I’m out tonight, so this post is written in advance, but tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 45%, LDEM 8% and Others 16% (UKIP are on 7%). A thirteen point Labour lead is the largest any pollster has shown since the election-that-never-was in 2007 and the largest YouGov have shown since they started regular polling in 2002.

Normal caveats apply of course, this week so far we’ve had YouGov poll showing Labour leads of between 9 and 11 points (and Populus, TNS and Angus Reid leads of 9,10 and 12), so a thirteen point lead would not be out of line with an underlying picture of a Labour lead of 10-11 points.


437 Responses to “YouGov show Labour 13 points ahead”

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  1. Over 60s

    32 & 41

    Guess whose got what?

  2. Polldrums ….:-)

  3. When did Lab last hit 45% with yougov? or anybody?

  4. Ukip seem to be falling back to 4th.

  5. NICKP
    Surely a mistake

  6. I did want to say something about date calculations and the Home Secretary and Home Office but I’m a little surprised by this poll….

    I’m also off to play my part ministering to the needs of others but will check here and last thread in case I need to answer anyone. Please don’t think me rude.

    If this poll reflects a moving trend it comes at a poor time for Boris…but eggs and baskets and chickens all come to mind…

    Good night one and all….

  7. SMUKESH and NICK P.
    I agree, a mistake, twice, both the 13% and the 8%, but I may be wrong, and against my own viewpoint, there may be a sea change taking place, very early in the administration’s time.

    J.Murphy.
    Yes Elgar was rc, but also signed the Ulster Covenant I think which signalled a war against the Asquith Government
    Did he write Dream of Gerontius- JH Newman’s poem?

  8. Interesting that UKIP are falling but Tories not gaining the votes back.

  9. blimey.

  10. Two months of utter disaster for ConLib: from Cameron’s horse riding through granny and pasty taxes alongside £40,000 cuts for millionaires through to petrol queues and immolations and now an inability to get rid of islamist fascists.

    It is clearly raising questions over both government competence and also the whole narrative/ paradigm of the government I.e. the very early decision to try and clear the deficit in one parliament and radically alter both state and society.

    As I said in late 2010: I fully expect the Lib Dems to leave this increasingly bedraggled administration by late 2013/ early 2014 after tonkings in the locals of 2012 and 2013 and the realisation that they are on target for the worst yellow performance in a GE since the 1960’s!

    Unfortunately though these large leads won’t last with Ed in charge and (in particularly) with an empty manifesto or- even worse- a leftist policy platform…..so I’ll continue to enjoy these leads- and the appalling incompetence of the government that has created them = they are not a vote for labour but against the government.

  11. Outlier or what?

    Scottish Labour figures for the last six polls:

    41, 36, 28, 36, 30, 47

    SNP

    30, 39, 46, 32, 36, 33

    It’s just as well my data does a bit of outlier avoidance. On one calc the week’s Labour average changed from 34.2 to 36.3, while on the other it remains unchanged (outliers are dumped).

    Yes, I know the Scottish Crossbreak rule, but it would be nice to see the numbers across six polls be within ten points of each other (or even fifteen!).

  12. Remember when certain posters used to argue how the Coalition (Con plus LD) were more popular than Lab? Now they trail by 5% according to this poll…added together. And it was flawed to start with.

    Even with revised boundaries that looks like landslide country already…with more slide to come?

    Can we call an election now please?

  13. 45%

    I am pretty sure YG has NEVER had Labour this high in its 12 year or so history…

  14. In Scotland there is a big lead shown for Labour. I only say this to show that the figures don’t mean anything as there are figures right round the other way in previous days. As others have pointed out, attention on Scotland will focus on Glasgow but those outside Scotland should bear in mind a couple of points. Last time Labour achieved the apparent miracle in this system of getting a majority of seats in Glasgow on a minority of the votes. This was possible partly because Labour had a large number of incumbants standing and partly because the SNP stood too few candidates. Neither factor will be true this time. However for those believing that the “face” or talking head is the crucial factor there can be no doubt that Labour has that advantage in Glasgow. There is a real car-crash youtube of the televised hustings for those who can thole it.
    Of course the Labour leader in Aberdeen is “common (in the derogatory sense)” so what hope him!
    The un-knowables are what turn-out will mean in the first Scottish local elections for many years that do not take place at the same time as another election and what effect on the Labour-SNP battle the possible collapse of the Lib Dems will have.

  15. ROB SHEFFIELD.
    Thank you for a brilliant analysis, again.

    Good Night All.

    An interesting day.

    Labour Men and Women sang ‘England Arise’ on 27 July/28 July in ‘The ’45’ (Old NAT)

  16. @Rob Sheffield
    Then you have a terrible memory!

  17. If UKIP leader Frais Fromage can’t over take the Lib/Dems who are sitting at 8% then he should stand down. The 3rd party in UK politics should be polling around 15% plus!!

  18. There was I thinking 10-11% lead was about Labour ‘s ceiling at this moment. Maybe Abu Qatada makes it an omnishambles with a cherry on top?

    It would be a stonking big landslide with about as many gains as 1997. I dare say that’s probably not the real result we’ll see next time.

  19. Ah AW had already pointed out that this is indeed the highest Labour rating in YG history.

    Excellent!

  20. Hmmm so despite Ed.M. Labour are in the mid-forties and the Tories are in John Major territory. If the fat man with the beard walks and then sues for wrongful arrest will Labour hit 50%?

    Labour must be kicking themselves that they ever let Ken run again, they’d be a shoo-in otherwise. However Labour will be shot of Ken, and Boris will have his eyes on Dave’s job.

    There’ll be Tory and Libdem councillors tonight clearing out their desks thats for sure.

  21. @ Allan Christie
    Give over, the 7-10% required to surpass the Liberals is a brilliant figure for a minor party.

  22. This is getting silly!

    No rose garden for Ed …as victory is beginning to look like a walk in the park.

    I know Cameron had his worst QT so far on Wednesday, but I didn’t reckon on so many people watching!
    :-)

    Seriously though, these polls are now more to do with the underling pressures the normal people out there are having, suffering directly as a result of coalition policies of no growth austerity….. while realising that they are not ‘all in it together’.

    I keep reading from commentators that the Tories have no chance of an OM in 2015 and it will be hung. Hung with who? ….as their won’t be any Lib Dems left to be hung with.

  23. chrislane

    After his third straight victory I think you’ll learn to love EdM…unless he’s started some wars and introduced round the clock surveillance of the populace.

    Which seems unlikely. But it once seemed unlikely that Blair would embrace carpet bombing the way he did.

  24. On the Labour party:

    People keep saying “Labour need to get rid of EdM”, and “Labour need some policies”, but I say why?

    EdM was clearly not as gifted a public speaker as his brother, but as we have seen, things would have possibly been a little more scandalous with DM at the helm, from various foreign office revelations etc

    He’s been getting better steadily, and this lead has given him the breathing space he needs to try and capitalise on his success (or at least, the coalition’s failures), and begin to go on the offensive. He’s miles from where he was just a few months ago, with the PM himself commenting that Lansley’s job was more secure than EdM during the NHS reform furore.

    As to policies, I may be wrong, but it’s hardly unusual for an opposition at this stage to take the same route – few policies, more opposition. Why create policies when the coalition could cherry-pick them, and regain popularity?

    EdM has to work on his prime ministerialness (I totally made that word up, didn’t I?) sure, but first, build a strong group of people around you (which he has been doing – press releases are spread out between various MPs, giving them all a wee bit more recognition), go on the offensive (I think he’s beginning to find his footing here), and take stock of your resources. He’s making progress in England, even London (it’s Ken that’s not as popular as Boris, not Lab vs Con), what he has to do is focus on Scotland and rebuild their core Labour vote.

    A week is a long time in politics, and we’ve got a few years of it yet…

    (obvious caveat – this lead isn’t going to solidify completely, Lab supporters shouldn’t be delusional, but I expect it to settle into a polldrum of around a 6 point lead or so to Labour).

  25. @Rob Sheffield
    Ah AW had already pointed out that this is indeed the highest Labour rating in YG history.

    Excellent!
    Which they were occasionally achieving March last year – that is, if you’re talking about the 45% figure, and not the Labour lead (the latter would make your original comment a tad confusing!).

  26. I wonder if we’ll see 50% for Lab and 30% for Con?

    I think I’ll have a beer.

  27. Statgeek
    “The Scottish cross-break rule”
    It is written on my heart!
    If anyone wants to see above describes Glasgow incident google Glasgow leader flustered. Worth a watch.

  28. Tory vote still in free fall, it’s been dropping like a stone since the start of March. It seems that every pratfall knocks another point or so off their VI – no more benefit of the doubt.

    Are people starting to get their working family tax credit assessments, or is the effect of that still to come?

  29. Scotswhahae
    Correct

  30. “If UKIP leader Frais Fromage can’t over take the Lib/Dems who are sitting at 8% then he should stand down.”

    WTF. He has led the party from figures like 2% to 8% and managed to get it top 3 briefly. Have the greens ever been on 8% or in the top 3?

  31. “Stormy” 1922 Committee meeting tonight.

    Cameron “would be wise to back off” over Lords reform.
    Continuing to “pander” to the LDs over this would lead to “rebellions off the scale with what we have seen so far.”

    h
    ttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9215289/Three-ministerial-aides-could-quit-over-Lords-reform.html

  32. Swing Calculator

    Conservative 219 seats (-87)
    Labour 388 seats (+130)
    Liberal Democrats 19 seats (-38)
    Others 15% 6 seats (-5)
    Northern Ireland 18 seats (nc)

    Labour Majority of 126

    Swing Calculator (2011 PROVISIONAL BOUNDARIES)

    Conservative 210 seats (-96)
    Labour 359 seats (+101)
    Liberal Democrats 9 seats (-48)
    Others 15% 6 seats (-5)
    Northern Ireland 16 seats (nc)

    Labour Majority of 118

  33. @Billy Bob

    Indeed Cameron would be wise to drop lords reform, he’s had an extremely tough 4 weeks, and is losing support as he’s attacking the base. Lords reform is yet another thing Tories don’t want, so if he presses on this, his vi will go further down still.

  34. @Craig

    I was making the same (correct) observation that AW made in his commentary to this thread above.

    I suggest that you make some horlicks and toddle off to bed.

    @Chris Lane

    Bedankt- I call it as I see it and always have: as I have always supported the type of Labour party that- historically- actually wins elections ;-)

  35. Craig and MAX..calm down dears over my UKIP comment!! ;)

    Galloway is on question time…Time to get the pop corn out and sit back for some entertainment!! :)

    BTW I’m not a Green..

  36. Calm down dears! It’s only an opinion poll!

    Usual caveats, as AW says. We’re in a particular firestorm (largely all self inflicted) and I don’t believe Labour really is as popular as in the Blair heyday. It’s the zero sum game – the Tories are looking really shaky, the Lib Dems have been dead in the water for months now, so Labour are on the up. It doesn’t necessarily mean a great deal, so no one should think they know the result of the next election. I said similar things in 2008/9 when the Tories were meant to be dead certs for a huge majority, so I’ll say the same thing now.

    What is really interesting is the draining of confidence in the government’s competence. Cameron said his was going to be the best prepared government ever (‘quietly competent’ I recall) and some here predicted they would be ‘transformational’. Hmmm. Once you become the butt of jokes, it’s extremely hard to get that aura back.

  37. Craig – pedant alert (me) You Guv have tweeked their methodology a tad making this 45% better than last Marchs’
    Lab 45% won’t last but expect Cons to remain under 35% for some considerable time with a conference boost perhaps as an ephemeral exception.
    If the Olympics wont make much difference.

  38. Sorry – Even the Olympics won’t make much difference.

  39. ROB SHEFFIELD
    ” … the whole narrative/ paradigm of the government I.e. the very early decision to try and clear the deficit in one parliament …”
    Surely, the Tories had very little choice but to fall into the Brown/Darling trap in this regard. Labour must have known that, whatever they promised in the run-up to the 2010 GE on the deficit reduction, the Tories would be bound to trump it. So, they promised to “reduce the deficit by half in the next four years” knowing full well that Cameron and Osborne would fall for it and promise something much more attractive.

    Now, promises to “reduce the deficit by half in five and a half years” or “reduce the deficit by 60% in four years” don’t have a memorable ring to them. So what do Cameron and Osborne promise? Surprise, surprise – they promise to reduce the deficit to NIL in four years i.e. twice as good as Labour! Hook, line and sinker!

    As Mervyn King said at the time, the party that would deal with the deficit would be out of power for a generation. I wonder whether he’ll be proved right?

  40. The really good news of course is that we have 3 more years of Dave and George doing what needs to be done to put the country back on track, there will be casualties, but then again there always are. Labour, in my opinion, should be doing better, and would be, with a proper leader, however, 3 years is a long time, and we aren’t that far off the same figures for this time last year. So, enjoy the moment, there is good news all around, savour it, don’t worry about tittle tattle and fluctuating polls, this far away from the real one. :-)

  41. Competence? Telegraph headline:

    “Abu Qatada to walk free in days after May gets the date wrong”

    That’s pretty unequivocable. Unlike the actual story! The press has turned even on its favourites.

    I wonder if it’s revenge for Levenson?

  42. I think Alec, as so often, is right. Labour aren’t loved yet, but the Tories are starting to look pretty silly on a number of issues. Indeed the ECHR cockup since the poll was sampled has added to this further. I’m not surprised by the numbers though.

  43. Barney

    Few things are sadder in politics than a politician who quotes out of context, in order to encourage people to feel sorry for him!

    What a sensitive wee soul you are! :-)

    As to your analysis of the Glasgow situation, you are right to suggest that the 2007 result is a poor basis on which to judge what will happen in a couple of weeks time.

    For those outwith Scotland, the critical aspect of STV elections in multi-member wards is not just the actual electoral support, but the parties’ estimate of their likely support and, therefore, how many candidates to put forward.

    What was surprising about the SLab leader’s launch of their campaign was her claim that the SNP will increase their seats – just because they have slightly increased their number of candidates across Scotland, while Labour have slightly reduced theirs. That’s not how STV works.

    Put forward too many candidates in a ward, and you can split the available vote between them, too few and you don’t maximise the number you can get. For individual councils, the composition of the ruling coalition will depend on how well the parties did their bean counting.

    For a wider implication of political leanings, the interesting thing will be the number of 1st preference votes gained by each party.

  44. @CRAIG
    @Rob Sheffield

    Last time Labour were on 45%:
    YouGov/Sun 2011-08-02 con 36 Lab 45 LibDem 8

    But Can’t find polling data before 2005 to check for a lead of 12%.

  45. Labour under Michael Foot polled at 50% in 1980/81 and look what happened. Disregard mid term polls.

  46. @NickP and Rob Sheffield.

    Labour had a couple of 45% VIs in February and March last year, and once in November, but this is their highest lead.

  47. @KEN

    But this is a polling site!

  48. “Labour under Michael Foot polled at 50% in 1980/81 and look what happened.”

    The SDP?

  49. Ken:

    Normally your Labour should be doing better comments are valid, but on a thread about Labour hitting 45% with a 13 point lead?

  50. But Ken ….

    Your in denial ….The worm has turned.

    I doubt there will be Dave and George around for much longer …………. the 1922 committee will see to that.
    They know already that these two will not recover.

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