbelieve this poll, as it’s in line with other polls for the Mayoralty.
What’s clear is that voters don’t necessarily treat Mayoral candidates as party figures. Popular candidates can outperform their parties (or win as independents). Unpopular candidates underperform their parties.
It’s similar to elections in the US. When Nixon won a landslide in 1972, and Reagan in 1984, there were Democratic Governors, Senators, and Congressmen who also won by landslides, in States that the Republican Presidents carried easily.
@Ken
You must have had a great night! :-)
Whatever was Terry thinking of? :-(
JIM JAM………Thanks for your good wishes for my team. You have every right to comment on the London Mayoral contest, it’s a classic, 2 bruisers knocking lumps off each other, in order to preside over, ( in my opinion ) the worlds most diverse and dynamic Capital. My choice of course, is the one from the Blue corner…….’ Old Etonian toff, BoJo ‘ In the Red corner we have, ‘ Man ‘o the people Ken ‘. No chance of a fair fight though, with no gouging, biting, or low blows.
My guess is a points win for the ‘Toff’, neither contestant has a knockout punch. :-)
VALERIE……….We had a wonderful night, the Spanish hospitality was superb, to the extent of gifting us the game.
We had arranged to meet some London based Spanish bankers at their favorite tapas bar, great call, the food and drink were exceptional, and the locals were very fair in their assessment of the result.
John Terry has form, and bizarrely we played better with him off, but when Fernando netted, at the end, everyone was very forgiving…….! Roll on Munich, Reds vs Blues again, what is it about these colours. :-)
That fourth place for yellows is a disaster
OK, I’m getting a real pasting today for casting into question the reliability of this poll.
Here’sthe scientific part of my reasoning. Look at the difference in samples between this one and the YG a few days ago.
1. You Gov
Unweighted: Boris: 592 Ken 596
Weighted: Boris: 587 Ken 614
2. Comres:
Unweighted: Boris 441 Ken 307
Weighted: Boris 397 Ken 355
The two pollsters samples are too different to make a comparison. And it’s not just that Comres has a more pro-Boris sample, but that they also weight in favour of Boris whereas You Gov weight in favour of Ken. I’m not saying one is wrong and one right, we don’t know that yet. But they are too different. You can’t compare Monday’s YG with today’s Comres.
In any event Comres have had problems in the past with their national VI polls, due to their sameples being more Conservative than other polsters (don’t know why). And this seems to be replicated here.
And no matter how Comres adjust their unweighted sample, the numbers are just too stark a contrast to allow for reliability. If they are looking for a wighting of +40 Boris to Ken, then starting with a sample of +130 Boris/Ken is not helpful.