Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 45%, LDEM 8%, Others 15% (including UKIP on 7%), a second thirteen point lead for Labour following on from last Thursday’s. It’s a bigger lead than in ICM’s poll today for methodological reasons that I’ve discussed here many times before (largely how the different pollsters deal with people who say don’t know and adjust figures for how likely people say they are to vote) but across the board we are seeing a movement towards Labour.
One interesting thing to note is the difference in UKIP figures between different companies. Some of this is, as I discussed in my post on ComRes’s weekend poll, also down to likelihood to vote and don’t knows, but there does seem to be a significant difference between online and telephone polls on it. All companies polls are showing an increase in UKIP’s support, but online polls are tending to show them a couple of points higher. It is presumably a mode effect of some sort – it could be that people who take part in online polls are more likely to support UKIP, or that the sort of people who agree to take part in phone polls are less likely to support UKIP. Alternatively, it could be an interviewer effect of some sort – that people are less willing to tell a human interviewer that they are supporting a minor party who are not prompted for.