I’m out tonight, so this post is written in advance, but tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 45%, LDEM 8% and Others 16% (UKIP are on 7%). A thirteen point Labour lead is the largest any pollster has shown since the election-that-never-was in 2007 and the largest YouGov have shown since they started regular polling in 2002.

Normal caveats apply of course, this week so far we’ve had YouGov poll showing Labour leads of between 9 and 11 points (and Populus, TNS and Angus Reid leads of 9,10 and 12), so a thirteen point lead would not be out of line with an underlying picture of a Labour lead of 10-11 points.


437 Responses to “YouGov show Labour 13 points ahead”

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  1. Bahrain is the main news story of the day. I’m guessing the lead will be down to 8%.

  2. Let’s have a prediction

    Con 30
    Lab 46
    LD 6
    UKIP 9

  3. Mine:

    Con 33
    Lab 42
    LD 9
    UKIP 7

  4. I think a Labour lead of between 9 and 11 points…I am also interested in the leadership ratings with Miliband being slightly more active in the media recently

  5. I think the £10B to IMF will keep the Tory points down to at least current levels. My predictions:

    C: 31
    Lab: 46
    LD: 7
    UKIP: 9

  6. Con 31
    Lab 45
    LD 8
    UKIP 8

    basically the usual random wobbling about without any firm cause, other than general disatisfaction with the government and a bit of left over post-budget blues.

  7. @Michael.Elliott

    Do you remember when Mubarak was in the process of being overthrown, DC went on a trip to Gulf states to sell UK arms to.them to supress popular uprisings.

    How can the Bahrain news help.DC?

  8. ‘Do you remember when Mubarak was in the process of being overthrown, DC went on a trip to Gulf states to sell UK arms to.them to supress popular uprisings.
    How can the Bahrain news help.DC?’

    Easy answer; people have short memories. After all the west funded the Dictators for many years and still funds Bahrain and Israel.

  9. RAF,

    “How can the Bahrain news help.DC?”

    Not in any way that I can see. But with the main focus of attention shifted away from Shambalition politics for a couple of days, I reduced my prediction of the lead by a point or two from what it would otherwise have been.

  10. My prediction

    Lab..42%

    Con..33%

    UKIP..9%

    Greens 7%

    Others 9%

  11. Con 29
    Lab 45
    LD 8
    UKIP 10

    j

  12. Hi all,
    Let’s be labour-optimistic, and assume the coalition parties are in freefall…

    So

    Con 29%
    Lab 46%
    LibDem 6%
    UKIP 9%

    More in hope than expectation ! — but, who knows?
    ________________________________________

    @max — keep on posting, and keep on changing colour. I think your posts are fun…and I am very old.

    andyo

  13. Been out talking to real voters today. if you want to know how bad it is for the Tories take a look at Bramhall Drive in washington, NE38. Canvass returns show Labour leading here by 3 to 1.

  14. Prediction
    Lab 41
    Con 36
    Lib 10
    UKIP 6

  15. By take alook I mean on google street view

  16. Dave M,

    “I mean on google street view”

    Drat! I’ve just booked a flight… :D

    Looks like a predictably Labour area – some of those properties have only one car parked in the driveway!

  17. My prediction

    Lab 43
    Con 31
    LD 8
    UKIP 7

  18. One car tire but that’s because the other three are at work. The one may wheel be a Bently!

  19. @DAVEM
    `Canvass returns show Labour leading here by 3 to 1.`

    But isn`t this Labour heartland?

  20. C-33 L-41 LD-who knows? UKIP-who cares? :twisted:

    My prediction is cautious but I love all my optimistic comrades who predict 14,15,16 point leads… this is how Labour keeps on going when the odds are stacked against us. Collectively, we have an incurable optimism that things can only get better! :-)

  21. @amber

    Yes, we actually DO give a sh*t about our communities
    don’t we. We have solidarity, and a vision of how to make a fairer society.

    best, andyo

  22. “when the odds are stacked against us. …. we have an incurable optimism that things can only get better! ”

    …..and speaking of Ken…:-)

  23. @AMBER STAR

    `Back to about a 6% or 7% lead tonight for Labour?`

    `C-33 L-41 LD-who knows?`

    I see you took the confidence pill in between the two posts
    :)

  24. Lab 43
    Tory 32
    UKip 8
    L Dem 8

  25. Anthony just tweeted tonight’s poll. A Labour lead of 6%

    C: 34
    Lab:40
    LD:11

  26. By the wat that’s ComRes/Ios not YouGov.

  27. My prediction:

    C: 32
    Lab: 46
    LD: 8
    UKIP:8

  28. New Thread with ComRes poll as per LizH

  29. @ Smukesh

    That was my ComRes prediction ;-)

  30. @AMBER STAR

    :)

    Let`s see if you are correct for Youguv

  31. Good evening everybody I hope you are all well.

    As the majority of you who use this thread are Labour supporters, I would greatly appreciate it if you could give me the name of a Labour figure you would have liked to have been Prime Minister.

    You cant include a former Prime Minister obviously and please don’t indlude the Miliband brothers. Either one of could be PM at a future date.

    Let me start. I would have liked to have seen Denis Healey as PM. He is very much plain speaking and never suffered fools gladly. It’s possible he could have won in 1987 (or maybe 83?) and I very much admire him.

    Thank you for your time :)

  32. KYLE DOWNING

    May I suggest you post the same in the next thread already up as traffic on this thread is likely to be low

  33. SMukesh

    Thank you for your suggestion. I have already done so but I appreciate it nonetheless.

  34. I think YouGov often turns out to be pretty accurate,
    but at other times seems to somewhat exaggerate the trend to Labour or Conservative.

    Often when the Conservatives are ahead or level,
    it’s the YouGov polls which are their most favourable poll

    but when Labour moves ahead it seems to exaggerate that aswell.

    It’s probably a bit over harsh on the LDs (although I’m always delighted to see the LDs as low as possible).
    Perhaps the LDs get under-recorded and the leading party exaggerated somewhat.

  35. @ Nick P

    “Don’t be too hard on him. He’s not been Prime Minister before.”

    I don’t think that’s much of an excuse. I mean, basically, you’re spending your time as a leader attacking a private citizen (who isn’t running for your job) for legally avoiding paying the highest tax rates. And it’s kinda lowly to intervene in a mayoral campaign.

  36. YouGov must be Labour’s favourite poll. It seems to show a bigger lead than the others.

  37. chrislane1945 @ JOHN B DICK.

    “And we need a new Beveridge, Keynes, Attlee, Bevin, Ede and Bevan and Morrison in our own time, I think.”

    All that Scotland has to contribute is Richard Lochhead, the Rural Affairs minister.

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