ICM’s monthly poll for the Guardian is out, with topline figures of CON 33%(-4), LAB 41%(+3), LDEM 15%(+2). These changes are from the most recent ICM poll, conducted after the budget for the Sunday Telegraph – the Guardian compare to their last ICM poll, that showed a pre-budget Tory lead, making the turnaround even starker.

I’m on a train at the moment, so will update more fully on this (and tonight’s YouGov poll) later.

97 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – CON 33, LAB 41, LD 15”

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  1. I hate to correct people, but I have to say, if Cameron wanted to shop like an ordinary person, the lowest he’d probably stoop to is Waitrose. Like Tesco, but socially acceptable to shop there. :P

    Us wee poor folk will have to cry into our own-brand hankies a little longer. ;)

    I think the Lab lead might shrink by two or three points tonight, then grow by the same number in a few days.

  2. @RAF
    `Most captains these days are middle order batsmen`

    Shame the captain is slightly `out of touch` :)

  3. ICM with an 8% Labour lead and the the Tories on 33%? Something is indeed stirring in the forest!

    As for the Dorries comments on Cameron and Osborne, I think they are particularly damaging because they come from someone who, whatever you think of her, is an authentic voice of a certain strand of Toryism. I’ve always regarded her as the archetypal female Daily Mail reader who is contemptuous of the blue-blooded and gentrified wing of her party. This is classic Tebbit, white van man territory and it would be silly to dismiss her as a loose canon, lone wolf maverick. I’ve no time for her myself, and think that she’s of a type that led people to label the Tory Party as the “Stupid Party”, but there are a lot more Nadine Dorries around than many Tory intellectuals would like to believe. It’s becoming pretty obvious that Cameron isn’t taking this sizeable part of his party with him.

  4. @Smukesh

    “Shame the captain is slightly `out of touch` :) ”

    He’s certainly.had a run of low scores. But is it just a matter of having played on poor wickets, or of poor technique?

  5. Sun/YouGov poll tonight: CON 32%, LAB 45%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 7%. 2nd Labour 13 point lead in a week – joint biggest since Blair

  6. Apparentyl ICMs methodology involves asking the ‘dont knows’ who they voted for for last time – then add 50% of the dont knows to that parties total percentage.
    So if a hundred people who dont know who they will vote for this time, but voted lib dem last time, then ICM adds 50 to the lib dem total.

    Given this, i think its safe to assume that ICMs score for the libdems is artificially high as so many of their voters have deserted them since the election.

    Cant see those ‘dont knows’ going to the tories either.

  7. @Big John

    Thanks for that. Another Lab 45 too.

  8. I took a bit of stick on these pages for saying that I thought DC should have apologised to Nadine Dorries immediately after his faux pas. It may have been accidental but he milked it, instead of immediately saying: “I didn’t mean it like that; I’m sorry”.

    Well, it’s certainly come back to bite him, if he’s having to peruse supermarket till receipts as part of his daily briefing notes.

  9. You have to admit it’s getting better, better all the time.

  10. @ Big John

    Did somebody tweet the YG because it isn’t up on their site yet?

    Thanks :-)

  11. @Amber

    You said “…Won’t it be romantic (politically speaking), if Nadine Dorries is no longer “frustrated” thanks to the attentions of Nigel Farange?…”


    Regards, Martyn

  12. Latest YouGov/The Sun results 23rd April CON 32%, LAB 45%, LD 8%; APP -40

  13. @Amber yes they have tweeted
    Update – Labour lead on 13: Latest YouGov/The Sun results 2rd April CON 32%, LAB 45%, LD 8%; APP -40 y-g.co/Izk3vG

  14. 32, 45, 8. Approval=-40.

  15. @ Martyn

    LOL :-)

  16. -40? Wow. Have we ever seen it that low before?

  17. We got told not to get excited about the last 13% lead. Can we get a little bit excited now, do you think? :-)

  18. http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/ao1lv6nedo/YG-Archives-Pol-Sun-results-230412.pdf

    I was right about a 13% Labour lead.

    Think we could see a peek 15% lead, sometime this week.

  19. Lab on 45…that’s a 5% lead over the Coalition parties ADDED TOGETHER

  20. @ Top Hat

    One time already, it was -40.

    Blair’s worst -43

    Labour’s worst ever -57 because of the crash & ensuing recession.

  21. Tonight’s YouGov, coming as it does after a multiplicity of polls pointing to a 10%+ Labour lead leads me to believe that something big and significant has gone on in the last three weeks, something that might well be a turning point in this Parliament. For the first time since the formation of the Coalition, the Tory VI share is melting away before our very eyes.

    What an extraordinary turn of events since Cameron’s EU Veto took the Tories into a lead in December last year. It suggests to me that the real problem for the Government is that they are regularly inviting ridicule and that’s a commodity much more politically lethal than unpopularity or even dislike. The sound of laughter is akin to a death knell in politics and I’m starting to hear it now in offices, pubs and on the doorsteps whenever this Coalition is mentioned.

    Worrying times for the Coalition and it may well be that their eventual fate is inextricably wrapped up in how Miliband now performs. If Labour can catch the mood and move the narrative away from their supposed blame for all our existing economic woes, then they may start to get a hearing from the electorate for the first time in 5 or 6 years. If so, 2015 becomes an election that is theirs to lose rather than the predicted coronation for Cameron and Clegg from a generous nation!

  22. If these results were repeated in a General Election with the current boundaries, the Lib Dems would win 15 seats. If they were repeated in the General Election with the proposed boundaries, the Lib Dems would win 6 seats. Never mind the Lords, that’s the coalition breaking deal as I see it.

  23. If we get to 15% lead tomorrow, can we all have a celebratory drink together at 10:10?

  24. Hardly surprising, even I am beginning to think that Cammo must be a serial mirror breaker, anyway, it’s all, ‘tittle tattle’ in the words of the great Mandy. Plenty of time to recover, and I’m off to Barcelona in the morning. :-)

  25. If even ICM have Labour 8% ahead, things don’t look too good for the Tories or Lib Dems. This is a real chance for Labour & it’s important that it isn’t wasted

  26. @AW Might need to check one figure.

    Mid & Wales:

    SNP/PCY: 2
    Green: 0

    Wonder if that’s round the wrong way?

  27. A year ago with ICM 17th April.
    C = 35, LAB = 37 and LD = 15.

    No recovery for the LDs compared to last year then, an election where they lost 40% of the seats they were defending. C’s down 2% and LAB up 4%

  28. @TOP HAT…no big news that -40.

    31/03: -40
    02/04: -43
    04/04: -42
    05/04: -40
    16/04: -40
    23/04: -40

    Regular stat. :)

  29. @AW…forget my post on SNP/PCY – I had a thicko moment.

  30. Crosstabs only, but C2DEs: Con 25%, Lab 50%.

    Also the regional breaks suggest that even if you add the entirety of UKIP VI to Con… all it does is increase the Tory lead in the rest of the South – it does not pull them back into contention elsewhere.

  31. That is a scary lead, slightly surprised to see it again, thought we would see some tailing off to just under 10% by now. DC really needs to get a grip on things, possibly have a reshuffle. It’s just that the last Conservative PM kept on trying to get a grip, and, well, we know how that turned out.

  32. I suspect that “posh boy who doesn’t know the price of milk” is Cameron’s “something of the night” moment. It’ll stick because it resonates with what people think. Unfair, of course – no-one can be summed up in one phrase – but no-one said that politics was fair.

    Does it mean that he’ll lose the next election? Not necessarily – but I do think that it neatly sums up the last month and that the views of voters have shifted in a significant way.

  33. Crossbat,I think that EMs quiet,serious approach is
    paying dividends.This constant flurry of activity,ill thought
    through policies and constant U turns is causing damage
    to the goverment.Ropes and hanging comes to mind.

  34. Good Evening all.
    In froma short run, knee sore.

    KEN, Good Luck to your blues- in the footy.
    LIZ H: where?

    why are the lib dems still doing so well in the polls?

    On another linked matter, radio 4 news has done a long slot on the policy of retrenchment in europe

  35. @CHRISLANE1945
    “LIZ H: where?”

    In our own homes in front of the computer but together in spirit.

  36. ICM and tonights YG: at this rate it is shaping up to be the best council performance for Labour in decades.

    No wonder CCHQ is hanging onto London Mayoral election.

    18 months till the coalition breaks apart- though possibly with the 19th century liberals staying on and giving Dave a Maastricht era majority…

  37. What next?

    Double dip?

    Ken gains London?

    If Clegg tries to get his MPs to vote through the new boundaries he should probably be taken off duties as unfit.

  38. I think it will be some time before the Cons get over 35% in UKPR Average but for Labour to raise it hopes of an OM we need this down to less than 30% for 6 months or more.
    Still very encouraging for Labour but we still need to spend the next 12-24 months after the locals developing our narrative with a small number of policies ready to launch policy more widely after the 2014 Budget with further announcements in that Autumns conference.

  39. I was observing Cameron today as he led the “fightback” from his recent woes and allowed Nick Robinson, amongst others, to accompany on a number of choreographed visits and public outings. I also saw the recent Tory PPB which was almost entirely devoted to Cameron. What occurs to me about him is two things. Firstly, he’s evidently a decent and well meaning man with some obvious political gifts and I also get the impression that he thoroughly enjoys being Prime Minister, rather like the keen-to-please schoolboy who becomes Head Prefect. Secondly, and I think this must be a worry for his admirers, he seems utterly devoid of gravitas and lacking in the Clinton and Blair genius for connecting with ordinary members of the public. His efforts to do so are almost wince-inducing.

    Leaving aside whispers about his grasp of detail and his dilettante style of leadership and I’m left with my first thoughts about him when he first emerged as Tory leader. Likeable man and a talented politician, but we’re not in the company of greatness here, not by a long way. I don’t sense a Thatcher or Blair at all, not even a Wilson, Callaghan or Heath to be honest. In that respect, Miliband may well be a lucky man.

  40. CHRISLANE1945………..Thanks, I’ll be the one on the right wearing the Maggie mask. :-)

  41. @Martyn – I’ve spent year’s in counselling, trying to forget it, but after your intervention regarding Dorres and Farrage, I couldn’t help myself. I went all the back to Major and Currie.


    “18 months till the coalition breaks apart”

    I heard just those words in May 2010. Personally I don’t think it will break apart. The Conservatives won’t go to an early election unless they have a resounding lead, and the Lib Dems will not break off their most successful electoral opportunity in decades.

  43. Doesn’t this essentially guarantee Coalition break-up if the current poll scores seem to continue? Under the proposed boundaries, the Liberal Democrats would be essentially reduced to an absolute hardcore rump, possibly the worst result they’ve ever recorded. I can’t see Clegg forcing them to do that, I don’t think he has the political capital. There’d be a backbench revolution. So, there’s two options – the Liberal Democrats defy the Government and the Coalition disintegrates, or the backbench Liberal Democrats defy the leadership team, and the party splits, with the Orange Book section forming an electoral alliance with the Conservatives in return for sustaining their majority until 2015.

    I’d appreciate a current Liberal Democrat’s input on this, if there are any around. Despite my colours, I’m an ex-Lib Dem, so I’d be interested to hear what a current Lib Dem thinks.

  44. @Jim Jam – “…but for Labour to raise it hopes of an OM we need this down to less than 30% for 6 months or more…”

    I never get this. All you need for an OM is to get a few points ahead for 24 hours or so on polling day. Why be so mechanistic about polls? Nothing that’s ever happened hasn’t happened for a first time once, and I really think it’s pointless assuming patterns in politics always repeat themselves. The simple fact is we really haven’t a clue where Labour need to be now to win an election in three years time.

  45. new thread

  46. @statgeek

    “The Conservatives won’t go to an early election unless they have a resounding lead, and the Lib Dems will not break off their most successful electoral opportunity in decades.”

    I kind of agree to a up to a point…

    I think there will be a time when self preservation will suddenly take hold and dribs and drabs will start to trickle away, leaving the government benches, of course it will do no good but I do think some will lose their nerve, maybe even a small group 5-6 LD MPs but when it happens it will put pressure on others, it could even be a few Cons MPs defecting to UKIP, that would really put the cat in with the birds….

    Speculation of course


  47. Statgeek

    Not from me you didn’t !

    I have been saying late 2013/ early 2014 since May 2010.

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