Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 45%, LDEM 8%, Others 15% (including UKIP on 7%), a second thirteen point lead for Labour following on from last Thursday’s. It’s a bigger lead than in ICM’s poll today for methodological reasons that I’ve discussed here many times before (largely how the different pollsters deal with people who say don’t know and adjust figures for how likely people say they are to vote) but across the board we are seeing a movement towards Labour.

One interesting thing to note is the difference in UKIP figures between different companies. Some of this is, as I discussed in my post on ComRes’s weekend poll, also down to likelihood to vote and don’t knows, but there does seem to be a significant difference between online and telephone polls on it. All companies polls are showing an increase in UKIP’s support, but online polls are tending to show them a couple of points higher. It is presumably a mode effect of some sort – it could be that people who take part in online polls are more likely to support UKIP, or that the sort of people who agree to take part in phone polls are less likely to support UKIP. Alternatively, it could be an interviewer effect of some sort – that people are less willing to tell a human interviewer that they are supporting a minor party who are not prompted for.


119 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 32, LAB 45, LDEM 8”

1 2 3
  1. I think I will put my champagne to chill for tonight as we have a good chance of that 15% lead if those being polled today are following the Leveson Inquiry.

  2. Be interesting to see the results of a question along the lines of –

    ” Would you vote lib dem if they ditched clegg and brought down the coalition?”

  3. @REGGIESIDE
    ” Would you vote lib dem if they ditched clegg and brought down the coalition?”

    As an ex-LD voter I would say too little too late. The NHS reforms have done it for the LDs.

  4. Does the Leveson enquiry have a brief to go back before the last GE?

    Is it charged with looking at the Police/Press relationship. ?

  5. LIZH

    What you say is most interesting….I’m still of the view that the rupture in LibDem vote since the election may be one of those generational changes that happen from time to time in politics.

    I remember the last time I said that was February 1974 as I watched the the election results come in and Labour was pushed into third place in constituency after constituency in the South, South West and Thames Valley.

    Equally….one to two polls like swallows do not make an electoral summer….and hard results may prove to be harder to digest…..come 4th May.

  6. The first half hour of [email protected] devoted to Levenson.

    At some point Hunt gave a speech and immediately contacted NI asking for feedback… even the Murdock friendly Peston is aghast at the level of NI access to governrnent officials. One of Peston’s own blogs at the time, suggesting the BSkyB deal would be referred to OffCom, sparked a flurry of enquiries from NI and reassurances from Hiunt.

  7. Times big headline

    MURDOCH DISCUSSED BSYB BID WITH PM

    BBC discussing it but not leading. Peston tweet:

    Murdoch very grumpy at suggestion he trades support of his papers for Tories (or Lab) for help with takeover

    Will the media run with it?

  8. Speaking of telephone polls Ipsos-MORI is out:

    http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/2949/Ipsos-MORIEvening-Standard-Political-Monitor-April-2012.aspx

    Con 35% (-1)
    Lab 38% (+1)
    L/D 12% (+1)
    Nats 5%
    Green 4%
    UKIP 4%
    BNP 1%
    Other 1%

    Based on all absolutely certain to vote so a small sample of 578.

  9. @REGGIESIDE
    ” Would you vote lib dem if they ditched clegg and brought down the coalition?”
    I find myself concurring with LIZH. As a LD voter and former Liberal party member, I feel so badly let down by the current crop of LD MPs that it would take more than simply replacing Nick to get my vote back, but that would be a start.
    I would like to see some sort of acknowledgement, apology, and explanation of their behaviour in government, especially the enthusiastic support for policies that are not related to deficit reduction. I suspect that some LD MPs might choose to go blue or red rather than remain.
    I am uncertain how poor LD polling will translate to losing seats. Tory voters will see them as a better option than labour, and labour voters might still vote tactically even if LDs are seen as tory-lite. I think the biggest threat to LD is if other candidates are seen as a better protest vote, whether this is significant parties like UKIP or Green (or PC, SNP, etc. in other countries), charismatic individuals (Galloway), or protest candidates (e.g. Save the NHS).

  10. the LD’s could just stay in there and take the line at the next GE “we stopped the Tories being quite so nasty” – it’s not much, but it’s an option. (unfortunately, they also helped them do some of the other “nastiness” – best to keep quiet about that)

    I wonder if we are in the territory of a solid double figure lead that all parties want to give them a cushion.
    If not now, maybe when the fuel duty hike comes.

  11. That telephone poll has Lab and Con virtually neck-and-neck.

    Bit different to other polls!

  12. The fieldwork dates for Ipsos-MORI were 21-23 April, so the difference with say the last YouGov isn’t due to timing. It’s partly the ‘certain to vote’ filter, but it only raises Labour to 40% (5% lead) if you take that filter off – see page 3 of the charts:

    http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/April%20Political%20Monitor%202012.PDF

    Incidentally it’s always worth looking at the charts as they include various comparative graphs over time as how various Parties and their leaders have done. Hours of fun for magical psephologists. Incidentally the leader with the best net satisfaction (well least bad) is a certain Mr E Miliband (-18).

  13. With regard to the ipsos/Mori poll could the small sample of size of 578 be the reason for difference of VI to other polls

  14. Sky News has the same as the Times now.

  15. But the Times are switching to Hunt…

    Never realised how quickly headlines changed!

  16. Anthony has a thread up for Ipso Mori.

    I’m copying over Roger’s comments because he gives a little more detail than Anthony does – AW must be busy right now!
    8-)

  17. peewee @ REGGIESIDE

    ”I think the biggest threat to LD is if other candidates are seen as a better protest vote, whether this is significant parties like UKIP or Green (or PC, SNP, etc. in other countries), charismatic individuals (Galloway), or protest candidates (e.g. Save the NHS).”

    That was formerly the SLD’s and is now the SNP’s, winning USP everywhere North of Stirling.

    I expect further SNP vote gains as the laggards catch up with where the leaders have gone, and even from Labour, as some exLibDems (as well as anti-Con Labour voters) realise their 2011 misjudgment in tactical voting for LAB..

    Blame Thatcher, she consolidated the habit of voting against the most hated party. Voting against the Cons is “the setled will of the Scottish people” and they aren’t picky about who they vote for.

    Turning FPTP on its head, the majority of Scots vote against not for any party. The two votes for the Scotish Parliament have certainly taught them to split the vote.

    You can vote for the candidate who will best represent the constituency, and you can either vote for the party Lab/SNP you want to lead the government or give your list vote to one of the others in the hope that their representation will be sufficient to make them coalition partners. That’s what the Greens, and formerly the Socialists too, were hoping for.

    In 2011 the voters turned their sights on the collaborators. Maybe they have only just found their distance, and the real bombardment is still to come.

  18. Another 13-point lead for Labour. Was I stupid to invest in a scheme with exposure to the FTSE 100 Index? This matures in January 2016 (i.e after the next General Election)- and if the Index is more than 20% below its level in January 2011 (when I signed up) I WILL LOSE A GREAT DEAL OF MONEY!!!

    Now, as it looks increasingly like the two Red Eds will be running the country by then- they will tax business and the rich until the pips squeak, and they will borrow lots more money (and unsettle the markets).

    If the big companies making up the FTSE 100 Index are taxed until the pips squeak that will REALLY HURT SHARE PRICES. Moreover, if the British Government is seen as a serious Credit Risk (and we’re pretty close to that as things are now) that will hurt the FTSE 100 Index even more.

    What on earth should I do if Ed Miliband keeps climbing in the polls? There’s nothing I can do about those investments!!!

    Ian Pennell

  19. Jeremy hunts special adviser,adam smith,has resigned

1 2 3